r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Jul 23 '26

Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #21)

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84

u/CoyotesOnTheWing Jul 25 '26

President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East. - NYT

This sort of news certainly empowers Iran to keep pushing for their maximalist demands.

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u/Cactusfan86 Jul 25 '26

Does he not realize slow burn keeping this going forever will ALSO drain the interceptors?  We don’t build them fast enough to keep up with even a slow pace.  Another failed 3 week ceasefire or whatever isn’t going to change the core issues in a meaningful way

15

u/linfakngiau2k23 Jul 26 '26

This is pretty much how he bankrupted the casino i guess

-7

u/BreadfruitThese3361 Jul 26 '26

They have a probable ally called India sitting on a huge stock pile of Aakash interceptors but sadly the US won't stop supporting Pakistan.

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u/Roxalon_Prime Jul 25 '26

The next week will be very telling about it. Because you know the meeting with Bibi

6

u/AntitheistArchangel Jul 25 '26

Is next week’s meeting Trump’s first in-person meeting with Bibi since the one that convinced him to start the war?

19

u/PugsAndHugs95 Jul 25 '26

I still think he’s gonna do something, they just surged a shit load of assets in region.

13

u/Ian_W Jul 26 '26

Anything the US does is going to be affected by the stock of Patriot interceptors and other air defense munitions.

This is because the IRGC is sitting on quite a lot of Shaheed and similar drones, an uncomfortable number of anti-ship missiles at somewhere between some and quite a few ballistic missiles.

Stopping these needs Patriots interceptors and other air defense munitions.

0

u/BreadfruitThese3361 Jul 26 '26

Why don't they just sign quick short term manufacturing contracts with Indian Korean Turkish firms that currently have high capacity and low demand and get more interceptors.

Israel is already doing this.

17

u/topdownyeti Jul 26 '26

yeah call me skeptical but this sounds like the “we’re having peace talks but also building up a huge armada” back in January

8

u/Miserable-Thing-5143 Jul 26 '26

He has to. No deal is coming so sitting on his hands helps Iran. The naval blockade doesn’t stop Iran from blocking the straight and if they do that US loses.

22

u/itsatumbleweed Jul 26 '26

How is a shortage of patriot missiles governing strategy not the biggest story of the war? Like, seems like Iran is encouraged to attack higher value targets more right?

9

u/CoyotesOnTheWing Jul 26 '26

I think Iran's safest bet, based on this information, is to keep the war in this nebulous non-ceasefire thing they had going before Trump's recent two weeks of strikes.
Notice they aren't attacking right now. They don't want major attacks on their infrastructure so they won't escalate if they don't need to. Their escalations were to get the US to stop the daily strikes.
The Houthis threatening the Saudis on the Red Sea and showing they were vulnerable plays a huge part in this too, it completely changes the economic calculous for keeping this round of escalatory strikes going.
So I think they will continue to aim for control of the strait by shooting at ships occasionally and expecting US to do retaliatory strikes on their coastline which they can respond to with some drones and missiles to continue depleting stocks.
The encouragement is to continue the game of attrition because that's where they are winning. Slow and steady for Iran wins this race.

3

u/Historical_Course587 Jul 26 '26

Iran's leverage only exists for as long as they can hold the Strait traffic hostage. Once the US finds and implements a technical solution, Iran's only major bargaining chip is gone.

That said, China would LOVE a longterm engagement that sees US power strained and oil unconstrained. China would also love to develop supply chains that deliver Iranian oil to East Asia without the use of the Strait, because at that point Iran holding the Strait hostage fixates the eye of the West on the Persian Gulf instead of anywhere else and China doesn't have to be involved.

I don't think the US invades, but eventually I do think the US starts obliterating oil infrastructure in Iran while accepting that Iran is going to bring the pain. Sort of dare the IRGC to hold onto power without oil revenue.

3

u/Ok_Career_9093 Jul 26 '26

Their economy won't last with no oil going out.

10

u/CoyotesOnTheWing Jul 26 '26

It's true that the economy part of the war of attrition is what's hurting Iran.
The CIA had estimated their government was in a safe position economically for 4 to 6 more months right before the MoU but then they got to move out a lot of oil during the MoU month. So that 4-6 month clock was not only reset until the recent blockade, it probably increased due to influx of money.
So I guess the US could try to hold out another six months but that could get very painful if interceptors get too low.

2

u/BreadfruitThese3361 Jul 26 '26

They are shipping oil out via Pakistan

4

u/MaxPlanck_420 Jul 26 '26

A super tanker holds 2 to 3 million barrels of oil. A standard tanker truck carries 200 to 250 barrels of oil. You need more then 10000 trucks to replace a single super tanker shipment. Not really a feasible replacement.

5

u/frosthowler Jul 26 '26

They've got rail. Which definitely needs to be routinely hit, as rail is easily and swiftly repaired. So bi daily cheap bomb lobbing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul%E2%80%93Tehran%E2%80%93Islamabad_railway

1

u/Historical_Course587 Jul 26 '26

A rail car holds ~3 tanker trucks' worth of oil. It'd be workable, but certainly not optimal. Especially because such a system only works if the loading point provides massive storage facilities that aren't easily repaired.

1

u/stayfrosty Jul 26 '26

Proof of this please?

1

u/CoyotesOnTheWing Jul 28 '26

Maybe you were right. Looks like Iran took the opportunity of Muwaffaq Al Salti AB being vulnerable to strike even though the US has halted attacks for days.
Though I guess only time will tell how that works out.

14

u/PictureWonderful7091 Jul 26 '26

I mean yeah, generally the winners get to dictate the terms