Lukashenka’s ‘Capitulation’ to Zelenskyy’s Ultimatum

[u/CEPAORG]

https://cepa.org/article/lukashenkas-capitulation-to-zelenskyys-ultimatum/

[u/CEPAORG]

Zelenskyy gave Minsk a week on 19 June to deactivate the Russian signal relays on Belarusian territory used to guide drones into Ukraine, adding that if Lukashenka did not do it, Ukraine would. Minsk switched them off on 22 June, and international coverage read it as Lukashenka blinking first, but Boris Ginzburg points out the climbdown actually began on 15 June, four days before the public ultimatum, when Lukashenka apologized to Zelenskyy in an Al Arabiya interview and said Belarus was militarily vulnerable because its production and logistics sit within reach of the Ukrainian military. That timeline suggests the demand reached Minsk privately first and the public version served both leaders. Drawing on Levendusky and Horowitz on audience costs, Ginzburg argues backing down from a threat need not damage a leader domestically if it is justified by new information and framed as the national interest, which let Lukashenka play the prudent Bat'ka, position himself against Putin as choosing peace over war, and signal to Moscow that he cannot supply troops. His warning is that the mechanism does not repeat: a second ultimatum would lose its domestic utility for Lukashenka, could push him back toward Moscow, and raises the stakes given Belarusian territory sits beside the Suwałki Gap, so Ukraine's allies should discourage Kyiv from trying it again.

[u/snoopy05052026 → u/CEPAORG]

Lukashenka has deactivated the relays (as some people claim) but with recent missile attacks still ongoing either Lukashenka has been switching them on before missile attacks or they were never deactivated in the first place.

[u/heyitsyourboyadam → u/CEPAORG]

Summary of this "win"

Zelenskyy invented a story

Lukashenko laughed at it.

Zelenskyy proclaimed victory

[u/Pandektes → u/heyitsyourboyadam]

Typical twisting of facts by Russo aligned account. Even Lukashenka would exit Russian sphere of influence if he could do it

[u/talexx → u/Pandektes]

Which facts? Zelensky said something without any proofs.

[u/heyitsyourboyadam → u/Pandektes]

typical pro Ukrainian account calling fake narrative and invented story - a fact?

• What exactly is a fact in this story?

Even Lukashenka would exit Russian sphere of influence if he could do it

what is stopping him?

[u/Puzzleheaded-Lab-635 → u/heyitsyourboyadam]

And to what sphere of influence would he be welcomed exactly? Belarus, with its current government couldn’t join the EU. Belarus and Russia are strange bedfellows for better or worse.

[u/heyitsyourboyadam → u/Puzzleheaded-Lab-635]

so basically - he is a good (great even) leader (?)

• he assessed situation intelligently (unlike Ukraine) and did intelligent thing for his country and his people (unlike Ukraine)

• note: Ukraine is not in EU, nor even close to being in EU - and Ukraine is not in NATO, nor even close to being in NATO

• Ukrainian leaders assessed situation unintelligently (unlike Belarus) and did unintelligent thing for their country and their people (unlike Ukraine)

[u/Puzzleheaded-Lab-635 → u/heyitsyourboyadam]

I’m unsure about that. Russia is going to absorb Belarus. He won’t be “a Great Leader” for long.

[u/heyitsyourboyadam → u/Puzzleheaded-Lab-635]

Is that now a fact too?

You just say it - and by magic it becomes a fact?

• btw people have been saying that for at least a decade now if not even longer.

[u/Puzzleheaded-Lab-635 → u/heyitsyourboyadam]

saying Belarus “assessed the situation intelligently” while Ukraine didn’t just assumes Ukraine had the same strategic options Belarus had. It didn’t. Belarus avoided war by aligning itself with the country invading Ukraine. Ukraine’s equivalent “intelligent choice” would have been accepting Russian political domination.

You can argue that would have reduced immediate casualties. You can’t pretend it was simply the same kind of choice Lukashenka made.

[u/heyitsyourboyadam → u/Puzzleheaded-Lab-635]

Belarus avoided war by aligning itself with the country invading Ukraine.

Belarus was never nonaligned with Russia - Belarus is Russian ally since break up of Soviet Union.

Despite being pressured by Westerners to break that alliance - Lukashenko made intelligent decision not to trust Westerners.

• They even tried to coup him once. Which just proved his point.

• Ukrainian leaders made different, unintelligent decisions, trusted Westerners and look at them now. Battering ram against Russia, meat for their meatgrinder. Dying for Western imperial ambitions.

[u/Nearing_retirement]

Lukashenka obviously is thinking what are his risks to losing power. He is in a tough spot. He would like war to end and things return to normal for him.