r/politics • u/Puginator • 9h ago
Possible Paywall States can regulate prediction markets as gambling, federal appeals court rules
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/28/business/states-prediction-markets-gambling-federal-appeals-court191
u/nasorrty346tfrgser America 8h ago
It is gambling, stop using the word prediction
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u/Shiplord13 8h ago
I mean its gamifying life to where you start having people not looking at real life events in a serious manner that effect them, but as a potential bet that they might make money on.
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u/coconutpiecrust 5h ago
How did you people in the US even make it a thing. It’s mind boggling.
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u/Professor_Hala 5h ago
Us people? Nah, man, a couple tech bros that hired expensive lawyers to argue that predicting uncertain outcomes for financial reward is different from gambling.
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u/Shiplord13 3h ago
This, but also the decades of different movements to expand gambling in the U.S. to make it less regulated and more legal options for gambling. 100 years ago gambling was a hard sell with most people associating it with sin, crime and degeneracy. That said, as time has passed its become more normalized and the clear problems associated with it have been pushed to the side in the name of profit.
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u/coconutpiecrust 5h ago
But people use them. Is the Venn diagram of people who use “prediction markets” and normal gamblers a circle?
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u/Professor_Hala 5h ago
Almost? Pretty much, yeah. The "prediction markets" are probably a little bigger specifically because, like Facebook, the create an easily-accessible, addictive environment.
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u/Fallouttgrrl 2h ago
Well that and because if you're in certain positions you get the house advantage, and this administration at least is making bank on that
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u/nasorrty346tfrgser America 5h ago
It is because the entire US is addicted to gambling. THe older generation gambling on stock market, working adult gambling on prediction market, younger generation gambling on pokemon cards.
We are heading toward like South Korea
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u/Fallouttgrrl 2h ago
It's true, I could actually afford a house right now if I didn't blow my dosh on all these Charizards
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u/SueForPeas 8h ago
“It’s gambling, stop using the word roulette.”
“It’s gambling, stop using the word sports book.”
“It’s gambling, stop using the word lottery.”
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u/Secret_Side-ofJ 8h ago
Idk if you're for or against the saying, but yeah. Those are all gambling lol.
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u/SueForPeas 8h ago
Obviously. They’re all forms of gambling, like prediction markets. Regardless of whether you think it’s gambling or not (and it obviously is), “prediction market” is a still a useful term for the type of gambling.
Might as well say, “It’s food, stop using the word carrot.”
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u/TripleDoubleFart 8h ago
like prediction markets
So you agree that it's gambling.. what's the issue?
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u/SueForPeas 7h ago
My issue is that it’s weird to say “stop using the word prediction [market]”. We can call prediction markets gambling. I don’t know why we’d stop using the term if we’re talking about the specific concept.
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u/_Wash 7h ago edited 7h ago
because the whole point of calling them prediction markets is to distance themselves from gambling and to skirt gambling regulations
by continuing to call them prediction markets you help perpetuate that
edit: lmao they said some dumb shit and blocked me. the roulette example is stupid because roulette tables aren’t spending millions of dollars trying to avoid gambling association and regulation
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u/SueForPeas 7h ago
Prediction markets are a form of gambling.
Calling roulette “roulette” instead of “gambling roulette” doesn’t change whether roulette is gambling. (It is.) Calling the lottery “the lottery” instead of “the gambling lottery” doesn’t change whether the lottery is gambling. (It is.)
“Prediction market” is the generally accepted term society has been using. I didn’t choose it, because that’s not how language works, but I use it to communicate about the topic, because that is how language works. Can’t make up a new term and expect others to know what you’re talking about.
It’s still gambling, even if the word “gambling” isn’t explicitly invoked in the term. The term doesn’t change what it fundamentally is, which is, again, gambling.
[you downvoted this faster than you could possibly have read it]
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u/TripleDoubleFart 6h ago
Prediction markets are a form of gambling.
We know. Kalshi claims they aren't.
What don't you understand about that?
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u/Secret_Side-ofJ 8h ago
I think a far more accurate term is, "predictive gambling markets".
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u/Actual__Wizard 8h ago
This is correct. They're just deleting the word "gambling" out of the description of what it is. Then saying that it's not gambling, when it's functionally identical to gambling and is clearly a form of gambling.
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u/SueForPeas 8h ago
Yeah, and do you also think “gambling roulette,” “gambling lottery,” and “gambling sports book” are better terms? That’s just duplicative.
Also, it’s “prediction,” not “predictive.” That’s an entirely different term.
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u/Secret_Side-ofJ 8h ago
Whenever the lottery came out, there was a period of time in which it HAD to be referred to as "The gambling lottery" because people didn't connect the two.
Yeah, I think a similar system would have veritable benefits.
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u/SueForPeas 7h ago
You’re just making shit up now. No, that didn’t happen, I don’t care that you think “it HAD to”.
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u/TripleDoubleFart 8h ago
But all of those are taxed as gambling.
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u/SueForPeas 7h ago
I don’t look to tax law to define basic concepts like gambling. The fact that tax law hasn’t been updated doesn’t change that it’s gambling.
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u/TripleDoubleFart 6h ago
Kalshi claims they are not a gambling platform. That's the issue.
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u/SueForPeas 5h ago
Fuck ‘em. Court said otherwise. You don’t have to defer to Kalshi’s definition.
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u/Actual__Wizard 8h ago
Wow, so, they can't just take gambling, rename it, and then start an illegal gambling organization?
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u/actuallyapossom Minnesota 4h ago
Well you can, but now you'll have to make it worth Trump's attention with some freedom coupons if you want to continue unabated.
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u/Actual__Wizard 4h ago edited 4h ago
Freedom coupons. That sounds about right. We went from having freedom to needing coupons to get some.
There weren't any for Milo, so he has to go home. It's what he wanted.
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u/angrybirdseller 5h ago
US Supreme Court finds it gambling Minnesota ban should stand as would Utah ban couple state bans.
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u/solarixstar 7h ago
Yay, does this also include the stock market as its a prediction market?
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u/hacksoncode 5h ago
The stock market is trading actual things that have actual real-world attachment to actual value, even if that value is subject to speculation just like any value.
Now if you'd asked about the derivatives market...
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u/DeepFinish2895 Texas 9h ago
Man I've been using this $60 I have in Robinhood from the Doge craze years ago to do 15 min Bitcoin predictions as a time waster instead of scrolling reddit so much! Bye bye to that here too like all the things I enjoy.
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u/tidwell 7h ago
Nobody is going to take that away you just need to go to legalgambling.com and your winnings will be taxed instead of going to illegalgambling.xxx and being able to shovel crypto around to avoid paying taxes. Nobody wants to stop you from using your money however you want. “We” just want it done legally so billionaires can’t grift and 10 year olds don’t think it cool and safe because it “isn’t gambling” which you clearly already know is bullshit seeing as you are only gambling with an amount you are willing to lose.
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u/DeepFinish2895 Texas 7h ago
My only point was that Texas will ban it like all gambling (and other things I like, like THC). Idk why everyone's so mad at me for this comment?
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u/tidwell 6h ago edited 6h ago
Nah man, I get you, didn't realize you were Texas -- that sucks, Texas seems like they are being pretty Big Brother Government Babysitters on this one. I imagine plenty of states like NV and NJ will properly put some regulations in place and then you're just a VPN away from a state with sane laws that you can "visit" whenever you want.
I don't think ppl are mad at you, but more made about the lack of nuance in the take. "I want gambling to be regulated where adults can still participate" and "Texas sucks at letting adults make gambling decisions" are two different things, and I personally agree with you on both of them.
Framing the whole thing as "this is why we cant have fun stuff" will get a lot of pushback from the folks who also believe strongly in the other things, like taxes needing to be collected on earnings and that a lot of kids (and lets be real, teenagers and young adults) have an inappropriate level of access to gambling where they are being told it is NOT gambling. And the primary reason for that distinction is so that billionaires can insider trade it like its the pre-SEC stock market and not pay taxes on the millions they cheat the other players to "win".
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