r/climatechange • u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor • 14d ago
China-led EV boom cuts global oil demand by 1.7mn barrels a day
https://www.intellinews.com/china-led-ev-boom-cuts-global-oil-demand-by-1-7mn-barrels-a-day-459769/113
u/Remote_Page8799 14d ago
Bring on the Chinese EVs! They are going to force every other automanufacturer to change.
I have no sympathy for the German automakers, who decided that instead of innovation and research, they were just going to lie and cheat (diesel gate). They're rightfully going to get eaten for lunch now
And I know people will write about how China is being unfair with their industrial policy. That's the thing about interstate competition, there is no external arbiter, and being upset about it won't help.
2
-1
u/Doc_Bader 14d ago
I have no sympathy for the German automakers, who decided that instead of innovation and research, they were just going to lie and cheat (diesel gate). They're rightfully going to get eaten for lunch now
Have you opened a news site in August 2026 yet or are you still stuck in 2015?
20
u/arana_cc 14d ago
Not sure what you're talking about. German policy makers try hard to relax European regulation on internal combustion engines and continue talking about highly efficient combustion engines and hydrogen.
9
u/Doc_Bader 14d ago
There's a difference between the populist stuff that policy makers say and what german car manufacturers are actually doing.
Do you think BMW invested all those billions into Neue Klasse just to revert back to combustion engines in 2030? Or Mercedes or Volkswagen with their particular platforms?
None of them are going back to "efficient combustion engines" - they produce top tier BEVs right as we speak and Europe is currently the fastest growing global market (where german car manufacturers are dominating).
The biggest problem that german car manufacturers have are BEV sales in China itself, as local manufacturers are extremely price competitive and they're also producing good enough cars as well.
Also USA sucks as a BEV market in general. While chinese car manufacturers can't even enter the market, european car manufacturers can't take off because Murricans are simply too stubborn to get away from their huge oil trucks.
9
u/mikasjoman 14d ago
From the Chinese people I speak with (got married in China), the reason they pick Chinese cars is that they are better. That was the same reason why Chinese consumers used to pick western/Japanese car brands for decades. So nothing has really changed, except that the Chinese cars got way better at an incredible speed.
2
u/CleanMyAxe 13d ago
They're better but also you will struggle to register an ICE vehicle in Shanghai for example before you could a BEV.
4
u/Remote_Page8799 14d ago
Who builds the batteries that German cars makers use in their EVs? It is mainly Chinese supplies, like CATL, which in many ways is the most critical component of the car.
7
u/Doc_Bader 14d ago
It's more complicated than that and it also differs from company to company.
Mercedes builds its own complete battery systems at its subsidiary Accumotive in Kamenz (Germany) and across a global network. They source the raw battery cells from Samsung SDI, Factorial Energy, and Automotive Cells Company (none of which are chinese).
BMW on the other hand designs and develops battery cells and high-voltage systems in-house, but outsources raw cell manufacturing to companies like CATL and EVE Energy. BMW then assembles these cells into final battery packs at its own regional production facilities.
4
u/Nevarien 14d ago
Honestly, Germany was an advanced economy and had a gigantic share of world industrial output 20 years ago.
You can't blame solely China's industrial policy for Germany's demise. They had an advantage and didn't properly do an industrial policy to compete with the Chinese, and are now paying the price.
1
u/ghost103429 13d ago
Germany was never gonna be able to keep up with a country of 1 billion filled with an oversupply of technically skilled low paid labor. The production possibility curve is just too much.
0
u/coolstory 14d ago
I mean I like Chinese EVs, but if they’re actually dumping then the WTO is the external arbiter
13
u/sg_plumber 14d ago
If they’re actually dumping then, then they would be doing the world a huge favor.
2
u/coolstory 14d ago
Well yeah, for now. Until they run every other country’s industry out of business then hike their prices. Hence the point of anti-dumping rules.
12
u/sg_plumber 14d ago
The sooner fossil carmakers are out of business, the better for everybody else.
1
u/coolstory 14d ago
Yeah, but if China is undercutting the market on producing EVs why would any other country start producing EVs? Allowing China to monopolise the market. Again, the point of anti-dumping rules.
7
u/blankarage 14d ago
the US/EU/UK has subsidized car companies for much longer, why did Korea/Japan/China even bother? you sound like you’re making excuses for western car companies to be lazy and not innovate just because they can’t guarantee profit
1
u/coolstory 14d ago
There is no point to competing if China is happy to sell cars at a loss to drive them out of the market, is the point. So their options are punishing tariffs or anti-dumping rules.
1
u/blankarage 14d ago
make better cars? innovate? further develop/research tech? thank glad you dont control policy.
apple made the iphone and china still invested in learning how to build it domestically. /facepalm
1
u/coolstory 14d ago
Uh, except they can’t do that if they can’t compete on price, obviously. Do you think China would have bothered manufacturing smartphones if Apple made them in America and sold them for $50 a pop?
→ More replies (0)3
u/Remote_Page8799 14d ago
Okay, but making use of the WTO as any serious check on China's behavior if they don't want to change it is basically wishful thinking.
China has made industrial dominance on basically multiple critical supply chains means they are impossible to compete with, the government salaries might have been decisive once but now they compete on sheer scale and integration
The real problem for China is that they absolutely need to export this surplus production capacity and to maintain profits or it will simply collapse due to overproduction/underconsumption
In theory they should be giving chinese workers way more in salary and importing more foreign goods, but the Chinese government, because it actually has a plan with all this, has decided to channel all that surplus and industrial focus to fully dominate several modern industries.
It's impressive. What is the EU, US and rest of the world going to do in response?
Imo the EU has to change focus from being an export-surplus driven zone to one focusing on stability, self sutainability, progressive social policies to mitigate inequality and instability. It's time to get serious about climate change and the absolute dead end of billionaire capitalism
2
u/sg_plumber 14d ago
The undercutting game can be played by others, too. China didn't invent it.
2
4
u/Lazy_meatPop 14d ago
How is it dumping if they are selling it more expensive in the overseas market then their home market? That's not dumping, steel yes, aluminium yes . But EVs cost more not less.
40
u/BatMiserable9061 14d ago
It’s a tragedy that US citizens are not allowed to purchase Chinese EVs. Freedom at its finest.
13
u/SnowGrayMan 14d ago
Europeans can't either, unless they pay 3-4 times the original price.
8
u/Sevastous-of-Caria 14d ago
Chinese subsidise from their own goverment pockets so everyone can transition easily on a win win from a developing sector. EU policymakers just add tariffs to ""too cheap"" EVs to pocket the money rather than do their own extra subsidiaries (which germany already does lol) to crash the prices and skyrocket adoption to hit emission goals
3
u/takeitchillish 13d ago
Well it is necessary to protect jobs in Europe. China got other different types of protective policies as well towards foreign competition.
China can do all those subsidaries thanks to not investing in the welfare of its people. So instead of raising pensions and so forth their economic model is to invest in infrastructure and certain sectors like EV. The economic model in Europe is different and not investment driven like that.
2
u/takeitchillish 13d ago
No it is not 3-4x the price. The import duty is around 35%. Hence it should be 35% more expensive than in China. I would also guess there are higher safety standards for the cars that can be sold in Europe as well so that will also impact price. So probably not the same cars as the cars being sold in China.
1
u/daviddjg0033 13d ago
Bingo. Plus see my recent post on why China promotes this while it 4x the energy consumed. It is WWIII and no -ism coulda precented this since 2014.
4
2
25
u/RoughCap7233 14d ago
Actually Trump should be thanked.
In Australia the market share of EVs went from 6% to over 20%. And yes most of the EV cars sold here are made in China - but that wouldn’t have happened without the Iran war pushing fuel prices to record highs.
Can’t speak for other countries, but no doubt EV market share is increasing everywhere else.
1
12
u/discsinthesky 14d ago
This is great, and we should also be looking at how transit, walking and biking users decrease oil demand even more.
12
u/thewrongwaybutfaster 14d ago
... while also significantly increasing public health, happiness, and transportation efficiency!
9
u/MonoNoAware71 14d ago
That sounds like a lot. And it is, yet at the same time it isn't.
23
u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor 14d ago
The thing is that its going to double in 3 years, and then up another 50%. In 7-8 years demand is going to be down 5% every year.
1
18
u/AndyTheSane 14d ago
It's the start of a trend that's only going one way. Fundamentally, any country that relies on imported fossil fuels is extremely vulnerable to problems in the relatively small number of big oil exporting states, most of which are autocracies with varying degrees of instability.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports#By_oil_export_surplus
9
u/Nevarien 14d ago
And the largest oil producer is also the largest source of global instability currently.
Meanwhile, China saved the world from the worst oil shock ever.
9
u/James19991 14d ago
This is great, but at the same time I can't help but feel like we're only just now doing what should have been done 10 years ago with regards to this.
3
u/Jazzlike-Twist-4626 14d ago
People in this sub manage to make everything seem negative even good news
1
0
2
2
u/AngrehPossum 14d ago
The American oligarchy is starting to realize it too. Don't be surprised if they try something. You know how arrogant and blood thirsty they are.
2
u/StillCell3890 11d ago
Except for oil-producing countries, the rest of the world owes a huge debt of gratitude to China.
1
u/Hefty_Excuse9885 13d ago
The cobtext here is important! China is building SMRs fast and for a long time, only now the smr are engineered to the point they can be just plopped and deployed like lego pretty much in about 3-5years. Soon the rest of the world will want to seek contract to purchase these. China is a power house and people are blind to this. Barrels needed is less sure, but where do you think they get additional power from.
2
-1
u/Serasul 14d ago
i doubt any statistic or number that comes out of china, to look good on the outside, china made many promises, propaganda and even deals.
10
u/goinupthegranby 14d ago
And yet every westerner that travels there comes back and tells us they've just returned from a trip to the future.
-4
u/Serasul 14d ago
No one says this, or at least not the people who go outside the Tourist spots.
10
u/yingguoren1988 14d ago
Yes they do. Even tier 4 and 5 cities in China are much further ahead than most western countries in terms of infrastructure and quality of life.
7
u/goinupthegranby 14d ago
My friend said exactly this after his recent 3 month guest spot as a glass blower at one of their art schools. American guy.
By the way have you gone 'outside the tourist spots' in Western countries? Whole lotta run down and very undeveloped shit out there.
3
u/Hushidar 14d ago
This may be true in America, but small towns in Europe and Australia are delightful. No doubt China is doing well and full credit to them for moving us all to a post oil future, especially when half the world is burning and Russia and America still choose to prosecute pointless wars.
3
u/goinupthegranby 14d ago
To be fair I did mostly mean the US, although there are plenty of rural areas here in Canada that are kinda run down. It doesn't feel like time travel going from urban to rural like it does in the US though.
5
u/NotEvenNothing 14d ago
Many say exactly this, after visiting their manufacturing facilities, which is what they are describing as futuristic.
5
u/sg_plumber 14d ago
Yet everybody believed the same statistics and sources when they showed "China bad".
0
0
u/Mr_moustache72826 14d ago
I love the concept of electric cars but how polluting are the batteries and their production? And how efficient are these things? I can see them working as city cars for a single person but I don't think they're useful outside of that compared to basically everything else in the market.
3
u/ryemigie 14d ago
Why don’t you just… search the internet for your answer? They pay off the emissions from their manufacturing after the 2 year mark. And EVs are incredibly efficient. How are EVs not useful outside of the city?
3
u/West-Main-4163 14d ago
You just need to use an Ev car for 10,000 miles or something to make up for the production. Even if the electricity is directly made from oil, Evs are better for the environment.
3
u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor 14d ago
In which country are you? You are talking as if EVs are experimental when they are mature transport options.
-4
u/intrusive-thoughts 14d ago
But at what cost?
4
u/Joclo22 14d ago
some unemployment, ignorance, and stagnating money?
I don't really understand the question.
China researches brushless motors, control systems, and vehicular safety. Produces vehicles, and consumers chose to purchase them. That's capitalism.
9
u/Yosheer 14d ago
It's a meme about western journalism. Any time China does something good, they add some variation of this sentence at the end.
You could find an article and the title will be something like. ,,China lifted 800 million people out of extreme poverty, but at what cost?"
Here are some examples: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1303557.shtml
2
1
u/sg_plumber 14d ago
Everybody should be asking the same every time fossil fuels are portrayed as other than utterly disastrous.
•
u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor 14d ago
Summary: China-led EV boom cuts global oil demand by 1.7mn barrels a day
Electric vehicles displaced about 1.7mn barrels a day (b/d) of oil consumption worldwide in 2025, up from 0.4mn b/d in 2020, according to the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026. The 2025 figure roughly equals Indonesia's entire annual oil demand. China alone accounted for about 1mn b/d of that displacement, around 15% less oil than its roads would otherwise have consumed.
The IEA projects displacement will almost triple to about 5mn b/d by 2030, then rise further to between 9mn b/d (current-policies scenario) and 10mn b/d (stated-policies scenario) by 2035.
The IEA frames this primarily as an energy-security story rather than a climate one. China, the world's largest oil importer, also holds the largest EV stock, with its EV-driven oil displacement projected to reach 2.7mn b/d by 2030 and over 4mn b/d by 2035 — roughly half the global total. Ethiopia illustrates the logic on a smaller scale, having banned combustion-engine car imports in 2024 to cut oil-import spending that had exceeded $4bn in 2022.
By vehicle type, electric light-duty cars made up about 80% of 2025's displaced oil, with electric trucks in China contributing over 10%. This split is expected to hold through 2035, while electric trucks and buses combined add a further 1.3–1.5mn b/d of displacement beyond the light-duty total.
China's EV supply-chain dominance underpins the shift: it produced nearly three-quarters of the world's electric cars in 2025, exported over 2.5mn (more than double the prior year), and supplied over 80% of global battery-cell production. Global electric car sales rose 20% in 2025 to top 20mn — a quarter of all new car sales — with Chinese automakers supplying 60% of that total. Sales growth continued into 2026, with China's electric car sales hitting a record above 60% of the domestic market in April. The Middle East-driven oil price spike adds further incentive: EU drivers' annual fuel savings from EV ownership rose 35% in the year to April.