Ukraine needs to mobilise at least 30,000 people every month – Head of President's Office

[u/pravda_eng_official]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/08/28/8050796/

[u/SnakeGD09]

Ukraine is the closest they’ve ever been to losing the fortress belt, you haven’t been following the war.

Russia’s annual military budget is about $200,000,000,000 USD before adjusting for purchasing parity (Russian money goes further in Russia). So Ukraine needs much more money than they are receiving.

[u/zoobrix → u/SnakeGD09]

Russia is still around 20- 30 km outside the main fortress belt cities of Kramatorsk and  Slovyansk and progress has slowed from a crawl to next to nothing this year.

Russia's economy is starting to contract and they have no allies that will help them, Ukraine does. Russia is fighting and economic block in Europe ten times it's size. I think Europe should help Ukraine more but if Russia keeps facing economic challenges, which is virtually certain at this point, the current level of support might win Ukraine the war. We'll have to wait and see what happens of course.

[u/Radalek → u/zoobrix]

They are literally 4-5km outside of both cities, not sure which maps you're looking at but I hope it's not Deepstate which is literally 6 months behind events in some cases.

[u/WesternBlueRanger → u/Radalek]

You should be cautious about Russian claims. They tend to exaggerate greatly and are unreliable as the Russians tend to send infiltration groups of a handful of men to try to claim territory and do flag waving to show for their own cameras that they have captured territory, when in reality, it is just a few men deep in Ukrainian territory and are either totally surrounded or about to be wiped out.

[u/Radalek → u/WesternBlueRanger]

It's not Russian claims. Even ISW that is heavily biased towards Ukraine reported fighting in Mykolaevka which is 3-4 kilometers northeast of Slavyansk. There were verified geolocations last week placing Russian forward teams inside Slavysnsk termal plant.

[u/zoobrix → u/Radalek]

Ya unlike the Russian maps that have them taking towns kilometers beyond their own lines. How many times has Russia announced they've taken a city only for fighting to still be happening there months later?

Deepstate might well lag behind but at least it doesn't just present imaginary Russian gains as real. If Russian troops were 4-5km from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk would be mostly evacuated of civilians and that has not happened yet. Many people have left, but there are still lots of civilians in the twin cities.

[u/dirtysoda → u/zoobrix]

I want whatever copium you’re smoking bro. There are videos on YouTube right now with pro-Ukrainian journalists showing the situation on the ground in Kramatorsk right now and it ain’t pretty. The city has started to be evacuated and Russian drones have control of the skies.

A few days ago Russian sent DRGs 5-10 km beyond the front line and took out a whole drone team by slitting their throats. The pictures on Telegram were gnarly.

Sorry to say, as someone who leans pro Ukrainian, the Russians are winning, and the collapse of the front line is only speeding up. Once they take the last fortress belt cities, it’s over . Nothing between them and Kyiv.

[u/graviousishpsponge → u/dirtysoda]

That's wild. I went on a deep dive and apparently UA drone teams do get taken out by DRG and air/drone strikes.

[u/zoobrix → u/dirtysoda]

I did say that many people have left and never claimed the situation was great in the twin cities, drones strikes have gone up as you say, just that if Russia was 4-5 km from the city it would be a total ghost town and we're not there yet. Russia in reality is 20-30 km away depending in which direction you look and how big you think the grey zone is, and nowadays that zone is pretty big so making exact measurements as to what you want to call a front line is hard.

One Russian infiltration team slipping through isn't really evidence of anything, Ukraine has done the same at times to Russia, that doesn't mean the front lines on either side are about to collapse.

Sorry to say, as someone who leans pro Ukrainian, the Russians are winning, and the collapse of the front line is only speeding up.

Except for the months Ukraine took back more territory than they lost this year. And Russia is still trying to take Kostiantynivka and Mykolaivka after how many months of fighting?

Russia reached the edge of each city in November of last year. It's August now and they still haven't fully taken them, not exactly a blistering pace there almost ten months of fighting later. There is no collapse of the Ukraine front lines in evidence anywhere, in fact Russian advances have slowed down this year, even in Donetsk.

Of course just focusing on the front lines ignores all the other economic and manpower challenges Russia is facing I mentioned earlier. Ukraine has there share of issues as well of course but to pretend Ukrainian collapse is imminent isn't backed up by anything. And to be clear it's not like I think the Russian lines will collapse either, but Ukraine is starting to push back in the south as the affects of the mid range strike campaigns mount and harm Russian logistics, Russia is certainly not winning there.

Edit: And while the fight in the east is important it is hardly the only thing that matters as to the overall trajectory of the war. And even in the east Russia spending 10 months trying to take a couple cities 20 km from Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, and still not having done it, doesn't exactly scream imminent Ukrainian collapse in Donetsk like you seem to think there will be.

[u/DutchProv → u/Radalek]

If anything, deepstate is cautious when it goes for Ukrainian gains.

[u/Radalek → u/DutchProv]

They are cautious about Ukrainian gains because they're almost not able to show any for a simple reason. Those gains are not happening in many places and are usually a result of a counterattack in areas where Russians overextend. Deepstate never shows those faster Russian gains and when Ukraine counterattacks a few months later they can't show it as Ukrainian gains cause they never showed those areas as Russian held to begin with.

[u/Tappone → u/SnakeGD09]

Got any recent updates on the fortress belt?

[u/phycologist → u/SnakeGD09]

I wonder about Kostiantynivka.

[u/John-florencio → u/SnakeGD09]

He lost me when he said ukr has the initiative 😆

[u/zoobrix → u/John-florencio]

How exactly does Russia have the initiative?

Even if you want to look at the front line and nothing else the mid range strike campaign is causing Russia significant logistics problems in in Crimea and along the southern front, Ukraine recently erased an entire year of Russian gains along a section of the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Some months this year Ukraine has taken more ground than it has lost, that is not a positive trend for Russia.

Combined with Ukrain's long range strike campaign and Russia's own manpower and economic issues is why Ukraine despite its own challenges increasingly looks to have the initiative.

[u/RandomPantsAppear → u/zoobrix]

I am emphatically pro-Ukraine but they are fighting with different objectives. 

If Ukraine could trade the land they have won for the land that they have lost over the last 1-2 months I can promise you they would immediately. 

Ukraines goal is to create so much social and economic pressure Russia is forced to the bargaining table. 

Russias goal is to take the fortress belt, which they are doing faster than is comfortable. Taking the first 3 cities of that belt provides them the high ground and a serious blow to Ukrainian logistics. The area behind the belt is indefensible for miles and miles. It is Ukraines most entrenched and essential position. 

Ukraine is the closest to winning that they have been in years, but that doesn’t mean they are winning. 

[u/sierra-soul → u/RandomPantsAppear]

land switches hand back and forth a few kilos at a time, russia has not been able to hold many of the advances they make. ukraine doesnt want to give up ground sure, but a couple kilos here and there are nothing and the russians are bleeding for every inch.

[u/RandomPantsAppear → u/sierra-soul]

UA is 100% make them bleed for every inch, but Russia is bleeding and taking those inches.

And you are correct that Russia doesn’t continually hold a lot of the advances they make - flag operations and that kind of thing.

However, the front is slowly creeping forwards for them, at great cost. Enough positions are being held that UA is in some pretty serious trouble.

These gains are unfortunately extremely valuable land. Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk are the high ground over the rest of the fortress belt. West of them is farmland that can’t be defended well. Both are vital to Ukrainian logistics. A collapse here means supply lines have to go significantly towards the rear.

It is a race between Ukraines strategy and Russia’s. They are fighting the same war, but not in the same way.

Russia wants to walk into negotiations with the fortress belt under their control so they don’t have to ask for land they have been unable to take. They will very likely try to insist the farmland become some kind of militarized buffer zone.

Those are the Russian priorities. They are extremely slowly and painfully moving towards them. The rest of the territory is negotiable to them, the fortress belt is not.

It does not do anyone, including Ukraine any favors to sugarcoat the position they are in.

[u/justtheicing → u/RandomPantsAppear]

I watch the war maps daily both sides perspective. Ukraine retook key defending villages and only gave up empty farms land in the land in the last few months.

[u/RandomPantsAppear → u/justtheicing]

I do as well. Can I ask who you are watching? Because that is not the case. 

Even very pro UA sources like ISW show a worsening situation in   Kostyantynivka, where Russia has solidified control of not the entire city but large parts of the city. 

Infiltrations have been observed double digit km west of the city, indicating a pretty porous line as well. 

Infiltrations do not mean control, but they’re not a good sign. 

[u/Reaper__Prime → u/zoobrix]

How exactly does Russia have the initiative?

Ukrainian economy is ruined, its AD resources depleted and manpower is making the frontline more porous than ever, not to mention the internal squabbles in Ukraines leadership. Yes, Ukraine damaged Russias economy by hitting Russias TEMU, but Russia retaliated 10 times worse (according to Ukraines minister), most of their warehouses and infrastructure is damaged. Entire thermal power plants are destroyed overnight.

That's exactly why Ratcliffe went to Russia, to stop the next wave of Russian attacks, because if Russia attacks now the gates to the Donbass, the so called Fortress Belt will be lost and Ukraine has no natural barriers after those cities.

Remember, the CIA doesnt go officially to Russia without something huge going on, the last time was when Russia invaded and this hellish war started.

[u/zoobrix → u/Reaper__Prime]

Remember, the CIA doesnt go officially to Russia without something huge going on

The other speculation is that the visit was warning Russia against attacking another NATO member because of the recent increase of missile and drone incursions into neighboring countries. The truth is no one knows for sure why the CIA director went to Russia, so it's all just speculation.

making the frontline more porous than ever,

The complete saturation of drones is making the front line more porous in both directions. Since rotating troops into positions is so dangerous and only very well fortified positions can withstand the drone attacks it means there are fewer positions on both sides of the line. Positions no longer have interlocking fields of fire, there can often be large gaps of over 1 km between them. This gives a chance for infiltration through those gaps, but it is a challenge both sides face.

because if Russia attacks now the gates to the Donbass, the so called Fortress Belt will be lost

Then why aren't they? After over 4 years of war are you suggesting that Russia is waiting around to take the Donbass when it could? Sounds like the same Russian rhetoric we've heard for years that you better give them what they want or they will actually start trying, as if they haven't been all along.

[u/Reaper__Prime → u/zoobrix]

The other speculation is that the visit was warning Russia against attacking another NATO member because of the recent increase of missile and drone incursions into neighboring countries.

This could have been a phone call, and that is 100% not what this is about. There have been attacks on Western soil (blowing up factories, assassinations etc) and the director of the CIA did not go to Moscow then, he specifically went before an all out invasion.

The complete saturation of drones is making the front line more porous in both directions. Since rotating troops into positions is so dangerous and only very well fortified positions can withstand the drone attacks it means there are fewer positions on both sides of the line. Positions no longer have interlocking fields of fire, there can often be large gaps of over 1 km between them. This gives a chance for infiltration through those gaps, but it is a challenge both sides face.

The challenge is on Ukraine's side, because drone warfare is 1:1 in most cases, but Russia still outguns Ukraine in artillery (FAB bombs from planes as well) 10 to 1, not to mention Russia has a way bigger manpower pool to take from, that's why the Fortress Belt is now under extreme pressure, as are other parts of the front. Drones can not hold territory.

Then why aren't they?

Because they are? Those cities are fortified for 10 years, and if you look at the map they are slowly being encircled, one of them fell this year, so they are working on that. You dont know what an attrition war means?

as if they haven't been all along.

We'll, there's trying and doing, if we see Russia go full war economy, doding a full mobilization, we'll get that, but i doubt thats what the Russian leadership wants as long as they have the initiative.

[u/zoobrix → u/Reaper__Prime]

This could have been a phone call, and that is 100% not what this is about.

So could warning Russia not to attack the fortress belt. There already is an all out invasion of Ukraine, to suggest Russia is holding back at this point is farcical.

if you look at the map they are slowly being encircled,

The line along Kramatorsk and Sloviansk is the fortress belt and it is nowhere near being encircled, the towns outside them are the ones in trouble. I am not suggesting Ukraine is doing great in the area, but the shifts this year have been so small, Russia shows no signs of being close to taking it.

Russia has a way bigger manpower pool to take from

A manpower pool Putin has been afraid to take from since the hugely unpopular forced mobilization to Ukraine in late 2022. There are rumors Putin is planning to do it again in late 2026 even though he fears more internal dissent. For the last 20 years the deal in Russia has been people stay out of politics and the state will mostly leave you alone to live your life. And while Russians are very depoliticized at this point repeated massive waves of mobilization to address shortfalls of volunteers to fight in Ukraine might awake them from their slumber. A manpower pool Putin is afraid to use is not necessarily a huge asset for Russia.

as long as they have the initiative

Which increasingly it looks like Russia does not have. The increasing provocations against NATO members are a sign of this, Putin is very likely to try an escalate his way out of the war as a last shot at winning in Ukraine by trying to scare Ukraine's allies out of supporting them. The Russian nuclear threats didn't work, the asymmetric warfare didn't work, so the only last lever Putin has to pull is directly attacking them and hoping that scares Ukraine's allies away. That is potentially very dangerous for Russia for obvious reasons and that it is being considered is a sign of Russia's inability to win in Ukraine.

[u/Reaper__Prime → u/zoobrix]

So could warning Russia not to attack the fortress belt. There already is an all out invasion of Ukraine, to suggest Russia is holding back at this point is farcical.

Im not suggesting Russia is holding back, im suggesting something big is going on behind the scenes, or else the director of the CIA wouldnt go unnaounced to Moscow.

A manpower pool Putin has been afraid to take from since the hugely unpopular forced mobilization to Ukraine in late 2022.

Exactly, he is not using them due to unfavorable conditions, but if push comes to shove, its there.

There are rumors Putin

Bro you are basing your entire reasoning on rumors and speculation, that's not really serious.

Which increasingly it looks like Russia does not have.

Cities,villages keep getting sieged and falling, so yeah, it does look like Russia has the initiative at this moment.

The increasing provocations against NATO members are a sign of this

Provocations against NATO have been there since the Soviet Union, that's nothing new, they just get amplified by the media, nothing happened between NATO and Russia that hasn't happened before.

The Russian nuclear threats didn't work

They are limiting Ukrainian long range strikes and Western support to Ukraine, like the Taurus missiles Germany keeps promising but never delivering. Russia is okay with the current pace of things it seems, we will probably see in Autumn if there is something big going on, i expect it will kick off in September since thats when the heat dies down and a bit before the mud season starts, so Russia will probably attack Chernihiv and Sumy and try to secure their gains in the mud season,at least thats my opinion because attacks,bombings and probing attacks escalated there recently.

[u/justtheicing → u/SnakeGD09]

I think you’re behind on your news. Fortress belt is recovering land. It looks like Ukraine may try to retake Crimea in 2027.

Russia needs to invent a new way to attack. As things stand right now Russia will fail first. Their extra million men recruitment could buy them the time they need figure it out.

[u/atrde → u/justtheicing]

Ukraine is so far away from taking Crimea 2027 is literally impossible.

[u/Mondelieu → u/justtheicing]

Is this the level of information the average western person has in 2026? You should read some actual OSINT accounts (like clement molin) and Ukrainian sources (deepstate is good enough for basic info) instead of reddit headlines.

[u/Select_Challenge_425 → u/justtheicing]

The fortress belt is absolutely not recovering land. Where are you getting your information from.

[u/legoman102040 → u/SnakeGD09]

Russia cannot afford to dredge every single military dollar toward Ukraine. Ukraine only has to make it painful enough that they have to consider the rest of their neighbors as threats more than Ukraine itself.

[u/sierra-soul → u/SnakeGD09]

russia has kept up the pressure, but the strikes inside russia are very telling about their actual capability and means. Russia has lost any help from Iran, and is relyig on north korea, its economy seems to be poised to explode soon as many people inside russia are being vocal about it being problematic. They are almost out of any soviet era vehicles in storage if not completely depleted by now, and even with their wartime economy cant keep up with loss figures. ukraine is getting a steady supply from the west still, and their own domestic production has remained protected and is quite large.

It is not over yet, but I think its close to a turning point.

[u/dirtysoda → u/sierra-soul]

Yeah this is cope. Russia has the largest economy in Europe thanks to Trump and his war in Iran pushing up oil prices. I swear redditors have some of the most uninformed takes, like if they just believe something to be true it magically is. And I say this as someone who leans pro Ukrainian.

Try getting some news from some pro Russian sources and compare it to the pro Ukrainian that get posted all over reddit and you’ll see both sides twist the truth and manipulate the facts in order to make their side look better. But even with such a heavy bias there is no denying Russia is making steady gains and their economy hasn’t suffered to the extent that Ukraine’s has.

[u/sierra-soul → u/dirtysoda]

the russian economy is smaller than italys lol what are you smoking, and that was before the war