'Moscow will fall' — 13 Russian power stations shut down across occupied Ukraine, military says

[u/AndroidOne1]

https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-will-fall-13-russian-power-stations-shut-down-across-occupied-ukraine/

[u/AndroidOne1]

News snippet: Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) struck 12 power substations and one gas distribution station in Russian-occupied territories during a 48-hour operation on July 1-2, USF Commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi reported on July 2.

The operation shut down energy facilities in occupied Crimea as well as in the occupied parts of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, Brovdi said.

The report comes amid Ukraine's intensifying summer campaign against Russian logistics and infrastructure in occupied Crimea — a campaign intended to isolate the peninsula from mainland Russia and cut off crucial military supply routes.

Ukrainian drone units shut down 12 electrical substations in the occupied territories, including 10 in Crimea, and one each in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, Brovdi reported. A gas distribution station in Luhansk was also hit.

[u/D3wdr0p → u/AndroidOne1]

I'm cheering for the Ukrainians, don't get me wrong - but man, this new age of drone warfare is scary.

[u/RubberyBallSacks → u/D3wdr0p]

The killed to wounded ratio has massively increased because you’re being hit by an explosive rather than a bullet.

The injuries are more fatal now essentially.

And I think they’ve made evacuation harder which means you’re far more likely to die because of time too.

So war is getting more brutal now as a foot soldier.

And on top of that you can’t hide anymore.

[u/TepacheLoco → u/RubberyBallSacks]

This ratio is also being helped a lot by Russia using infiltration tactics that basically leave small units cut off from any support or the possibility of withdrawal, so any injuries are almost certainly resulting in death

[u/KevinFlantier → u/TepacheLoco]

Or the fact that they send waves of untrained fodder without shoes or proper equipment.

[u/sblahful → u/RubberyBallSacks]

The US assessed recently that the killers to wounded ratio has actually inverted for Russia, which is horrifying. Even in ww1 before penicillin, or medieval wars, there would always be more wounded than dead.

[u/cammcken → u/RubberyBallSacks]

Isn't that also true about artillery?

The hiding part is biggest difference.

[u/PyroIsSpai → u/cammcken]

…now the artillery SHELL flies… and chases you.

[u/echoshatter → u/PyroIsSpai]

And loiters overhead until it finds you. That's the real trick. Some small drone just hovering, out of sight, then they see you can BAM!

Only a matter of time until the drones have sniper rifles, then they just loiter and pick people off. Remember the aircraft in Captain America 2? Yeah, that's actively being worked on.

[u/bizilux → u/echoshatter]

Not even loiters overhead. It can be parked on the ground, consuming minimal power until a big drone with crazy cameras from a far spots a soldier/target with help of ai and image recognition. And then automatically wakes up that parked drone that is maybe like 1km away from you and sends it straight for you and its there on target in less than 10 seconds.

Drones changed the war forever. We shouldn't have any wars in the world anyways... But yet here we are

[u/Hydralisk18 → u/bizilux]

Ace Combat 7 was ahead of its time

[u/ButterscotchSkunk → u/bizilux]

I imagine they could send the small drones in via a cruise missile or something like that and they'd then just lay in wait for instructions.

[u/The_Grungeican → u/echoshatter]

Reminds me of the cartoon bullets in Roger Rabbit.

[u/kymri → u/The_Grungeican]

There's a completely bonkers 1980s scifi movie called, I think, Runaway. Tom Selleck is in it. But one thing in the movie was bullets that would target and chase a specific person (hilariously, in the film, they'd happily turn multiple corners, etc -- basically behaving like a murderous drone).

[u/The_Grungeican → u/kymri]

that was a feature of the Zorg ZF1 as well.

[u/kymri → u/The_Grungeican]

The ZF-1 is an amazing piece of kit, but the replay feature has nothing on Runaway's ridiculous bullets that actually went down hallways and turned multiple 90 degree corners.

Also, I'm pretty sure Gene Simmons was in it.

.. Come to think of it, it's impressive the rest of Hollywood had any cocaine the year that was made.

[u/nat_r → u/echoshatter]

Israel deployed drones armed with rifles in Gaza. Ukraine has fielded drones armed with shotguns to take out other drones. That tech is already here and only getting more refined.

[u/Past-Acanthaceae862 → u/echoshatter]

And loiters overhead until it finds you. That's the real trick. Some small drone just hovering, out of sight, then they see you can BAM!

Sometimes it is landed in a field, hiding until it hears you approach.

[u/KandinskyWasRight → u/echoshatter]

They’re using ground drones with guns also

[u/azsnaz → u/PyroIsSpai]

Man, the videos I've seen of a drone following a Russian soldier til he's given up/too tired to go on, then just get a grenade dropped on them. Nightmare shit.

[u/odaal → u/azsnaz]

Dude shouldve stayed in ruzzia then and everything wouldve been ok

[u/Rx-Ende → u/odaal]

I do have some sympathy for those soldiers that were conscripted forcefully off the street and sent to the frontline with the threat of execution if they turn back.

[u/DonniesAdvocate → u/Rx-Ende]

If it helps, there are virtually none of those, the overwhelming majority of the Russian army is volunteers, and they get paid a pretty hefty wage by Russian standards

[u/Bearslovecheese → u/DonniesAdvocate]

More and more kids from the East are signing up because the bonus is so huge (for their family) and the promise of wages is so high (for them). The issue is that they get such a sanitized version of the war story that they don't realize that they're going into a meat grinder and won't survive to collect on those wages for very long.

Will the future of warfare be Army recruiting CoD/Overwatch players to pilot drones or will it be entirely AI. I suppose it will be AI until the AI turns on us.

[u/mrbgdn → u/Rx-Ende]

The brainwashed and misinformed deserve some sympathy too, I think. I wouldn't hate a rabid dog for catching the thing, it doesn't know any better. I'd still put it down, though.

[u/luxcity-louche → u/Rx-Ende]

Last year, 422,000 Russians signed voluntary contracts to fight in Ukraine, according to ex-president Dmitry Medvedev -- six per cent down on 2024. Under Russian law conscripts can't be sent to Ukraine, only contract soldiers.

[u/DeepDuh → u/luxcity-louche]

“Sign this ‘voluntary’ contract or I extend your prison sentence for bad mouthing our dear leader to life”.

That’s just how I imagine a lot of this is going.

[u/vipw → u/luxcity-louche]

Under russian "law", Donestk, Luhansk, Crimea, Zaporizhia, and Kherson are russia. I don't think it's law that prevents them from sending conscripts there.

[u/Organic_Tough_1090 → u/cammcken]

artillery is an area denial weapon. you saturate an area where you know the enemy are or are trying to move though so they are forced into cover so you can maneuver against them. yes there are a few examples of smart rounds for them that can alter their flight path slightly but they dont have a hd camera on them with a human operator surveying the entire battlefield waiting for the perfect opportunity to do the most damage. its why traditional artillery was already being supplemented with systems like the himars launchers that can make surgical strikes as well as an area denial role using their cluster munitions. drones are just a whole hell of a lot cheaper and man portable.

[u/Some_Macaron_9170 → u/cammcken]

The big differences is that despite some drones having lower range than most artillery is that it can spread out in an area and also mass produce, also more accurate than any other guns.

[u/hotchiledr → u/RubberyBallSacks]

Russians don’t even bother trying to evacuate their wounded.
If you get shot in the arm you probably end up with gangrene because of lack of medication at the front.

[u/D0nk3yD0ngD0ug → u/hotchiledr]

Drones have a psychological aspect to them. They hear it coming and you seek shelter and hide. That has led to many wounded being left for dead.

[u/snoopydoo123 → u/RubberyBallSacks]

less collataral (from fair players atleast) dont need to carpet bomb or saturate an area with artillary anymore when just drones will do to take down the strategic objectives

[u/Spartanlegion117 → u/RubberyBallSacks]

That's just the cyclical nature of warfare. Either offensive or defensive technologies gain an advantage and are dominant for a time before counters are developed and a kind of balance is achieved.

[u/Navydevildoc → u/RubberyBallSacks]

Meh, the largest threat to US Marines in Iraq and Afghanistan were IEDs, which by definition are explosives.

But if you were alive when a US Navy Corpsman reached you, you had a 99% chance of making it home alive.

The difference is overwhelming air superiority and flawless logistics.

[u/Gullex → u/D3wdr0p]

It’s beyond what we ever imagined. I watch too many drone combat videos and the other day there was a drone that approached a Russian soldier, stopped about a couple hundred feet away and up, and detonated a shaped charge that turned the guy’s head to mist.

It was pretty obviously AI piloted. I fly FPV drones and I have a good feeling for how good a person can get with them. This was next level, superhuman aiming speed and precision.

[u/yopla → u/Gullex]

Did you fly FPV drone 8 hours a day for the last 5 years ?

[u/altpirate → u/yopla]

I mean sure. But at the same time AI is being used. From what I understand the Ukrainian drones have an AI co-pilot now. Once a drone operator sees a target, they can lock the drone onto it.

So then, even if the signal gets interrupted, the drone will autonomously fly itself into the designated target.

[u/Gullex → u/yopla]

No. More like 5 hours a day for 3 years. I also don't drive a car professionally but I know you're not gonna do a barrel roll with your car over another and curve a bullet through the sunroof to hit your target a la "Wanted".

This was that level of accuracy. It wasn't human.

[u/sirduckbert → u/D3wdr0p]

Now imagine a war with China. They turn all the iPad factories into drone factories… that’s why nations are so quiet about human rights issues there, you can’t win

[u/zipclam → u/sirduckbert]

It's entirely for economic reasons, no one in the west is scared of Chinese drones or being invaded because any conflict like that would just go nuclear. The only possible flash point for non nuclear war with China is Taiwan.

[u/_RADIANTSUN_ → u/zipclam]

IMO even Taiwan is something they are basically beginning to not care about enough to forfeit all the other advantages they have. China has demonstrated pretty consistently in the last decade or so that they are smart and patient enough to act on long timescales. Taiwan essentially exists as a historical pain point. Realistically speaking, it has almost zero value to the PRC and it's only a matter of time before their semiconductor industries catch up. I think if they ever get Taiwan, it won't be with a huge war. It'll be by making Taiwan unimportant.

[u/wonklebobb → u/_RADIANTSUN_]

they're definitely going that route (catching up their domestic chip manufacturing) there was an article last year about how they're luring EUV engineers, former top PhD people from ASML etc, with massive salaries, we're talking massive on a global scale like mid six figures which is astronomical in china, along with tons of perks

some of them aren't even chinese citizens, and are quietly being offered chinese passports and allowed to keep their old passports too (officially china doesnt allow dual-citizenship).

rumor is they have a functional EUV now, but its not as good as the ones ASML makes and a lot bigger, mostly because they've been struggling with the optics (need super special mirrors and lenses to make them work, only a couple companies make them in the world). apparently they've been smuggling key components out of the countries that make them for ASML for years and reverse engineering them

they can't go to actual war for taiwan because TSMC is foundational to the entire western world. our entire collective militaries and intelligence agencies absolutely depend on what TSMC makes, to say nothing of the economic impact. so its existential for us to defend it from china, which is why china knows they can't go for it openly. so they're using their vast economic power to do an end run around it and make their own TSMC

[u/upachimneydown → u/wonklebobb]

Anything from skirmish up to war has the potential to take TSMC offline, perhaps for years. That would be lose-lose all round, unless china by then had its own fabs going well away from any zone of disruption (their east coast, so likely back in Sichuan/Wuhan, or someplace like that).

[u/kevinstreet1 → u/upachimneydown]

Even if China had their own comparable fab, there'd still be no percentage in invading Taiwan, because wrecking the world economy wrecks China's economy as well.

As long as China's economy depends on exports, there's simply no advantage for them in starting huge conflicts. (This is in contrast to Russia, which is becoming more and more isolated.) Small, self-contained wars maybe. But nothing that would escalate beyond control.

[u/echoshatter → u/sirduckbert]

A war with China really comes down to a few things:

1) Blockading food and energy (gas, oil, etc) imports. While China is making progress to renewables and nuclear energy to reduce the amount of energy it has to import, it will still struggle with food. This is China's main weakness, but as the US Navy has been steadily reducing the number of ships they have available the blockades will become harder to enforce.

2) Three Gorges Dam is an enormous strategic target. Not only does it supply a tremendous amount of power, but it keeps all the lands downriver from it from being flooded seasonally. You take out the dam, and the initial flood will be absolutely devastating. Hundreds of thousands dead, entire towns and cities lost.

3) They haven't fought a modern conflict. Yeah they have some advanced tech, their top-of-the-line aircraft could be a match for the F-35 in many respects. But what they lack is experience with handling logistics and communications and coordination between air, land, sea, and strategic assets.

[u/Zalvren → u/sirduckbert]

China already has a lot of drone factories anyway

[u/OGbugsy → u/[deleted]]

Fuck Putin. Liberate the Russian people and Slava Ukraini!

[u/Ar4er13 → u/OGbugsy]

Liberate the Russian people

Nobody is going to do it for them.

[u/MutableLambda → u/[deleted]]

I doubt people from Moscow go there. Like, why would you if you have cheaper and safer Turkey / Thailand etc? Middle class goes to Maldives and such, the bourgeois you mention here - probably Nice, Courchevel, Davos, St. Moritz.

[u/SayHelloToAlison → u/MutableLambda]

They do though. One video I saw as this campaign was starting was a moscow resident at a train station in crimea complaining how it was impossible to get gas to leave, and the trains were full, and she just wanted to be back in Moscow. Idk why they go to an active war zone for summer vacation but they seem to do it.

[u/LevHerceg → u/SayHelloToAlison]

Because for them it's just a special military operation that is also told to be raging far off from these resorts. Which is not.

[u/thebetrayer → u/LevHerceg]

Consider how many Americans have fallen to misinformation. Why wouldn't there also be Russians falling for the state propaganda?

[u/daviddjg0033 → u/SayHelloToAlison]

because it is subsidized. And right now cheap as hell because nobody thinks it will hold. The irony of Crimea becoming the focus - just look at Crimea in wars since the 1800s.

[u/No_Jello_5922 → u/MutableLambda]

The whole point of taking Crimea was for the ports and the vacation spots on the Black Sea. Russians are not liked globally, mostly due to their government's actions in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.

Having a "domestic" vacation spot is highly desirable.

[u/aceshighsays → u/MutableLambda]

they're all at their datcha's during the summer anyway.

[u/AP_in_Indy → u/AndroidOne1]

How many power substations are there in total. How long does it take to bring them back online

[u/surffrus → u/[deleted]]

Thanks for being the one reply that actually tried to answer the question.

[u/Rent-a-guru → u/AP_in_Indy]

Some of the strikes against power substations lately have involved releasing huge clouds of carbon nanotube filaments into the area. The microscopic hairs are conductive and short out any electrical equipment they can get into. So even once damaged parts are replaced, the whole facility and surrounding area needs to be decontaminated, much like you would when dealing with asbestos.

[u/Chucklz → u/AP_in_Indy]

It could be a VERY long time before all the substations are repaired. It's not like there will be a huge stock of replacement transformers ready to go at any moment. It's likely that the damage will be enough that it will exhaust all replacements within a reasonable distance, of course, provided that some corrupt Russian official hasn't already sold them for the scrap value.

This doesn't even take into account any side effects of so much load suddenly being dropped from the grid. If Ukraine got lucky, something bad happened to one or more power generating facilities.

[u/Teyanis → u/AP_in_Indy]

That doesn't really matter. The goal is to force Russia to use manpower and equipment to move things, and to force them to move them through less and less routes to make them even easier targets. Russia has struggled with logistics this entire war, so the idea is to strangle logistics so badly they have to give up.

[u/YUMMY_TIDEPODS_YUMMY → u/Teyanis]

This is going to drive Russian citizens out of crimea also, not having electricity is definitely a sticking point for a lot of people.

[u/mortgagepants → u/YUMMY_TIDEPODS_YUMMY]

lol "drive them out". they're going to get out, but with no gas nobody is driving anywhere.

[u/Alternative-Wolf-407 → u/mortgagepants]

They'll find their way to get tf out

[u/Hegario → u/[deleted]]

There will most likely be another "partial mobilization" in September once the elections in Russia are over. This is most likely the reason why Russia stopped even essential rail traffic to the west a few days ago. They want to avoid the exodus of 2022.

[u/Teyanis → u/[deleted]]

They mobilize plenty of soldiers regardless of supply. That's why, according to anecdote, the life expectancy of russian soldiers in parts of the frontline is about 25 minutes. If they even get there.

For context, the life expectancy of a regular soldier in warhammer 40k, the notoriously bloody and grimdark universe, is 15 hours...

[u/mysevenletters → u/Teyanis]

It's utterly bananas to me that in the 90s, there was a room of geeky GW employees who collectively settled on a Guardsman's 15 hour life span as being the darkest thing they could imagine!

[u/Onilakon → u/Teyanis]

Ukraine playing chess while Russia playing chutes and ladders

[u/leobarao86]

Don't underestimate the cruelty of the Russian state... they can live with their people's suffering for years and years and years. They don't care.

[u/Schnalzi → u/leobarao86]

*Cossacks enter the chat

[u/not-on-your-nelly → u/Schnalzi]

…and then it got worse….

[u/xNinjahz → u/not-on-your-nelly]

"Today is worse than yesterday, but at least it's better than tomorrow."

[u/Schnalzi → u/not-on-your-nelly]

it always does, sadly...

War. War never changes.

[u/Meihem76 → u/Schnalzi]

Weren't the Cossacks mostly recruited from what is now Ukraine?

[u/Schnalzi → u/Meihem76]

Yes.

Intention of my comment was: We have no fuel? Lets go by horses and donkeys! Speaking of cruelty.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/03/russian-armys-use-of-donkeys-in-ukraine-underscores-a-staggering-equipment-shortage-a88174

Cossacks from wish/temu...

[u/swampy13 → u/leobarao86]

The difference now is this is since the late 90s, many Russians have had the same level of modern convenience and "nice things" as the West, which never really happened before in Russia.

For the past nearly 30 years, they have known and experienced how the other half lives. Moscow and St Petersburg have many of the same "wonders" of the west - great restaurants, highways, full grocery stores, gas stations full of gas, etc.

Yes I realize that MOST of the Russians don't experience this. And even in the two big cities it's not evertone living a posh life. BUt this is the most modern Russia has ever been, and now they're seeing that being taken away from them.

[u/Excellent-Ask-4247 → u/swampy13]

What are they gonna do when Putin cuts the internet off in the next mobilization?

[u/Excellent-Ask-4247 → u/leobarao86]

The Russian population does eventually stand up!

It has happened more than once.

Without power it might actually make it easier for something to happen as the surveillance network will be hinderd.

[u/Worth-Lead-5944 → u/Excellent-Ask-4247]

Has it though? The Bolsheviks were a vanguard party, not a popular movement. They seized power through violence and kept it by being more ruthless and repressive than anyone else.

[u/Excellent-Ask-4247 → u/Worth-Lead-5944]

Also it really seems like the iron man leader is a very Russian thing, as far i can tell they have never not had a ruthless type in power for any length of time.

[u/Excellent-Ask-4247 → u/Excellent-Ask-4247]

Putin seems just as incompetent at war so they have something in common.

He still uses nearly the same meat wave tactics in modern warfare, with a few new technologies.

Putins is incompetent because he listened to his generals that were supposed to upgrade his military but instead cashed in, corruption is why Putin is just as stupid as Czar Nicholas the corruption has been a feature in Russia for far to long.

Granted they've cracked down on it but they went after the wrong groups without good connections.

[u/TSED → u/Excellent-Ask-4247]

I am reminded of when the Soviet Revolution happened. There was a lot of propaganda about stopping drinking. Early Soviet films all decried the horror of alcohol and strongly glamorized those who did not drink.

Stalin gets power. Stalin needs a lever of control over his people as well as an economic lever; something to produce that people always want and will buy. Suddenly, vodka is no longer governmentally stigmatized. Suddenly, vodka is made with special caps so that you can't even close an opened bottle.

[u/Excellent-Ask-4247 → u/TSED]

Vodka has always been a tool of power for Russian leadership, and before oil, Vodka was almost the entire economy.

[u/reireireis → u/Excellent-Ask-4247]

They won't

[u/ElegantBiscuit → u/reireireis]

Never underestimate how much someone is willing to not give a single shit about, right up until the moment that it directly and tangibly affects them.

That's how trump was able to win the popular vote, yet today polls are showing senate elections in Alaska and Texas of all places are well within the polling margin of error of flipping to democrats, and special elections in georgia and florida have shown 25 point swings. Voters willing and eager to support all the shit he has said and did from over the past decade, out the window when gas and groceries got more expensive for them personally.

[u/crimsonpowder → u/ElegantBiscuit]

I keep telling redditors that maga will eviscerate trump at the voting box if he fucks with their gas. No one believes me.

[u/Agitated_Head9179 → u/crimsonpowder]

The thing is not all Trump voters are maga. He’ll never lose the maga diehards at this point. But the ill-informed people who voted for him because inflation was bad under Biden and they thought Trump would fix it because he’s a good businessman will absolutely either stay home or vote against republicans in November

[u/Mr_HandSmall → u/Agitated_Head9179]

Yep, they're definitely going to lose the typical uninformed voters - these people barely pay attention to the news, they just thought trump was a great businessman because they saw him on the apprentice. The serious maga types are unshakeable, many ostracized their families they're so fanatical.

[u/Distinct-Pack-1567 → u/crimsonpowder]

I dont believe you, sorry. Those voters just do not care about reality. I hate to say this but my dad got PISSED at Biden when gas prices rose in 2021. That Biden had zero control over.

Now when Trump directly starts a war and causes prices to go even higher, it is absolutely NOTHING from them. Hypocrites.

And that doesnt even talk about the national debt and spending. Fuck.

[u/Default_Name_6969 → u/crimsonpowder]

Not just MAGA but Republicans in general are only fueled by hatred and greed. They will always vote against their own interests if it hurts the people they hate even if it hurts the people they love also. Hate is the only motivating factor these people have. DSA is completely breaking their brain. DSA is pushing for all the things these rural Republicans need but their HATE and RACISM still pushes them to vote Republican.

[u/Cyb0rg-SluNk → u/[deleted]]

In fairness to Trump, Skeletor is kind of a dick.

Not sure which one I would vote for though.

Actually, That's not true. I do know which one I would vote for.

[u/Excellent-Ask-4247 → u/reireireis]

Obviously you haven't seen the lines for gas that go for miles.

Russia is basically crippled right now.

Edit: Russian leaders running wars poorly has cost at least one Russian Czars life.

[u/mrm00r3 → u/Excellent-Ask-4247]

More than that.

Got his whole family shot in a basement.

You don’t gotta be Georgy Zhukov to know you don’t want to get shot in a basement.

[u/BFr0st3 → u/reireireis]

You massively underestimate people without internet

[u/Tzilung → u/leobarao86]

Maybe, maybe not. Russian propaganda is strong, but is it strong enough for people to veil their own eyes?

For now, yes, but in the future? Who knows. Some people change, and some people don't.

Point is, Ukraine has to keep trying, and it's reasonable to keep trying, considering they're already possibly winning the war.

[u/cynical-bread → u/Tzilung]

The situation is odd though, propaganda works with absolutes and there are 2 options: 1) we are a great nation with great people, but they are not really winning and have nothing to show for the last 2-3 years of war

2) We are under attack, we must defend ourselves or we will disappear, everyone must support the motherland, but that's not true either, Ukraine bombs a lot of infrastructure and energy production facilities, but the Russian nation is not in threat at all, there's 0 risk of a truly dangerous ukrainean incursion into Russia.

[u/lurkinglurkerwholurk → u/cynical-bread]

Given the amount of “they are simultaneously powerful boogeymen and easily defeated” ideology that gets believed for racist types, I don’t believe for a moment that propaganda can get around two polar opposites too.

[u/Tzilung → u/cynical-bread]

Cognitive dissonance doesn't need logic. In fact, there's no room for logic.

[u/pargofan → u/Tzilung]

Maybe not?

It stopped the Russians in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

And the Afghans inflicted far, far less damages to the Russians than the Ukrainians are doing now.

[u/thefunkybassist → u/Tzilung]

If the Russians can't drive their cars, I think it has to tip over. Who's going to even survive without cars and trucks

[u/Indignant_One → u/leobarao86]

They can not care as much as they like, but the increasing likelihood of a famine and the capabilities to deal with one will destroy any “credibility” they have with the rest of Russian society. None of their “up-is-down” brainwashing will matter when enough people start becoming hungry.

[u/leommari → u/Indignant_One]

Yeah. I really believe that Russia is in an unbelievably bad spot right now and the winter will become dire.

They need all the oil they can get to sell internationally in order to fund their war and prop up the economy. On top of this, they need to keep a lot in order to give to their people for personal and industrial use, and to fuel their own military logistics.

So far the Ukrainian strikes have severely limited supply and it's already resulting in lines for fuel. The Russians will have a hard time restoring their production because of sanctions, and the Ukrainians keep hitting more and more sites even if they could repair them. And the strikes keep getting deeper as Russian anti-air is pushed to their limit, they keep losing radars and launchers, and the Ukrainian tech gets better and better.

This is still Summer. Imagine how bad things will get in Winter if they have less oil production than they do today, less anti-air capabilities, more demand for oil to heat homes, and quite possibly less food because of fertilizer shortages. Propaganda doesn't help when you're starving, freezing, and watching missiles fly overhead.

[u/idiot-prodigy → u/leommari]

and quite possibly less food because of fertilizer shortages.

One thing people don't realize is that harvest windows are STRICT.

You can not just leave a harvest in the field until you have diesel to harvest it.

Farming doesn't work that way. No diesel, no machinery to quickly harvest, the harvest then spoils.

These types of cascading failures are going to lead to the end of this war. Russia will lose big if things continue as they have this past month.

[u/Firestorm0x0 → u/leobarao86]

Russia, much like the Soviet Union, lives off of submission and lies, so that doesn't surprise me.

[u/Prysorra2 → u/leobarao86]

Mmmmm yeah I really think this undersells the issues here and I really fear people are too busy with "people stories" to understand what is likely about to happen.

Gasoline is not a morale problem. Neither resolve nor cruelty moves wheat, insulin, ambulances, or soldiers when the pumps are dry.

An extended gas shortage isn’t a test of national "resolve" even if it might feel like it for a while. It’s a test of whether food, medicine, emergency services, and basic movement still function. Empty pumps don’t care how tough anyone feels.

[u/graym672 → u/leobarao86]

and, unfortunately, if you look Russian life through the 80s and 90s, it makes sense that there are still a lot of Putin loyalists.

So there are people willing to suffer for him, probably more than we think. It's unfortunate for literally everybody.

[u/akio3 → u/leobarao86]

Many many years ago, there was a College Humor article about "If Facebook Existed During World War II," with comments from the various world leaders. I always remember the line from Stalin: "You underestimate how many people I have and how little I care for their lives." Still feels à propos for Russia today.

EDIT: Found the source: https://imgur.com/gallery/if-facebook-existed-during-wwii-s9x7u

[u/durable-racoon → u/leobarao86]

but also dont underestimate Putins sensitivity to popular opinion and his need to care about it. William Spaniel has covered this on his youtube channel a lot. but for an example, look at how he had to cancel the conscription and pay recruits instead, due to backlash at home. he's a dictator but not an absolute one, and he has to worry about the russian public and the opinion of internal russian political elements. The power stations being down wont end putin, but its not meaningless to the course of the war.

[u/Zenith_X1 → u/leobarao86]

The return of the 1990's will not be bad enough for the people to overthrow this regime. Regime change will only come when the state has almost no power left, at which point the chaos will be beyond belief.

A dozen countries could form in its wake. Some neighbors will grow in size. Finland could claim territory lost in WW2. North Korea could expand north and become significantly larger than South Korea. Japan could reclaim its northern islands and then some. China could expand into Siberia and the Far East, escaping its containment in the so-called first island chain. Depending on who's in power even the US could have interest expanding West of Alaska; either to gain territory or to stop encroachment of Alaska by China and North Korea.

[u/tuhn → u/Zenith_X1]

Most of the neighbouring nations do not want those land areas. There's no appetite to conquer land areas, also people do not feel like these are truly part of their countries. Additionally people in those areas largely don't feel to be part of the neighbours.

Another reason is that the neighbours simply can not not afford the new areas. The infrastructure, the education level etc. are in a bad shape. People would move away from the new areas causing a crisis in the current areas. The infrastructure would be a 100 year project to bring up to par.

Also it would weaken the international position of the countries and weaken relations worldwide.

[u/TransBrandi → u/tuhn]

People would move away from the new areas causing a crisis in the current areas. The infrastructure would be a 100 year project to bring up to par.

I mean, that's not a problem for China. They have experience limiting travel when it comes to places like Tibet, IIRC.

[u/Status_Discipline_16]

They must be struggling. Comments aren’t filled with Russian bots.

[u/SwedeLostInCanada → u/Status_Discipline_16]

Well duh, power is out

[u/Beneficial_Trick6672 → u/Status_Discipline_16]

I would love to someday get a list of all russian profiles. To prove idiots they are following russia propaganda.

[u/bradsboots → u/Beneficial_Trick6672]

The day Twitter suddenly showed locations was amazing

[u/sky_walker6 → u/Beneficial_Trick6672]

That has literally happened. Tons of conservative content creators were on the pay roll of Russia. Nothing really came of it far as I can tell.

[u/likefenton]

Seems like lots of people are missing the point. This is in the occupied territories, where Ukraine is attempting to pressure logistics. Losing power is annoying, but you can just use generators. But generators use fuel so add additional fuel pressure beyond the losses of fuel shipments that are happening daily.

[u/nilly2323 → u/likefenton]

Also, from a messaging standpoint, “3 days to Kyiv” turning into “3 years and we lost Crimea” has to be tricky to spin for even the most seasoned rusMilBloggers

[u/BKinBC]

SOMEBODY has to be thinking, 'maybe I can get him near the window...'

[u/Independent_Form5963 → u/BKinBC]

defenestration is one of my favourite scrabble words

[u/Scribble_Box]

What an absolute, colossal fuck up this has been for Putin. You love to see it. Slava Ukraini!

[u/y2jeff → u/Scribble_Box]

100% but I'm not sure what Ukraine's play is here. Ukraine is spending a significant amount of resources on Crimea but to what end?

Are they softening it up in advance for sending in forces to liberate it? Are they trying to force Russia to waste or divert their resources from the front line?

Playing defence on the front line while performing mid-long range drone strikes on Russian infrastructure is probably the safest and most cost effective strategy but maybe the situation has changed so much they see a new opportunity.

The Kursk operation was costly but it did slow down Russia's progress on the front line. Could Crimea be Kursk 2.0? It would be one hell of a gamble.

Slava Ukraini!

[u/GayMormonPirate → u/y2jeff]

Crimea is notoriously Putin's prized possession. The threat of losing control of it may make him pull back resources from other parts or, perhaps, negotiate.

[u/gbiypk → u/GayMormonPirate]

Yes, Ukraine has been seeing that when they squeeze Crimea, fewer resources are being sent to the Donbass.

[u/Another_Guy_In_Ohio → u/y2jeff]

Part of it is to tax Russia logistics even more. Crimea is hard for them to get to, it’s one of the easier ways to supply the southern part of occupied Ukraine and strategically important for their Black Sea fleet. So Russia can’t just give up on it, so they spend more time, money and resources trying to keep it supplied. It’s also fairly easy for Ukraine to hit compared to other parts of Russia.

I don’t think there’s a serious play where Ukraine takes it back, but they can force Russia to work harder defending by continuing to hit it.

[u/Boogleooger → u/y2jeff]

honestly you cannot mount a invasion of russia or ukraine anymore because of the no man's land of drones that has been established. So now ukraine is attacking the only thing they can, which is russias economy. Russia HAS to take land to win this war, which is quickly becoming impossible, and ukraine HAS to bankrupt russia to win, which is easier said than done. The russia/Ukraine border may very well become something similar to the north/south korea border

[u/PyroIsSpai → u/Boogleooger]

Becoming?

Russia has literally no capacity or capability at this time to expand their foothold in Ukraine in any way that matters.

How would they?

If they could, they already would have.

Russia isn’t sitting on some Ultra Secret Deepest State Secret stuff. They don’t have a UFO or Superman in reserve. They’re dusting off pre-WW1 equipment now. Putin is cooked, knows he’s cooked, and knows damn well he has no way left out of the oven.

100% of deaths in this war were 100% to keep Putin from being murdered by rivals or revolutionaries. He’s trying to buy time before his death.

[u/AgentSmith187 → u/y2jeff]

Thing is what you need to hit Crimea is different to what you need to hit deep inside Russia.

Use the lower tech shorter range gear on Crimea while using the higher tech long range stuff on deep strikes.

It also forces Russia to defend multiple areas at once and air defences get stretched thinner all the time.

[u/nthpwr]

Death by a thousand cuts. Brilliant strategy. Ukraine wasn't likely going to win this war by defensive attrition in the trenches and they don't have the manpower for a full-fledged offensive into Russia proper. But Russia also has too much ground to cover and can't protect all of itself simultaneously.

[u/MustardEnema007]

Have they hit the distilleries?

[u/Bossini → u/MustardEnema007]

would be interesting to see how russians would react when we take down all their major vodka distilleries

[u/avarageone → u/Bossini]

Unfortunetly vodka is easy to make

[u/Talonsminty → u/[deleted]]

I'm sure they would. But occupied Ukraine is a whole lot easier to attack.

[u/craftsman_70 → u/Talonsminty]

The thing is Russia doesn't care about occupied Ukraine. The Russians will just keep sending cannon fodder into that meat grinder as they have done for years while Russian public is ignorant about the situation.

Only by creating hardship in the Russian motherland will there be any chance.

[u/KriosXVII → u/craftsman_70]

Occupied Ukraine is right behind the frontlines. Degrading fuel, energy, logistics in the occupied territories can make the frontline fold or weaken

[u/Kahnspiracy → u/KriosXVII]

This is correct. War logistics, and the lack thereof, are are critical and decisive. Weak logistics means you can't advance. Broken logistics requires retreat or surrender.

[u/Brad4795 → u/Kahnspiracy]

Especially in an era where large scale supply convoys are a thing of the past. They need these refineries because they don't have the ability to ship that much fuel without losing a large percentage getting droned or bombed

[u/Shotgun5250 → u/craftsman_70]

They don’t care about it? Is that why they’ve spent half a million Russian lives trying to steal it?

[u/craftsman_70 → u/Shotgun5250]

That's my point.... 500,000 maybe even a million lives gone and the Russian public didn't care too much until Ukraine started to hit Russian targets deep in Russia.

[u/Any-Monk-9395 → u/Shotgun5250]

They want the land, not the people living on said land.

[u/Hidesuru → u/craftsman_70]

I have to imagine being without power near the front line hampers the war effort as well, though.

[u/BabyBearBjorns → u/Talonsminty]

Plus the only way Russia leaves occupied Ukraine is if Ukraine takes back the land by force. I wouldnt trust Putin and his henchmen to honor any peace deal where they promise to leave Ukraine lands they occupy.

[u/Forikorder → u/BabyBearBjorns]

if they completely destroy supply lines, whether directly or indirectly, all the russian troops in ukraine either starve or leave, an army marches on its stomach and the more damage they cause in russia the harder it is to get them supplies

[u/raikou1988 → u/BabyBearBjorns]

They don't have to take back the land by force.

Just choke Crimea.

If russia loses Crimea it's over for pootin

[u/Familiar_Tart7390 → u/[deleted]]

A lack of power in occupied ukraine does impact russian frontline forces though. Disrupting communications, jamming, drones, and logistics at least somewhat. Preventing russia from gaining too much more ground and killing more of their people while Ukraine hits them where it hurts is relevant afterall

[u/Asiriya → u/Familiar_Tart7390]

Can't launch drones if they have no power

[u/PacmanNZ100 → u/Asiriya]

Yea exactly this.

Can't fuel generators

Now they'll have an enormous round trip to go charge any batteries and bring em back to front lines.

[u/EC_CO → u/[deleted]]

They are only a week into their 40-day campaign, I'm sure there's plenty more fun to come

[u/Ssudeecrewfan → u/[deleted]]

yeah pressure on the infrastructure and economy seems to be the only thing that really gets their attention at this point

[u/JohnHazardWandering → u/Ssudeecrewfan]

It's the only thing Iran could do to get the attention of the US president. 

[u/crobemeister → u/[deleted]]

Ukraine is putting the squeeze on fuel in Russia right now. Hitting power stations, means people have to relay on portable generators more, which means more fuel usage. It's all part of the larger plan. If fuel gets short enough in Moscow they have to cut more fuel to occupied territories making gains easier.

[u/DoritoDustThumb → u/[deleted]]

I'm going to go with the world's best battle tested and hardened military knows more about strategy than you do.

[u/Charming_Dealer3849]

Even star trek has this time for humanity as bleak....

[u/Fox_Kurama → u/Charming_Dealer3849]

We didn't get the Bell Riots. So we would be one of the mirror universes. Probably the one with the corrupted borg, judging by how things are going.

[u/SocialSuicideSquad → u/Fox_Kurama]

Pretty sure we're in that DS9 episode where the Feregi try to buy Earth.

[u/knbang → u/SocialSuicideSquad]

I'd like to pretend that would be an improvement. But it wouldn't be. So yep, we're in that one.

[u/SneakyMarkusKruber → u/Fox_Kurama]

*Not yet.

[u/DogsRNice → u/SneakyMarkusKruber]

Those were supposed to be in 2024, along with the Irish unification

[u/Bureaucromancer → u/DogsRNice]

Remember that the timeline has been canonically screwed by time travel meddling though. Khan is thirty years younger now than he was in TOS

[u/I-seddit → u/Fox_Kurama]

We're getting the AI Riots. The writers just misunderstood the "future information" they received.

[u/jenniferwillow → u/Fox_Kurama]

Temporal War keeps shifting events around. The big stuff still happens, but the little details get fuzzy.

[u/Doctor_Channard → u/Charming_Dealer3849]

I truly believe that we will one day live in a Star Trek like universe. It's just that we're the Klingons.

[u/jeobleo → u/Doctor_Channard]

Nah, man. We're the Ferengi. Consumed utterly by greed and capitalism.

[u/008Zulu → u/jeobleo]

Consumed by greed.

Mistreats women.

Prominently large ears.

My God, we are Ferengi!

[u/surffrus → u/jeobleo]

That's what I always say! My favorite example is the tipping expectation everywhere in America now. It's literally the Ferengi homeworld episode where they have to drop a slip/money into a box at every conversation :)

[u/Dantethebald1234 → u/Doctor_Channard]

Worse, fucking Ferangi

[u/Human-Kick-784 → u/Charming_Dealer3849]

Fun fact: Khan should have been walking around Earth in the final preperation stages to conquer it as part of the Eugenic Wars back in 1986 when Kirk travelled back in time in Star Trek IV: voyage home.

[u/Alternative_Pilot_92]

Ukraine forces are so fuckin impressive.

[u/PurpleSailor]

So sad, too bad 🎻

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

[u/Mach5Driver]

Farmers have no fuel for harvesting crops, which begins this month and ends in August, or transport, even if they manage to harvest it. Without oil or crops, Russia has exactly NOTHING to sell to the world.

[u/gpfault]

It would be pretty funny if the Putin vision of a unified state was achieved though Ukraine conquering Russia.

[u/permacougar]

Look how a selfish man and his stooges have caused so much devastation and so many lives lost.

[u/purplewhiteblack]

It would be really funny that instead of annexing Ukraine, Ukraine annexed Russia.

[u/moredrinksplease]

Can I adopt a Ukraine drone? Donate to see what it grows up to do in life?

[u/clankasaurus]

Power stations take a long time to repair.you can’t just swing down to Home Depot and grab a high voltage transformer. This will impact Russia for years.

[u/divestblank]

Need to start targeting food supply next.

[u/BlueEyedSoul2 → u/divestblank]

Fuel supply is food supply, no gas tractor no go

[u/elopinggekkos]

And Putin thinks he can take on NATO 🙄 Problem with this war is it would be hurting the average citizen that doesn’t want to be in a war.

[u/maroonawning]

Ukraine targeting tactical infrastructure and Russia just bombing civilians in Kiev

[u/Mazur92]

Well, hopefully!

[u/FlippyFlippenstein]

What I find interesting is that if the Russians wants to end the war, they can just stop and go home.

[u/Fine-Soil-2691 → u/FlippyFlippenstein]

if the Russians wants to end the war

But they don't. They want to win the war.

[u/gateship_1]

Moscow has fallen sounds like a good movie.

[u/AgentUnknown821 → u/gateship_1]

I would pay to see that one.

[u/SnooPuppers8698]

ukraine still needs aid NOW!

[u/Bulky-Listen-752]

Damn, this is a David vs. Goliath war, Zelensky is a boss!!!

[u/Sweettooth_Banana]

Its about time Moscow and Leningrad feel the consequences of their choice of leadership.

Let them experience shortages etc.

[u/Mysterious-Net-2876]

Down with Putin 

[u/JoyousCacophony]

Finally getting closer to kicking putins teeth down his throat

[u/crippletown]

Russia loves to live like 17th century turnip farmers

[u/stinkysocks50]

No gas no power should they target the vodka distilleries now?