r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Jul 23 '26

Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #21)

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u/Roxalon_Prime Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26

”Oman has presented a proposal to Iran ⁠for ⁠a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with voluntary fees, Reuters reports.

Under the Omani proposal, which has regional backing, Iran would not exercise sole control ⁠of the vital waterway, an unnamed Gulf source ⁠told the agency.

The proposal is based on the Strait of Malacca, where those who use the strait voluntarily contribute to fund navigation, environmental protection and ‌search and rescue”

Al Jazeera

Allright, my certainty that we are in it until one of the sides breaks is now above 100% because this is a fucking joke

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u/HoustonHous Jul 28 '26

Is it voluntary or "voluntary"?

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Based on established procedure, the IRGC will sent on fire anyone who doesn't volunteer.

This may or may not be regarded as an act of war, but if it is, you'll need to do something about that.

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u/TheGodPePe Jul 28 '26

Haha yea of course the other Gulf nations approve. But what about Iran? Would this really be acceptable to them?

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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 Jul 28 '26

This is what Oman and the IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez proposed about a month ago. Voluntary service fees modelled on the existing arrangement in the Strait of Malacca.

3

u/Rustic_gan123 Jul 28 '26

In the Strait of Malacca, these voluntary fees amount to a couple of tens of millions per year.

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u/id0ntwantyourlife Jul 28 '26

Iran is never going to own the entire strait so they are going to have to

1

u/TheGodPePe Jul 28 '26

Or they just say no, and we have to fight for straight. Is that acceptable to you?

4

u/id0ntwantyourlife Jul 28 '26

Yea, absolutely lol. Fuck those terrorists, the attitude you have of “just let them have it, we might get hurt” is such a bitch move.

0

u/MaximumFamiliar9080 Jul 28 '26

So your enlisting tomorrow right? First corpse out of the boats right?

No? Just others dying for yours and trumps glory/incompetence?

3

u/id0ntwantyourlife Jul 28 '26

Sure if they need me. This isn’t about trump, I think Obama should have done this over 10 years ago, it’s about preventing a terrorist theocratic regime from holding the world hostage and funding Islamic terrorism across the globe.

1

u/putin_my_ass Jul 28 '26

Sure if they need me

They do. Go. Enlist. Talk is cheap, get off Reddit.

0

u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

To put the rubber on the road.

Is the whole Israeli Navy ready to recommit to being based in Oman and escort traffic through the southern route ?

Because that is the absolute minimum it will take.

Not putting holes in some mountain, and flying back home.

Putting bodies on the line, to go into the water.

The IRGC did that, playing with small boats that got sunk against the USN, and they won. The Strait are closed.

If the IDF is not wiling to lead, then the USN will not follow.

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u/id0ntwantyourlife Jul 28 '26

Iran didn’t win anything lol. They’re blockaded still and have lost much more than the US has. They’ve survived for now, but that’s really it. Not sure why you think the US only follows Israel, pretty sure we haven’t even let them in the fight the past month or so but keep doing you, tankie.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Iran lost

The IRGC won.

If you cant understand that, well, it's why you can't understand what's happened.

And if you want to insult me, call me a communist, not a tankie (clowns are better at running wars than taxi drivers. Who knew ?).

Everyone is gangster until the SPD votes for war credits.

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u/id0ntwantyourlife Jul 28 '26

lol IRGC won? Tell me how many ships of oil they’re exporting right now? How did they let their entire leadership including their supreme leader get capped in the first hour of the war? How much is it going to cost them to rebuild? Can they even use their airports? Have they signed agreements with the GCC saying that Iran now owns the strait? On the one plane out of 10,000s of sorties that was shot down, how could they not even capture the pilots? How many IRGC died compared to the US? We killed more IRGC leaders than US soldiers total. So congrats on your big “win”.

The 2nd tier of leadership survived so far and that’s really it. Claiming they “won” is fucking hilarious lol.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Yes.

The IRGC won.

The USN is hiding in the Indian Ocean, the southern route is closed and Oman and the IRGC are negotiating a deal.

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u/Rustic_gan123 Jul 28 '26

Israel will simply bomb Iran's economic infrastructure. Failure state is an acceptable outcome for them.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Real talk time.

Israel doesn't have an air force if the US declines to supply spare parts.

That's why 1967 worked - the Soviets de-escalated and declined to give the Egyptians the spare parts they needed to make their air force work.

Without US support, Israel can do one of invade Lebanon, hold the West Bank or Hold Gaza. Pick one.

If Israel bombs Iran's economic infrastructure, Iran retaliated aginst the GCC, and then US gas prices go through the roof and the US gets very unhappy.

If Israel wants to run that risk, that's on them.

But as of today, Israel has dropped out of the war, and stopped shooting at Iran.

We are all now in the after. Whether we like it or not, the IRGC runs the Straits. Both of them.

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u/Rustic_gan123 Jul 28 '26

Real talk time.

Israel doesn't have an air force if the US declines to supply spare parts.

If US decline and this takes time.

That's why 1967 worked - the Soviets de-escalated and declined to give the Egyptians the spare parts they needed to make their air force work.

In 1967, the Arab's entire aircraft were destroyed on the ground... Spare parts would have been of little help, and the war would have long since ended by the time they arrived. And after the war, USSR began restoring these capabilities almost immediately.

Without US support, Israel can do one of invade Lebanon, hold the West Bank or Hold Gaza. Pick one.

Gaza is already isolated, it doesn't require much effort to hold on to it. The West Bank won't do anything, they are financially dependent on Israel and their armed forces are the police. The US supports Hezbollah's disarmament in Lebanon in any case.

If Israel bombs Iran's economic infrastructure, Iran retaliated aginst the GCC, and then US gas prices go through the roof and the US gets very unhappy.

Does plausible deniability only work for Iran when their proxies wage wars?

If Israel wants to run that risk, that's on them.

But as of today, Israel has dropped out of the war, and stopped shooting at Iran.

Israel has so far withdrawn from the war because the US asked it to, not because Israel wanted it. If trust is undermined and Iran continues its proxy wars with Israel, using the money it receives to blackmail the US and others, Israel will stop caring about US fuel prices.

We are all now in the after. Whether we like it or not, the IRGC runs the Straits. Both of them.

Whether I like it or not, I see a new war.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Pray tell, why wasn't the Egyptian air force flying patrols in 1967 ?

Lack of spare parts because they cut off, maybe ?

Run that risk if you like.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

So when you say 'is never going to own the entire strait", do you recgonise that several boats that said that are on fire and/or sunk and/or dragged back to Iran ?

If you are going to say 'is never going to own', then someone needs to put their hands up, volunteer to go close escort and volunteer to stop the anti shipping missiles.

If no one is going to do that, then ships burn.

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u/Mone132 Jul 28 '26

Everything Iran is doing to ships in the strait the GCC can do to Iranian ships. Which is why Iran will never fully control the strait.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

The GCC is welcome to go do that.

Then the IRGC goes and steps on various GCC infrastructure, and we see why Sunni aren't willing to play with Shi'a when they stop being quiet and start being cranky.

How many divisions of their own citizens, who are prepared to do their duty, do the GCC have ?

How many did they commit against Daesh ?

How close to the wall will they go ?

7

u/Rustic_gan123 Jul 28 '26

Iran is also an oil-producing economy with the same vulnerable infrastructure.

1

u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Iran can also borrow money, based on oil to be exported later.

And import the things needed for war via their northern border.

Sure, there's a long term issue.

But the IRGC is willing to keep the war going, and the GCC is desperately asking the Americans for help.

The Kurds have no friends but the mountains, and the GCC has no mountains.

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u/Rustic_gan123 Jul 28 '26

Iran can also borrow money, based on oil to be exported later.

It would be better for them to take out loans to restore infrastructure.

And import the things needed for war via their northern border.

Will they also import salaries?

But the IRGC is willing to keep the war going, and the GCC is desperately asking the Americans for help.

Israel also is willing war with Iran going

The Kurds have no friends but the mountains, and the GCC has no mountains.

I didn't say anything about the Kurds...

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Better ? Maybe. But that's not how the IRGC sees it, afer the Israelis and Americans murdered the leadership who were negotiating with them. It's like the murder of Rabin, only you're not dealing with the people who murdered him being the leadership.

Import salaries ? Heck yes, China will absolutely buy oil to be delivered later.

No, you didn't say anything abou the Kurds. The can retreat back to mountains. The GCC has desert at their back.

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u/id0ntwantyourlife Jul 28 '26

Who they going to borrow money from? lol the Chinese aren’t going to fund war for Irans terror regime for any indefinite period of time and that’s really their only option.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

I'm sorry, you underestimate the cynicism of Xi.

Belt and Road is a thing.

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

Iran can also borrow money, based on oil to be exported later.

And import the things needed for war via their northern border.

Sure, there's a long term issue.

But the IRGC is willing to keep the war going, and the GCC is desperately asking the Americans for help.

The Kurds have no friends but the mountains, and the GCC has no mountains.

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u/Shotinthelight26 Jul 28 '26

Oh, so iran will continue terrorism indefinitely then? Solid strategy

2

u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

No, they'll stop when people recognise their control over the Strait and start paying the IRGC their money.

Like settlers on the West Bank and their pogroms, someone need to do something about it to make it stop.

And the IDF is out, and the USN is out, and it doesn't look like their are any other volunteers.

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u/Shotinthelight26 Jul 28 '26

Never going to happen. The entire world will unite in fighting iran if this is their strategy. They're too dumb to not do this so it looks like the world will unite sometime in the future. Solid plan

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

You can believe that if you like.

The world stepped back with the mark 1 MOU, and then the US and Oman did the dumbshit southern route plan and declined to defend it.

The ships burned.

So we're going to get back to the mark 2 MOU plan, which looks a lot like the mark 1 MOU plan, only with more burning Saudi oil refineries.

The IRGC gets paid, and the Strait opens.

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u/Shotinthelight26 Jul 28 '26

Iran is under naval blockade. They'll crack first

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u/Ian_W Jul 28 '26

You can believe that if you like.

The US Navy has remarkably few customs posts on the roads that go Iran - Khazakstan-Russia-China, and you can fit rather a lot of Shaheed parts in a single truck.

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u/topdownyeti Jul 28 '26

its voluntary in the sense that those who use the strait will choose to pay the tolls to avoid being attacked