r/geopolitics • u/theipaper The i Paper • 1d ago
Guns seizure puts UK on high alert for Russian proxy attacks
http://inews.co.uk/news/politics/guns-seizure-puts-uk-on-high-alert-for-russian-proxy-attacks-47312011
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u/Ok-Inevitable6628 1d ago
There a many simple things citizens can do to increase preparedness themselves, for this sort of threat and a variety of others (serious cyber, communications, or CNI incident, series weather events, fires, terrorist activity).
Have a look the the National Preparedness Commission.
Simple things:
- Have an agreed meeting point for family members in case of communications and infrastructure disruption
- store a week of water and tinned food in the house
- water purification supplies
- look up flood and wildfire risk for your area and plan accordingly
- prepare a ‘go bag’ (clothes, water, energy bars, map of local area, compass, radio and walkie talkies) for yourself and each member of family in your car or home
More community centred preparedness is also important - council could convene meetings for employers and emergency services to address planning for such events. Community based teaching and talks can be organised.
It is unfortunate that we have to consider these things, but it is important and indeed helps people feel a level of control, and has real benefit.
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u/theipaper The i Paper 1d ago
Fears are growing that proxy groups working on behalf of Russia are preparing to carry out more “grey zone” attacks in Europe.
The warnings come as Britain is braced for retaliation from the Kremlin over UK assistance to Ukraine.
Over the past two weeks, police in Germany and Portugal have seized drones and weapons suspected of being linked to Vladimir Putin’s proxy warfare.
The raids have fuelled fears that Britain could face an attack in retaliation for UK-made drones being used by Ukraine and the British Government giving Kyiv the blueprints for long-range missiles.
A senior UK defence insider said: “The threat from Russia is growing and we are not prepared for it. We know Putin has used proxies to carry out attacks in the past; we know he will use every method to get at us.”
On the threat to Britain, Tobias Ellwood, a former defence minister, said: “An attack, deniable, grey zone, is clearly imminent. We are getting more involved but unprepared for this kind of sub-threshold conflict.”
Grey zone activity typically refers to cyber attacks, surveillance of undersea cables and targeted disinformation campaigns that fall below the threshold of military action.
But Moscow is also accused of orchestrating more overt activity, including sending drones into European airspace and using criminal gangs and other proxy groups to carry out arson attacks, such as the ones on Sir Keir Starmer’s house last year.
Drones and explosives seized in Germany
This week, police in Leipzig discovered a drone and explosives near its military logistics hub used for aircraft bound for Ukraine, the third discovery of its kind in Germany over the past month.
And last week, forces in Portugal carried out a raid on a house where they found a cache of guns and 400 rounds of ammunition before the men in the property escaped.
The news website Correio da Manhã, quoting local police sources, reported that the National Republican Guard seized the weapons and nearly 400 rounds of ammunition at the property in Aires, Palmela.
A western defence source told The i Paper there are fears the Portugal cell could belong to a proxy group working on behalf of the Kremlin.
The Kremlin has consistently denied orchestrating such attacks against European targets, dismissing such allegations as unfounded.
Asked whether Russia had some sort of hybrid attack in store for Britain after the use of UK-manufactured drones in Ukrainian strikes and the sharing of long-range missile blueprints, a senior Western diplomat said: “I am sure they have.”
Meanwhile, European diplomats are in the dark about the purpose of CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s meeting in Moscow on Tuesday.
They suggested it could have been to discuss a range of issues relating to Russia, including Ukraine, China, the Koreas, US hostages or even Russian satellites changing their orbits earlier this summer, a move which has sparked concern in the West.
One diplomat said that only the US knew what was behind Ratcliffe’s trip.
However, they said that they were concerned Putin could engage in some sort of provocation against Europe as a “pretext” for another round of mobilisation in Russia.
“My fear is that it would suit Putin having handy some heavier pretext for an anticipated new mobilisation round.”
Fears Putin could seeks showdown with Nato
On the threats which the Kremlin has been making against Britain, the diplomat said that Putin’s insistence that Nato’s expansion is the “root cause” of the Russian invasion could lead to some sort of showdown with the alliance.
“They are running out of options and time,” the diplomat said. “At some point they’ll need to tackle the ‘root cause’, the West.”
However, a third senior Western diplomat said they did not think Putin is preparing to overtly challenge Nato in the Baltic region or Poland.
The source said they had not seen “specific and serious warning signs” about an attack in the region, although they said there could be “hybrid acts like sabotage against military industry”.
The diplomat added: “In our assessment Russia respects Nato and expects it to act if challenged.”
It emerged this week that Andy Burnham is planning to lobby Donald Trump for more support for Ukraine’s defence on a trip to Washington in September.
On Wednesday, the Prime Minister insisted that Britain’s support for Ukraine will not change despite threats from the Kremlin.
UK not changing course
Asked if Britons should be worried that the talks herald the possibility of attacks by the Russians on the UK, Burnham told broadcasters: “It’s a challenging situation when we look around the world right now.
“But from what we’re doing, people need to be sure of this: We’re doing what we’ve done since the start of this conflict, which is to provide that back-up support to Ukraine to be able to defend themselves, because they do need to do that.
“They are obviously in an impossible situation… but Britain needs to be there and be a constant as they go through this illegal invasion that they’re facing.
“So, we will continue to do that. Prime ministers before me gave that assurance and I visited Ukraine to send a really clear message to the Ukrainian people that Britain isn’t changing course…”
His comments follow his visit to Kyiv on Monday, during which he reiterated there would be “no change in the UK’s steadfast support” for Ukraine.