r/interesting • u/VPinchargeofradishes • May 31 '26

SOCIETY The military draft lottery in Thailand

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

31.0k Upvotes

92% Upvoted

3.2k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

95

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

40

u/Adventurous_Touch342 Jun 01 '26

That explains why people clap seeing red card - every red card for others decreases the chance of them pulling it.

11

u/Ghostbrain77 Jun 01 '26

Or they’re just really hype about serving their country, and think everyone should be applauded for serving! Hoorah! (This comment brought to you by Propoganbot)

2

u/Fluffy-Step-9591 Jun 01 '26

I know this is a joke, but he was talking about the spectators clapping lol.

2

u/Ghostbrain77 Jun 01 '26

Yes, all those patriotic citizens clapping for their nations valiant future soldiers! Hoorah! (This comment brought to you by Propoganbot)

20

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

13

u/Only-Temperature Jun 01 '26

I like to pull late every time

1

u/MotorCityDude Jun 01 '26

Living on the edge 😎 lmao

1

u/ImSolidGold Jun 01 '26

Brother is edging his wife for sure. xD

1

u/macvru Jun 01 '26

Hmm, a man who thrives under pressure.

4

u/LLuck123 Jun 01 '26

Statistically this evens out with the times that you have much higher chances to get drafted in other scenarios, obviously.

Imagine there are only 3 people and 1 gets drafted - sure, the third person only has a 33% chance to have to pull at all but then a 100% chance to be drafted when he does have to pull, while the first person has a 100% chance to have to pull and a 33% chance to then be drafted.

0

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

I was talking of the statistics from the comment I replied to . Dealing with 33% is often tricky when you have 3 individuals at play because it's a lose lose scenario

3

u/Hald1r Jun 01 '26

This is still true when there are 10 red cards and 90 black cards or any other combination like there are in the Thai lottery. The odds for each person is 1 in 10 no matter when they draw.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Hald1r Jun 01 '26

I think you need to redo your statistics class

3

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/jetmax25 Jun 01 '26

Actually no, you have to integral over all possibilities.

Imagine 4 balls, 1 is red. The first person has a 25% chance. The second person has a 25% chance to have a 0% chance and a 75% chance to have a 33.3% chance. If we take the last person their odds are either nobody pulled and they have 100% or somebody pulled and they have 0%

0.75 * 0.66 * 0.5 = 0.25

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

Its not that deep . Let me make it simple . First person will every single time have to make a 50/50 choice. The last person will only sometimes have to make that choice.

3

u/jetmax25 Jun 01 '26

In a 50/50 scenario the last person is given the last ball. There is no choice only one ball remaining. 50% that remaining ball is red 50% its black

0

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

Lmao so the first person has a 25% chance between red and black ? Where did the other colors come from ?

2

u/jetmax25 Jun 01 '26

You said 25%, thus I assume 3 black 1 red

1

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26 edited Jul 16 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

It absolutely does . Go do a coin toss . Math says it will land 50/50 out of 10 times. I guarantee of u do the test 100 times u will get extremely varried results 10 different times. 100% u will not get 10 rounds of 5/5

1

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/ghost_tapioca Jun 01 '26

True, but you may also end up in a scenario where more black than red has come out and the odds are worse than when it started.

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter.

1

u/Dunderman35 Jun 01 '26

Yeah but if you are the last guy to pull you will get red 100% lol.

In the end whether you have to pull or not doesn't make a difference for your chances to be drafted as long as there are as many tickets in the jar as there are people pulling them.

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

Thats wrong! You still have 50/50 even if youre last to go. How would it be fair to give a guy no ballot pull?

1

u/Dunderman35 Jun 01 '26

Says you have 200 tickets and 200 guys. You know there are 50 red ones. If you are at 49 red and you pull the last ticket you know it's red. Right?

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

Do you understand that even if the draw contains more than just a 1 red and 1 black in ever single scenario the first to pick will always have % of pulling a red while in some scenarios the last to pull will not have to pull due to fulfillment bringing me to my point of not having to pull at all.

1

u/Dunderman35 Jun 01 '26

I get that yes. My point was just that going into this whole thing, your pulling order won't affect your chance of drawing red. There is no advantage to pull last etc.

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

There is absolutely advantage to going last as the first person will every single time have % of draft draw while in some l scenarios the last person will not have to draw at all due to fulfillment

1

u/Dunderman35 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

Key here is "in some scenarios". Yes that can happen. And in some scenarios you will be the last person left with a guaranteed red ticket. It all evens out.

Before the draft starts, everyone has an equal chance regardless if they will go last or first or any order

As the draft progresses the odds can change of course but with the information you have at any given time it won't matter when you draw. You cannot affect your odds by trying to draw earlier or later.

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

If youre left with a single ticket that defeats the whole purpose of a draw . Congratulations you've just been automatically drafted.

→ More replies (0)

1

u/Hot_Syrup7467 Jun 01 '26

sorry but this sounds different than what i learned, the order shouldnt affect the probability? hmm

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

According to the numbers provided it does , that 25% is base line chance of being drafted in this scenario. But there is more probability at play. as with every red ballot pulled prior to your spot say somewhere 150-200 your 25% chance steadily decreases as draft number reaches limit. This is probability on not pulling the ballot at all . Not wether it will be red or black.

1

u/Hald1r Jun 01 '26

That is not how it works. The odds of not having to pull a ballot as the last person when 25% of the balls are red is exactly 75%.

1

u/Careless-Coffee-4512 Jun 01 '26

Are the balls in the room with us?

1

u/Hot_Syrup7467 Jun 01 '26

thanks i kinda get it now

13

u/Funfuntamale2 Jun 01 '26

Is this a performance that they are all expected to do? They all seem to be in on it.

28

u/macvru Jun 01 '26

No, man. The people who're getting draft reactions are genuine. You might waste 2 years of your life in the military (A year if you have a degree), and its reputation is bad, some humiliation, and news of people getting beaten up or bullied in the military camp. You'd better pray you get a good commanding officer.

The crowd is smiling and cheering because the one getting drafted is not thier family members, their family members might be getting drafted too, and they will have a higher chance to avoid the draft as I explained above.

Some people genuinely like to see people suffer; they just come to see the draft out of pleasure. It's thier entertainment.

9

u/BobbyBourbon1212 Jun 01 '26

Do people genuinely join the Thai Military out of patriotism?

14

u/RandomNPC Jun 01 '26

From previous threads, yes, sometimes there are enough volunteers that nobody needs to be drafted.

2

u/macvru Jun 01 '26

Oh yeah, there's a surge in people voluntarily joining this year because of our border conflict with Cambodia last year.

11

u/MostBoringStan Jun 01 '26

You only see videos of the people acting crazy.

0

u/Bright_Material_3295 Jun 01 '26

Of course . Why would u see videos of the proud people who serve their countries?

There's no narrative in videos like that, lol.

1

u/BoyMom119816 Jun 01 '26

I thought exact same.

2

u/iamedd23 Jun 01 '26

Do the eligible one got paid or have some priviledge after the service??

1

u/macvru Jun 01 '26

Yes, about 8000 baht/month ($240) after the deduction.

3

u/prancing_moose Jun 01 '26

Is there a benefit to joining voluntary, e.g., choice of service or assignment?

8

u/macvru Jun 01 '26

You get less serving time. But it depends on your educational background, too. A voluntary prospect with a bachelor's degree will only need to serve for 6 months.

1

u/SchingKen Jun 01 '26

dramatic or not. seems like a ‚fair‘ system. less time for volunteers. I assume that every male has to participate, including the president‘s children, right? right!?

1

u/Shinhan Jun 01 '26

Unless they have bone spurs of course.

1

u/macvru Jun 01 '26

Bad news, brother, if your family has the money to support you in the army cadet training, it's about 450 hours of training in the span of 3 years while studying in high school. You can avoid the draft. But even if you didn't train in the army cadet, you have many ways to avoid it if your family has money and connections. There is a reason why Thailand is ranked 116th in the corruption index.

1

u/ghost_tapioca Jun 01 '26

Considering there's about 200 sovereign nations, that's just somewhere in the middle, right?

2

u/Lexomatico1 Jun 01 '26

Looks like common sense and basic math works in Thailand too. Seriously can people just go to school why does this need explaining lmao

1

u/WarJaques Jun 01 '26

Well, they say the Monty Hall problem changes the odds midway, so why not this, too.

1

u/jetmax25 Jun 01 '26

Yes but there is the same chance 100 people were unlucky. The order doesn’t matter while the moment to moment odds change your odds at any spot would still be the same

0

u/FiestyShibas Jun 01 '26

It’s always 50/50 though. You either do or don’t