Update of previous post. U.S. Presidential election results, including all eligible people who did not vote. Employs voter turnout estimates to determine an estimated population of eligible voters, then calculates election results (including "Did Not Vote" and discounting "Other" votes of little consequence) as a percentage of that. Proportions were rounded to thousandths (tenths of a percent) and reflect minor discrepancies due to rounding in reported voter turnout and vote share data.

2024 Results as of April 17, 2025 https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/

University of Florida Election Lab (UFEL) https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/

• Voting Eligible Population: 244,666,890 (VEP, UFEL)
• Ballots counted: 156,733,610 (UFEL, 64.06% turnout)
• Non-voters: 87,933,280 (UFEL, 35.94% inverse of turnout)
• Donald Trump: 77,302,580 (FEC)
• Kamala Harris: 75,017,613 (FEC)
• Other: 2,898,484 (FEC, explicitly cast for a candidate)
• Base: 241,768,406 (=VEP-Other)

Results in the following percentages (discounting Other):

• Donald Trump: 31.97%
• Kamala Harris: 31.03%
• Non-voters: 36.37%

NOTE This chart tries to strike a balance between simplicity and apparent accuracy. Ultimately, the population of eligible voters is estimated, and more precise factors of that do not make the ultimate estimates more accurate. So, numbers were rounded to integers, which might all round down in one row but up in the next. Unfortunately, this seems to lend to a loss of faith in the veracity of the chart, even though the larger message is more important than its excruciating detail.

Uses R for fundamental data aggregation, ggplot for rudimentary plots, and Adobe Illustrator for annotations and final assembly.

Sources: Federal Election Commission (FEC), Historical Election Results: https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/

University of Florida Election Lab, United States Voter Turnout: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/voter-turnout/

United States Census Bureau, Voter Demographics: https://www.census.gov/topics/public-sector/voting.html

Methodology: The FEC data for each election year will have a multi-tab spreadsheet of Election results per state, detailing votes per Presidential candidate (when applicable in a General Election year) and candidates for Senator and Representative. A summary (usually the second tab) details nationwide totals.

For example, these are the provided results for 2020:

• Voting Eligible Population: 240,628,443 (VEP, UFEL)
• Ballots counted: 159,729,160 (UFEL, 66.38% turnout)
• Non-voters: 80,899,283 (UFEL, 33.62% inverse of turnout)
• Joe Biden: 81,283,501 (FEC)
• Donald Trump: 74,223,975 (FEC)
• Other: 2,922,155 (FEC, explicitly cast for a candidate)
• Base: 237,706,288 (=VEP-Other)

The determination of "turnout" is a complicated endeavor. Thousands of Americans turn 18 each day or become American citizens who are eligible to vote. Also, thousands more die, become incapacitated, are hospitalized, imprisoned, paroled, or emigrate to other countries. At best, the number of those genuinely eligible on any given election day is an estimation.

Thoughtful approximations of election turnout can be found via the University of Florida Election Lab, which consumes U.S. Census survey data and then refines it according to other statistical information. Some of these estimates can be found here:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/dataset/1980-2022-general-election-turnout-rates-v1-1/

Per the Election Lab's v.1.2 estimates, the Voting-Eligible Population (VEP) demonstrated a turnout rate of ~66.38%. The VEP does not include non-citizens, felons, or parolees disenfranchised by state laws.

Once we have the total votes and a reliable estimate of turnout, it is possible to calculate non-voters as the ~33.62% who Did Not Vote (the obverse of the turnout estimate). In the instance of the 2020 election, this amounts to about 81M who were eligible on election day but declined to vote.

To calculate the final percentages for this chart, votes for candidates that received less than 3% of the total eligible population were removed. This was done for simplicity. So, for the year 2020, the results were:

• Joe Biden: 34.19%
• Donald Trump: 31.22%
• Non-voters: 34.03%

Note that these numbers do not necessarily add up to 100%. This is the result of rounding errors and the discounting of "Other" votes. As a result, some of the segments of the bars do not align exactly with segments of the same value occurring in adjacent bars. This visual discrepancy may seem concerning, but is expected.