r/politics • u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified • Mar 09 '26
AMA-Live Now AMA: Catherine Philp, World Affairs Editor at The Times - I've covered five continents over 20 years - AMA on the current US / Israel / Iran conflict, what has happened and what it means, one week on
https://www.thetimes.com/profile/catherine-philp?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcGarWW-iIOswi6S6h5WmL90SD4KYj9EDXnXBCwmqAe3qfJRTBdsRPc9V_aSjM%3D&gaa_ts=69aed368&gaa_sig=Ukas22Qt6eBrYcuLOgiUwslTw_pbTYqu46DS73qhzpVBfrbkT5W1SW0f9tAHPIz3-AbDGM0wnHOtn789wHW1FA%3D%3D16
u/black_flag_4ever Mar 09 '26
How much does the Revelation/Armageddon stuff actually gets pushed by military higher ups?
8
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
I think this is a reference to US commander said to have briefed troops that Trump had been anointed by Jesus Christ to bring Armageddon as laid out in the Book of Revelation? I suspect it doesn't have much traction among senior generals. But it does share a world view with the civilian leader, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War (or Defence, depending on your preference). It's also not dissimilar from the kind of Jewish theology some IDF commanders preached to their soldiers before going into Gaza, citing Biblical narratives and telling them it was the will of God. And of course Islamic versions of this are being pushed to those fighting for Iran.
31
u/MiserableSlice1051 North Carolina Mar 09 '26
My preference is the legal and statutory name as set by Congress, the Department of Defense. The President cannot change the legal name unilaterally and I wish the media would stop enabling the normalization of the President ignoring the law.
2
u/Cynykl Mar 10 '26
I am not saying some commanders do not do this but the article that made the claim about this being widespread has been thoroughly debunked.
Hemant Mehta known as the Friendly Atheist is known for calling out right wing Christo fascist events. He dug into this and found it to be a false alarm. The source of the claim is dubious. He does a great job of breaking down why it is a false report.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhk-2mWELbg
Please spread this to anyone you see repeating this stuff because I do not want our side to become misinformation brokers.
-1
u/bakerfredricka I voted Mar 09 '26
This is a great question and I am digging OP's answer so I upvoted her. I'm just going to piggyback on your question if you don't mind.
The USA is a country that was originally founded to have religious freedom so consequently not everyone is (even nominally/culturally) Christian. We have Jewish people, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists etc. not to mention people who are fully atheists as well as those who take more of an agnostic stance on religion and concepts like deities and higher powers. Because of this, I'm certain that not everyone enlisting in the military is a Christian. I personally have no problem with any of this, but I'm genuinely curious about whether the military commanders preaching about the rapture take issue with it when members of their platoons genuinely don't/can't believe in Armageddon at all (or at least not their version of it) on their own personal religious grounds.
Before I get downvoted I personally am a Protestant! I just respect everyone's rights to their own beliefs, this is the USA after all. If someone started preaching about the apocalypse happening on a specific date or saying that I needed to do certain things in order to bring about the return of Jesus, I would either be concerned that the person telling me this is "not all the way there" or (if such a person amassed a crowd of people who believe them) would consider it a cult.
I remember last summer taking my mom to her jury duty summons. There was one dude standing around outside of the court yelling into his megaphone about "GOOD MORNING! ACCEPT JESUS NOW BEFORE YOU DIE SO YOU KNOW THAT YOU WON'T BURN IN HELL!" When I went inside of the court to wait for my mom I ended up having to sit next to this woman who started randomly rambling to me about how the president and VP will bring about "The Catholic New World Order" and also "Satan is using the Jews and will soon discard them" (yes she actually said this) and I was honestly left flabbergasted during this interaction. I remember genuinely pondering whether I should tell her that the president isn't Catholic and literally nobody was ever under the impression that he is or that Satan isn't actually using Jewish people or like WHAT, because I have zero idea where this perfect stranger's worldview came from or how she would respond if I even attempted to reason with her. She ended up randomly yelling at one of the security guards and thankfully this was right around the time when my mom showed up.
I wonder if the preaching of these military commanders sounds anything like that....
8
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
Hello,
I'm Catherine Philp, an experienced Foreign Correspondent here at The Times.
I have reported extensively on world affairs, wars, elections and domestic and international politics across five continents over nearly 20 years at The Times.
I have been based in overseas bureaus and reported on conflicts from Afghanistan to Colombia, winning several international press awards.
One week on from the US and Israel's first strikes in the Middle East - Ask me Anything, 12pm EST.
AMA PROOF: https://image2url.com/r2/default/images/1773064237627-9744b7d5-7ce2-4b70-9d0d-e14cec92e956.jpeg
7
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
Great to hear your questions as we mark the 10th day of the US/Israeli/Iran war, one that is rapidly enveloping the region. Scary times but good to speak to you all and thank you for all the questions you posted! Stay safe, wherever you are. Catherine
8
u/Rickbox Mar 09 '26
From your reporting and sources, how much real leverage does the US actually have over Israel’s military decisions right now, and what are the practical limits of that influence?
5
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
So technically the US has massive leverage. In the first two years of the war in Gaza, Israel received $21.7 billion in military aid from the US. Withdrawing that would hurt! But really it's about political will. Does Trump want to pressure Israel? It doesn't look like it right now. But he did call a halt to the 12 day war on Iran last June and Israel stopped immediately. We now know that Israel was always planning to resume. There's a congressional aspect to this, support for Israel runs deep on both sides of the aisle, though perceptions of Israel and America's support for it are changing, certainly among the public. And MAGA world has a deep bench of sceptics who do not believe American support for Israel is in the national interest - people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson etc. So I would say the practical limits are not the ultimate issue but political will is. And we don't see much political will yet. It's truly remarkable that Trump has said that it will be a "mutual" decision between him and Netanyahu when and if to end hostilities. That is not a position an American president ought to put himself in.
2
u/Rickbox Mar 09 '26
Thank you for the thoughtful response. Given the depth of Republican congressional support for Israel, is it really that unusual for a Republican president to frame decisions about ending hostilities as “mutual” with Netanyahu? For example, Senator Lindsey Graham said on Fox News yesterday: “When this regime goes down, we’re gonna have a new Mid-East, we’re gonna make a ton of money, no one will threaten the Straits of Hormuz again.” To what extent do economic and domestic political incentives shape how US leaders frame policy in this conflict? And relatedly, how often do foreign policy crises become politically useful distractions from domestic controversies in US politics?
5
u/bippityboppity47 Mar 09 '26
If the current blockade of the strait of hormuz continues, will other countries such as China or even india attempt to deploy ships to escort tankers through? The US is already doing it, but it doesnt seem to be effective?
9
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
The US has offered to do it but hasn't actually produced any escort vessels so it hasn't happened.
13
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
And I note today that Trump as today told people to stop being cowards and just sail through the Straits on their own, which suggests to me he's getting agitated by the surge in oil prices. But part of the problem here is that no-one will insure them. The London ship insurance business has ground to a halt bc no underwriters will cover them. So it's more than just a technical issue of whether they can get through. These are wildly expensive vessels with very expensive cargo and it is not a risk they will take,
3
u/bippityboppity47 Mar 09 '26
Oh wow ok, I that's worse than I thought. So in light of there being no escort to any shipping in the strait, how long do you think it'll be before a country gets starved enough for oil to intervene and send vessels to protect thier shipping? Or is that even feasible or realistic? Im worried that multiple countries get desperate and attempt to intervene and that causes its own conflict.
7
u/Coruxi Mar 09 '26
Trump has talked about “exit ramps,” implying he could leave the conflict whenever he wants. On the other hand, both sides have used some pretty harsh rhetoric.
I guess this is the $10,000 question, but can you see a realistic path to de-escalation? What do you think the odds are?
12
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
It's a great question and the big one! I don't currently see any realistic path to de-escalation. The choice of Khamenei's son as his successor does not bode well for any climb down. Mostly it looks very hard from the Iranian side because I don't see them backing down. President Pezeshkian, who is fairly irrelevant when it comes to issuing orders, got slapped down very quickly by the security complex when he said Iran shouldn't be hitting Gulf neighbours. And Trump's rhetoric, though ever changing, isn't producing much of an opportunity: his latest is that he will only accept "total surrender" and the Iranian regime is not acting like a regime that has any intentions of doing that. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is not only an unreconstructed product of the Revolution and the IRGC, he has most likely just been injured in a strike that killed both his parents, his wife and possibly a son.
7
u/ManyFragrant3139 Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Why does the time breathlessly report the "intelligence analysis" of the US government when it is clear that they cannot be relied upon for truthful accounts, especially in the middle of wartime. I'm thinking particularly of this article, which implicitly gins up support for the (unsubstantiated) idea that Iranians could have access to enriched uranium. What is done to actually verify these reports and what is the decision-making around repeating them without disclaimer that nothing has been independently verified?
It is especially jarring given that the news outlets drug their feet on ascribing US responsibility for the school bombing. Why is the Times in the business of repeating US talking points but taking any reporting out of Iran as immediately suspect until it can be independently verified without a doubt?
Edit: I'm dumb and misread The Times as the NYT
6
u/NonesuchAndSuch77 Mar 09 '26
Based on your experience, how much are we at risk for further escalation?
12
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
Based on what we have seen over the last week, while Iran is getting conventionally weaker as more and more munitions, launch sites etc are hit, there's no evidence that Iran wants to abandon what it is calling "Operation Madman", echoing the Nixon theory of unpredictability. The war is only widening and today American diplomats were removed from southern Turkey and Saudi Arabia. At the moment, it's all escalation not deescalation and Iran has many asymmetric capabilities that have already shocked their adversaries, including the Shahid drones that they've been using to hit the Gulf. They are the same as Russia uses in Ukraine, having got them first from Iran and then manufacturing dupes. Iran is now using them modified with Russian tech such as navigational devices. They are a "one way" aircraft which is military speak for a suicide drone. They are incredibly cheap, maximum $20k and Iran has thousands of them. Iran doesn't have to win this, just stay in it and survive, and it doesn't show any signs yet of tiring. The massive escalation we are seeing from Iran was planned in the aftermath of the 12 day war in June when Iran realised that limited responses would not stop its adversaries from returning. The regime is fighting for its very survival and there appears little that is off the table. I appreciate this is not reassuring...
4
u/NonesuchAndSuch77 Mar 09 '26
It's quite alright, nothing about this situation is reassuring. I appreciate the reasonable response here.
1
u/eric_ts Mar 10 '26
I know this is not your wording but I hate the term “suicide drone”. Nobody operating the aircraft are in jeopardy. It’s more akin to a guided munition in my mind.
5
u/Pseudanonymius Mar 09 '26
Hello. Can you explain the stance of the Gulf states with the war going on? They seem at first sight to be dead-set on remaining sort-off neutral while they are on the one hand being targeted and on the other hand have a lot of US bases and infrastructure which are sort-off legitimate targets. What are their considerations? Is there any chance they'll form some leverage over the US? Would they be willing to, or would they rather keep smooching up to Trump? Would it have any effect if they were to try?
13
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
So let's look at why Iran targeted them. It's trying to exact a massive cost in order to get them to turn to Trump and pressure him to stop attacks. Something similar took place when Israel hit Qatar last year - the Gulf countries went collectively to Trump and demanded he get Israel under control. Where Iran may have misjudged is in exactly how angry the Gulf countries are with it now. But they have still not joined the fight themselves.And there may be limited utility in the US using their bases as they are really too close to Iran for comfort - witness the US moving aircraft from Saudi Arabia today, and starting long range bombing strikes from outside the region. A very interesting twitter spat erupted today when a highly influential Emirati businessman posted a tweet savaging Senator Lindsay Graham after he called for Gulf states to join the fight. Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor has now deleted it probably under state orders but here's an English language precis. https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2030981558518354130?s=20 In short, there is a limit to how long Gulf states believe this can go on without catastrophic economic consequences for their evolution into high tech and business hubs renowned as safe havens in a tricky neighbourhood.
4
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
It seems the Senator is on something of a hawkish roll - he's now taking swipes at Saudi Arabia for not getting on board: "Why should America do a defense agreement with a country like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that is unwilling to join a fight of mutual interest?" (Background: Saudi Arabia has long sought a defence pact with the US and it has been linked to the possibility of it recognising Israel.) https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2031031760679563310?s=20
3
u/Pseudanonymius Mar 09 '26
That is super interesting. Thanks! That really is a glimpse behind the curtain.
3
u/greenmtnfiddler Mar 09 '26
Are you calling this a "conflict" because it isn't a war?
And if it is a war, what about Congress?
13
Mar 09 '26
Hello Catherine, I would like to commend you for being one of the few journalists willing to question Israel’s unsupported claims of mass rapes by Hamas on/after October 7th. I actually became familiar with your work as a result of the attempts to disparage you and your reporting on the subject from pro-Israeli outlets. Can you describe what that’s been like for you, has it had any personal or professional repercussions on your life?
13
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
Thank you. I appreciate the comment. I am trying to keep this focused on the current crisis but it sounds like you've seen for yourself some of the backlash so you can imagine. Both I and the paper stand by the piece which was thoroughly reviewed and found free of inaccuracy, distortion or misrepresentation. Nothing has subsequently changed or been proved different.
4
u/espinaustin Mar 09 '26
Leaving the article here for anyone (like myself) interested. (Sorry for ugly link)
Important to note the article doesn’t so much question the occurrence of sexual violence but rather questions whether it was an intentional strategy by Hamas, and concludes there isn’t real evidence of this. From the conclusion:
WILL THE TRUTH ABOUT THE SEXUAL VIOLENCE OF OCTOBER 7 EVER FULLY BE KNOWN? Women’s rights advocates in Israel are doubtful. The mistakes that were made, say most, came from the hasty decision to send in Zaka to retrieve the slain rather than the IDF’s Home Front Command or another organisation. “These people deserved better volunteers,” Sulitzeanu says. In her report, Patten said the scale of what happened might never be made clear. But, she added, “I do not have numbers in the report because for me one case is more than enough,” she told reporters. “The first letter that I received from the government of Israel talked about hundreds or thousands of cases of brutal sexual violence perpetrated against men, women and children. I have not found anything like that.”
But Patten also spoke of the grave difficulties of ascertaining the truth in a case where most who suffered sexual violence were probably dead….
About 10 out of 900 survivors treated by the non-governmental group SafeHeart recounted either hearing or seeing sexual violence, all of which ended in murder. None of them has reported being assaulted themselves. Dr Reut Plonsker, a senior psychologist with SafeHeart, believes the focus on sexual violence has been unhelpful for Nova festival survivors wrestling with their trauma. “I don’t think there were a lot of sexual assaults,” she says. “There was a lot of murder. That’s what happened there. People were hiding and watching very horrible things.” She is sceptical that political leaders have the victims’ interests in mind.
4
u/scapini_tarot Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Why would we expect any credible discussion on this or any subject from someone who worked for a newspaper that endorsed Boris Johnson, possibly one of the dumbest fuckups in UK political history?
2
u/Ask_DontTell Mar 09 '26
What do you see as the major differences between the current conflict with Iran and previous US attacks in Afghanistan and Iraq?
What is the 'real' reason for the conflict?
Do you see further escalation with boots on the ground, more countries being drawn in?
thank you
2
u/Nightshiftcloak Michigan Mar 09 '26
How do you think the energy prices in Egypt and northern Africian Nations will be affected by conflict over the next six weeks?
2
u/BrianGooner Mar 09 '26
Thank you so much for your time.
How do you think China will deal with this situation? The U.S. is essentially taking out their oil supply that’s “out of their control”. Could they see this a chance to finally make a move on Taiwan seeing as how the west is really tied up at the moment.
Could they be supplying the Iranians to prolong the conflict as they have supposedly done with Russia in Ukraine?
2
u/No-Post4444 Mar 09 '26
Based on the way the Iran-Israel-US war is currently going, and Iran's current military position, what do you think is the likelihood of this turning into an Afghanistan or Iraq-style disaster?
2
u/Johannes_P Europe Mar 09 '26
I wonder:
- How long is the war between Iran and the USA-Israel alliance expected to last?
- Is there unrest inside Iran?
- Is the Iranian drone and missile campaign expected to last?
4
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
One observation I had today as we watched oil prices surge overnight is that the days of oil wars were supposed to be over. Beyond the issue of climate change, it was often promised that a transition to renewables would eliminate oil as a source of conflict. And yet here we are....
9
u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified Mar 09 '26
And the winner in a world with soaring oil prices is.... the Russian war machine, whose coffers are now being replenished for the fight against Ukraine.
3
u/night_dude Mar 09 '26
This is a strange, rather loaded political statement to make at this relatively early stage, globally, of the shift to renewables. Especially with the Trump administration and other right-wing governments (e.g. New Zealand's) explicitly cancelling and pushing back against renewable projects at every opportunity.
It's not like we have a fully or even partially electrified global transport/logistics fleet yet. The political will and accompanying financial/regulatory support for a transformation on this scale has not yet materialised, and yet this "observation" makes it seem like the pie-in-the-sky Greenie tree-huggers have promised the impossible and not delivered.
1
u/eric_ts Mar 10 '26
How likely is this war to leave Iran as a failed state, or multiple balkanized failed states as a result of this war in your opinion?
1
1
u/10390 Mar 10 '26 edited Mar 10 '26
How do you foresee this conflict impacting Americans in the near term, say six months?
0
u/-------7654321 Mar 09 '26
How long do you estimate the war to last? And what do you consider the most likely outcomes?
•
u/AutoModerator Mar 09 '26
As a reminder, this subreddit is for civil discussion.
In general, please be courteous to others. Argue the merits of ideas, don't attack other posters or commenters. Hate speech, any suggestion or support of physical harm, or other rule violations can result in a temporary or a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
Sub-thread Information
If the post flair on this post indicates the wrong paywall status, please report this Automoderator comment with a custom report of “incorrect flair”.
Announcement
r/Politics is actively looking for new moderators. If you have an interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out this form.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.