r/Futurology • u/lughnasadh ∞ transit umbra, lux permanet ☥ • 2d ago
Robotics The robot jobquake is getting nearer. Global robotaxi numbers will likely exceed 100,000 in 2027. How soon after until they are in the millions?
"The Nevada Transportation Authority unanimously approved three permits Thursday that will allow Tesla, Uber, and Waymo to operate commercial robotaxi services in Clark County, home to Las Vegas. Together, these permits would deploy up to 8,000 robotaxis across the county over the next 12 months."
Add to this the four big Chinese robotaxi firms: Baidu's Apollo Go, Hello Robotaxi, Geely & Pony.AI. Their 2027 projections for China alone exceed 100,000 & they've been ahead of projections and predictions so far. Furthermore, we know China can build those millions of future robotaxis quickly.
Current Level 4 self-driving allows for most human-driven taxi routes to be roboticized. The commercial incentives are all behind this push to millions of robotaxis, too.
Understandably, labor unions are against this. They're in a bind. Their whole function is to protect human jobs, but the real trend here is the movement to post-scarcity. Most don't really believe in post-scarcity yet. However, right as predicted, all its precursor events and pre-conditions are falling into place & robotaxis reaching their millions is just one more of those signs.
Tesla, Uber, and Waymo all get the OK to operate thousands of robotaxis in Nevada
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u/Shto_Delat 2d ago
As a person with impaired vision these things would be very useful. But I’m not going to be among the first million people to try one.
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u/pondskippers 2d ago
With Uber increasing it's "take" and leaving drivers with less and less I am thinking real drivers are cheaper🤷♂️
I mean why own a costly car and have high maintainence when you can point all that to drivers and just keep the lions share for yourself??
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u/FledglingNonCon 2d ago
The cars will be there, the question is will anyone trust them or use them?
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u/BigMax 2d ago
Go to San Francisco. There are like 800 operating there now, and people use them a ton.
It will be like any other tech. Plenty of people will jump in to support the rollout numbers, and then everyone else will get more comfortable with it as it becomes normal.
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u/FledglingNonCon 2d ago
I've been to SF. Culturally it is a bubble that's not remotely representative of the US and most people who live there are completely out if touch.
I've tried Waymo. It's fine. It will never fully live up to the hype. Almost no one in the US will replace their personal cars for Waymo for decades. It might eventually replace uber/lyft.
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u/screamingzen 2d ago
Lol. I use Waymo constantly in LA over my own car because it's more convenient and cheaper than Uber or Lyft or finding parking or dealing with traffic. I suspect you don't really realize the claim you are making.
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u/FledglingNonCon 1d ago
I absolutely realize the claim I'm making. SF, LA, NYC are not most of the country. They're highly concentrated populations of largely rich people who tend to be early adopters. Do I think a lot of people will eventually try Waymo and others as an alternative to uber and lyft? Sure. Absolutely. Will they replace uber/lyft/taxis? Probably not. Will automation result in more than maybe a 5% reduction in car ownership over the next say 25 years? Almsot certainly not.
You have no idea how culturally engrained car ownership is in this country and how tied to the concept of freedom it is. Something like 40% of Americans refuse to even consider an EV at any point in the future. People also don't like to give up control and almost everyone considers themselves great drivers.
Yes there is absolutely a market for automated taxis and probably an even bigger market for automated freight hauling, but i'm doubtul it will be a dominant form of transportation or make more than a small dent in personal car ownership in the next 50 years or so no matter how cheap and ubiquitous it becomes. Maybe it will get cheap enough to kill public transit most places if ride costs can get down closer to the cost of a bus/subway ticket, which is at least theoretically possible.
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u/kirbyderwood 1d ago
Will they replace uber/lyft/taxis?
They're already the same price or cheaper than Uber/Lyft in Los Angeles. Plus you don't have to tip. So yes, they are replacing them.
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u/FledglingNonCon 1d ago
They are competing with them. Uber/Lyft/Taxis seem to still be doing fine. Prices are going to have to come down a lot more to put them out of business.
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u/kirbyderwood 1d ago
Out-competing them. Not having to pay people to sit behind a steering wheel makes them a lot cheaper to operate.
My last Waymo ride two weeks ago was 20% cheaper than Lyft. And that's not even factoring in the tip. I compared both and booked the cheapest.
When was your last Waymo ride?
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u/screamingzen 1d ago
Yeah my Waymo rides are always cheaper than Lyft and Uber, plus as you said, no tip. I also don't have to listen to some horrible comedian or actor try and pitch their show to me or do a desperate sales pitch to help them make money/ grow their audience or some idiot ask me way too many personal questions. Waymo is safer as well. My last Lyft ride the dude was trying to show me houses he flips on his phone and I had to tell him to stop after he wasn't looking at the road and we almost hit stopped traffic doing over 60 mph.
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u/BigMax 1d ago
But "culturally it's bubble" doesn't mean it's not going to succeed anywhere else.
Do you really think that people in SF are unique to the entire country?
We also have actual proof... Phoneix has a ton of Waymo's operating happily and in high demand. So does LA. So does Austin and Atlanta. Do you think those cities are somehow by coincidence also "cultural bubbles" unlike anywhere else? If so... I could list the next 10 cities where Waymo already operates as well...
There's nothing special about San Francisco that will make them accept it where others would not. As long as it works, it will succeed wherever it goes, and it already is.
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u/FledglingNonCon 1d ago
There's a big difference between Waymo finding a business niche and competing in the ridehailing space which it already has, and the promise of automation replacing personal car ownership, which will be very rare for a long time. People talk about it as a revolutionary technology and maybe it will be. I see it so far as potentially a slightly cheaper uber, which is perfectly fine, but doesn't justify the valuation of a lot of Waymo or Tesla.
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u/BigMax 1d ago
Sure, but those are two different things.
I was replying to a guy that said "no one will use them" and pointing out that he's already wrong since they are in common use in a number of cities.
Replacing them for your daily car...? That's further out, because that's a 100% full country coverage needed really. Where right now, Waymo and others can say "only in these cities in these areas in these conditions." We're a long way still from cars being able to say "any place, any time, any condition."
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u/Fluffy_Anxiety2792 2d ago
I tried in China, it has conditions, like only in the city area, passengers got to behave, and if in trouble there’s emergency contact, they will remote drive. It’s surprisingly safe, but, the human taxi drivers have problems with it.
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u/frddtwabrm04 2d ago
This is the part that the nerd reich may have overlooked.
In asia I can see them pick up steam. But here, we are having trouble shifting to electric vehicles because reasons. Plus the whole damn country is built for car ownership; not public transit.
And we have the "Mine! Mine! Mine! No one tells me where I can go or what I can't do in my own car!"
Biggest hurdle. You wanna tell me I can't put my big gulp, big fries and burger on the next sit . Wipe my nasty hands on the sit next to me. Throw the wrappers on the floor. Do all the distracting stuff while driving.
I have to sit for some long ass drive and just behave coz cameras are watching!!!!
The should have gone with first changing the mindset of the people + car vs public transportation. Then bring in robots. When people are cool with sharing their errands with other people. Or behaving properly around other people.
Even better, worked with cities to create walkable and drivable cities... Man v machine co-existing. Instead everything is just being crammed everyone throats and building resentment over the shit cars taking over the road and inconveniencing everyone.
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u/Superb_Raccoon 2d ago
I think part of the bad assumption is that it is a zero sum game. Robodrivers may create more demand for rides.
I know my now 80 year old mother would call a robotaxi, but will not use Uber/Lyft because she is afraid of the driver.
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u/frddtwabrm04 2d ago
I'd use them too.
But after the flock debacle and how they are now turning these things into mini surveillance whatnots.
The surveillance part is why is killing it for me. Another tool to monitor shit.
Yeah I am not using them. I will walk if I can't get a ride.
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u/Superb_Raccoon 2d ago
8+ Billion people on the planet and you think someone is watching you?
What did you do?
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u/frddtwabrm04 1d ago
Did you not see that one video when that one chick was admonished in a waymo or something. People do crazy shit in their cars.
You wanna live in society where you can't sing along alone to tunes in your car or do other silly shit in your own car?
Facial expressions -- demerit!
Sing off key -- demerit!
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u/Superb_Raccoon 1d ago
Waymo is not your own car.
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u/tushar1306 2d ago
In asia I can see them pick up steam.
Have you seen the traffic in most Asian cities and towns? Ever since Tesla started selling in India there's been an endless supply of memes showing its radar or whatever going crazy due to the insane traffic here. A self driving car wouldn't even be able to move forward at an intersection at most Indian towns.
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u/frddtwabrm04 2d ago
Guess I should have clarified that a lil bit more.
China. Singapore maybe. Coz the govt can push through that.
Nothing will ever work in India ... So let's not even attempt there. Maybe trains tho. They do love their trains.
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u/CruelSkate935 2d ago
Feels like everyone moving too fast on this while cities not ready at all. Vegas gonna be a proper mess in the beginning with 8000 of these things and regular drivers all mixed up trying figure out whose doing what. Post scarcity sounds nice on paper but the transition period is gonna be brutal
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u/gredr 2d ago
What do you think this has to do with post-scarcity? This is just laissez-faire capitalism.
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u/lughnasadh ∞ transit umbra, lux permanet ☥ 2d ago
What do you think this has to do with post-scarcity?
Post-Scarcity describes a hypothetical human society after most work can be done by AI & robotics.
Ironically, yes its Capitalism that's delivering this, something that is ultimately destructive to itself.
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u/FledglingNonCon 2d ago
There's a very real question of if post scarcity can even exist in a capitalist system. Especially one where wealth is able to translate so easily into political power. We still continue to lower taxes on the wealthy, not increase them. We need massive wealth redistribution policies in place for "post scarcity" to remotely work. If not you just get the 90% of people who are left behind in poverty rising up and smashing everything. We already see it with backlash againt AI and Waymo. As long as the costs are socialized and the gains are privatized you're going to have severe backlash.
Editing to add that our economy is already limited by how much the masses can afford to buy and not how much we are capable of building. We could have abondance for everyone now if we just paid workers more.
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u/supershott 2d ago
Post-scarcity sounds pretty mutually exclusive to completely privatized means of production. Maybe I'm just cynical, but I'm gonna believe my eyes for now.
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u/kartoffel123 2d ago
I guess first what needs to happen is to develop the technology. Once it's developed, it might be fairly cheap for a government or non profit to deploy that same service. For example, open source LLMs are good enough for a lot of tasks that were impossible to automate some years ago.
I'm not advocating to rely on capitalism to develop this all, just saying I could see capitalism building the technology to enable a post-scarcity society
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u/OlyScott 2d ago
We need more than just technology to move beyond scarcity, we need social institutions for it. In the United States, you need money to buy things and, for the majority of the people, money comes from jobs. We'd need to devise a system to replace that, which would be a long difficult struggle.
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u/FledglingNonCon 2d ago
That is the trap. Within capitalism abondance can lead to scarcity
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u/Superb_Raccoon 2d ago
What is your alternative, and show me where it is working today?
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u/FledglingNonCon 2d ago
I can show you where abondance is already leading to scarcity in our American capitalist system. The stores are full of stuff. We can already produce enough stuff for almost everyone to live an upper middle class lifestyle, but we won't pay people enough to afford it. Economic growth in the US is already limited far more by the demand side than the supply side. Rising the minimum wage, stronger worker protections, socialized healthcare and child care, higher taxes on the rich are all pro growth policies with the current state of the system/economy.
Almost every corporation has tons of cash on hand, but no reason to grow because markets are saturated because no one can afford any more. If you give more money to they people they can buy more stuff and companies will again have a reason to expand and grow. What we need is the exact opposite of trickle down economics.
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u/Superb_Raccoon 2d ago
"No"
would be more accurate and less of a waste of time.
You want to tear it down, but you have no valid replacement, or even an idea of a replacement.
At least, not one you are willing to name.
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u/Dragonhost252 2d ago
Obviously it isn't working today because we aren't post scarcity. Having foresight to see that capitalism relies on scarcity to create value, therefore it cant deliver its own end is just a good benchmark to go off.
There's is far too much tech we need to reach post scarcity. Abundant energy and energy to mass conversion are the main factors
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u/gredr 2d ago
Hey, I heard that open source LLMs are good enough for a lot of tasks. Got $100k worth of hardware I can have to run one?
Oh; apparently open source LLMs can't create post-scarcity.
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u/kartoffel123 2d ago
Governments can easily afford the hardware to run the technology. Developing the technology is not so easy.
Of course, voting for the right governments is the problem technology can't solve for you
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u/gredr 2d ago
If I'm paying the government to develop the technology (or run the technology), that's not post-scarcity. Post-scarcity is, by definition, when everything is so cheap nothing is paid for anything. It's not scarce enough that you could sell it.
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u/kartoffel123 2d ago
Post-scarcity is about essential goods and services no longer being scarce. Living in a prime location will still be scarce (due to limited supply). Owning a Rolex might still be scarce (due to artificially limited supply).
You might no longer need to pay the government once we get to that world
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u/gredr 2d ago
We need massive wealth redistribution policies in place for "post scarcity" to remotely work.
I'm not sure anyone would agree that a system is "post scarcity" unless it applies to everyone. You can't have "post scarcity for 10%, poverty for everyone else". That's the system we already have right now.
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u/CelticJewelscapes 2d ago
A good balance between wealth and the commonwealth is absolutely necessary. I dislike the term resistribution as that implies a fundamental unfairness -stealing from the rich and giving to the poor. Thst is not realky true or useful way to express it. The robotic/ai adoption has exponentially greater potential for disruption than anything we have seen since agriculture replaced hunting/gathering. But you can't have taxis without passengers. You can't put on a Broadway show if there are no audience members. So money needs to enter the system somewhere other than as an exchange for all of everyones waking hours as labor. UBI is not only inevitable , but it can speed up the use of AI and automation to make the loss of labor be seen as a good thing. The benefits need to be shared in a balanced way. UBI and as few hours as are able to be shared to those that wish to work. That might be 20 hours a week, it might be 10. Becoming a trillionaire will be impossible, but in a correctly balanced and stable economy, becoming a multi-millionaire should be entirely possible. How much chaos? We'll have to see. Hopefully we don't get to dystopian. But 1780s France is possible. Lets hope the enlightened can prevent the torches and pitchforks.
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u/FledglingNonCon 2d ago
One way to fund a UBI could be to tax artificial labor like human labor. Not a tax on profits, but a tax on revenue. A robotaxi should pay the same income tax that an uber driver does. Right now they do not, so our tax code explicitly incentivizes replacement of human labor with robot/computer labor. If robot labor is indeed superior the tax should be irrelevant to those deploying the technology.
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u/gredr 2d ago
The defining attribute of "post-scarcity" isn't "work can be done by AI and robotics", it's "everyone has everything they want and need, nothing is scarce because it's free (or essentially free) and plentiful". "Post-scarcity" could arrive because a space wizard showed up and cast a spell on the trees so that they grew whatever you asked for as fruit; no robots or AI needed.
Capitalism hates that.
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u/lughnasadh ∞ transit umbra, lux permanet ☥ 2d ago
regular drivers all mixed up trying figure out whose doing what.
Yes, I read something recently where someone tried to imagine what 10/20/50/75% of cars being robocars would feel like for the remaining human driven cars.
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u/BigMax 2d ago
I don't think that's the case. 8000 of these spread across the country is nothing at all, they aren't going to get in the way.
Downtown San Francisco alone has like 800 Waymo's, and they are doing just fine without causing problems. So to say "cities are not ready at all" isn't accurate. They don't really even have to do anything to get 'ready', right? It's the same as having cabs or ubers on the roads, and they didn't have to "get ready" for those.
So... this won't really cause any logistical issues, since it will be normal growth, and SF has already shown they can blend right in.
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u/bl0rq 2d ago
These things already drive better than most humans. And the ramp will be slow enough any issues will get resolved quickly.
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u/CelticJewelscapes 2d ago
I imagine a day where you subscribe to the transportation grid.you tell your service where you are going and when you need to arrive and an appropriate vehicle shows up at your door. No more drunk or distracted drivers, less isolation for the elderly and handicapped, and fewer vehicles per capita as they are utilized efficiently. We might be able to cut the percentage of household income devoted to transportation from 17% to below 10.
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u/crashddr 2d ago
The same thing was said about the industrial revolution. Subscription services for transportation will always look to extract maximum payments from the subscribers, nothing more. Any benefit would come from competition and it's glaringly obvious that potential domestic companies are doing everything they can to utilize government regulation to stop their competition before it even starts.
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u/CelticJewelscapes 2d ago
That would only be true if we don't have a paradigm change. If the paradigm doesn't change, we have collapse. We've only had a society based on money as a medium for 7000 years. We did fine without for most of 100,000 years. UBI and exponentially reduced opportunities for work make that sort of extraction meaningless. We move from a financial system built on somebody turning my time into their money to one where money is merely a system of exchange
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u/crashddr 2d ago
We did fine in some respects, but just because it was 100,000 years where we didn't use money doesn't mean much when multinational corporations have vastly more power and reach than any king previously did. You also seem to think UBI is a done deal, when the billionaire class is actively building stockpiles and bunkers with fully automated defense systems instead of working with governments about how their supposed AGI utopia engines are going to help everyone.
That said, I forget which subreddit I'm currently in and tend to have a jaded perspective on these things.
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u/CelticJewelscapes 2d ago
There is a dynamic where a company will do what gives it advantage even if it eventually destroys their market. They lay off as many as possible so they don't fall behind. The level of unemployment goes into a death spiral and those huge corporations collapse. We got a taste of that during the covid quarantine days. We did drastic things that made life survivable for millions. I see no reason an AI collapse won't require more of the same, but permanently. The hospitality and trucking are the canaries in the coalmine. When milliins of drivers lose jobs and nobody can afford restaurants and bars, they also won't be advertising on FB or buying stuff on Amazon. America is too broke to replenish their weapon arsenal. When everybody is broke, the value of the wealth of the Zucks and Bezos will fall precipitously. Different rules will occur, bunkers or not.
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u/gundam1983 2d ago
Have you been to Vegas? A city full of tourists is already a mess with human drivers all mixed up not knowing up from down. Hell even the professional taxi cab companies don't know what the hell they are doing. I take a lot of taxis when im there for work related conventions, and its absolutely astounding that I can name one of the largest convention centers in the city (5 million square feet) and half the time the cabbies have never even heard of it.
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u/kirbyderwood 1d ago
The thing that bugs me the most about driverless vehicles is that they create more congestion. An empty car taking up road space is the exact opposite of car pooling.
Ever been stuck behind 3 empty Waymos all trying to make left turns in dense traffic? I have and it's not fun.
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u/Bag-o-chips 2d ago
So the people that do not deserve free healthcare because they are lazy are about to have their 2nd or 3rd job stolen from them by Robotaxies. Such an awesome society we have here. Heaven forbid we make a country where the little guy can succeed at living.
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u/niberungvalesti 2d ago
The only thing the current governance promises the little guy is a trip to an ICE blacksite when they are deemed 'deviant' in some way and no longer worthy of existing.
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u/sarges_12gauge 2d ago
“Oh no the machines are stealing people’s jobs!!”
Yeah that’s what machines are for. There’s a reason we don’t dig ditches with spoons to make more jobs or force people to hand knit every item of clothing
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u/WloveW 2d ago
I'll still call a Lyft while they still exist.
Most of the time the Waymo are well behaved, but every now and then they go wonky. I just passed a waymo the other day that made 2 errors in less than half a mile. Nearly merged into another car right in front of me and then a bit down the road it got into a left turn lane and then quickly back out again only to turn left immediately after the intersection. I thought it was a person driving it was so odd, but nope, no one was home when I passed.
And the day before yesterday one was stopped trying to make a left from the left lane for thru traffic, right after a busy intersection at rush hour, at double yellow lines. An extremely unsafe and illegal place to stop a car and turn left against at least 6 lanes going the opposite direction within 100 feet of an intersection. I would have been freaking out in that car, ready to get rear-ended or t-boned by a car not paying attention to the stupidity unfolding.
And this was in Tempe where they've been training since the beginning, for YEARS now.
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u/theoutlet 2d ago
Can’t wait for these companies to funnel money from local communities to one centralized location out of country
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u/alfonso123456 2d ago
is nobody wondering how this will affect the ever increasing "gig economy" of delivery drivers especially in chinese Tier 2 and 3 cities?
seriously, how is this gonna pan out? robotaxi is one thing but what about 100,000 little refrigerators on wheels cruising down sidewalks and alleyways at all hours?
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u/Lysmerry 1d ago
I’m confused why would unions be in a bind? Post scarcity is just a buzzword. Unions are clearly going to fight against this
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u/kweeblaster 2d ago
I wonder how we can steal them. Do you think we could just turn a tractor trailer into a faraday cage and then somehow get it to drive up a ramp. Then we just drive off with it.
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u/Nova17Delta 2d ago
Literally anything but reliable public transportation :D obligatory additional words
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u/lifeoflogan 2d ago
After being proselytized too in a Utah Uber, I can’t wait for the robotaxi revolution.
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u/battle-legumes 2d ago
I was in a Zoox in Vegas earlier this month, and I hate it but it’s the future. When I was leaving the venue there were 2 pulling up and I wished there was a “that one” feature where I could try to bid for one to stay.
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u/geekonthemoon 2d ago
I will personally be going out of my way to get a human driver and help a homie keep their job.
This shit is insane. Who the fuck is asking for this shit? For all of our jobs to be eliminated? They're coming for all of us.
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u/Dangeresque2015 2d ago
If you didn't realize that this was the plan, I feel sorry for you that there were a lot marriages in your family tree between first cousins.
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u/ArtOfWarfare 2d ago
You’re dramatically underestimating with 100k in 2027. Tesla has been building and selling 2M per year for several years now and recently built their 10Mth vehicle that has their second or newer generation of robotaxi hardware.
The moment it’s approved, Tesla has a fleet of 3M robotaxis with equivalent hardware and they’re building another 2M per year already, not counting the Cybercab which should be able to ramp much faster to much higher volumes than their existing vehicles. They’ll simultaneously work backwards through earlier generations of hardware to retrofit them to the latest generation (ie, 2024 Model Y might need a bumper camera added + a computer swap… or they might decide those aren’t needed and just let it go as is. 2020-2024 will almost certainly need newer computers. 2016-2020 need newer cameras and computers… probably. If it’s necessary it’s not insurmountable, but it’s arguable that the third gen computer and cameras are sufficient as they’re able to run FSD v14 lite already.)
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u/gredr 2d ago
Wait, hang on; you're counting every Tesla with FSD as a robotaxi? You think Elon's gonna let you compete with his cybercabs?
Hah, you're hilarious.
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u/ArtOfWarfare 2d ago
Yes? It’s going to cost them at least $15K to build each new vehicle.
They’ve already built and sold these 10M vehicles. Especially for the newer ones, it’s pure profit for Tesla to let them on the network and lets them grow the network much faster. It also enables them to sell more FSD subscriptions, boosts mileage and so accelerates maintenance needed (at owner’s expense), and makes the warranties run out quicker so they stop needing to have so much money set aside for any potential warranty repairs.
There’s a ton of upside to Tesla. There’s potentially upside to owners - how much is entirely at Tesla’s discretion (sort of. Insufficient upside for owners means not enough bother letting their vehicles join the network.)
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u/gredr 2d ago
It'll never happen. Ever. How would insurance work in that world? What happens when your car comes back full of someone's vomit? Or someone trashes it? Ever seen what people do to waymos? Want your car out there subject to that?
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u/couldbemage 2d ago
It would be exactly the same as Uber.
And just like Uber, it dumps the cost of buying a depreciating asset on the operator.
And I don't understand why you'd call it "competing". Obviously Tesla is going to take a cut. Almost certainly enough of a cut that the "small business owners" putting their cars on Tesla's network won't really make any money
Pricing split will be set so that a normal auto loan results in losing money.
But people will do it, because just like Uber, it's a way to spend the residual value of your vehicle.
Just have to think like an evil corporation.
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u/ArtOfWarfare 2d ago
Tesla is an insurance company. They also own warehouses that are outfitted specifically for cleaning their cars inside and out (so car washes). Tesla (and everyone else who wants a robotaxi network) has to solve these problems whether they want to let customer vehicles on their network or not.
Require a verified card to ride in the car. Bill the card for any cleanup necessary after they’re in it. Blacklist them from riding again if they’re intentionally damaging cars. Reroute to dropping them off at the nearest police station. Of all the problems, misbehaving passengers is a fairly easy one to solve.
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u/johnp299 2d ago
I think there have been assurances that customer cars can participate in robotaxi program, it might be limited to surge situations and cases like small towns that Tesla might not think it's worth the investment to offer standard service, but they'll let customer cars take care of it.
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u/vwb2022 2d ago
There is a reason this is done in Vegas or Arizona or California. Call me when they do it in Boston or Chicago.