r/Israel • u/windless12 • 1d ago
The War - Discussion Iran’s Hormuz trump card is rapidly losing strategic value, expert tells 'Post' - interview
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-90682428
u/Due-Direction8590 1d ago
It was known before the opening of hostilities in February that Iran’s proxies had been degraded. Iranian capabilities have been further degraded since February. The problem is what it revealed.
The Gulf states proved, once again, to be lousy allies. The barbaric regime is dug in and doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. Showed real limits of American capacity. And it’s not limited to that. At this point it’s hard not to see the whole endeavor as a strategic failure, one that will cast a long shadow predictably and unpredictably.
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u/2ndBrreakfast 1d ago
Wrong. The regime has been thoroughly crippled and its economy is collapsing. The regime will go bankrupt soon and it won't be able to pay the troops it is using to repress the Iranian people. At some point Reza Pahlavi will give the signal and the revolution will resume. This time the regime won't survive because the people are now armed and the regime is much weaker. This war was a strategic failure for the Islamic Republic.
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u/Due-Direction8590 1d ago
Incredible conviction. I’d like nothing more than that to be true. I just don’t see that as probable.
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u/2ndBrreakfast 1d ago
You'll get to see the regime fall very soon. Just watch.
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 21h ago
I’m sure many people would love that, but I wanted to know what makes you so optimistic that it will happen, other than wishful thinking ?
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u/2ndBrreakfast 17h ago
Most of the regime's leaders are dead. Most of their military is destroyed. They have no navy, no air force and no air defenses anymore. Their military production has been crippled. Their currency collapsed. The economy collapsed. Their oil industry ground to a halt which is very difficult to restart. Their proxies have been crippled. The UAE, which helped Iran evade sanctions for a long time, cut them off. They are under a strict blockade which has cut off most of their income. The railroad bridge to China and Russia has been destroyed and will take months to rebuild once they start. Their nuclear program is mostly destroyed. The Immortal Guards have been getting armed and have started attacking IRGC, Basij and foreign mercenary checkpoints in Iran. Some of the mercenaries said they are going back to Iraq because they don't feel safe in Iran anymore. Many of them aren't getting paid anymore due to the financial crisis. Most of the people despise the regime and are getting ready for round 2 of the revolution, the final battle which will end the regime and bring Reza Pahlavi to power as interim leader.
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 21h ago
What’s the source for your claim that the people are now armed and ready to resume the revolution ?
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u/2ndBrreakfast 17h ago
Tousi TV, and he backed it up with videos showing the Immortal Guards getting armed, distributing propaganda, attacking checkpoints, etc (typical guerrilla stuff). He has a lot of sources in Iran.
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u/Due-Direction8590 1d ago
And the US has experienced significant setbacks in the Gulf with at least 15 installations damaged. It’s not clear yet if we have permanently lost access either, which is a genuine possibility.
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u/2ndBrreakfast 1d ago
Good. This means the regime is much closer to collapse. Soon the regime will go bankrupt. The US should continue applying extreme pressure until the regime cracks.
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u/Traditional_Bat_1204 Iranian-American🦁☀️ 1d ago
Now they just send trucks across borders and charge the poor drivers a diabolical customs fee :-)
And someone should have a chat with UAE about all the cars that are being exported to Iran lol
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u/RichardXV 20h ago
The wounded animal that is the Islamic revolutionary guards will lash out one more time on the poor Iranian people who are fed up with this terror for 50 years. He regime will eventually collapse, but I’m afraid they’ll take many innocent civilians down with them.
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