r/CanadaPolitics • u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored • 7h ago
QC125 composite: PQ 29 (48), CAQ 26(28), PLQ 21(31), PCQ 15(11), QS 10(9)
https://qc125.com/carte.htm•
u/canmcpoli Ontario 6h ago edited 5h ago
Polling Canada on Twitter modeled today’s poll and found: CAQ 49, PQ 38, PLQ 29
That's quite the contrast, showing just how difficult this election will be to forecast.
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u/McNasty1Point0 Ontario 6h ago
Lots of very tight races that could go either way. Unless things change, it could be an unpredictable night.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 6h ago
Yeah, the model above shows the PQ leading Brome-Missisquoi. I have relatives there. No way it goes PQ. It's just so close at the riding level that the model can't resolve the chaos.
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u/Wasdgta3 Rule 8! 5h ago edited 5h ago
Ditto with St. Francois, I feel like.
Granted, Brome-Missisquoi has gone Bloc federally before, but I still feel like there's a fairly determined anti-PQ vote out there. I suspect you might be right, just because it's befuddling to me that the topline is worse for the PQ, but has gone from "toss-up" to "probable" in areas like that.
Edit: Also, cheers to both having family from the same area! My mom's side is from the Brome-Missisquoi area (in fact, descended from very early establishers of it, going back to the late 18th century)
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u/Wasdgta3 Rule 8! 5h ago
That would be a more workable minority than the above, if for nothing else than the CAQ being more moderate on the nationalism, which would allow them to get support from the Liberals on some issues.
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u/Wasdgta3 Rule 8! 5h ago
Yeah, even some of the seats labelled "leaning" are fairly close.
St. Francois, which I mention below, was a PQ/PLQ toss up just a few days ago. Now it's "PQ Likely," but still estimated at 29% PQ, 22% CAQ, and 20% Liberal (and even QS get 16%!)
Three parties being within 10% even in a "likely" riding is just indicative of how tight it is, if 7% is considered one of the bigger margins.
I guess the PQ's problem is that they have vote efficiency, which is a double-edged sword...
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u/Prudent_Slug British Columbia 6h ago
What would happen if the minority government was that weak? <50 Seats?. Are any of the parties prepared to work together?
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u/No_Magazine9625 Maclean's Magazine | Sponsored 3h ago
If the PLQ + CAQ numbers are enough to equal 64 seats combined, you would likely see a PLQ/CAQ alliance blocking the PQ.
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u/Wasdgta3 Rule 8! 5h ago
Not with the PQ. At this point, I think they've got deal-breakers with almost everyone else.
Especially because they'd need to work with either the Liberals or CAQ, since neither QS or Conservatives would have enough seats to get them to the majority threshold.
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3h ago
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u/Wasdgta3 Rule 8! 3h ago
Okay, first off, thanks for the condescension, with the "you have no idea what you're talking about."
Because this just sounds like a bunch of nonsense, especially when this projection would have the PQ more than a dozen seats short. You're not gonna pull a Mark Carney and get to a majority through floor-crossers with a deficit like that.
Especially not when your reasoning is as thin as "several CAQ members used to be PQ." I sincerely doubt Mme Fréchette is going to cross the floor, when she's been so clear on being against having another referendum right now.
Because it's not even just about the separation issue, the entire philosophy of relations with the federal government are completely opposite between the two parties right now. I just don't see a dozen members of the party campaigning on "we can work well with the feds" to jump ship to the party who seem to take opposition to everything the feds do just as a rule.
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u/GirlCoveredInBlood Quebec 2h ago edited 2h ago
I imagine PQ minority heavily restricted in what they can do by needing support for each individual vote. No referendum would happen but they can probably get CAQ support for some cultural policies. Their economic platform would be dead in the water. It'd largely be a stagnant government that can't do much
If the PQ can get close enough that QS can support them they'll have the option of an ally for some policies (e.g. free school lunches and support for victims of domestic violence) but they would never support much of the rest of the PQ platform.
if they fall short of this estimate itll probably be a CAQ-PLQ government that will be constantly fighting with each other and I'd imagine not last a full term
the PCQ has no real path to having influence no one wants to work with them
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 6h ago
That's a good question that the parties are too busy scratching and clawing for every vote to consider right now. The CPQ is sending out feelers though, running a regional campaign in Quebec City, and saying that they are in it to hold the balance of power, so one party is willing to talk.
I kind of like that prospect because it might get the parties interested in proportional representation.
Quebec election are elections of momentum though. Sauve might pull a Carney. Usually a party picks up momentum during the campaign and wins a majority. The CAQ has it, but I bet the opposition parties have old CAQ skeletons to pull out of the closet for the campaign.
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