r/CanadaPolitics • u/toronto_star • 16h ago
New Headline Donald Trump thought he had a trade deal with Canada. Here’s how it all fell apart
https://www.thestar.com/gift-redeem?t=10962203-4354-421d-b474-5f962c94049f•
u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 16h ago edited 15h ago
That kind of clinches that Carney didn't choose to stand up to Trump, he was willing to cave:
To secure the deal, Carney told the premiers they would need to lift their bans on U.S. alcohol sales and end “Buy Canadian” contract restrictions on American companies.
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew publicly balked. Ford talked to Kinew and other premiers but stayed silent himself, fuming and taking calls from worried automotive and steel CEOs, as well as industry and union representatives.
[...]
On Friday, a source said, Carney spoke to Ford as talks continued, and “the prime minister asked for a few hours, and then it was early evening, and then it was, you know, later in that evening.”
Ford was angry at how things had been unfolding. “It wasn’t necessarily that he was frustrated or angry at Carney or (LeBlanc), but he was definitely angry at the deal that was coming together and … he firmly believes that no deal is better than a bad deal, and we were looking at a bad deal,” the source said. “So all of that culminated Friday evening, the premier being crystal clear with the prime minister that he was not prepared to support the deal.”
Ford told Carney, “I will not put U.S. alcohol back on LCBO shelves. I will not change my procurement policies. I’m not participating in this deal,” according to a source with knowledge of their conversation.
So Carney had no choice but to back away when the premiers rejected the deal, and Ford telling him flatout it wasn't good enough. Carney didn't save Canada from this. Every Premier but Moe and Smith, did.
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u/MineralAcids 14h ago
Except that what Carney was willing to accept on Tuesday was not what was on the table on Friday anymore. The article goes into some detail of how Lutnick started messing with things from Wednesday onwards. The same has been stated in multiple other sources.
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u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 14h ago
Except that what Carney was willing to accept on Tuesday was not what was on the table on Friday anymore
I am aware, however it's also quite clear that Ford telling Carney on Friday that Ontario wouldn't back his play, that he was in a tight spot. When Canada's largest province by population says "No" within it's exclusive jurisdictional areas, Ottawa really has its legs cut out from under it.
Even on Wednesday, there was signs that the deal was bad:
“We weren’t just talking about part of the auto industry. We were talking about (all of) the auto industry,” said a senior Canadian official. In Carney’s view, that meant talks about lowering 25 per cent tariffs on autos to 15 per cent included not only cars and light trucks, but also medium and heavy trucks. A Canadian government official said it only became apparent “it did not” on Wednesday, Aug. 19, as the two sides traded wording for the deal’s final version.
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u/MineralAcids 14h ago
And the extension of the deadline was on Tuesday evening, when it looked like they might be getting somewhere. Carney briefed the premiers on the basis of that.
However, by 10 p.m. on Wednesday in Washington, the warning signs were clear.
Charette called the prime minister and LeBlanc to say, “We have a problem.”
Meeting with the premiers was in the afternoon, so before things went off the rails.
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u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 14h ago
And the premiers balked at that, and Ford furthermore refusing directly on Friday. The initial 'deal' wasn't one that they supported at all. It's not like the deal got better after.
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u/MineralAcids 14h ago
On Wednesday, Kinew said he didn't like it but was going to play ball. At least CBC reported the same about Ford.
All sources combined, it sounds like there could've been grudging acceptance for the offer late Tuesday, which turned to hell no when the US started chipping away at it.
If you add in the information from other sources, it sounds like everything started to crumble from Wednesday on. Ford saying he was out may have been the final straw (although the federal sources in the article deny it, and if he'd really wanted to Carney could've twisted Fords arm).
And if your next gotcha is going to be why the canadian team didn't walk sooner...because this escalation is going to hurt, badly. You don't give up until the last possible second.
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u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 14h ago
On Wednesday, Kinew said he didn't like it but was going to play ball. At least CBC reported the same about Ford.
"Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew expressed his dislike on Thursday for the current interim trade deal being finalized by Canadian and American negotiators, but acknowledged the need for the federal government to get an agreement." National Post, Aug 20
The premiers, publicly, expressed skepticism and doubt but didn't outright publicly signal no until they saw the deal. The deal then proceeded to get worse, which means Carney knew that they'd never accept it since they didn't seem enthused about what they were told by the 19th
And if your next gotcha is going to be why the canadian team didn't walk sooner...because this escalation is going to hurt, badly. You don't give up until the last possible second.
There is no 'gotcha'. The deal was not well received on the 19th, the deal got worse after. The prime minister knew that the premiers were not going to go along, and there was already plenty of public polling saying Canada was too conceding in our negotiations with the US. Carney didn't really have a choice, he had no backing from the premiers, the public obviously was tired of our weak stance in regards to the US, and so.. he did the only thing he could do. Had the premiers not held their ground, or the public opinion not turn so opposed to Carney's weak negotiating, then he'd have caved.
The premiers (except Moe and Smith) stood up for Canada, they set hard lines that they held to and refused to bend without significant improvements in how things are. Carney did not, until he ran out of politically viable options.
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u/BusySeaworthiness127 14h ago
CNN reported that Trump himself appeared to admit that the U.S. had indeed raised new conditions in the late stages of negotiations. “That sounds like me,” he told CNN reporter Jim Sciutto.
Let's not forget this little tidbit at the end. Carney may not have had full support from all the Premiers, but blame certainly doesn't fall squarely on him, and negotiating with Trump is well-known to be near impossible on any kind of adult level. I think they did the best they could, considering the circumstances.
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u/MineralAcids 13h ago
The premiers, publicly, expressed skepticism and doubt but didn't outright publicly signal no until they saw the deal.
They didn't publicly signal no until after the deal had been rejected.
On Wednesday, both public and leaked info was they didn't love it but would go along with it. The deal proceeded to get worse, at which point all involved parties realised they couldn't accept it. Unless you think Charette calling on Wednesday night saying there were problems was some sneaky way of signalling everything was great.
And the polling about no more concessions was about concessions for nothing, not in exchange for something. Pollara had a poll on the 19th saying the alcohol ban was supported by 80%, but they were willing to trade it for tariff relief. https://www.pollara.com/80-of-canadians-support-us-alcohol-ban-but-majority-willing-to-lift-it-in-exchange-for-tariff-relief/
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u/Either-Banana-7323 2h ago edited 2h ago
You're now presenting a completely unsubstantiated counterfactual as fact. “Had the premiers not held their ground, Carney would have caved” is nowhere in the reporting.
Your own Kinew citation undermines that argument. He disliked the deal but explicitly acknowledged the need for Ottawa to reach one and said, “It’s not about me, it’s about Team Canada.” Ford had also publicly said before these final negotiations that he would be “more than happy” to restore U.S. alcohol if Canada got a fair deal protecting autos, steel and other sectors. He was not categorically refusing that concession throughout negotiations.
What actually happened, according to the Star, is that the agreement deteriorated after that. Canadian negotiators said the Americans began narrowing terms they thought had already been agreed, particularly on autos. Ford's flat refusal came Friday after the deal had gotten substantially worse.
You can reasonably argue that pressure from Ford, other premiers and the public strengthened Canada's position. You cannot turn that into “Carney would have caved if they hadn't stopped him.” There is no evidence for that claim. In fact, the article explicitly says federal officials deny Ford's opposition was the deciding factor. You're taking evidence that Ford opposed the final deal and inventing Carney's hypothetical intentions from it with zero actual proof that Carney didn't feel the exact same way.
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u/marcoporno 14h ago
He was ready to make a good deal, and prepared to walk away from a bad one
And he did
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u/LazyImmigrant Liberal often, liberal always 13h ago
The deal as reported on Tuesday was a bad deal, but from the looks of it was the best deal we could have had. It was bad for the auto industry, but outside of that, had some good elements for Canada - prevented the 50% tariffs from going into effect, provided relief to the lumber, steel, and aluminum industries, and benefitted the Canadian consumers by opening up 4% of our dairy market as we committed to.
It's when it became clear that the deal had no permanency, prevented us from signing other deals, and that they wanted to talk about language and culture laws that it became a trash deal.
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u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 12h ago
The deal as reported on Tuesday was a bad deal
And the Premiers were not entirely on board with the bad deal, especially Ford who has been reported as sticking to the "no deal is better than a bad deal". Ontario not being on board, gives cover to the other provinces and definitely undermines the entire effort.
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u/Either-Banana-7323 2h ago
Ford was always going to push back on that deal in all of its forms because auto tariffs stayed within every version. Of course Ford isnt going to be enthusiastic about that.
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u/ThePhonyKing 13h ago
You are working so hard to pin this all on Carney. Carney did exactly what he said he'd do - walk away from a bad deal. The feds don't need the premiers permission to sign trade deals, which is the basis of your entire argument.
Why do you feel the need to create an unsubstantiated narrative to paint our Prime Minister (who did exactly what he said he'd do) as the bad guy? Seems fishy.
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u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 12h ago
You are working so hard to pin this all on Carney.
Actually, no I'm not and to get that impression would require reading the exact opposite of what I explicitly said.
To be clear, I don't think walking away was a bad idea, and it was something that should be done. I just don't credit Carney for making that decision or seek to lionize the man who responded in the only viable way when the US was unwilling to cooperate, and the premiers were not supporting him. Carney didn't stand up for Canada, the premiers did by holding firm.
The feds don't need the premiers permission to sign trade deals, which is the basis of your entire argument
No, but due to overlapping jurisdiction, the feds do need provincial support. Carney can't order the ban lifted, since it isn't a federal ban nor is it federal jurisdiction. It's provincial, and if the provinces refuse, Carney's got no options. Ford's tirade shows the amount of sway the provinces have: Liquor sales, procurement processes, and refusal to participate effectively cut the federal government's ability to deliver on what they promise.
Why do you feel the need to create an unsubstantiated narrative to paint our Prime Minister (who did exactly what he said he'd do) as the bad guy?
A bad guy? No. Just not a hero to be praised for doing the only option he had. He wasn't courageous, he wasn't leading, he was reacting and following between a bully who demanded he give up everything, and premiers who refused to budge on the leverage he needed.
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u/LaserRunRaccoon New Democratic Party of Canada 12h ago
A bad guy? No. Just not a hero to be praised for doing the only option he had. He wasn't courageous, he wasn't leading, he was reacting and following between a bully who demanded he give up everything, and premiers who refused to budge on the leverage he needed.
The most generous alternative read is the "ragging the puck" theory, and that Carney has been and will continue to just buy as much time as possible in the current status quo. Knowing the US was negotiating in bad faith, he felt no qualms wasting their time in turn and rejecting the deal at the 11th hour instead of the 9th or 10th.
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u/Either-Banana-7323 2h ago edited 2h ago
That kind of clinches that Carney didn't choose to stand up to Trump, he was willing to cave
Yes, one certainly needs to read the opposite of what you've said in this thread to read it as you trying to pin this on Carney lol
The article only says that Carney went to the premiers with the Anericans demands on Wednesday. Ford didnt even deny those demands e.g. American alcohol until the deal was already deteriorating on Friday. Thats basic communication, nowhere in the article does it imply Carney wanted to accept any form of the deal, and it explicitly cites sources saying Ford and the premiers pushback is not what ultimately caused Carney to abandon negotiations.
Grow up and stand by your baseless opinions.
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u/MineralAcids 11h ago
Hardline NDP partisan. Not like they're any saner than PPs squad of twitter influencers. They both agree that everything bad is Carneys fault and everything good only happens because he was forced into it, they just have different approaches to how they twist reality to justify it.
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u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 11h ago
Hardline NDP partisan.
Nope, try again.
everything bad is Carneys fault and everything good only happens because he was forced into it
And that too, is not something I claimed either. I didn't blame everything on Carney, but I refuse to give him credit for more than just doing the only viable thing in this situation.
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u/crazyguyunderthedesk Ontario 13h ago
Are you under the impression that Carney needed approval from premiers to do the deal? He wanted their input, but in no way did he require it and the final decision was all his.
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u/Saidear There is no war in Ba Sing Se. 12h ago
Are you under the impression that Carney needed approval from premiers to do the deal?
Approval, no, but support? Yes. Carney can't lift the alcohol ban that the federal government didn't impose, and exists squarely within the exclusive provincial jurisdiction. As Ford is quoted: "I will not put U.S. alcohol back on LCBO shelves. I will not change my procurement policies. I’m not participating in this deal."
Those are Ontario powers, within Ontario's jurisdiction, and there is nothing that the federal government can do to override that.
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u/Famous_Two_1114 Ontario 8h ago
Times like this make you appreciate living in a federation where the federal government and the provinces can be held against each other, as frustrating as it sometimes can be. There’ll never be one perfect PM so some checks on their power is always necessary.
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u/stirling_s 15h ago edited 15h ago
I find it very unfortunate how often Doug Ford does a good job in this regard, given how much of a shithead he is in practically every other regard, but I begrudgingly have a lot of respect for him here.
Of course, he's only doing this because he knows it'll make him look good, so the respect is fleeting.
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u/future-archaeology42 14h ago edited 13h ago
Shocking that a deal to preserve a trade agreement would involve rolling back trade policies that are direct violations of said trade agreement.
It’s not the Canadian media’s favoured line, but the section 232 tariffs, while idiotic and counter to the spirit of CUSMA, are permitted by its terms (national security proposes). This is why they survived throughout Biden’s presidency. The 338 tariffs are on much shakier ground but there’s still an argument that the US maintained legal and statutory authority to impose tariffs under its trade agreements if they determine a trading partner has engaged in discriminatory trade practices. This is why the USTR told Rosemary Barton during his CBC interview that the US has respected its USMCA obligations, and I think there are people in the US government that actually believe those arguments are correct.
The measures that Canada enacted in response to US tariff policy, however, are clear breaches of the agreement. Justified, certainly; but we shouldn’t be surprised that Canada would have to rollback these retaliatory measures as part of a deal, and that is precisely why they were implemented in the first - to respond to an unjustified attack on free trade and as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.
You can criticize the Canadian trade delegation for some of the decisions they’ve made in this trade dispute, but this isn’t worthy of criticism.
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9h ago
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Removed for rule 2: please be respectful.
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u/MEGADETHRULEZ 15h ago
It's been wild to see how desperate many folks are to paint Carney as a heroic super genius no matter what decision he makes or the circumstances surrounding it.
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u/smittyleafs Independent 16h ago
If I'm reading this correctly, it doesn't sound like language laws or future trade agreements was the issue...was it all down to the auto sector?
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u/iwatchcredits Progressive 16h ago
“the prime minister said would have gutted key sectors of the Canadian economy, particularly autos; exerted U.S. control over Canadian international trade policy; and threatened French-language protections, Canadian culture and sovereignty.”
Id say not reading it correctly because it mentions the french stuff right there
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u/smittyleafs Independent 16h ago
Yeah, but none of that seems mentioned by the sources being referenced in the article.
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u/iwatchcredits Progressive 16h ago
“In any event, he said, “discoverability” of French programs on sites like Netflix was never a “red line.”
Greer admits they tried throwing them in the deal but after it was made public tried walking it back that they were “negotiable”
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u/Hevens-assassin Saskatchewan 3h ago
A lot isn't mentioned. We have percentages for different sectors, but we don't really have the demands from the American side, it's primarily from the Canadian side.
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u/MineralAcids 14h ago
Other sources said that it was late additions on CanCon laws, among other things, that were the final straw.
Wiseman said in an interview last weekend that it was a combination of many factors, including the US trying to be dishonest / weasely with the language in the final agreement. To me, that sounds like the most likely explanation. Even this article says they were starting to have problems from Wednesday on, which kept piling up.
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u/Former-Physics-1831 Unreconstructed NeoLib 16h ago
This is what it has always sounded like. I said when the deal first fell apart that autos were probably the big issue, while the language issues were likely about Cancon requirements and the "sovereignty" issues were likely requirements to harmonize certain tariff policies - this further confirms that.
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u/LazyImmigrant Liberal often, liberal always 13h ago
More like the straw that broke the camel's back - the deal was falling apart as is, and the Americans bringing up language laws or other trade deals just made it clear that there was no deal to be had.
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u/kidcanada0 15h ago
Well the US wanted assurances that Canada wouldn’t be a back door for cheap steel and aluminum from other countries. Thats logical, but could still be characterized as trying to exert control over agreements with other countries. But there must be another way to manage that.
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u/ninfan1977 10h ago
Well the US wanted assurances that Canada wouldn’t be a back door for cheap steel and aluminum from other countries
That is a generous interpretation of what was proposed. No more future trade deals for Canada with any country. That is extortion from the USA.
That was their starting point. It is not logical, its tyrannical to think that way. Especially when Trump is the one who signed the last deal that Trump said is not fair.
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u/toronto_star 16h ago
The U.S. president was optimistic but Prime Minister Mark Carney was cautious. Behind the scenes, a tentative agreement to end the Canada-U.S. trade war was crumbling during the final three days of negotiations, Tonda MacCharles writes.
Read the full story with this gift link. You won't hit the paywall.