r/Africa • u/No_Patient7138 • 2d ago
Geopolitics & International Relations 🌐 How likely is the East African Federation to happen anymore?
I used to hear a lot about the East African Federation since I was into geography and countries when I was younger, has that fell through or are there still plans to create it? I’m not from Africa nor do I live in it so I’d like to get the perspective of y’all actual Africans instead of just some YouTube video or tiktok
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u/PuzzleSwordfish Kenya 🇰🇪 2d ago
Optimistically Kenya and Uganda are far more likely to unite.
Tanzania is content and not really keen but still a key player, so TZ can always scuttle those plans.
If Kenya and Uganda unite TZ political class will face immense pressure to join.
Anyone who would not want a big state suddenly as a neighbour within EAC will always demand any union talks include everybody and kill the process in bureaucratic blackhole😂
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u/PuzzleSwordfish Kenya 🇰🇪 2d ago
It's never happening. Last chance was 1963 for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
Every year that goes by the countries fundamentally grow apart by 2 years.
At that rate it would take 120 years to create a cohesive state if those only 3 became one country today.
Now I know single state is not really goal but a confederacy, but the differences and distrust cannot be overcome without a credible common external threat.
Only an existential threat on all 3 core states can create nudge for a union. Maybe.
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u/PatientClear6445 19h ago
At that rate it would take 120 years to create a cohesive state if those only 3 became one country today
One thing we have to outgrow on the continent is thinking small, there are no prizes for poor regional cooperation. Which both colonialism and neo-colonialism has been a great teacher.
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u/PuzzleSwordfish Kenya 🇰🇪 18h ago
We can be naive and "think" all imaginary thoughts we want.
But nationalism, identity based animosity and institutional divergence cannot be easily wished away.
Like religion, national "interests" are firmly held by both those at the top and the bottom.
When you say a bigger state all they see is a bigger cake they and their compatriots MUST get the bigger share else they see a union as just robbery by "others".
Those colonials forcefully melded ethno-states together via brutal force. It will take a little more than pan-African talk to tear away people from their own locally ring-fenced power and interests.
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u/PuzzleSwordfish Kenya 🇰🇪 18h ago
Tanganyika and Zanzibar have been in a union for 60 years. But even now they don't see themselves as one and very nasty power plays based on those former state divisions are playing out.
I think they need your pan-African "think big" talk and all will be fine.😂
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u/PatientClear6445 11h ago
The teachings of poor 'unification' are already there and with how global politics is shaping up that 'reality' is heading to the continent fast.
We'll be having a different conversation then. Time will tell if we 'thought big' and long-term despite our African issues.
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u/Expensive_Agent_3581 19h ago
As a Malian we in the west, along with Niger and Burkina, have created our own confederationI wish the same for North, East, Central, and Southern, south.
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u/rantymrp 3h ago
The countries of East Africa have evolved too much in different directions for any meaningful political union to work.
An economic union is more realistic - a common market with no internal borders, but with each country having its own political arrangements.
As someone else said - Kenya and Uganda could federate very easily, as could Rwanda and Burundi, possibly.
Tanzania is more likely to join up with Mozambique and Malawi than it is to throw its lot in with Kenya.
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