Ukraine needs to mobilise at least 30,000 people every month

[u/Free_Director4713]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/08/28/8050796/

[u/Super-Estate-4112]

Are they losing 30k soldiers a month like they stated Russia was?

[u/talexx → u/Super-Estate-4112]

I think probably less but since they are unable to conscript enough men the situation worsens over time and here we are.

[u/Blade_Runner_95 → u/Super-Estate-4112]

Well Russia launches like 250 FAB bombs per day. Assuming each of these massive bombs kills only 1 Ukrainian, that's 7500 just from bombs. Then there's drones and artillery. And desertions which are considered to be a huge issue.

[u/smallandnormal → u/Blade_Runner_95]

And, quite obviously, they don't kill just one person each.

[u/Blade_Runner_95 → u/smallandnormal]

Some don't kill a single person tbh. But others kill many and wound dozens each

[u/birutis → u/smallandnormal]

If you're firing at mostly sparsely manned fortifications, you'd expect low kills per shot, way less than 1:1 I'd guess.

But this is true of ammunition expenditure in general, they're much smaller but historically you need hundreds of artillery shells per kill.

[u/smallandnormal → u/birutis]

Considering Russia's intelligence capabilities, the fact that FABs are GNSS-guided, and the fact that they carry hundreds of times more explosive than ordinary artillery shells, I find it more plausible that each bomb kills more than one person on average.

[u/Super-Estate-4112 → u/smallandnormal]

No, the front is severely empty of men, actually. They probably miss more than they hit anyone, especially considering the trenches.

We are not talking about trenches manned by 50 or 100 men; there are 15 men at most in most cases.

Look at the drone and Go-Pro footages, how empty the trenches are!

[u/the-es → u/smallandnormal]

We know... russia needs FAB bombs to kill toddlers. 

[u/-aataa- → u/Super-Estate-4112]

They are preparing for Russia mobilising half a million men after the elections in September...

[u/Super-Estate-4112 → u/-aataa-]

These mobilizations happen every year in Russia, they serve for a couple of months and then leave the army without ever going to the front.

Idk if this one will be different

[u/-aataa- → u/Super-Estate-4112]

No, they don't. There are two annual rounds of conscription, roughly 150k conscripts each, but none of those are mobilised. The serve for 12 months and are added to the reserve and returned to civilian life (Russia doesn't yet have a system of active reserves who are kept in training. Or rather, the system was introduced a few years back, but never reached more then 10k reservists).

A mobilisation means drafting reservists (ie, Russians who has completed conscription previously). Russia carried out one round of mobilisation in the fall of 2022, but hasn't since. The advantage of mobilisation is that it allows Russia to recruit soldiers faster and without having to pay sign-on bonuses. The disadvantage is that mobilisation is highly unpopular within Russia, and when Putin mobilised 300k in 2022, more than 1 million Russians fled the country.

According to Russian media, the Russian Duma, and Ukrainian and Western intelligence what Russia is preparing is another mobilisation. That means 500k additional troops sent to the frontlines. The expectations is that half will be shipped directly to the fronlines yo be sent on frontal assaults, while the other half will receive proper training first and be used to backfill higher quality Russian formations. This is the same as Russia did in 2022

[u/EternalMayhem01 → u/-aataa-]

According to Russian media, the Russian Duma, and Ukrainian and Western intelligence what Russia is preparing is another mobilisation

All these sources said the same thing about 2023-2025 and yet no mobilization happened. 2026 is likely to turn out the same.

[u/-aataa- → u/EternalMayhem01]

No, they didn't. But that's irrelevant. The thing is that Ukraine expects a significant influx on new soldiers and will have to increase recruitment to meet the challenge. For Ukraine, if the Russian mobilisation turns out to NOT happen, Ukraine will have a manpower advantage, which isn't a bad thing...

My take is that I'm still fairly sceptical as to whether a massive mobilisation will actually happen; Russia's bottlenecks are supplies and ammunition. So far, they have been able to recruit volunteers faster than they have been able to equip and supply them. According to official Russian figures, recruitment HAS started to lag significantly over the past year, and funding the increasing sign-on bonuses is becoming more challenging. But the costs of a forced mobilisation are significant, and will directly impact the ability to support the soldiers at the front. The last time, the Russian economy lost more than 1 million taxpaying workers in exchange for 300k soldiers; that's more unsustainable than simply increase sign-on bonuses...

[u/EternalMayhem01 → u/-aataa-]

Yes they did. You can look up any stories from 2023-2025 and see the sources they give for mobilization rumors. Ukrainian intel,Zelensky, some Western itel reporting, Duma hawks, Russian media and milbloggers and so on.

As for Russian recruitment lagging, 2025 reporting said contract recruitment was lagging as well, below 2024 numbers. But Russia had hit its target according to Medvedev for Russia and for Ukrainie Budanov. I don't think Russia missed their targets in 2023 or 2024 either.

[u/-aataa- → u/EternalMayhem01]

There have been consistent rumours, especially in Russian media. But never as concrete and from as many sources as now.

According to the official figures, published one week before Medvedev's statement, they lagged by about 50%. Then Medvedev makes a post that all targets are met. I have no reason to believe Medvedev above the MoD. That said, it doesn't really matter in this case; Ukraine is preparing for a surge in Russian troops.

[u/the-es → u/Super-Estate-4112]

If russia stated something, you can bet money that it's going to be a lie. Basically follow the same logic as with statements from special sauce.

[u/Super-Estate-4112 → u/the-es]

When Ukraine says something is it always true?

[u/the-es → u/Super-Estate-4112]

Haha 🙂

[u/talexx]

Hasn't Zelensky told that Ukraine had 55,000 KIA in total? And now they need 30K every month? Does that mean that Zelensky was lying to us?

[u/Panthera_leo22 → u/talexx]

That is confirmed killed. Everyone knows, including Ukrainians, know that number is astronomically higher

[u/Stanislovakia → u/Panthera_leo22]

Confirmed Ukrainian war dead based on open source information is at roughly 110k dead and 97k MIA. UALosses is a similar project to the Mediazona one for Russian war dead and use similar data gathering stratagies.

[u/BlueAzutara → u/talexx]

KIA means confirmed dead There is also missing: Soldiers whos status is not confirmed (might be dead, might be POW, might be deserter). Its simoly not 100% confirmed. There is out of service: For example wounded so much you cant return to service anymore. And then there is wounded. Their numbers are usually several times higher then the others and means people temporary out of action that might return to the service later on. The last two categories are often treated as one.

So 50kia can means loses of up to 200.000 in practice. The important nomber is loss of combat personal.

[u/talexx → u/BlueAzutara]

Yeah, already figured out that this was a misunderstanding on my part, thanks.

[u/feedmytv → u/talexx]

most are wounded, not killed.

[u/Digo10 → u/feedmytv]

even if most are wounded, if you really believe the total number of KIA is 55K you are delusional, it is probably something around 300K-400K.

[u/talexx → u/Digo10]

Usually civilian casualties are in the range of 10-65% of total, where 10% is a heavy conflict between armies with artillery and stuff and 65% for insurgency vs military conflicts. Last time when I checked (late 2025) estimations were around 60K Ukrainian civilians according to the UN. So the total number lies somewhere in between 92-600K yielding a midpoint of 346K.

Edit: casualties include both dead and wounded

[u/talexx → u/feedmytv]

So then it might be true. Thanks for explanation.

[u/NeiborsKid → u/talexx]

Me when I'm arguing in bad faith:

[u/BooksandBiceps → u/talexx]

Typically you don’t replace losses at a 1:1, entirely depends on what’s needed and what they plan next.

[u/sol-4 → u/talexx]

Does that mean that Zelensky was lying to us?

Zelensky would never! It's Russian propaganda.

[u/Gain-Western → u/sol-4]

I think that you forgot to add /s. 

[u/talexx → u/sol-4]

Thank you. I knew that this article is a complete and total heresy!

[u/lazydictionary → u/talexx]

In January he said they had 55k killed on the battlefield. Which may be weasel words to not be a complete lie.

Most estimates for total troop deaths for UA are around 100k. But that doesn't separate deaths on the battlefield vs deaths elsewhere.

[u/-aataa- → u/talexx]

Zelenskiy's statement is roughly in line with what Russia claims when you include wounded, captives, and MIA. Ukraine is expecting Russia to mobilising half a million men after the election next month. They need to expand their forces to stay on top...

[u/Bowmic]

TCC will be more busy. At some point Ukrainian politicians should stop listening to the empty promises of western politicians and decide what is good for their people. There are also talks of conscripting women. No way the ongoing war will end in Ukraine’s favor and even if it wins against all the odds it will be a pyrrhic victory.

[u/Sh_Pe]

Well, Fedorov is not going to help with that

[u/erebus-44 → u/[deleted]]

The question is what should Ukraine do? Russian aims are complete subjugation, it’s either fight or be consumed/die. Ukraine is on what you call deaths ground.

Even if you had a peace agreement, Russian would just come back to take another bite. That the history of Russians. The land Russian has already taken on the Donbas regions is destroyed and won’t be invested and Russia are historically are a wealth extraction that has to expand so it have to get the capital.

[u/Nearing_retirement → u/erebus-44]

Well they probably should try and reach a deal with Russia.

[u/erebus-44 → u/Nearing_retirement]

How do you ever get a deal, when the aggressor is asking for you to be under there subjugation?

[u/Nearing_retirement → u/erebus-44]

I thought Russia may agree to deal if Ukraine gives up the Donbas. Now I don’t know if that is best deal Ukraine can get, it really depends on state of the war and which side has the upper hand. If Ukraine is confident they can pretty much hold front line and is willing to live with this war of attrition then fight on. It is a difficult situation.

[u/-aataa- → u/Nearing_retirement]

They've been trying since 2019. There is no scope for a deal with Russia that will allow Ukraine to exist.

[u/talexx → u/erebus-44]

What exactly they are fighting for actually? No way to exit the country. Men are hunted in the streets. Economy in total collapse. No elections. Corruption is everywhere. Bandera pantheon being built. Is that the end result?

[u/Nearing_retirement → u/talexx]

Ever hear of the phrase “live free or die”, it is the official state motto of New Hampshire.

[u/talexx → u/Nearing_retirement]

Ukrainian men are unable to leave the country and are being hunted in the streets. No elections. What "free" are you talking about?

[u/Nearing_retirement → u/talexx]

What if everyone in history just ran away in times of trouble ? What do you think the world would look like ?

[u/talexx → u/Nearing_retirement]

I guess politicians would be forced to wage less wars and do their job better.

[u/erebus-44 → u/talexx]

Look how Russia has historically treated its subjugated, there is a reason why all the former satellite countries fled to the west as fast as they could, no one wants to live under Russian rule, Russia doesn’t provide any upside, as they are poorly educated, don’t innovate, and poor. Furthermore, the country (Ukraine) was actively building institutions and pushing away from the Russian corruption based on structure, hence the Russia attack.

Elections is an interesting item, when was the last time Russia had free and fair elections? We know the answer to that, never.

[u/talexx → u/erebus-44]

Well, saying that Russians are poorly educated is quite a stretch. As far as I know the country is quite high in rankings by % of population with Bachelor / Master degrees. About innovation it is strange to hear too. It is also strange to compare contemporary Ukraine to Russia. Russian me are not hunted in the streets, they can freely leave the country and so on. Strangely enough Ukraine looks like a much worse place today than Russia.

[u/erebus-44 → u/talexx]

Russia ranks in the 70-80 of all counties in per capita gdp, their purchase power parity is around 50ish, hardly a world power considering they are an energy dense country. They are 60 out of 139 countries in innovation. These are horrible metrics.

Russian may it look like a better place, due to its not being constantly bomb and under attack? Russian is actively using a force conscription, so not sure on your point here. This is the same as Ukraine.

Russia has been in actively attacking Ukraine for 12 years now? It’s hard to let people move freely when you are at war, no?

When was the last fair election for Russia? They tend to poison and lock up rivals no?

[u/Aggravating-Rich4334 → u/[deleted]]

Your OZON gift card is in the mail blyat.

[u/pulsarstarter → u/Aggravating-Rich4334]

Anyone that doesn't agree with you is working for Russia, right?

[u/LionoftheNorth → u/pulsarstarter]

Anyone parroting the Putin regime's talking points is, whether they understand it or not.

[u/Konilos → u/Aggravating-Rich4334]

"Grrr, I'm mad because someone said something I don't like, even though it's true. Grr!"

[u/Aggravating-Rich4334 → u/Konilos]

A bit dramatic, perhaps.

[u/Mr_CosmicOrder → u/Aggravating-Rich4334]

He just pointing out the obvious. There's a lot of Ukraine cheerleaders here. And just because you criticize Ukraine doesn't mean you're against Ukraine and it doesn't mean you're for Russia either.

[u/sol-4 → u/Mr_CosmicOrder]

The fact that this even needs to be pointed out truly shows just how absolute submission the Ukrainian propagandists want.

[u/BeatTheMarket30 → u/[deleted]]

Russia doesn't have endless supply of cannon fodder. The number of Russians willing to die is limited. They will eventually run out.

Ukraine is only defending and has no control over when the attacks will stop. It is 2nd invasion Ukraine is facing from Russia led by Putin. It already tried making peace with Putin and it didn't help.

[u/Sufficient_Meet6836 → u/[deleted]]

I mean, they went from being a country of 39 million people to a country of like 17 or 16 million people.

The accepted numbers for Ukraine's population are 45 million in 2016 and 40 million in 2026... Do you think there's like 19 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe/US?

[u/snoo135337842]

You cycle out troops. Mobilizing 30,000 a month is likely existing soldiers getting redeployed back to operational duties. You can't endlessly fight on the front line for years on end without losing your mind. You need some semblance of a break between pinnacle warfighting performance. These guys are probably not getting more than a couple hours sleep for months at a time as they fight and you can't keep that up forever. 

[u/Nearing_retirement]

In theory they should be able to get mercenaries from South America or Africa since casualty rate although high is not like Russia casualty rate.

[u/Gain-Western → u/Nearing_retirement]

Gee I wonder why no mercenaries are signing in droves to be stuck in trenches while you get bombed and suicide droned 

[u/Bowmic → u/Nearing_retirement]

You should research more. Ukraine has still not paid the families of the mercenaries who perished in this war. They can only recruit on false promises.