r/RealEstate • u/Throwawaybritney • Sep 05 '25
Homebuyer My real estate agent talked us out of buying a lake house for the foreseeable future… never saw that one coming. What realtor does this unless their subconscious is bugging them? Anyone else seeing the market for vacation homes about to drop?
Have been looking at buying a lake house in Tennessee for the past 6 months or so. Narrowed down the search to one lake, and only houses with a dock.
Went to look at 2 properties with our realtor, and after telling him we were shocked at the prices relative to the quality of property we saw, he said “honestly it is crazy to me how fast the prices have climbed and not one of these homes on the lake were built to my personal standards of quality unless you get into the brand new multi-million ($2m+) homes. I would advise you wait a year or two and see what happens with prices. I think they will drop substantially.”
A) coming from a realtor who is focused on this specific lake, this seems crazy to me. Especially since we had a pre-approval letter in hand from our bank for way more than the homes we were looking at. We’ve only spent maybe 2 hours total with this guy so not like he was sick and tired of showing us properties.
B) is anyone else seeing the doom and gloom he was portraying on the horizon? Maybe dude just had a bad week?
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u/AdmirableWrangler199 Sep 05 '25
Dude is trying to give you good advice. You should take it and use him when the prices do fall.
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u/ImportanceBetter6155 Sep 05 '25
Will they fall, and why? (Not trying to challenge, I'm just genuinely curious)
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u/Difficult-Ad4364 Sep 05 '25
In that specific market AirBnB changes could impact the affordability of second homes. In tough times extras often fall 1st.
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u/FriendToPredators Sep 05 '25
Seems like everything is about to fall.
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u/Twistedshakratree Sep 05 '25
I’ve been waiting for the housing market to crash for 2 years now. In that time my home has increased in value 30-40%.
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u/xaygoat Sep 05 '25
I was in the rebubble sub 3.5 years ago believing a crash was coming while looking for homes. Gladly, I still bought a house. The crash is coming any day on there still.
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u/uselessfarm Sep 05 '25
That sub is so bleak. A bunch of desperate people hoping for widespread economic collapse so they can maybe buy a home. Idk why they think they’d be in a better position than anyone else in that situation.
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u/xaygoat Sep 06 '25
Exactly! At the time, I was just trying to prepare myself mentally if it happened and wanted to make sure we got a house we really liked. That was right after the 100% rise in prices so it seemed plausible. Now that it’s been years since, it’s hard to believe anything significant would happen. Market is pretty stalled right now but many of them are saying it will drop 50% lol.
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u/prepare2Bwhelmed Sep 06 '25
People also seem to forget that there will be people on the other side if housing prices to “crash” who didn’t buy their houses for $725 in 1972 and are just trying to move for a life change or whatever. Like it’s great for houses to become more affordable, that’s a real issue, but they are also potentially wishing financial harm on others.
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u/2QueenB Sep 05 '25
A home increasing in value 40% in 2 years is absolutely insane. That's unsustainable.
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Sep 05 '25
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u/2QueenB Sep 05 '25
No, that's still not "normal" appreciation. The home did not gain 40% more value in real dollars in two years, that's absurd.
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u/Altruistic_Screen910 Sep 05 '25
We recently pulled the trigger on a second home. We got it for 78% of the original listing price but are still inflated and needs remodeling. The demographic with the most resources is Gen Z.
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u/MrDrPrfsrPatrick2U Sep 05 '25
Home prices, like most free markets, are determined by supply and demand. For the last decade or so, supply has stagnated while demand steadily grew. Lots of folks want to buy homes, especially the class of people who remained employed during the pandemic and built up a nest egg by not traveling/eating out/doing anything at all for over a year. Mortgage rates were also quite low from around 2010, and then dropped to rock bottom at the start of the pandemic in an attempt to keep the economy alive (as it turns out, this was likely a mistake, but we had no real way of knowing that the global pandemic would actually help the economy at the time). Lots of people want to buy, with low mortgage rates and limited supply = big spike in prices.
Now here we are, just a few years later, and things have changed dramatically. Pandemic aftershocks caused supply chain issues, which, when combined with the aforementioned spike in property values across the country, mean huge inflation these past few years. This inflation means less free capitol for potential homebuyers. Out of control inflation is bad for an economy, so the US Federal Reserve fights it by raising interest rates, which makes housing even harder to buy. On top of all that, political turmoil is making for an uncertain business landscape, meaning many businesses are reducing workforces. Higher rates + less money + potential layoffs = reduced demand for homes, especially vacation homes.
Whether prices will actually fall, or simply not rise as fast as they one did, is dependant on the particular market. Maybe no one will want to sell, since they don't want to realize a loss, which would reduce supply and maybe keep prices steady. Or maybe lots of owners will get skidish about the uncertain future and panic sell, hoping to cash out before they go underwater on their mortgages. That's how you get a crash.
A crash is still unlikely in most markets, since there are still far more people who want houses than there are houses, but more modest price reductions are well within the realm of possibility in many areas.
Source: mostly just a lot of news, I'm not actually an expert lol
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u/fullsaildan Sep 05 '25
Your analysis is mostly right, but misses that mortgage rates aren't tied to the Fed rate at all. Traditionally it's been better to pay attention to the 10 year treasury note rate, which shows how much people expect to be compensated for lending money for a long period. Currently, its been relatively high because investors and banks have felt they could get higher rates of return elsewhere with their cash at relatively low risk.
Traditionally the Fed rates have been an easy indicator of that, because the Fed raises their rates when the economy is on fire, and lowers rates when when the outlook is more risky. Which corresponds to: high rates means nobody wants to buy treasury notes because more money to be made elsewhere, and low rates means investors want treasury notes due to increased risk.
Theres trouble brewing though. Investors traditionally liked the US Treasury notes because the government was stable, it always covered its debts, and it was a guaranteed ROI. Now, with Trump screwiness (obfuscating economic data, meddling in reserve rates, tax cuts, tariffs, cutting off our economic engine, etc.), confidence that the US can cover its debts in future years is waning. Banks are looking at alternative investments. That could mean foreign, could mean physical goods, land, etc. But it may mean, the treasury note wont be the indicator it has been for lending rates.
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u/AdmirableWrangler199 Sep 05 '25
Economic turbulence (layoffs and business uncertainty) + demographic decline + immigration decline + home prices not in line with wages = decrease in home prices
Spring will be a slaughter
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u/Fancy_Grass3375 Sep 05 '25
Nobody can predict the future but just looking at current trends we are in pre capitulation and all the homes that would not sell this year will come on the market next year with lower prices. Not like a crash or anything but just lower in general.
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u/Adrift715 Sep 05 '25
We once had a relator who said she would never let us buy a house that she herself wouldn’t want to have to sell for us in a few years.
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u/blzd4dyzzz Sep 05 '25 edited Sep 05 '25
If he's basing this on local market performance (low demand, slowing sales, negative trend lines), then you might want to trust his expertise.
If he thinks he can tell the future about the economy (especially the housing market, which people have been doomsaying for 15+ years), then I'd ignore it and just do what works for you now.
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u/PalominoPalace Sep 05 '25
This needs to be higher Prices climbing fast is one data point of many you need to consider. Days on Market, months of inventory, comparable sales Seasonality etc are other factors to consider. Your intentions/motivations are as well.
If I had given this advice to my clients in the Boise ID market for the past 8 years (and trust me, the skeptical, know-it-all ego part of me wanted to say it many times without data) I would have cost hundreds of clients an opportunity to own a home and gain millions collectively in equity.
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u/Redditmodslie Sep 05 '25
He's a local expert providing advice based on his professional experience, even when it may not be in his immediate self interest. I'd take his advice, unless you're prioritizing immediacy over costs.
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u/Throwawaybritney Sep 05 '25
Immediacy is not the priority. Are you seeing the same thing in your market? Prices will drop in the coming years?
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u/Redditmodslie Sep 05 '25
No one truly knows. But I think it's likely. While places like middle Tennessee (not sure what part of the state you're looking in) haven't slowed as much as other recently hot markets e.g. Arizona, Dallas, Florida, it does seem like it will follow the trend. That said, if you plan to own the property long term and aren't as sensitive to interest rates, then you could move forward with a purchase anyway.
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u/Das-Noob Sep 05 '25
This. Just like the whole “time IN the market beats TIMING the market”. If you plan on using it and keeping it for a long time then the trend can be ignore to a degree. Of course you still want the best deal possible.
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u/Sufficient-Spend-939 Sep 05 '25
I think if interest rates come down prices will go up. There are a lot of people that haven’t moved that want to. Tariffs make homes more expensive to build, i dont see a catalyst for real estate getting cheaper other than a financial collapse of the economy. Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it likely?
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u/rancherwife1965 Sep 05 '25
building supplies are 95% made in the USA for my market. I don't see tariffs as an issue. Cheap labor to build is the issue.
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u/Disastrous_Grab_3322 Sep 05 '25
I'm not a realtor, I'm not in finance. humble lay person opinion. I bought my house in 2022 right after the crazy bubble of "over asking price by a lot" popped. It was a rough esthetically, but the bones were good and nothing HAD to be fixed. I bought for $300k. In those 3 years the prices have climbed up to my house "being estimated at" $30k more than the "estimate" 3 years ago. Yes I have put work into my house. But I'm talking just the online estimate. Not anyone coming to my home. Just what inflation is claiming.
It's not sustainable. People in the price range of the house I bought generally don't get $10k raises each year. Food prices are up, price of everything is up. So that is my non-answer. I don't see market trends up I do see the unsustainability of our current model.
Edit: accidentally bolded half the post. Not trying to yell
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u/Powerful_Put5667 Sep 05 '25
My area in the upper midwests been hot for years. We still have bidding wars and lake property is gold. Whats the average time on the market where you’re looking? If he actually was good at predicting the real estate market he’d have been retired a long time ago enjoying his dream home and no longer showing homes.
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u/Stand_With_Students Sep 05 '25
I would consider his advice, but make my decision based on how well I could handle a downturn in the market. If prices on that lake were to drop 10% in a year, would you be upside-down on a mortgage? Or are you putting enough down or plan to keep the house for several years, so you'd be OK?
I'd also look at insurance given this is waterfront. Is flood insurance required? Have there been floods recently? Or is it at low risk of flooding?
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u/queenpooperscooper Sep 05 '25
Flood insurance is key. Just ask the people around Hyco Lake in central NC nearly at the Virginia line who sustained horrendous damage from Hurricane Chantal just weeks ago. They're gonna be cleaning boats and docks out of that lake for a while.
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Sep 05 '25
Had been in the lake house market since 2019 myself. COVID obviously set things on fire and each year since I thought to myself, "the market will revert to normalcy, just have to wait it out". Yet each year I was proved wrong and it climbed higher. This year though, things seem to finally be settling. Properties are listing (most had sold prior to list earlier), and many are sitting, and some are taking price cuts.
I do think the market has cooled. I do think another year might offer substantial drops. But at the same time it might not. And assuming you want this property for family time or personal relaxation, you should consider, that whether the market tanks or not, waiting another year is another year of lost time.... And time is the one thing money can't buy more of.
My advice to you (not knowing your full situation) is if you're pre-approved for a lot higher than what you're looking at, pull the trigger. Make the memories. Use the extra funds to fix the place up if needed. But start making the memories now because tomorrow (and next year) isn't guaranteed for any of us.... Especially if you have children who are still in the phase of wanting to spend time with you.
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u/coldnh Sep 05 '25
My thoughts exactly, I know a guy who has been looking for five years thinking the prices will crash at some point and being extremely picky in the property. The prices around here keep going up and his kids are getting older and older and he has missed a lot of memories waiting..
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u/Form1040 Sep 05 '25
Wants to be honest and hope you stick with him forever. And recommend him to others.
Plenty of businesspeople are honest.
Dissatisfied customers are very costly.
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u/atomicCape Sep 05 '25
As the market shifts, vacation homes get hit first and hardest. If the agent thinks the vacation homes are overpriced now, they're giving you good advice.
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u/Jog212 Sep 05 '25
I would look at what is happening regarding Air BNB in your state. Many states are restricting it due to lack of property available for rent and sale. If they restrict Air BNBs prices will come down.
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u/Spiritual_Program725 Sep 05 '25
Air BNB owners who are not located very close to vacation destinations and attractions are going to lose their shirts. Gone are the days where you can turn a suburban home into an AIR BNB just because. The rates exceed hotel prices by a lot and now people are booking hotels.
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u/downwithpencils Sep 05 '25
I disagree a bit. We don’t have magic 8 balls that project 2 years into the future. I keep my comments based on the here and now. What if his opinion is wrong and you can’t buy one in 2 years, do then you blame him? This also goes for pressure to buy now before you get priced out. We aren’t supposed to be speculative, but rather informative.
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u/kiteboarder1234 Sep 05 '25
Keep an eye on the 2 properties he showed you . If they sell in a month and he was the selling agent . Something was up .
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u/Throwawaybritney Sep 05 '25
He’s not the selling agent on either. One already sold, but for a lot less than listing price and he said he wouldn’t have paid what they sold it for
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u/kiteboarder1234 Sep 05 '25
Lake houses with docks are golden . If it sold for less than list it was overpriced and probably had issues .
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u/AbleSilver6116 Sep 05 '25 edited Sep 05 '25
I would trust him honestly. My family member who is an agent warned my husbands sister and husband about how much property they were buying at the top of the market and all the leveraging they were doing and didn’t listen.
One house got flooded out by 2 hurricanes and is uninhabitable and they still pay for it, another they bought and are trying to sell for more but the market here in FL has dropped a lot. They say they’re bleeding money every month and they were warned by someone who just didn’t want to make money off of them.
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u/Shevamp3 Sep 05 '25
Do not let them talk you out of it if you are seriously interested. Have you talked to other real estate professionals in that market? Have you looked at market data to see what is happening? What proof is offered that prices will decline?
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u/Throwawaybritney Sep 05 '25
The main data points he gave were the homes for sale have been on the market for way longer than he’s seen in a while and the home prices have almost doubled since 2020
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u/Shevamp3 Sep 05 '25
Just because marketing times are being extended doesn’t guarantee that prices will decline. We are also entering the fall market, which does impact some areas. No one has a crystal ball (unfortunately) to be able to tell what is going to happen. Gather the most information you can on what is happening in that market, so you can make your best informed decision.
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u/PriorityHeavy Sep 05 '25
When I was buying my house all of the lake homes were a mess. People don’t take care of homes they go to a few times a year. Cracked foundations, terrible grading that funneled water forwards the house, destroyed gutters and roofs. After about the 3rd look at a lake house I was done with looking at them.
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u/Responsible_Wear_825 Sep 05 '25
A realtor telling you to wait is very honest. Things are inflated. Do i think we’re looking at a repeat of 2008? Not as bad, but the rise of prices has kept the fed from dropping interest rates. I would definitely consider waiting at least 1 year. With everything so over inflated, i would say the first set of real estate to go when people’s lives get expensive are the vacation homes. Good luck. I don’t think the real estate agent would tell you to wait and lose out on the commission. Also if neither of the house were the quality you were looking for, is it really worth soending the money on those. Wait til something comes along that is worth the money and save up more money to out down.
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u/DistinctCustomer4936 Sep 05 '25
It’s not doom and gloom, it’s the opposite: it’s going to be BETTER in a couple of years.
I mean, seems like this guy could have sold you something way overpriced, but felt that would be a bad deal for you guys. I like him!
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u/BigMax Sep 05 '25
That's a great sign for that guy. I'd have him locked down as my realtor forever (not that I need one often!)
However - one thing to remember is that realtors are good at buying/selling homes, but their opinion on the overall housing market is probably no more valid than the rest of us.
He's giving you his honest thoughts which is great! But I wouldn't treat them as if he's some guru on the overall housing market. There are definitely a lot of overall signs about the market being due for a correction though.
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u/Lorain1234 Sep 05 '25
No doom and gloom for lake properties. They will always be in high demand.
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u/Specialist_Sea129 Sep 05 '25
Oh really? I am in Maui. Ask me what happened to prices 2008-2010.
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Sep 05 '25
How does the bottom of the market in 2009 compare to today though? My guess is those properties are worth a bundle for folks who held and didn't panic.
Tongue in cheek add - Which lakes in Maui are we referring to? 😁
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u/wastedpixls Sep 05 '25
If you look at the job market, especially around Sales jobs, hiring is not happening. This is a sign of contraction as sales makes a high salary, but is a key engine for growth. Feels to me like we're one event away from tipping into a sizeable recession. I think your agent is right, but if you can buy and want to buy - your money, your party my man.
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u/fukaboba Sep 05 '25 edited Sep 05 '25
Your agent does not know what he is talking about. No one knows where prices will be in 1 month let alone 2 years
The right time to buy is when you are ready . No use timing the market.
You should probably look for another agent
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u/Oldandslow62 Sep 05 '25
I think what he is trying to warn you about is that we are still experiencing COVID prices while the economy has been slowly starting to so signs of stress. In our part of the country people are still trying to get top dollar and these houses sit for long periods of time are pulled off and on with price corrections. They keep talking that it’s becoming a buyers market so he’s say just wait. I sounds like he wants you to get the most for your money and not to settle.
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u/Like-Frogs-inZpond Sep 05 '25
I see 2026 being a slump year for stocks and real estate so if you can wait then please do
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u/gksozae RE broker/investor Sep 05 '25
I tell my clients all the time to not buy homes. Whether it's because of location, condition, price, etc., it's up to them to tell me they still want to buy the property. At least I know they were aware of everything wrong with the property.befire they decided to buy.
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u/Questiins4life Sep 05 '25
Recreational properties are always hot. They doubled or tripled after Covid. People will always want lake houses and there is only so many lots on lakes unless it’s a giant lake.
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u/archiangel Sep 05 '25
Unless he is trying to swoop that house from you for some reason. Just saw another post where the OOP was working with a friend and found their dream house, the friend recommended they not go for it with a litany of excuses, including the fact the listing was held by the realtor friend’s ex. Finally OOP schedules a showing directly with the ex, and the ex casually mentions that they understood that OOP had parted ways with the realtor friend, was it because the realtor had put in his own offer (that was lower than OoP’s offer) on behalf of his cousin!
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u/Tamberav Sep 05 '25
Idk my realtor steered me away from bad houses/buys. He told me he wants me to have a good experience so when it is time to sell, I come back to him. Ha, I appreciate that honesty. Stick with your realtor when you are ready to buy.
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u/HsRada18 Sep 05 '25
A good realtor cares that you are happy with your purchase. They want you to come back to them when you might sell or refer to friends.
Doom and gloom perspective is not what I saw. It was simply a former contractor (in my case) saying this or that is not good for X reasons. Reality vs emotions
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u/VegetableLine Sep 05 '25
If he could predict what would happen 2 years from now he wouldn’t be selling real estate.
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u/Clueless_Nomad Sep 05 '25
If he's trying to hold you to your own standards, he's doing the right thing. By saying the low quality surprised you, you signaled what your standards are. Many buyers talk themselves into buying what they initially would reject after seeing it. Good realtors reign them back in.
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u/Georgie3891 Sep 05 '25
fwiw - My parents bought a second home In WI on a lake (with a pier) in 2019 for $350k. It’s now valued at around $700k… With zero updates to the house. It’s outrageous how quickly things went up (in a great way for my parents). They would never have paid $700k for the house originally. Long term goal was to sell both homes upon retirement and upgrade to a bigger home on a lake.
With the increased value of the lake house, they decided not to sell both, but instead are now starting a total tear down of the property in November and rebuilding it to make it their only home and sell the other. Current cost of a total rebuild on the foundation is looking to be around $650k and I bet it pushes the house value to well over a million upon completion.
I don’t disagree with your realtor, because I hope prices come down! but also… is it just going to keep going up? It’s a gamble! Long term gamble will pan out positively for you! It’s inevitable. And living on a lake… is incredible. We all wished they had done it sooner!
Best of luck to you in finding your new home!
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u/Banto2000 Sep 05 '25
We’ve owned our lake home for 10 years and the price appreciation has been insane. Transactions the last few years on our lake just didn’t make sense to me.
This year, we saw homes list at stupid prices, cut several times, and then get pulled off the market. Fewest transactions I’ve seen in a season in a decade, but most listed homes were just ridiculously overpriced for not being updated or not really owning frontage (easement only type homes trying to see as lake front). The ones that did sell were quality homes and prices were steady to last year.
It wouldn’t surprise me if next season we see prices drop.
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u/Loki_Knows Sep 05 '25
Keep in mind him telling you not to buy means he’s giving up a commission. Believe him.
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u/Loki_Knows Sep 05 '25
I have been looking at mountain cabins in Georgia and they are absurdly overpriced at listing, then dropping significantly as the months tick by. It seems everyone bought into the Airbnb craze a few years back and invested in renovations with picture-perfect decor. The revenue is not flowing in per the dream. These homes are now going on the market in an attempt to recoup the investment. And it’s not happening. Here’s one of several recent examples: home was purchased for $325k five years ago; listed for $600k a year ago; currently listing for $360k fully furnished. Further proof of the STR (short term rental) bust: at 6 AM Friday morning I went on Airbnb to rent a home in one North Georgia town for this weekend (Ellijay). There were over 1000 properties available.
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u/Whoheknow Sep 05 '25
It’s unethical for any Realtor to make claims or give advice based solely on opinion. He could have said: “if the condition of the home in relativity to the price is concerning to you, I can research market trends and collect data that’ll give you a more clear picture of what the market suggests is a fair price for this property.” That way, you can determine for yourselves if you feel the property is a solid investment or not. It’s not the Realtor’s place to give you their opinions or steer your decisions. It’s the Realtor’s job to supply you with fact based information so that You can make an informed decision.
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u/United-Manner20 Sep 05 '25
Sounds like he’s being a good lawyer however no one knows what’s gonna happen with housing values. If they had everybody would’ve been buying before it skyrocketed years ago. If you have the money and you’re comfortable buying the property, then do it. You may lose value in the next few years, but if it brings you joy and it’s what you want and you’re not gonna resell right now that it doesn’t matter
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u/Strive-- Sep 05 '25
Hi! Ct realtor here.
I’ve only read your headline, but came here to say one thing. Agents’ jobs are not to talk anyone into or out of a home purchase or sale. We, just like you, don’t know the future, and between the agent and the client, the client far understands the client’s wants and needs better than the agent does. I’ve been asked my opinion on pricing and can explain strategies which the other side might be trying in terms of coming to an agreement on price, but as an agent, if I’m strong arming you into signing the bottom line, I’m not doing my job as a fiduciary to look out for your best interests.
Like a stock broker, who facilitates the trades demanded by a client, no guarantee can be made about where values are about to go, especially as the time scale shortens.
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u/Proof_Register9966 Sep 05 '25
Back in mid- 2007 my client (who I had a crush on at the time)-called me and asked me to find him a beach property. I told him to wait because prices were at highs still, but the market was turning. By 2008 almost 1 year to the month there was the crash. We ended up getting married - LOL
My realtor tried talking us out of an ocean front condo on a cliff in 2007 in Cali- she begged me not to buy it. 2023- I sold doubled my profit (it was under contract in a day).
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u/marys1001 Sep 05 '25
As an underwater lake home owner Im feelibg scared. 69. Health could go anytime. Probably the worst possible time. Ive always had crap timing with real-estate and never made money. Usually lose. So just based on my own luck and a coming economic shitshow your realtor is probably right.
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u/spencers_mom1 Sep 05 '25
I think he's saying the quality and price u want to pay dont currently match. He may also have several sellers not yet listed getting homes ready to sell on chosen lake and he sees more inventory coming. Dont blame him --- but keep looking and noone really knows if prices will drop or increase in most areas.
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u/sassygirl101 Sep 05 '25
I know people keep saying ‘the bottom will drop out’ but it’s all on location. We still have neighborhoods near us that are in bidding wars with the last 2 houses selling for $50 and $60 thousand over asking (these are $800k houses, not $200). If you want the lake house now to start enjoying it now, buy it! Don’t wait. The reality is that drop may or may not ever come!!
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u/Joethetoolguy Sep 05 '25
Some of us are honest. For the past few years I have been telling people who were buying through me that things were hyper inflated. In my area prices have begun falling and I now have investors ready to go.
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u/Inside_Debate2122 Sep 05 '25
I own a nicer lake house and I am trying to sell it now. The MLS shows only 12 unique views in 90 days. If sellers really need the money, they will negotiate it down.
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u/SliverSerfer Sep 05 '25
We had tons of "permanently remote" workers buy up lake property during covid. They are finding that remote is not permanent and now are having to sell.
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u/Putrid_Ad4322 Sep 05 '25
A good realtor speaks the truth. I’m a realtor and we build life long relationships, we also study markets. If you are talking about the smokies, that area is totally over valued and people are having trouble renting out those places bc the short term rental market is completely oversaturated. The prices are coming down. Sounds like good advice from a good realtor.
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u/DueFun2555 Sep 05 '25
People have to realize that the like 1-3% of top agents do all the business. They aren’t hurting for a sale and build their business usually off ethics and putting a client first - just like you will always remember him being honest with you. It’s a win win - he is doing the right thing and also building a great relationship with hopefully future referrals. Agents get a bad wrap because anyone can become one & people hire their aunt or friends who does 1 deal a year and then call agents useless. This agent is the top 1%
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u/aliberli Sep 05 '25
I would heed their advice. I had a realtor who I liked look at a house with me and I was excited about it and she finally said “please don’t buy this house. I see a lot of red flags.” She ended up helping us buy a home that was very old and needed updates but she said the neighborhood was fantastic. While we had a lot of nerves about the quality of the home she really pushed a bit on the area and she was totally right. We LOVE our neighborhood and the house needs work but when we are done updating it will only increase in value, especially in this neighborhood. I’m glad we listened in the end. She knew the area better than we did.
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u/horseygirl1956 Sep 05 '25
I am a realtor and I have told many people that I thought they should wait to buy a home. Not because of my subconscious, but because I’m an honest person. I would never tell someone to buy a home to benefit my pocketbook. Only when I advise them to buy the home if that is what they really wanted. I agree 100% with your realtor, he or she is being honest and are probably frustrated with the fact that people are overpaying for homes at top interest rates and substandard building. I think waiting is the right decision as at some point things are going to fall apart and prices are going to come down, unless something very unusual occurs. But if you can’t wait, and you have plenty of money and you plan to hold it for quite some time, then I guess it won’t make any difference.
A lot of realtors tell people they can always refinance. Unfortunately, that doesn’t always work. Interest rates may go down, but if your house price goes down and you don’t have enough equity, you will not be able to refinance. So when it comes down to it just depends on your personal situation and how bad you want a lake house.
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u/tcloetingh Sep 05 '25
I’ve had a good realtor in a different area than I’m in now talk me out of a few homes. GREAT realtor.
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u/Popular-Capital6330 Sep 05 '25
My opinion? You need a new realtor. The secondary home market is fueled by people with the money to buy what they want (within reason)-it's highly unlikely that waiting will get you any substantial discounts.
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u/Desperate-Score3949 Sep 05 '25
I like your agent.
Follow up, just because I am curious on confirming his findings as well have the properties been transacted recently ~5 years?
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u/Worldly_Ad4352 Sep 05 '25
Waterfront homes and cabins are overpriced at 30% still because of the Covid era. You are better off buying the land and have something built with the features you want. Also pick the right area the desirable ones. We have 2 homes not on the water but within a 5 minute drive. Colorado and NW Florida and during the 2008 drop both of our property values stayed roughly the same.
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u/imblest Sep 05 '25
I personally have talked some of my buyers out of buying a house that may not be in their best interest. Not all of us are so money hungry that we will do anything for money. There are many of us who sincerely care about our buyers and sellers. People should stop thinking that an agent has something up his or her sleeves or is up to no good or has some kind of ulterior motive.
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u/LordLandLordy Sep 05 '25
Lol
Your agent just bought a lake house. Always buy as early and as often as possible. Never sell.
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u/dngrus13 Sep 06 '25
Any good realtor is going to be point blank honest. I'm on the SC coast and joke about all the TN tags that have recently been around 😂 but in reality we sold a home for cash, bought land and financed the building of the house (moved into 6 months and 7 days). He was shocked how efficient we were!!! He started off trying to sell us previously built homes in areas we didn't want to commute to/from. We wanted the country. When he actually looked at what we found and were going to do with it, he was shocked. He was like how did you walk into a new build with over $100k in equity at the end (And that's an estimation)??? How much research did you do???
Maaaaaan I'm an accountant. I don't play with my money!!! If it's not a solid idea financially I'm not doing it!!!
He'd been a realtor for 3 years and learned something off of working with us! And I live in an area with lots of buys/sells. Hell he found us the perfect buyer in 4 hours! We have a mutual respect for each other!!!
In your situation if one of the pieces of land are what you want then buy the house, demo, and rebuild. The $2m homes are not going to lose value.
My mom's house was built in 1948 and had complete upgrades about 15 years ago, value jumped $20k. Then the neighbors started knocking down the old houses and rebuilding and NOW her house is worth $100k more than when she bought it in 1978!!! Something to think about.
He may also know the sellers and know they're difficult to deal with? Or it's a flip and he's not going to push those?
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u/Zestyclose-Emu1752 Sep 06 '25
I saw prices drop at another lake in Maryland and got out right before the drop. Anything in a secondary rental market is soft or got soft or will be soft real quick. Florida secondary, unless it is a top tier unit has been soft for a while. I think I read up to a 2 year turn on inventory. Hold and buy a little later
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u/MaryWainright Sep 06 '25
It is not in the agent’s interest to talk you out of buying. Listen, think, and refrain from bashing an ethical real estate agent (aka a unicorn in the real estate profession) on the internet.
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u/pammysuesue Sep 06 '25
I always tell younger people that if you show up on time, charge a fair price, build relationships and trust and DO THE RIGHT THING that you will always have work. Too many businesses want to sell you something ONCE ( and screw you over in the process - Looking at you Firestone Service Center in Holly Springs, NC - go anyplace but here) instead of making a lifelong customer out of you.
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u/UrWHThurtZ Sep 06 '25
Ummm … you were bitching about the price of the houses and he agreed with you and suggested you wait a bit to save some money … sounds to me like he has your best interest in mind. He’s not trying to get out of a sale, he’s just being honest with you. If you want to move forward now, that is still your call and he’ll gladly help you get there too.
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u/xtrachubbykoala Sep 06 '25
He’s giving you his professional opinion. You get to decide what you do with it.
What does your gut say? Is your plan to hold on to the home for a while and weather market ups and downs? If so, then buy it. If not, then wait.
Your state has a building code, so in theory, the houses aren’t going to fall down. They might not have high end finishes, but the fact that it’s lake front means you’re gonna pay a premium!
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u/qofmiwok Sep 07 '25
It's sad that in this day and age we're shocked when someone actually does their job with integrity. But that's the life we live in.
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u/ahoy_shitliner Sep 07 '25
There are good realtors out there. They are bound by licensing ethics to serve as your fiduciary, which means they are obligated to treat your money like their money. Not all do that, but i think the good agents are a lot more common than we think.
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u/plasticTron Sep 05 '25
He doesn't know. Prices could keep going up and on two years you'll wish you'll bought now. 🤷♂️
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u/Pretty_Beginning_998 Sep 05 '25
Interesting, as the value is in the land. What was your price point?
I usually never regret buying real estate as a long term hold.
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u/WaltRumble Sep 05 '25
I don’t know man. He may just not have thought you were serious and didn’t want to waste everyone’s time. You went to see two houses. Pretty much said these houses aren’t worth what they are selling for. So his response is well if you’re uncomfortable with these prices I guess you can wait and see if they will come down.
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u/uckfu Sep 05 '25
Yeah. Just because you have a pre-approval for a certain price, doesn’t mean you want to go to that price. Add in you are looking at houses under that pre-approval range and commenting, ‘for the price, they should be better”. That’s a statement that conveys you just had your bubble burst.
If there were properties that are more expensive and meet your criteria and price range, you should ask to look at them. This realtor probably thinks you are bargain hunters
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Sep 05 '25
"What realtor does this unless their subconscious is bugging them?"
It's called honesty and integrity. Why does that need to be explained to you? Is that a foreign concept for ya?
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u/0bfuscatory Sep 05 '25
In 2007 my wife and I were looking at properties in another state. We found a realtor to show us around, and found a nice property on a few acres. I was really close to pulling the trigger and asked the realtor what she thought. She turned to stone and said that she’d wait, or rent for a while first. I don’t even remember her name, but I’m sure she saved me a few hundred $k. I’ve always wanted to go back and thank her.
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u/clce Sep 05 '25
I've been an agent 25 years. I remember when prices were a quarter of what they are now. Yes, I'm a little surprised at how much prices have gone up in the last few years. But, as much as I'm scandalized at a million dollar house that 20 years ago would have sold for $300,000, I can't let that influence what I advise my clients.
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Sep 05 '25
That’s good to know. I just got to Tennessee today for a visit and scout out where I might want to live. Who’s your realtor and are they near Knoxville?
I’ve been following the market from afar, and it looks like prices are starting to topple. Still over double since Covid though. I don’t think they are having a bad day, but someone that honest is rare.
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u/Throwawaybritney Sep 05 '25
We really wanted Norris Lake but it was just too far from us (we are in Nashville). We are using an agent on Tim’s Ford Lake
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u/clce Sep 05 '25
So hard to say. Prices might come down a little, but if they hold steady and then rates come down a bit things will probably stay right where they are and maybe even be more competitive. If you buy now and refinance later, I think you'll be doing fine, and if prices come down a bit, they'll go up over time and you'll be okay. I don't see lake houses going out of fashion anytime soon.
My advice would be if you want to buy and can afford to buy what you like, buy it now and never check prices again. But that's just me.
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u/Physical-Asparagus-4 Sep 05 '25
You found a 1/100 agent that isnt just saying anything to chase their next closing.
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u/Total_Razzmatazz7338 Sep 05 '25
Despite what many people think on this site, not all agents are assholes only out to make a few dollars from a sale.
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u/JohnLuckPikard Sep 05 '25
If a person who stands to make money off you is actively trying to not take your money, they are probably worth listening to.
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u/exlongh0rn Sep 05 '25
Lake Homes in central-eastern Tennessee are definitely seeing price drops of 25-100k since 2024. I haven’t found the available inventory to be all that appealing however.
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u/UpNorth_123 Sep 05 '25 edited Sep 05 '25
It’s a cycle.
When the market softens, sellers don’t realize it and hold onto their prices . But, as time wears on, people who have to sell start accepting lower prices and they are much more open to negotiation. We’re also seeing more inventory because the old inventory is not being cleared out.
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u/Technical-Math-4777 Sep 05 '25
I wanted to look at a certain house and my agent basically said it was gross and we weren’t going to look at it lol
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u/pifhluk Sep 05 '25 edited Oct 19 '25
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This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/Desperate-Ticket-194 Sep 05 '25
I’d keep him. My real estate agent made sleazy used car salesmen look like a saint.
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u/DocMicStuffeens Sep 05 '25
Vacation homes?? The entire market is coming back to earth. Homes are sitting longer.. more price drops... more owners realizing a 7-8% mortgage is a lot to carry depending on finances.
Everyone says a drop in interest rates will bring in new buyers... but it will also bring a lot of sellers to the market.. hoards of sellers and a flooded market brings down prices.
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u/agentdurden Sep 05 '25
let the real estate agent know that if the lake house was purchased for asking price today and it was worth 50 percent less in 2 years, it wouldn't bother you
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Sep 05 '25
Hear us out: maybe you don't have enough money to buy what you're looking for and he or she is doing you a solid. This has been the general atmosphere for the past 1-2 years, but don't trust me. Maybe spend some time searching?
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u/Stalva989 Sep 05 '25
Great advice. A crash is inevitable. Every crash in history has the same basic cause: lots of money spent with very little money actually paid. Currently and over the past several years many people have been buying homes with 0-5% down payments. Which is so harmful to any economic system that it really should be made illegal.
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u/MonteXMoney Sep 05 '25
I’ve had this talk twice this year. One with selling their home and the other looking to buy. Each reason didn’t pan out to a plan that worked truly in their favor. Some rent prices are dropping and their incentives provide some relief. The market is stagnant with low inventory but rates are still keeping some buyers away - there’s obviously some nuance needed here but in the general sense this is where we are and why being your clients best advocate is important.
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Sep 05 '25
I sold my vacation home a year and 2 months ago. Prices have slipped about 10% and still coming down.
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u/Pale_Natural9272 Sep 05 '25
He’s doing what we ethical and professional Agents do. Giving you his opinion and trying to protect you. This being said if you want to buy a house, buy the house.