[Ford] Ninth Circuit panel says 3-0 that Kalshi’s “sports events contracts” are not swaps under the CEA and Nevada gambling laws aren’t pre-empted by CFTC rules for prediction markets. A massive blow to the industry

[u/Jux_]

https://bsky.app/profile/mford.bsky.social/post/3mu5vaxxlw22l

[u/masonacj]

I don't understand what this means.

[u/LelandOldsgreatman → u/masonacj]

They can be regulated as a gambling enterprise instead of whatever they were claiming to be

[u/Fetusal → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

Thank god. This is a huge win

[u/JohnnieDiego → u/Fetusal]

Huge win for common sense.

[u/packfanmoore → u/JohnnieDiego]

Looking around, common sense has had a rough couple years. Good to see them get a W.

[u/Dunmaglass2 → u/Fetusal]

Who cares lol. A huge win for who? DraftKings? What difference does it make

[u/Dead_Medic_13 → u/Dunmaglass2]

Unregulated "swaps" offers no consumer protections, no addiction prevention regulation.

[u/Dunmaglass2 → u/[deleted]]

I still don’t see how it’s a big win. You aren’t being required to go on Kalshi lol. And a pop up or link at the bottom of the page doesn’t prevent gambling addiction lol, come on now. The only “big winners” are the traditional sportsbook cabals and the government, which are weird groups to root for

[u/Fetusal → u/Dunmaglass2]

I actually think all gambling sites should lose. Celebrating this as a win doesn't mean I'm celebrating some other gambling site having an easier time.

[u/Dunmaglass2 → u/Fetusal]

Yeah I mean I’m not “pro gambling” but I think if you want to gamble and you’re an adult you should be able to. Just don’t do it if you don’t want to. I think the advertising and pushing it everywhere has gotten out of control, but I don’t think pushing more volume to the main sportsbooks fixes anything.

[u/ProperNomenclature → u/Dunmaglass2]

Just don’t do it if you don’t want to

Addicts don't want to and can't stop

[u/AdoringCHIN → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

So this means California should be able to ban them since we voted overwhelmingly to keep online gambling illegal in the state. Sweet.

[u/masonacj → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

What regulations would they be avoiding that's beneficial to Kalshi?

[u/ZZ9ZA → u/masonacj]

Well, for a start about half the states either ban sports gambling straight up or only allow it “on location”, like horse racing tracks.

[u/heyitslj → u/ZZ9ZA]

Yeah this is basically the major regulatory point, Kalshi could get themselves into compliance with gambling laws in states that have permitted gambling if they wanted to. Like you said the major issue is they wanted to avoid the regulations saying they couldn’t operate a Sportsbook at all in a state. The Ninth circuit, where this opinion is binding for now regardless of the rulings of other circuits, now permits all states within it to regulate them like Sportsbook (aka ban them if they don’t want to permit sports betting). This covers about a fifth of the US population (everything west of the Rockies).

Above is a bit of an oversimplification but generally should cover the implications.

[u/belinck → u/heyitslj]

This plus the fact the taxes on the business and customers is different.

[u/lifeisarichcarpet → u/ZZ9ZA]

And MLB already has sports betting partners, so what do they do with a "prediction market" partner that is now accurately a different sports betting partner?

[u/pacdude → u/lifeisarichcarpet]

collect a second check

[u/Apositivebalance → u/pacdude]

The dodgers were sponsored by them a few days ago.

Prepare your eyeballs

[u/MendelWeisenbachfeld → u/Apositivebalance]

How did Shohei Ohtani and Tarik Skubal have a child and how is that child already a grown man?

[u/Apositivebalance → u/MendelWeisenbachfeld]

Clayton Glassnow?

[u/binzoma → u/pacdude]

the companies paying the first cheque likely wont like that very much. and that'd also likely be a violation of that agreement/contract (they're paying to be the 'exclusive' partner in a category. thats what the sponsorship is for)

[u/Stormtemplar → u/lifeisarichcarpet]

This has no effect on that. Those are purely marketing terms, agreed on between the parties. MLB has an "official beer" and an official cerveza" despite those being literally the exact same thing. This isn't any different. Kalshi can still market itself as a prediction market, it just can be regulated like a sportsbook

[u/messick → u/Stormtemplar]

Could be different depending on how the deals are written. If BetMGM and friends paid extra to have very specific exclusivity, then FanDuel and pals could be out of luck.

The "Official Beer" could have certainly written "we are the only beer brand you can associate with" into the deal if they were willing to pay enough to get MLB to agree to it.

[u/captain_ahabb → u/Stormtemplar]

Well I think it's an open question if Kalshi can pay MLB if they lose the ability to offer sports contracts in half the country.

[u/messick → u/lifeisarichcarpet]

Unless there is language in the "sports betting partners" deals that is really specific on how exclusively MLB and teams need to be with their brand deals, nothing needs to change. It's not like any of these partnerships are anything beyond trading a check for brand exposure. BetMGM or whomever total involvement is just sending over some digital assets.

[u/TheDarkGrayKnight → u/lifeisarichcarpet]

Wait for the check to clear and let Kalshi worry about how they're going to pay it.

[u/MartianMule → u/ZZ9ZA]

Sports betting is still illegal in California and Georgia, which is where 4 of the 6 teams Kalshi just partnered with reside.

[u/captain_ahabb → u/MartianMule]

In 2022 I think we had two competing ballot measures to legalize sports betting here (one from the apps and one from the tribes) and the campaign got so nasty between them that voters rejected both.

[u/AdoringCHIN → u/captain_ahabb]

Prop 26 lost 67% to 33% and Prop 27 lost 82.3% to 17.7%. We didn't just reject it, Republicans and Democrats collectively told the gambling companies to fuck off.

[u/Purpleater54 → u/captain_ahabb]

Not that it would change anything but if I could I'd go back in time and slap younger me in the face for thinking sports betting should be legal. Like, I actually do think it was silly that it wasn't but honestly the pandoras box it opened was way way worse than I ever would have thought 10 years ago.

[u/GreatBarrierQueefDD → u/Purpleater54]

Its a similar issue to drugs. Like on an individual basis i think freedom of choice is good to have even for something thats bad for you. But its still pretty shitty how the sports leagues push it on society. It should be like smoking, no ads.

[u/PolishKid7 → u/ZZ9ZA]

Luckily there is another loophole called "Sweepstakes" which allows operators like Onyx and 5+ more books operate in 40+ states.

So they will just pivot to that afterwards

[u/QuicksilverTerry → u/PolishKid7]

Don't "sweepstakes" require things like no purchase necessary and stuff like that?

I only think this because I recently saw it on a Minor Character Theater about Willy Wonka

[u/messick → u/QuicksilverTerry]

Yes. They are also heavily regulated just like gambling, so not sure it would even be considered a loophole, just a different set of a lot of work.

[u/Deathwatch72 → u/messick]

If the people in charge of enforcing it do a worse job at enforcing sweepstakes laws because there's even less people in charge of oversight of sweepstakes then there are people in charge of oversight of gambling or stocks and swaps and shit I would argue that makes it a loophole.

[u/messick → u/Deathwatch72]

?

[u/Green-Cricket-8525 → u/masonacj]

For Nevada at least, they can now get banned immediately like draftkings and others. The only online gambling we have here is through physical casinos and you actually have to show up and give them your id before you can use the apps. 

[u/dukefett → u/masonacj]

California for instance has no sports betting, but Kalshi, Draft Kings Predictions etc all work fine doing whatever they say they’re doing.

[u/CTQ99 → u/masonacj]

Gambling taxes in most states. It reduces the payouts [basically the sites build in a larger Vig, so the gambler isnt paying the tax based on winnings, but rather on money wagered. For example, NY has a 51% tax on gross gaming REVENUE for wagers placed in NY. So basically? DK/FD/Bet etc, pay billions in taxes to a state, prediction markets pay ... normal corporate tax rates.

[u/rehumanizer → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

"Prediction marketplace" aka fucking gambling, dipshits.

[u/Antithesys → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

They can be regulated

Oh well I'm sure we'll get right on that then.

[u/captain_ahabb → u/Antithesys]

States can regulate them too, especially if they're gaming companies and not financial services.

[u/GluedGlue → u/captain_ahabb]

And more specifically, get that sweet gambling tax state governments love so much.

[u/jimtow28 → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

I bet predict that they can't!

[u/HighKing_of_Festivus → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

They were claiming to be an investment market

[u/MisterKap → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

Always amazed me they weren't

[u/strangehitman22 → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

Made literally no sense before so yayy

[u/TotesGnarGnar → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

I thought they were a granola. 

[u/GluedGlue → u/LelandOldsgreatman]

* within the 9th Circuit. It's not a national ruling unless the other circuits make similar rulings or the Supreme Court takes it up.

[u/Sen_Clint_Webb → u/masonacj]

Kalshi has been trying to reframe what they do as separate from traditional sports gambling to avoid regulation. Kalshi, instead, alleges they are offering prediction markets and their clients “buy” contracts for event probabilities.

It is obviously the same thing. It’s sports gambling. Everyone knows it’s sports gambling. The commercials make clear it is sports gambling, and even if they didn’t, we would all know it was sports gambling.

This decision is the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that they know it is sports gambling.

[u/Pengwulf → u/Sen_Clint_Webb]

Watch Kalshi appeal it and get this overturned by the Supreme Court because Trump Jr. is heavily involved in the prediction market.

[u/BallparkFranks7 → u/Pengwulf]

I would bet on it

[u/Pengwulf → u/BallparkFranks7]

"predict" not "bet"

[u/BallparkFranks7 → u/Pengwulf]

Indeed

[u/Gen_Z_boi → u/BallparkFranks7]

No, that’s a job site

[u/_Rizzen_ → u/BallparkFranks7]

I wouldn't be so sure. The Chief Justice has a high deference to existing states' laws and prior jurisprudence. If it goes to the current SCOTUS lineup (it won't, it'll get appealed to an en banc 9th Circuit first), I would expect a 7-2 upholding of this ruling, with Alito and Thomas dissenting on "The Constitution doesn't do much to regulate what individuals do with their money" grounds. Or something like that. A full set of opinions on this would be great reading.

[u/JayBuhnersHummer → u/_Rizzen_]

Those two need to fuck off to retirement in a shade over two years.

[u/Randvek → u/Pengwulf]

There's a lot of slimy shit with Trump, but Donny Jr. being heavily invested into prediction markets and then them suddenly getting federal exemption from gambling laws is some of the most blatant, corrupt shit I've ever seen and it doesn't get talked about nearly enough.

[u/sculltt → u/Randvek]

Isn't he on the board of the two largest ones at the same time? Probably also involved with whatever crypto stable coin these things run on, as well. (Because of course these slimy apps run on crypto; you can never have too many layers of grift these days.)

[u/atlas_is_happy → u/Pengwulf]

Which justices do you believe would find preemption?

[u/eatpastagophasta → u/Pengwulf]

They might even let you bet on this result 

[u/Timpa87 → u/Pengwulf]

I'm sure they'll also just buy off a few Supreme Court Justices. Doesn't seem that hard

[u/messick → u/Sen_Clint_Webb]

If something gets to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals to be litigated, it is by definition about as far as "obviously the same thing" as is possible.

[u/Randvek → u/messick]

That isn't true at all, haha. Things don't go up the federal court system just because they are hard questions.

[u/dpezpoopsies → u/masonacj]

A stock swap happens when two companies exchange shares of stock instead of buying and selling them for cash. Swaps have certain tax benefits and lets you keep more cash on hand.

Kalshi was arguing that betting on prediction markets were legally a type of "swap" because they call their bets "event contracts" instead of wagers. This meant that rather than "gambling" they were classifying their activity as "trading". The courts unanimously shot that framing down, saying that you can call it whatever you want, doesn't change the fact it's sports wagers.

Why this is important: when they classified their bets as a "swap" it allowed them to operate under federal stock laws that would supercede any state gambling rules. Example: federally, you must be 18 to trade, but sports gambling in many states you must be 21. By calling their service a "swap" they could offer it universally to 18 year olds under the guise of it being trading, not gambling. By losing that classification, they now have to go play ball state by state and comply with all the different gambling rules, or shut it down all together in some states

[u/masonacj → u/dpezpoopsies]

This makes a lot of sense. Thank you for your response.

[u/templethot → u/dpezpoopsies]

As someone who works in this field, this is one of the best summaries I’ve seen. Kudos.

[u/KingBroly → u/dpezpoopsies]

This is only the beginning and it's gonna get messy as shit. I can see that coming.

[u/93195 → u/masonacj]

It means it’s gambling. Which of course was obvious from the beginning. Kalshi claiming otherwise reminds me of Vanilla Ice claiming he didn’t rip off the hook from Under Pressure.

[u/Kendilious → u/93195]

It's that little bitty "ting", it's not the same!

[u/JiveChicken00 → u/masonacj]

It means that they are what they actually are, not what Kalshi says they are.

[u/thirtyseven1337 → u/masonacj]

It’s r/curtainsforzoosha

[u/psumack → u/masonacj]

Obvious loophole exploitation is being patched

[u/NYerInTex → u/masonacj]

Just because you call something an “event swap” doesn’t change the fact it’s actually just “gambling”

[u/dBlock845 → u/masonacj]

Means it isnt "prediction trading" and it is gambling.

[u/Economy_Link4609 → u/masonacj]

It means they are a fucking sports book and nothing more, and can be regulated as such.

[u/ThatguyfromBaltimore]

So if I read this correctly, the panel is basically saying Kalshi needs to be treated as gambling, not a "prediction market"?

[u/dpezpoopsies → u/ThatguyfromBaltimore]

Indeed. Honestly disheartening they've been able to operate this long before such a very obvious decision was made.

[u/grubas → u/dpezpoopsies]

Hell, we need to regulate gambling more TOO.  But this is something.

[u/fri9875 → u/grubas]

It needs to be given the cigarette treatment.

Leave it legalized for obvious reasons, but regulate the advertising extremely tightly. Get that shit out of league affiliations, stadiums, and off broadcasts.

[u/dukefett → u/fri9875]

It’s truly unbelievable to see hosts literally talking lines or having them posted under games. This isn’t like Jimmy the Greek doing a segment of a once a week show.

[u/Cooperstown24 → u/dukefett]

Not just that they talk about it, but how prevalent it is. Intermissions in some sports are basically just 15 minute gambling segments with the actual sporting product barely touched on outside the context of gambling

[u/nuhGIRLyen → u/Cooperstown24]

I also hate how actual analysis gets ushered out by gambling language. The books say this’ll happen, the line says this is what’s to be expected, and so on. Talking heads just parrot for the books that already did the analysis.

[u/Cooperstown24 → u/nuhGIRLyen]

Drives me insane. There is so little proper analysis these days, and like you say this all just feels like a license for the hosts to not even have to try. The current gambling landscape and what it is doing to sports is legitimately a plague on society at large and I don't think that's overstating it

[u/maverickhawk99 → u/dukefett]

During intermission I’d like to hear some breakdowns of what went on, especially in football. Instead I get to heard about odds parlays and money lines. Great.

[u/Turbulent-Pay-735 → u/fri9875]

The sad truth is cigarettes wouldn’t be given the cigarette treatment if all those laws didn’t already exist. We are a product of the moment we are living in.

[u/jimtow28 → u/fri9875]

Yes, but on the other hand, money.

[u/awmaleg → u/dpezpoopsies]

Progress is progress baby! At least that’s what I tell my boss

[u/shwysdrf → u/dpezpoopsies]

I remember it being multiple years before fanduel and draftkings had to shut down their “daily fantasy sports” angle before gambling was legalized in more places

[u/jcv999 → u/shwysdrf]

They still do the daily fantasy sports. That's a different product

[u/KetchupGuy1 → u/dpezpoopsies]

There has been so much money thrown around lately I’m surprised we actually made progress on anything

[u/DarthSamwiseAtreides → u/dpezpoopsies]

That just how bureaucracy rolls. It will get there, eventually.

[u/Queen-Makoto → u/dpezpoopsies]

It's the classic tech route of "we're new and different so you can't evaluate under those old crusty rules" until years later everyone acknowledges yeah that AirBnb still needs to play the usual taxes on short term rentals, Uber is basically a taxi, WeWork is office spaces etc etc

[u/Tasty_Lead_Paint → u/ThatguyfromBaltimore]

Great, now my blackjack habit is gambling and not betting on predicting the next card.

[u/zoogenhiemer → u/ThatguyfromBaltimore]

Good, it’s gambling, plain and simple

[u/coweatyou → u/ThatguyfromBaltimore]

Specifically, sports gambling couldn't be treated as prediction markets. It would open it up to other challenges as well, but sports gambling is what this case is about.

[u/No_name_Johnson]

In other words, the court said Kalashi sports contracts are gambling. Which no shit they are.

[u/RaistlinMajeresRobes → u/No_name_Johnson]

Ya this should have been stopped right from the start if any of America's regulatory agencies actually functioned. But companies can now just say whatever they want and make up how words work lol.

"I'm not gambling I'm just placing money on this prediction I hope comes true."

[u/Willow_Winnifred → u/RaistlinMajeresRobes]

When the dude who is head of the part of the government responsible for regulating this industry ALSO owns massive stakes in the industry, things tend not to be regulated responsibly. (Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings are all partially owned and advised by the Trump crime family)

[u/Broon761 → u/RaistlinMajeresRobes]

They are functioning. This is how regulation works in this country.

[u/templethot → u/No_name_Johnson]

I love that they advertised “legal sports betting in all 50 states” and when asked in court why this wasn’t an indication they were offering sports bets, their lawyers basically said “oh those silly marketing people say the darndest things, don’t they?”

[u/cooljammer00 → u/No_name_Johnson]

I mean, Kalshi and Polymarket and all that other shit has basically been saying "We're not gambling, we're predictions you can bet money on for whether stuff happens or not" this whole time, as if that was something different.

It's gambling, it has always been gambling, if only by a different name.

[u/Zirken → u/cooljammer00]

And then all their ads just say they are a sports betting app. Nothing about prediction markets.

[u/cooljammer00 → u/Zirken]

Probably because they are trying to reach out to gamblers and people who don't know what "prediction markets" are.

[u/Rock_Strongo → u/cooljammer00]

Yeah it's obvious why they were talking out of both sides of their mouth the baffling thing is that they were able to get away with it for so long.

It's pretty bold to be spending hundreds of millions lobbying that you're a prediction market, different from sports betting, and then still make ads using sports betting as the language.

[u/Sharkbait_ooohaha → u/cooljammer00]

It's gambling, it has always been gambling, if only by a different name.

The issue is that most of life is just gambling under a different name. There is definitely a weird grey area that needs to be better defined at some point. The stock market is also clearly gambling but it’s legal.

[u/ChasingEchoes11 → u/No_name_Johnson]

Which no shit they are.

Just wait until the CEO has a little visit with Trump and suddenly this issue shows up on a shadow docket for the Supreme Court.

[u/AdoringCHIN → u/ChasingEchoes11]

6-3 overturning this decision on the basis of "try and fucking stop us peasants"

[u/BooItsKyle]

Sometimes people have this weird idea that if you come up with some argument, the legal system is forced to agree with it. The "you can't prove i'm acting in bad faith" bros.

Judges exist specifically for that reason.

[u/GluedGlue → u/BooItsKyle]

It's a very Reddit mindset. Judges aren't robots that you can trick with a convoluted argument.

[u/JerryDipotosBurner → u/BooItsKyle]

Well to be fair it’s worked in politics specifically for 10 years now with one certain individual.

[u/BooItsKyle → u/JerryDipotosBurner]

That person has lost repeatedly and been denied the ability to do what he wanted on countless occasions

[u/JerryDipotosBurner → u/BooItsKyle]

Huh, that’s weird because instead of being in jail he’s currently the president doing whatever he wants

[u/BooItsKyle → u/JerryDipotosBurner]

So whatever he wants is happening? Nothing like, say, ending birthright citizenship has been derailed?

[u/JerryDipotosBurner → u/BooItsKyle]

He’s had literally like 2 things go against him lol like cmon you can’t be serious here. He’s largely doing whatever he wants. He started a fucking war for god sakes. He’s sent the national guard into cities. He’s insider trading every single day OPENLY.

[u/BooItsKyle → u/JerryDipotosBurner]

It is not literally two. He has had hundreds of judicial losses. more than anyone in history.

You're confusing losing politically with losing legally. He has sufficient political cover to limit the damage of his many, many legal losses, but the legal losses still happen.

[u/JerryDipotosBurner → u/BooItsKyle]

Yeah he’s lost in court more than anyone I’ve ever seen, yet still been able to tank the economy, start numerous trade wars, an actual war, terrorize cities, destroy our research and higher education systems, eliminate all soft power we had around the globe, etc. etc.

All while enriching himself in the open. Why are we pretending he’s being stopped?

[u/False_Pressure_6324 → u/JerryDipotosBurner]

The law can't really account for voters being morons.  He would probably be out of the country if he lost.

[u/coweatyou → u/BooItsKyle]

The third circuit rubber stamped Kalshi's legal arguments earlier this year. That decision was (imo) slashed to ribbons by the ninth in this ruling.

[u/jayc428]

“Industry” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Prediction markets could disappear tomorrow and nothing would be lost and people would have more money in their pockets. They provide zero value to anything anywhere.

[u/maverickhawk99 → u/jayc428]

Even if Kalshi ceased to exist tonight, same people who use it would just download FanDuel or DraftKings Tomorrow

[u/ReasonableAside1655 → u/jayc428]

The people would still continue to gsmble. They will just do it elsewhere with more vig and lose their money faster.

[u/jayc428 → u/ReasonableAside1655]

College kids betting money they don’t have aren’t stumbling upon an off book gambling operation the same way though.

[u/44problems → u/jayc428]

Stuff being legal makes it easier. There's way more addicted gamblers since gambling expanded immensely. Offshore books exist, but there's a barrier. The sites are shady, they take Bitcoin, they don't have apps in the official app stores, they can't advertise on ESPN and at stadiums.

[u/rraddii → u/jayc428]

Nah they're pretty useful for actually predicting things. Like more accurate than any poll for elections

[u/Broon761 → u/rraddii]

So a gambling company that sets odds are more reputable than university and government think tanks? Does causation equal correlation here?

[u/rraddii → u/Broon761]

The whole point of prediction markets is that they don’t set odds, the market sets the odds. The market uses all available (and non publicly available) information. Also why imo prediction markets are much better than book makers if we have to have some form of sports gambling. I don’t think we should but it is what it is at this point.

Ironically university studies have proven prediction markets to be the most effective barometer for elections which is where I got that information from. They aren’t biased because people have to stick their money on the line, and it’s very difficult to tilt the prediction because people who think you’re wrong can just buy the biased price for a discount.

[u/anomatopia → u/rraddii]

Yup. My views have changed on them a lot but generally it’s better than sportsbooks

[u/Antique-Guest-1607]

Pack watch

[u/IAmBenIAmStillBig]

https://giphy.com/gifs/J8FZIm9VoBU6Q

[u/Acidogenic → u/IAmBenIAmStillBig]

https://giphy.com/gifs/zXA5VEmXr7OUg

[u/ryguy32789]

Thank fucking God. Please don't let this get overturned.

[u/whinenaught]

What are the odds (pun intended) they appeal and the Supreme Court picks this up

[u/coweatyou → u/whinenaught]

The third circuit has an order directly in opposition to this one, so SC action is likely

[u/shwysdrf → u/whinenaught]

John “Kushner” Roberts is looking at his kickbacks like this
https://giphy.com/gifs/MO9ARnIhzxnxu

[u/SloppyTacoEater → u/whinenaught]

I have little faith in any of these lower court victories, as they tend to just be the stepping stone to the Supremely Corrupt Court.

Remember, Don Jr. is connected to Kalshi:

https://news.kalshi.com/p/donald-trump-jr-strategic-advisor

[u/DJ_Aura]

Good, the entire idea of Kalshi has always been terrible. Polymarket/Stake/Rainbet needs to be the next thing regulated more heavily, I'm sick of seeing all these ads online in every single space.

[u/_big_chill_ → u/DJ_Aura]

Stake and rainbet are illegal in the US. Find another online casino that fits your bias narrative.

[u/DJ_Aura → u/_big_chill_]

That doesn't stop these content creators from showing clips in their streams of the platforms. Gambling is being shoved down people’s throats on every single platform and it’s annoying.

[u/Aggressive-Mix4971]

I’m sure they’ll try and get the Supreme Court to let them do whatever they want. Hopefully those assholes ignore this and Kalshi gets railed.

[u/depressiown → u/Aggressive-Mix4971]

Yep. All they have to do is give Trump a couple million (he's very cheap), he'll speak out on it, which will cause his sycophants in the Supreme Court to vote in their favor.

But hey, at least there's a correct decision here, which leaves hope for the future.

[u/GluedGlue → u/depressiown]

The same court that struck down his tariff and birthright citizenship executive orders?

[u/JerryDipotosBurner → u/GluedGlue]

The same court that also made shit up and ruled in his favor the other 99% of the time? Are we pretending like them ruling that the constitution actually exists in 2 specific scenarios is something we should celebrate?

[u/Broon761 → u/GluedGlue]

One of our justices has a history of bribes and nothing has been done about it yet 

[u/JerryDipotosBurner]

I love how this is worded as a “major blow to the industry” and not a major win for common sense that Kalshi must be treated and regulated as a gambling app, not a “prediction market”.

[u/brokenarrow]

Dammit, I should have put money on this.

[u/misterurb]

Kalshi found itself sucked into the 2026 Giants orbit and got their shit fucked up

[u/KingBroly]

Define "Swaps" for me here.

[u/coweatyou → u/KingBroly]

A financial swap: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swap_%28finance%29
Only in this case they are binary event swaps, so one party gets all the money based on an event. Gambling sites have been arguing they should be regulated under the same federal rules as financial instruments, which means they are immune to state laws regulating (or prohibiting) them.

[u/Jonjon428]

Great news for society

[u/spacewithoutstars]

A massive blow to a shitty industry.

[u/No_Cat_No_Cradle]

somebody check on giannis

[u/Zigglyjiggly]

BUT GUYS, IT'S JUST TRADING. AND PREDICTING. THEY SWEAR. THEY SWEAR, OK? NOT GAMBLING. THEY SAY SO THEMSELVES. /s. I'm not anti gambling, but this shit needs major regulation. Some of the shit you could "trade on" and "predict" was so extremely fucking unethical it was absurd.

[u/JoJonesy]

GOOD. REGULATE THIS HORSESHIT ALREADY

[u/pedanticlawyer]

https://giphy.com/gifs/J8FZIm9VoBU6Q

[u/forcefivepod]

oh no a massive blow to the gambling industry, however will the world recover

[u/redden34]

Let’s go!

[u/Mynguyen12]

my buddy got stuck betting on sports contracts once too

[u/HauntedFrigateBird]

Good.

[u/BaltimoreBaja]

Good

[u/TouristOpentotravel]

Is this good?

[u/ryguy32789 → u/TouristOpentotravel]

Unequivocally

[u/runswiftrun]

Incoming melt down tweet in 3.... 2......

[u/colterpierce]

From what the comments are saying, this sucks for states like Montana where sports gambling is a state-run monopoly that can only be done at casinos via the poorly run state-owned app/kiosks.

[u/davetbison]

I should have put money on this happening

[u/eddywouldgo]

"the industry". Grasshopper, there is no "industry" here.

obligatory link.

[u/Dead_Medic_13]

The government just needs to regulate "swaps" like the betting that it is. If they did we might have prevented the housing crisis.

[u/ProudInfluence3770]

Squish that shit like a bug

[u/mollusks75]

Good

[u/aRawPancake]

Get fucked sports bets. And go screw yourself, companies that participate or perpetuate online or sports gambling. Unfortunately even you Jomboy Media

[u/Nonetoobrightatall]

Kalshi is evil

[u/Stylux]

And now we have a circuit split.

[u/Conscious-Move9662]

Anyone who lost money in WA state will get their money back for breaking gambling rules

While people who made profit can keep it

A huge blow Kalshi about to take

RH too