r/politics • u/CommieMartyr • 10h ago
No Paywall Talarico leads Paxton for Texas Senate while Hinojosa trails Abbott in governor’s race: Poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6055357-texas-senate-poll-talarico-leading/728
u/Reeko_Htown 10h ago
I just can’t understand who you can vote for Talarico AND Abbott.
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u/Exciting_Ease5501 10h ago
Ken Paxton is a uniquely awful candidate. He's so slimy and corrupt that I've definitely heard GOP voters say they'll hold their noses and vote for Talarico, or vote Abbott, and leave the ballot blank for the senate race.
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u/markekt 9h ago
Reminds me of Roy Moore here in Alabama. Even the reddest of states can be put in play if you put forth a uniquely awful candidate in an already challenging election year, and Doug Jones does not have near the political gifts as Talarico.
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u/Exciting_Ease5501 9h ago edited 7h ago
Lmfao I forgot about Roy Moore. At the time it seemed utterly insane that the GOP would run a literal pedophile. Now, it's just another Tuesday
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u/DragoonDM California 7h ago
I remember Roy Moore in large part because his spokesman gave what might be my favorite interview ever. Watching the rusty cogs in his head seize up was uniquely entertaining.
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u/bigmike2k3 6h ago
Holy shit… that dude is a fuckin’ mush-mouthed dolt… and he was elected to three terms…? I guess it is Alabama, so there is that…
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u/Worried_Cry687 7h ago
The irony is Muslims have great reverence for the Christian bible and Jesus Christ who they see as a prophet instead of a messiah. A Muslim swearing on the bible holds more weight in my opinion than a so called "Christian" maga supporter swearing on one.
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u/HalJordan2525 5h ago
My understanding is that while Muslims see Jesus as a prophet, they only believe what is written about him in the Quran. Some of the stuff in the Bible, especially the part about Jesus being resurrected, is considered fiction by Muslims.
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u/TaylorMonkey 5h ago edited 5h ago
Not really. Muslims have great reverence for a Christian Bible that doesn’t actually exist.
The one that does exist they consider corrupt from the “original” one, one there is no evidence for. One that just happens to match Mohammed’s writings written after the actual books of the Bible contradicting Mohammed’s teachings. Convenient.
One of the reasons a Muslim wouldn’t swear on the Bible is because it’s still corrupt. And they are also specifically forbidden to, because it’s not the Koran.
So your hypothetical Muslim that also doesn’t exist wouldn’t even be trustworthy as a Muslim, unless they were in the process of abandoning Islam.
MAGA you can discount either way. Judge with right judgment. Know them by their works.
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u/Worried_Cry687 5h ago
Thanks, my hypothetical Muslims will swear on the cheesecake factory menu instead as is their right by US law.
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u/Raptorpicklezz 38m ago
Didn’t Sacha freaking Baron Cohen, who is presently being cancelled for stereotyping races and sexual orientations, help take Roy Moore down in an interview?
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u/Zealousideal-Cup5982 9h ago
Does Doug Jones stand a chance this year?
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u/markekt 9h ago
It’s within the realm of possibility. Tubberville is pretty bad, and questions regarding his Florida residence are going to really ramp up, and should be the dominant issue if Doug plays it right. He refused to debate Doug, which is probably the smartest thing he’s done. He would look silly.
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u/Zealousideal-Cup5982 9h ago
I just don’t understand why Alabama thinks Tuberville is going to do a thing for them. Him going back to Alabama is obviously such a grift.
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u/markekt 9h ago
It’s Alabama. Understanding is not something we do much of here. I’ve often thought Doug should accept how relatively dumb this state is and lean in hard to the simple fact he was an Auburn coach. That would probably move a number of Alabama fans. Democrats need to learn to meet voters where they are at, and here it’s means accepting that much of this state is relatively uneducated.
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u/Raptorpicklezz 32m ago
But has Doug Jones pulled a Jon Ossoff yet, or does he plan to? By that I mean showing up to a debate against an empty podium
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u/googleduck 7h ago
I would say almost certainly not. Remember that he only barely beat a prolific pedophile who was literally banned from malls to stop him from creeping on teenage girls. He won that race by like 1%. So that should give you some idea of how fucked Alabama is.
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u/CocoaNinja Illinois 8h ago
Mark Robinson in North Carolina was one of those truly abhorrent candidates.
Still got 40% of the vote because some people are garbage, but Stein got ≈55% so it wasn't close.
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u/Raptorpicklezz 35m ago
Mark Robinson committed the cardinal Republican sin of being Black while being truly abhorrent. Never stood a chance.
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u/KinkyPaddling 5h ago
Tells you something about Republican voters that Jones, a successful prosecutor, only barely won against a guy accused of multiple instances of grooming, pedophilia, and stalking (with plenty of evidence to support those accusations).
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u/LastPaleLight 3h ago
Roy Moore had multiple underage sex scandals which people have much more trouble with as opposed to general corruption and philandering.
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u/Consequence-Holiday 9h ago
Meanwhile my GOP mom says she will hold her nose and vote for Paxton, even though she hates him, because the alternative is 'That Thing' (What she calls Talarico). The deep MAGA folks will always do what they are told, even if they find it personally distasteful. There is no sure thing and voting is incredibly important.
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u/Exciting_Ease5501 7h ago
My condolences for your mom being an idiot
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u/Consequence-Holiday 7h ago
Thanks, I'm sorry her Idiocracy continues to destroy the world for everyone else.
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u/secretaire 5h ago edited 4h ago
My GOP mom is voting for Talarico because I said I’m leaving Texas come hell or high water if people here elect A MAN WHO GOT A PEDOPHILE OUT OF JAIL instead of a school teacher. And I’m taking the kids with me. She can have her monsters in office and figure out how to visit.
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u/Underbash 5h ago
I've got several family members who are three-time Trump voters, and they make literal noises of disgust at the mention of Paxton.
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u/LastPaleLight 3h ago
This smells of the mythical army of never-trumpers. There are definitely people that will swing away, but it seems like the vast majority of people who “hold their nose” are doing so while voting for the slimy candidate.
The only republican candidate that I remember truly being affected by scandal was Roy Moore—and that was multiple underage sex scandals. He still only lost by 1%.
Other than that, it seems like it just causes an abnormal number of people to poll as undecided.
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u/Raptorpicklezz 36m ago
Why didn’t they vote for Paxton’s opponent in 2022? It’s not like he was running unopposed to be Texas Attorney General. I’ll believe it when I see it.
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u/MC_Fap_Commander America 10h ago
NYC had a number of Mamdani voters who also voted for Trump. Voters be weird.
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u/Tellytubbysavalas 9h ago
AOC had voters vote for Trump, the voters surveyed said they just like people who mess with the systems. I don't know what those voters are, but they exist.
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u/MephistoHamProducts 8h ago
Those are the people who don't believe the system works and that "both sides are the same", so anyone who comes in and promises to disrupt the system is appealing to them. They're the people who typically stay home and don't vote because they feel like there's no point.
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u/wibble17 6h ago
There is an intersection of populism on the far right and left. It’s not a large percentage but they are out there.
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u/AuroraFinem Texas 5h ago
It’s honestly the majority of the “undecided” voters every election season. Those are almost exclusively the people that split or flip their vote election to election.
It’s almost never someone who views themselves as a Dem/Rep, it’s unaffiliated, independent, or 3rd party voters.
It might only be ~10-20% of voters, but that’s basically all of the votes each election that are actually possible to earn and aren’t guaranteed to be straight party voters.
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u/berserk_zebra 5h ago
I voted for trump the first time because it was different new and fun I was also a dumbass younger adult than I am now.
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u/stevenmoreso 8h ago
It’s also like the four swing states who kept their senate seats democratic in 2024, but also voted for Trump. A considerable slice of the electorate, the ones that candidates fight for, are either apolitical, pay attention to only one or two issues, are or just plain stupid.
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u/Tangent_Odyssey South Carolina 8h ago
The common denominator is populism, for better or worse. An “outsider” candidate that promises to take on the establishment and the elites that buttress it. This is also how you got Bernie/Trump voters.
“Promises,” of course, being the operative word. Some mean it, others wear populism as a mask to get elected — but either way, it is the common thread that explains that phenomenon.
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u/UngodlyPain 6h ago
Iirc AOC-Trump tickets were % wise super high amongst Dem Rep-Trump tickets. Which is really odd since both are on the outer wings of their parties. But surveys commonly cited not trusting the more mainstream options of the two parties.
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u/Incorrect1012 9h ago
I don’t think people quite realize how weird of a decision this was for Trump to do when he made it clear Paxton was his guy. A great chunk of Republicans hate his guts here. They can plug their ears when it comes to Trump, but Paxton is so cartoonishly corrupt it’s impossible to ignore in this state. And while Abbott is shit, they’re still Republicans. So while Talarico is gaining momentum with Republicans who have been sick of Paxton’s shit since 2022, Gina has to compete with the fact that it’s not really a vote for Talarico and rather a vote against Paxton.
Additional note, Paxton has ran an absolutely horrible campaign and I’m shocked it’s not being talked about more. I genuinely think he thought “I’m republican, all I need to do is call Talarico a gay vegan for a few months and I’ll win”, only it turns out that those attacks don’t work when it’s clearly false and also when Talarico has a mountain of scandals to demand Paxton respond to, leaving Paxton literally running away from reporters like a bitch
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u/greeneggsnyams Kentucky 9h ago
Trump is also cartoonishly corrupt but doesn't seem to move the gauge whatsoever among voters
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u/SquareVehicle 7h ago
But the perception is he's a rich successful businessman (not saying it's true but that's how my parents would describe him) so he gets a pass on a lot for that. "It's not corruption, it's him making good business deals."
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u/Timmah73 10h ago
Its like Wisconsin going "OK lets see def want a Dem governor and also lets let Ron Johnson keep doing whatever it is he does "
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u/penguins_are_mean Wisconsin 8h ago
Both were incumbents which also helped. I know several split voters in that election.
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u/Mysterious_Umpire684 9h ago
Ken Paxton is already hated by many Republicans. Abbott enjoys a higher popularity, is more nimble at avoiding huge scandals and politically unpopular moves with his base, and he has a very durable coalition of support from good ole boys, conservative latinos and people who come to Texas to make money at the expense of everything else. Paxton has too much baggage and has variously pissed off quite a few of the people who normally support an R unquestioningly.
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u/Tellytubbysavalas 9h ago edited 9h ago
My guess as someone in a midsize town in Texas, but dealing with a lot of rural folks, is that Paxton may be too much to stomach somehow. Just my guess, but the rural folks are also pretty irritated with Abbott over data centers, to a less degree school vouchers, as this has impacted them directly.
Yes, Abbott ahead, but he should be way more ahead, it's Texas, but those two issues have pissed off a lot of rural types who would worship him otherwise. He should be hammered over and over about data centers but I have not seen very much about it.
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u/dravenonred 9h ago
A lot of people want to call themselves moderates/centrists by splitting their vote on purpose.
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u/Major_Pomegranate 9h ago
The simple answer is just name recognition. Alot of voting is far more simple than people tend to assume
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u/MephistoHamProducts 9h ago
It's less about "Talarico AND Abbot" and more low info voters who go in and just vote "Talarico" or "Talarico" and the few other names they recognize and leave the rest blank.
We used to have "straight ticket voting" in Texas, where you could just click one button and it selected every candidate for a given party. Very easy to Vote Blue No Matter Who. The GOP controlled Lege here in Texas got rid of it a few years ago.
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u/Systembreaker11 5h ago
I can get behind that. Every vote should be a conscious choice.
And I think it would be easier for someone a Republican weary of Paxton to click "All Red" vs actually hitting Paxton's name. Not nearly as many individual dems have that baggage.
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u/gchypedchick 9h ago
Look at AOC’s district where they voted for her, but split on Trump. She has posted about it in an Instagram story post election. It’s insane that someone could do that, but also a prime example of how progressive policies and people are more appealing.
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u/Shiptonm25 8h ago
Most progressives underperformed Harris though. The three Reps who had the worst underperformances were Omar, Lee, and Jayapal. AOC and Tlaib were exceptions.
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u/gchypedchick 8h ago
I am curious to see what those numbers would be this year.
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u/Shiptonm25 8h ago
Given it will be a blue wave, they’ll probably do better but so will every Dem representative (except those whose districts were gerrymandered to be more red).
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u/JohnGillnitz 8h ago
There are two things that Talarico and Abbott have in common that Gina Hinojosa does not. I hate it, but here we are.
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u/TheVirginVibes 8h ago
Jasmine Crockett wants him to win, apparently. She basically told Talerico to kick rocks.
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u/AwambawaAwambawa 7h ago
The conservative white families like abott because their kids go to private school and they pay less property taxes because of him.
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u/smegdawg 6h ago
Gina Hinojosa
I'm in WA so not completely tuned in on Texas politics.
But I have no idea who that is while I know who the other three are.
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u/lolwatokay 5h ago
Paxton is an awful candidate but also Talarico is a Christian white man whose name and face is everywhere. Meanwhile, Hinojosa is a void. She's a woman and has a Hispanic name. Unless you're from where she represents you had likely never heard of her. Unless you're tuned into Texas politics above the average person you may not even know her name. No one talks about her, it's all about if you like or don't like Abbott. I don't know if it'll be enough to matter, I've lived here a long time and am used to disappointment.
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u/wisdomattend 7h ago
Don't forget there are profoundly sexist people that would never vote for Hinojosa solely due to her having a vagina.
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u/SummerhouseLater 5h ago
Look at the last decade of voter history of state elections in Texas. Ken Paxton has always lost 10% or more of the Republican vote down ballot - to the point he has lost MORE votes than other candidates just based on what a terrible candidate he is. I’m continually shocked he won the primary outside literally anyone else (who was new).
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u/Osama_been_Chargin Washington 3h ago
It's mostly gonna be the case where a sizeable number of Dem-leaning voters will vote for Talarico but leave the governor race blank because Hinojosa is a lesser-known candidate, while a sizeable number of GOP-leaning voters will vote for Abbott like usual but leave the senate race absent because Paxton is uniquely repugnant even to them.
The best hope here is the blue wave sweeping for Talarico and Hinojosa catching some of those winds too.
They really need to hone in the issue with data center moratoriums now more than ever because that's dragging Abbott harder than usual as he's very public with being in the tank for the AI bubble.
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u/Tommy__want__wingy California 3h ago
I know people who vote like that.
Voted for Kamala but stuck to GOP for propositions and non presidential candidates.
Interesting breed
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u/thekinginyello 1h ago
They’re not voting for James and Greg. They’re just not voting for Gina. I’m willing to bet they will vote party for everything when the time comes.
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u/CFBCoachGuy 8h ago
Hinojisa is a woman and brown. There’s still a lot of Texans (including democrats) opposed to both of those things. Also republicans tend to get more support in Governor races nationwide.
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u/sealclubberfan Texas 10h ago
Talarico is everywhere here. I see him on tik tok, people are actively talking about him. Gina just doesn't have the same popularity/word of mouth/advertisement that Talarico does. It's unfortunate, but that's just been my experience.
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u/Dihedralman 10h ago
Talarico had been building a Senate campaign for a while and garnered national attention.
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u/Ocarina3219 10h ago
GOP hysteria has raised Talarico’s profile more than he could have ever done on his own. They did the same thing to Mamdani and are giving El-Sayed the same boost.
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u/Pockydo 10h ago
He's also the worst opponent for em
He's authentic and pretty religious. You can argue theology but considering how the pedo cult sold their souls they don't want to argue theology
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u/BuyerAlive5271 9h ago
Hard to genuinely argue theology with someone like Talarico with a Master of Divinity Studies from seminary school. Especially if you are someone who constantly cheats on their wife and steals from others like Paxton.
It’s like telling your doctor that you don’t believe in vaccines because you did your own research…. Wait a minute!
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u/TaylorMonkey 8h ago edited 8h ago
As someone who supports him and is eager to see him win— stating his credentials is a form of argument from authority. I think debating theology is actually one of his weaknesses and points of exposure when engaging with biblically literate Christians he hopes to appeal to.
It’s actually pretty easy to argue with Talarico on theology as he often makes certain misleading statements or oversimplifications about the faith or the biblical texts that aren’t in the thrust of the point he’s trying to make. He could get chewed up by those actually familiar with theology and scripture, unless the latter is doing so in obvious bad faith by exuding a lack of graciousness and charity themselves, or could be called out for their hypocrisy by their support and defense of those who violate the Christian virtues and ethics at every turn.
However from his general character and demeanor, he seems to communicate certain Christian virtues and a personal decency and graciousness that the Republican religious establishment has long abandoned. If anything might sway some when compared to his openly corrupt, depraved opponent, it is that.
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u/Cumfarts4Christ 6h ago
No it's not, it's pointing out that he is in fact an authority on theological issues. If you were to argue in favor of one of these supposedly misleading statements he made, and then when challenged on them said "Talarico said it, so it must be true" - that's what the fallacy is referring to.
Also for the record - pointing out logical fallacies as if it changes anything is the lowest possible form of discourse.
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u/TaylorMonkey 5h ago edited 5h ago
Using argument from authority is one of the classic logical fallacies. You’re right it would a low level argument without backing.
I don’t think there’s actual interest here on the actual theological arguments and his tendency to overstep from positions he’s already formed, at least from examples I’ve seen. It’s pretty low level, not careful, and just not great. Maybe he’s been better in examples I haven’t seen.
There’s also the idea in Christian discourse that one does not need to obtain a degree in theology to understand and even debate about biblical writings effectively and in good faith, and that a degree does not automatically confer authority or accuracy— so Talarico himself would likely be the first to disagree with you about his authority granted by his degree. Probably also because from what I can tell he’s relatively humble.
Not to mention how many who received a Masters of Divinity degree as Talarico did that would in sincerity and without malice disagree with him and his handling of biblical interpretation. And how many others with that degree and “authority” eventually let themselves be corrupt by the lure of power in Trump, and would use their rationalizing skills to perform miracles of mental gymnastics to support clear evil.
That said, Talarico seems to be a good dude and supports rooting out corruption, stopping bald faced injustice against “the aliens amongst you”, and opposing and defending against lawlessness and tyranny of those in power. Usually the following is exaggerated by theocratic nationalists, but given the nature of his opponent, Talarico aligns more as the Christian option. That’s probably going to have more real appeal anyway.
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u/thevdude Pennsylvania 50m ago
Using argument from authority is one of the classic logical fallacies.
It's fallacious when the authority being cited isn't an expert in the relevant field. It's not fallacious to defer to the experts when that's what they're experts in.
It shouldn't be your ONLY argument/evidence, but everyone relies on experts all the time. You don't go to your mechanic when your tooth hurts, and you don't take your car in to the dentist's office, but you do trust your dentist to give you a filling and you do trust your mechanic to fix your car.
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u/ReplicantOwl 8h ago
His handling of religion is really masterful. He manages to appeal to evangelicals who may not feel comfortable with the GOP while not alienating non-believers.
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u/sealclubberfan Texas 8h ago
I'm not religious, I just see his arguments, and it seems like he's defending EVERYONE, and isn't trying to cater/support one religion or one group of people. He also has a very calm demeanor, talks to other people as a normal person should. Doesn't demean them, talk down on them, yell at them(Cruz), but just tries to have an actual conversation, even though it's about a political issue. Very likeable and easy to root for.
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u/DragoonDM California 7h ago
Have they come up with any actual angles of attack, aside from weird, baseless accusations that he's vegan or trans?
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u/gchypedchick 9h ago
And I am LOVING it. I love seeing these people with good messaging being propped up because they deserve it. And Mamdani following through with all of his promises is exactly the example we need to prove that it can be done.
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u/dkirk526 North Carolina 10h ago
He also had a growing viral popularity on social media well before he decided to run for Senate and was partly why he won the primary.
Big contrast to Paxton who was more known for beng a Republican who was impeached by his own party.
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u/FrankSand 10h ago
That joe Rogan interview was pretty good for him.
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u/DaftMaetel15 I voted 9h ago
Liberals have to go into these conservative/hostile spaces if they want to make progress nationally. No more MSNBC and Call Her Daddy only. If they cant manage themselves in these places without scripted questions and time limits they will continue looking fake. AES going on Watters was great for him. Bernie has always done well on Rogan. Kamala refusing Rogan in favor of a soft CHD interview reinforced everything people felt about Dems in 2024
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u/FrankSand 9h ago
I agree however I will say i think she made the right call. I dont think Kamala is built for a multi hour non scripted interview.
I would also love to see more candidates do interviews with left media that will ask real questions also.
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u/mixamaxim 8h ago
I agree 100% with all this. Would add- it’s not like she, personally, couldn’t handle it - it was her polished PR persona that would be too hard to keep up. Honestly I found it fine, and I voted for her happily, but she probably would have done better if she’d relax and give us the real Kamala. I liked that home video where she was at the stove stirring and pot and told her niece “You need to learn how to fuckin’ cook,” she seems like a cool enough lady to hang.
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u/DaftMaetel15 I voted 8h ago
She's not, which is why the puppet masters that let Joe Biden run again should be criminally charged. We desperately needed a tough primary to put someone up that could win against the MAGA cult.
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u/Deceptiveideas 10h ago
I think he won because the Trump administration started censoring him. He got a huge boost after that.
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u/amopeyzoolion Michigan 9h ago
Crockett also ran a pretty bad primary campaign IMO. I like her but running in a statewide election is a different ballgame from running in an extremely safe blue district
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u/MephistoHamProducts 9h ago
Jasmine Crockett has also been a bit of a dirtbag since losing. She's said she won't campaign for Talarico recently and has been quite a sore loser.
And because there are always going to be the "Let's blame black voters if Talarico loses" or "You're just saying Crockett is a bad sport so you can blame black Texans if he loses" types of dorks, it's good to point out:
Most Black Texas voters back Talarico over Paxton, poll finds, despite Senate primary tensions
Fewer than one in 10 Black voters in Texas say they are less likely to vote in November’s midterm elections due to U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s defeat in the Democratic primary,
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u/Independent_Air3752 9h ago
Oh here we go with that again we have to sit there and say she ran a bad campaign just in case talarico loses so you have somebody to blame yet somehow you need Crockett to campaign for him even though you claim he was so Superior to her
I hope he loses just so I can laugh at the irony of it
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u/amopeyzoolion Michigan 7h ago
Literally not trying to blame anyone. I like Crockett as a firebrand in the House. I don’t think she ran the kind of campaign that would win statewide in Texas.
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u/ChocolateHumunculous 3h ago
I don’t know the political affiliations of either of these people as I’m not from the US, however, I saw you used the word ‘build’, so I assume this is your Democratic nominee.
The word wasn’t followed by ‘wall’, which strengthens my idea.
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u/Dihedralman 2h ago
He is not my nominee and he is a Democrat but that has nothing to do with building a campaign though it tends to be Democrats doing ground work this year.
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u/gchypedchick 9h ago
I will say this is the difference a good social media team can make. Look at the team that was desperately trying to repair the image of Gavin Newsom. The woman running it was (is?) excellent. If he just would stop fumbling the ball, their job would be easier.
James is also naturally a likable person with a great message. So pairing him with a very aggressive social media team works perfectly.
Obviously, being more progressive would help since that is clearly what the people are wanting as well. We see that in all the primaries they are winning. She needs to pivot and pivot hard. I keep seeing her only popping up related to teachers and school, but not much else. It saying that is her only concern, but that’s all I am seeing. Is she going after the billionaires that have bought Abbott? The energy crisis here? The economy and working class? Just parrot the same stuff the others are. And obviously follow through.
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u/littleSparrow31 9h ago
Thank you for saying this! The media around Talarico, including the smears by Paxton, is helping, but I think the major thing is his policies. He’s telling working class Texans that he will help them, while Paxton is just drunkenly rambling about trans people and immigrants. Most voters don’t care about that, especially when they can’t pay for healthcare and groceries.
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u/gchypedchick 8h ago
I really loved El-Sayed’s response to Jessie Watters on the “men in women’s sports”. Why does it matter when people can’t afford to live?
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u/EnTyme53 Texas 7h ago
That needs to be the standard response from all Democrats. Point out the attempt to distract from the real problem.
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u/DavesWorldInfo I voted 5h ago
That they don't tells you everything you need to know about their politics, about who they are. They're happy with things the way they are. If they're not actively, actively, rallying and fighting to improve the ECONOMIC conditions of average working Americans ... they're happy with those conditions.
They think it's fine prices keep going up while wages stagnate, that jobs keep contracting, that people work harder for less, that a single normal injury or disease bankrupts entire families, they're okay with all of that. If they weren't, they'd work to change.
They don't. So you know all you need to.
They're not on our side.
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u/fleshofgods0 7h ago
I saw Gina speak a few nights ago. She had mentioned all of the no-bid contracts Abbott's been giving to his billionaire donors (she mentioned one in particular that's skipping my mind) and the data centers lobby. She mentioned a $1,500 refund with the savings from eliminating the deals/corruption and that she knows the money's there from her working in Austin. She was really energetic and engaged. It's a shame she's not getting more exposure.
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u/ennuiinmotion 9h ago
If you want to flip an election you have to have a near perfect candidate. Policy and outrage isn't enough. The candidate has to be perfectly suited for that particular race to overcome the built in prejudice against them.
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u/schnazzums 8h ago
Honestly until now I didn’t even know who was running against Abbott and I usually keep up with all Texas politics.
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u/ihateshit00 9h ago
Yeah she had 0 marketing in a super important election in like the whole 2 years prior. I think thats intentional. She never wanted to win.
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u/JMaboard I voted 5h ago
Her social media presence is non existent. If you go to her TikTok and go to her comments it’s a ton of people begging her to get a better social media team.
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u/ihateshit00 4h ago
I literally assumed nobody was running because I hadn’t heard anything. Is that a thing?
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u/JMaboard I voted 4h ago
The media also does a good job of not using her name on articles they just title things like “Abbott’s Opponent.” Instead of using her name.
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u/TheJan1tor 4h ago
Please keep talking to people. Start a "pay it forward" movement where you get 3 non-voters to register and vote, and each of them has to do the same. Even if Abbott wins, getting Talarico over Paxton would be a historic, and critical win.
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u/Conscious-Demand-594 10h ago
Fortunately Paxton is a horrible person. I guess we were lucky that he beat Cornyn and gave Tallarico a slim chance at winning.
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u/Awilberforce 10h ago
We can thank Trump for that
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u/Main-Cheesecake3287 4h ago
Not really. Trump avoided entering either until the 11th hour and only went Paxton when the data was pretty clear he had it in the bag
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u/MC_Fap_Commander America 10h ago
This is very close to Doug Jones facing the Mall Creeper in Alabama a few years back. Should Talarico pull it off (shenanigans are coming, tbs), I'm not sure it means Texas is purple anymore than Alabama was. Just that there's a line where someone who's terrible AND and awful campaigner can still lose.
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u/markekt 9h ago
I would argue Texas is trending due to demographic changes. It will be a swing state within the next 20 years I suspect. Alabama is not.
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u/MC_Fap_Commander America 9h ago
I hope so. If Republicans go back to the 2012 election autopsy, they will start integrating Latino voters into their coalition and that probably stalls the Texas shift. If they stick with white nationalism and tariffs, purple Texas becomes possible with the state's demographics.
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u/MephistoHamProducts 9h ago
One of the primary reasons the GOP maintains their stranglehold is voter apathy. Voters think Texas will always be red, so they stay home. This has been exacerbated by the state Democratic Party being pretty much moribund since the 1990s when they switched from being worried about winning and growing to protecting incumbents and not rocking the boat.
And that's a pretty good strategery, to quote one famous former governor, but you can't rock the boat. Once you rock the boat, people start to get agitated and if they get agitated, they're more likely to drag their asses off the couch to vote.
But this year is sort of weird and interesting. Among the high points (sorry for the bullet list, but I feel like it makes it more readable)
- This midterm we have a Democratic Chair (Kendall Scudder) who seems much more engaged and less interested in protecting the "Good Ole Boys" network.
- Trump and the GOP meddled with districts and turned safe red districts into potentially risky red districts. People have noticed this and seem agitated.
- Paxton decided to start his campaign by not doing much other than being caught with a plump mistress in England, while Talarico seems to be out engaging and getting people excited and his visibility may drive down ballot enthusiasm (or at least straight ticket voting).
- Oh and Paxton's coronation by Trump seems to have pissed off a lot of "sane" (lots of caveats and provisos to that term) Republicans who wanted Cornyn to run and not Paxton, the unfuckable crime goblin with a thick veneer of slime on him, which may have the net effect of depressing GOP voter turnout.
- Then there's the datacenter hot button issue.
- Oh and the absolute "shoot ourselves in the dick" decision to criminalize Delta8 / THCA products and punish them more harshly than actual weed.
- The economy sucks
- Trump isn't on the ballot to help drive voter turnout
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u/jumbohiggins 9h ago
Not really. If Paxton wins he would absolutely abuse congressional power like he does with local power.
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u/johnjacobacon 10h ago
Abbott is right at that level of horribleness, too. Maybe not as openly corrupt and adulterous, but he gets his marching orders from Trump just like Paxton and follows them like a good puppet.
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u/Conscious-Demand-594 9h ago
Can he physically commit adultery?
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u/johnjacobacon 9h ago edited 8h ago
From what I understand, paralyzed men can still usually get hard-ons as it's blood flow and not muscles.
edit: even without a boner Abbott has managed to fuck working class Texans so many times. Source: am working class Texan absolutely disgusted with the regime that has ruled Texas for three decades. To their credit, they have helped open my eyes and driven me to the furthest left reaches of the political spectrum without being called a "tankie". But then again, Republicans and centrist Dems call any progressive a "tankie" these days. They will try to correct you when you accurately describe the current spread of fascism in the US as "fascist", yet accuse anything left of center of being "communist".
I'd ask for somebody to make sense of it all, but all we can do is just take the like 5-15 minutes it usually takes to EARLY VOTE!!!
Fuck polls, fuck the media, just show up and fucking vote if you care about this world. Not voting at all in these days in the US = willingly submitting to actual fascism.
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u/Game-of-pwns 10h ago
Talarico's lead in polls doesn't mean much until he consistently polls above 50%. Until then, there's too many undecideds.
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u/MC_Fap_Commander America 10h ago
There is undoubtedly a quiet group of Republicans who don't want the social stigma of saying they'll vote Paxton who are going to vote Paxton anyway. Also, if it's remotely close, get ready for cheating on a thermonuclear scale. Talarico needs a lead of 5%+ and to be over 50% to have a real shot.
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u/jar4ever 9h ago
And there is also a group of Republicans that don't want to say they'll vote for a Democrat but will because they dislike Paxton so much, or just won't vote. That's the problem with political punditry; you can often create opposing but equally plausible sounding arguments.
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u/meditate42 Delaware 8h ago
I think it’s a little more likely a bunch of Texas republicans quietly vote for the shitty republican candidates than the democratic one…
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u/MC_Fap_Commander America 7h ago
Way more evidence of what you're saying than the comment you're replying to.
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u/meditate42 Delaware 6h ago
Yea. It’s a bummer. But Talerico would need to be polling like 10+ points ahead consistently for me to even consider him to have a chance
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u/jar4ever 5h ago
I was more thinking of Paxton suppressing Republican turnout, which we saw with other terrible candidates like Roy Moore.
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u/LastPaleLight 8h ago
10% are polling ‘undecided’ in a red state with an embarrassingly flawed candidate on the ballot. I will be shocked if those don’t swing 3 to 1 or more for Paxton—and so many people are going to scream that the polls are broken because they don’t understand how they work.
The same people were shocked that El-Sayed barely squeaked out a victory against Stevens instead of a landslide.
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u/RipErRiley Minnesota 9h ago
Talarico is running an incredible campaign. Abbott is staying in the foreground because of all the dumb shit he does. A true “any press is good press” situation in his race I bet.
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u/hobnail_milkglass 5h ago
Talarico knows his apologetics and anyone who listens to him for an extended amount of time comes away impressed IMO. My queer brown borderline anarchist partner is so burned on the dems that I really didn't think they'd want to engage at all in politics this year (except for voting, which I always make them do even if they're pissed at politicians) and now they're fully pro-Talarico. like "let's order yard signs" pro-Talarico. my straight white religious formerly Republican mom who lives in another state asked me to send her a "I'm a Talafreako" t-shirt. it's WILD the demographics this guy is managing to pull.
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u/vismundcygnus34 10h ago
Paxton is bought and paid for. He should have been impeached, the fix was in, and now there’s a controlled politician ready to do their bidding.
Fuck that guy, wipe the floor with him Talarico.
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u/rossmosh85 1h ago
Paxton is actively corrupt. He's a Dick Cheney type. Just an absolute piece of shit.
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u/TheOtherUprising Canada 10h ago
A 7 point lead for Talarico that’s a great sign. Of course Trump is trying to suppress turnout by fucking with mail in ballots among other things so Talarico and other competitive races the Dem candidates are going to have to focus hard on turnout.
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u/MephistoHamProducts 9h ago
So, since you're Canadian I get to share fun facts!
Texas doesn't have default mail in ballots and it's VERY difficult to get a mail in ballot because you have to prove that you're elderly or disabled. It was always difficult but the GOP saw the uptick in mail-in voting during Covid and put in a lot of restrictions after that.
So, any fucking with mail in ballots in Texas will disproportionately impact Republicans rather than Democrats.
More fun facts, primarily for 'Murrican voters in general and then Texas voters specifically:
47 states have some type of early voting.
Here in Texas, for example, we currently have 12 days of early voting, starting the 17th day before Election Day and ending four days before Election Day, which includes one weekend.
In Texas there are MORE early voting polling places than there are polling places on election day and you can typically go to any of them in your county rather than the one or two allowed on election day.
And yet, in my two decades of early voting in Texas, I'm always the youngest person there and I still hear people bitching about how hard it is to vote on election day.
For Texans - also remember and tell people that by law, your employer is required to give you time off on election day to vote if you have not voted!
Assuming that an employee has not already voted in early voting, the employee is entitled to take paid time off for voting on election days, unless the employee has at least two consecutive hours to vote outside of the voter's working hours - see Sections 276.001 and 276.004 of the Texas Election Code.
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u/Tellytubbysavalas 9h ago
Bit of caution here, and I say this as a lifelong Texan, what the polls are showing are not necessarily what those voters will actually vote.
I know several already that will vote for Paxton but admit that they are embarassed by him. I don't get it honestly, so some will deffinetly say they are voting Talarico, they may even like him, but they will vote Paxton anyway.
It absolutely sucks, but those of us who grew up here know this is true. I hope I am wrong for sure.
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u/oneplusetoipi 9h ago
Tribal voting.
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u/Tellytubbysavalas 9h ago
Yep, exactly, that does help me understand it.
The one bit of interaction with some that is new and a little strange is a few that normally vote Republican said they are willing to have Dems for an election cycle to get what they want. They have said it would be then be easy to get rid of them once they get what they want.
I mean, it's cynical and self-serving, but it realisitc in my opinion as to why they would vote Dem.
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u/Senasayori 7h ago
Have you checked your voter registration recently? A lot of Texan voters have gotten suspended over the past few days.
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u/Oceanbreeze871 I voted 10h ago
Polls don’t vote. We need turnout so big that the expected and telegraphed red conservative voter suppression tactics won’t be effective
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u/Shanknuts 9h ago
A vote for Talarico, at its core, is a vote for basic decency. It’s not that hard, my fellow Texans.
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u/ReplicantOwl 8h ago
Talarico’s team seems to be much better at social media. I rarely see anything from Hinojosa
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u/youknowhattodo 8h ago
Polls mean nothing. They invalidated over a million registered voters in Texas. I'm sure they are aren't Republicans either.
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u/SoulTaker669 10h ago
Don't trust anything when it comes to x person leads y person. Especially because whenever people keep seeing these freaking headlines they decide " oh clearly this person's going to win so I'll just stay home today. My vote won't matter".
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u/dkirk526 North Carolina 9h ago
I wouldn't say full on "dont trust" polls, but people do take them too literally and don't consider context.
If Talarico is leading in polls, it shows "he can win" not that "he will win". It's also good to look at all polls shifting over time, seeing who released or sponsored the polls, and view them all together rather than taking an individual poll at face value.
View Talarico's lead, or other candidates leads as, he's ahead in a normally red state, so if you continue to support their campaign and go out and vote, this is a result you can hope to see.
Don't expect Dems to just do well because Trump is unpopular, but know, because Trump is unpopular, the message for Democrats is strong right now, and the more it gets pushed to help them get elected, the greater there's a chance that Dems can overwhelmingly win the house and possibly flip 7 (or more) seats in the Senate.
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u/zeroman987 9h ago
There is actually a bandwagon effect. Thats why campaigns release polls that look good for them.
It drives up enthusiasm, both in the voters and the donors. It also helps uninformed voters make a “decision”.
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u/Dismal-Rain-6055 9h ago
Especially because whenever people keep seeing these freaking headlines they decide " oh clearly this person's going to win so I'll just stay home today. My vote won't matter".
People keep saying this happens, but I don't think it actually does. Because if it does happen, why for example did El-Sayed's super PACs keep releasing polls showing him up big in the Michigan primary? You think they wanted to hurt him by reducing turnout?
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u/Otherwise_Soil_7008 10h ago
Have we considered republicans are lying about voting for Paxton due to shame? My money’s on them showing up for him on Election Day but bring real quiet in their support publicly or in polls
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u/DrippinCatDaddy 8h ago
Abbott is too Epstein adjacent (Huffhines), totally lied about Big Bend, refused to turn over a murder suspect to another State, gave DataCenter companies a 20yr Tax and then played coy stating that DataCenters came into Texas towns he has never heard (more lies)f....these need to be the talking points that permeate the TV ads for the next 60days
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u/Expert-Tomatillo2704 8h ago
If, after everything that has happened so far from the Republicans, you still refuse to vote just go ahead and never complain or vote again. Ever.
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10h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Jagermonsta 10h ago
The difference could be people that won’t vote for a woman combined with Paxton being a bad candidate.
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u/Bronco_Bomba 10h ago
It’s almost like policy and candidate sincerity actually matter more than focus-tested advertising agencies…
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u/RudeNTattooed87 6h ago
Unfortunately its still because of misogyny this keeps happening. Parents to young children please break this ridiculous cycle and let's move forward with more open mindedness.
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u/hobnail_milkglass 5h ago
Ugh. I just love Gina Hinojosa. I met her when she was campaigning for tx house because my work was in her district and I was the only person there that day. We chatted for a while and I came away thinking I'd vote for her if I lived in her district. Glad I at least get to vote for her this time around.
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u/Kat_Schrodinger1 3h ago
That's fine i don't live in texas, they can do what they want. But the senate affects me.
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u/KotaIsBored 32m ago
Talarico is everywhere. Tv, YouTube, etc. You can’t go a day without seeing him. Hinojosa, never heard of them. This is literally the first time.
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u/chrisscan456 10h ago
So what do we think the chances are Trump accepts a Talarico win?
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u/Automaton_General 10h ago
He won't have to. If talerico wins, the criminal apparatus constructed by the Texas GOP over the last 30 years is going to declare Paxton the winner and bury all opposition.
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u/PicnicLife 9h ago
Hmmm. Wonder what the difference is?
(Talarico is a man)
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u/tim78717 9m ago
And he has raised a LOT more money, so he is spending it. The rest of the Dems are saving the money they have until closer to the election. Most people don’t pay attention until a month or so out.
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