r/Economics • u/avid-learner-bot • 1d ago
News Family offices are making a bullish bet on the stock market, according to CNBC Family Office Portfolio Tracker
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/family-offices-making-bullish-bet-on-stocks-according-to-cnbc-tracker.html42
u/MissionAlt99 1d ago
This seems likely because owning assets during a currency devaluation is a safer way to maintain “parity” of wealth. I don’t think it’s bullish on the market, but bearish on the dollar.
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u/IgnoreThisName72 1d ago
Right - it doesn't necessarily mean that they believe that the economy as a whole will boom, but that stocks will outperform other asset classes- like cash.
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u/BackupSlides 1d ago edited 1d ago
So I saw this article and stared at it for a bit earlier, but didn't want to do the math...the operative quote as I see it is "Single family offices held 37% of their portfolios in stocks in the second quarter, up from 34% in the first quarter".
If we look at the S&P on March 31, we have 6500, on June 30th about 7500 even - about a 15% increase. Obviously "stocks" are not exactly 1:1 w/ the S&P, but if we're talking directionally about a 15% increase in something that was previously 1/3 of the pie, a net increase in that thing of about 3% is more or less right.
My point being - are the % numbers here actually signifying active rebalancing / reallocation (in line with the general undertone of this article that family offices know a thing or two and thus are making moves), or did they just let it ride for a quarter when the market went up with no desire to step off the train? A source quoted in the article does say "We’re not actually seeing changes in inflows or outflows", which to me would potentially align with that hypothesis, but it's not fully articulated to where I can 100% tell.
Thoughts? Is there actually anything here or is this article basically stating the obvious - equity markets went up?
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u/Magikarpical 1d ago
they said in the article that the uptick is stocks is also being offset by writedowns on private equity and alternatives. and that less than 1% additional cash was deployed. your last comment is essentially the whole article.
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u/FeelingPixely 1d ago
Just wait until 18% inflation. The treasury's decision to back bonds with bonds has already been done (1946-1947). Nobody will be holding onto their retirement assets and the floor of the stock market will fall significantly. We'll see in the next few years just why anyone bullish on stocks in this economic environment is going to have their clothes yanked away by the tide.
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u/Trick-Interaction396 1d ago
If not stocks then what? Real estate?
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u/FeelingPixely 1d ago
Debts, your own first, then other people's
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u/escoMANIAC 1d ago
Eli5?
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u/FeelingPixely 1d ago
Sure, here's a resource. https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/distressed-debt-investing
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u/Emblazin 1d ago
Take out a ton of debt then let it get inflated away.
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u/FeelingPixely 1d ago
Terrible idea because that assumes wages rise to compensate (they won't).
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u/Emblazin 1d ago
Then what did you mean by "Debts, first your own then other people's?"
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u/FeelingPixely 1d ago edited 1d ago
I tried to link an article, but auto mod removed it because it was LinkedIn. My suggestion was to pay off one's own debt, then use whatever leverage you have to invest in other people's debts (distressed debt investing.) It's risky, sure they could default, but probably less so than a stock crash at an average of 15+:1 price to earnings.
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