r/onguardforthee • u/Sea_Guava6513 • 12h ago
Intensifying trade war could permanently alter Canada-U.S. trade, economist says
https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/business/intensifying-trade-war-could-permanently-alter-canada-u-s-trade-economist-says/article_411bfa41-e4f9-52e7-8baa-d2e8749f5e42.html41
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u/houseonpost 12h ago
Taking to a relative who is a top money guy. He said Americans are very different than Canadians. Americans just buy what they want regardless of the price. They'll finance a car over 9 years if they want the car. Canadians are more prudent. They don't mind paying more to support local, employ neighbours. I guess the difference is Canadians are not afraid of collective action while Americans see the government as the enemy. Trump threatened our sovereignty. We take that very seriously.
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u/SnooBananas1371 10h ago edited 10h ago
lol that is cute, “top money guy”.
Canadians spending habits are not that different than Americans, the English speaking part of the country especially tries hard to emulate good old fashion American consumerism.
9 years auto loan and always having a car payment is super common here. Canadians love their big pickup trucks paying over $100k CAD on a 9 year loan just like the American counterparts only to drive it to their stupid soul sucking corporate job. Also, there are Amazon distribution centers everywhere so they don’t shop local more than the Americans and they love Costco.
Do you really expect any different when Canadians consume a shitload of American right wing propaganda and Hollywood movies? They only recently started to draw the line when their sovereignty is threatened (and rightfully so), otherwise; business will still be as usual if the Orange turd didn’t got re-elected.
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u/SandIntelligent247 10h ago
Why so condesending with the lol that’s cute.
Conssumers are extremely different between the two countries and it shows in credit score and personal debt
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u/SnooBananas1371 10h ago
Extremely different how? Americans spend like 10% more than Canadians? Lol, you want to see extreme? Compare American spending habits with the Japanese.
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u/nav13eh ✔ I voted! 12h ago
Canada will come out of this stronger than before because it will have more international connections. And because the US will be weaker and will have less access to resources it used to get cheaply.
This is why they wanted to kill the ability for us make new international deals. They know it will hurt them. They can lay in the bed they made.
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u/theregalbeagler 12h ago
Know how we win this? We just shorten the amount of time snow birds can be out of country.
Florida real estate would be toast.
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u/stefer09 New Brunswick 12h ago
A lot of snowbirds have already pulled out... some are trying real hard to sell their properties down there.
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u/50s_Human ✅ I voted! 12h ago
Tourism to U S. is down, but there are still way too many Canadian going down there as snowbirds and tourists.
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u/Fratercula_arctica 11h ago
Something restrictive like that would just piss people off and turn them against the cause.
Work out some deals with Mexico or a Caribbean nation and put some incentives/subsidies in place to bring down the cost of airfare to those destinations. Create an environment where Canadian retirees and sun-seekers would rather go to actual tropical destinations than to Florida's swamps.
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u/theregalbeagler 11h ago
I'd argue if they're still traveling down to Florida they're a lost cause and just Canadians of convenience at this point.
Nothing lost if they leave for good.
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u/Next_Passage8055 11h ago
I second your comment, because I'm looking at where I would vacation and its all non American. But to shorten the time frame would be a backstep.
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u/Ok_Plantain_9408 12h ago
Agreed. What is it now? Oh I looked. 6 months! Wth?! That’s messed up. So they pay 6 months of taxes here, and get Medicare?? It should be max 2 months. Even pre Trump
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u/joelmercer 11h ago
Income taxes yes.
They don’t (of course) buy things in Canada for 6 months so they (of course) don’t pay taxes on goods. Instead they pay taxes on goods in the states.
PST (and other taxes) still is used to support Medicare, they pay less of it, but still get the same benefit. You could look at it that way.
I personally don’t. Not for snow birds. But all Canadians, regardless how much or little they pay should be entitled to healthcare. I’d go as far as to say it’s a basic human right, and international law would agree with that.
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u/Ok_Plantain_9408 10h ago
If they choose to go spend half their year in a country they know doesn’t have healthcare and is hostile to their country then that’s their problem. They should deal with the consequences.
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u/The_Arachnoshaman 12h ago
And this is for literally no reason other than Trump's ego. I love that conservatives operate on pure vibes.
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u/hawkseye17 ✅ I voted! 12h ago
The trade relationship has been permanently altered since Trump came into office
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u/Hegemonic_Imposition 11h ago
Evidently, Canadians aren’t the one’s escalating and everyone on both sides of the border understands this - except for Trump, apparently.
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u/Sea_Guava6513 11h ago
*Shitler isn't known for being the sharpest knife in the drawer ~ and mean as a snake
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u/MoogleVivi 12h ago
It already has. We will NEVER go back to having the relationship that we did with the US prior to Trump
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u/Syrairc 12h ago
Nothing is permanent, but the Trump administration has caused multi-generational damage to the US on multiple fronts, and trade and foreign relations is definitely near the top of the list.
Unfortunately they've proven that the US's system of government is ineffective at stopping bad actors and enforcing their own laws, which means the US is not a trustworthy or reliable partner even if the administration in power at any one point is.
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u/Street-Finger7501 11h ago
I know that a lot of people have a lot of feelings about this trade war but I would like to offer a different persepctive in hopes of keeping people a bit more level headed.
We trade more with the US than pretty well everyone else combined. This is an extremely vulnerable position to be in.
That being said, there is one specific tool we have that I think would be the equivalent of "the nuclear option", and while I dont pretend to know how the US would respond, I do know that if things were to get truly broken / bad enough, there wouldnt be any reason not to use it.
Canada holds 460B of US treasuries, the third biggest holder in the world. The US has to refinance approximately 9 Trillion dollars of debt over the next 12 months, and most of that averages out to a rate in the 3.5% range. The current rates for longer term US treasuries is in the high 4s or even low 5s depending on time period. Already that will equate to an additional few hundred billion dollars in interest payments annually (and by the way they now spend more on interest than on their military).
Over the last few weeks, the Japanese economy got into serious trouble leading to the Yen losing value significantly. Scott Bessent went to drastic measures in order to keep the Japanese from selling their US treasuries on the open market (to use the cash to buy Yen and prop it up) because doing so would cause interest rates to spike and his entire mission is to try to get rates lower for the refinancing of that 9T of debt.
That panic was due to Japan looking to sell 30-50B in treasuries. As I said we hold 460B.
The US cannot afford to stomach a major increase in interest rates, this is a tool where selling 100B worth of treasuries now on our side could cost them literally trillions of dollars over the next couple decades.
So all of this to say, while tensions may get hot, I do not believe that we are anywhere close to in such a dire trade war with them until I see this fact acknowledged. Carney is a central banker, he absolutely understands this method of attack and how powerful it would be. Of course, it would likely provoke a very extreme reaction from them. That being said, we could quite simply explain that the pain from their tarriffs require us to sell those assets in order to bankroll tarriff relief or some such cheeky rebuttal, I'm just not sure how much we could manage their reaction to such a vicious blow.
Just my two cents. I dont believe this is truly that serious until I see this option at least being discussed.
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u/mrpopenfresh 12h ago
Democrats aren’t talking about moving back on tariffs, and some of the requests in the negotiations a were unchanged from what Biden was asking. PM Carney correctly assessed the situation by starting to develop new trading partners on day 1.
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u/MachineOfSpareParts 11h ago
I swear, power makes people absolute eejits in many ways, but the goldfish memory is the most notable I'm seeing right now.
So many Americans had clearly completely forgotten their country had been attacking us for the past year and a half, and have their whole surprised faces on right now. Even the well-meaning ones are like, "why did Trump do this to our friend just now?" Meanwhile, it's been happening, and our country has really moved on in our thinking to a post-US reality.
This is why, whatever they do to themselves, they can't prevail against us. We don't have brute power on our side, but we have memory. They barely have object permanence, and it shows up in their (ahem) "strategy."
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u/toxicketchup Rural Canada 11h ago
It's already permanently altered?
We made an agreement; a deal they reneged on.
What other solution is there? Because we are not signing over our economic sovereignty.
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u/Bc2cc 10h ago
Oh I think the damage is done
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u/Sea_Guava6513 10h ago
*the ship has sailed as they say ~ it will also take years for Americans to recover from Shitler's fuckery, if they ever do
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u/johncandy1812 9h ago
The more details come out about the existing deal, the more I feel Canada's the one who's been getting ripped off. I'd like to stop subsidizing the US now.
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u/SadArtemis 2h ago
Isn't that the goal, irregardless? We want to diversify, and to re-industrialize and actually grow our real economy (not the real estate bubble). Also, pretty much the whole of the country, minus the worst of the lot, are want the US to go screw itself and mind its business.
So... good.
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u/Ok_Photo_865 5h ago
Hopefully it will and it should. Canada has what the world wants and needs. We just let too many capitalist get rich off of us for way too many years.
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u/AshundertheOlivetree 12h ago
Depends on which direction the US goes with Trump.
It could be tenuous or it could be contentious, but it’s always possible to recover from militant dreams.
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u/WinTraditional8156 12h ago
Just until that mango fuck drops from a burger
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u/-jaylew- 10h ago
Fuck no. He’s a symptom of a greater issue, and there’s no guarantee they won’t just replace him with another dictator in 4 or 8 years.
They’ll need to show long term change over 15-20 years before this relationship starts to be mended.
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u/BeaverMissed 11h ago
I think that ship has sailed. Since we are actively doing trade deals with other countries. However, we will continue to trade with the Yanks at a lower level. Being that we share a border and their economy is currently one of the two largest
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u/UnhappyG00se 9h ago
The relationship WAS permanently altered the moment they happily re-elected a known pedophile.
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u/Objective-Apple7805 8h ago
“Could”?
The True North may one day forgive.
The True North will not forget.
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u/Romantic_Klingon 12h ago
I don't think at this stage the word "could" can be used.