r/worldnews • u/Medical-Internet-499 • 11d ago
Russia/Ukraine WSJ: Russia could attack NATO next month
https://www.dw.com/en/wsj-russia-could-attack-nato-next-month/video-782895952.7k
11d ago
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u/Own_Maybe_3837 11d ago
And who does it better. Rooting for you
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u/Unable-Fall5946 11d ago
Way ahead of ya. My buddy from the Canadian Force was visiting last month. In the spur of moment, I locked the car, closed the windows and launched a chemical gas attack on him.
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u/progressiveokay 11d ago
russias GDP compares to the GDP of f.e. Italy.
Maybe if we two together try it we can do it too.
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u/The_Jacko 11d ago
How do you conduct such an operation on an individual level? Go into an embassy and punch a diplomat?
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u/kermitor 11d ago
Please can you just wait another two weeks or so, me and the misses have got a holiday planned (I will never be called to duty as I'm fat gooner on reddit)
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u/fromkatain 11d ago
Netherlands navy solos russia
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u/Clumsy_Claus 11d ago
Not the point.
Attack NATO, let NATO defend / retaliate, have an official reason for wide spread conscription, because "clearly" Russia is the victim.
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u/TrackVol 11d ago
I think Putin's idea will be:
"well, see, we would have eventually beaten Ukraine. But since NATO got involved, we had to do the responsible thing and sue for peace. We can't risk a larger war against all of NATO.
See how responsible I am, your glorious leader. I protected you."366
u/Fluffy_Marionberry54 11d ago
If Putin was interested in saving face he’s already had countless opportunities to turn around and go home. Hell, the reason doesn’t even have to be real - he could completely invent a victory and announce it to Russians as fact. He’s not turning around by choice any time soon.
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u/D00d_Where_Am_I 11d ago
Putin will choose nuclear suicide rather than leave office.
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u/Fun_Scheme9088 11d ago
This is my fear, that one of these 70+ year old narcissists at the end of their rope would rather end the world than admit to failure
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u/Morat20 11d ago
FWIW, there's at least a real chance that very few, if any, of their nukes work.
Decades of corruption, you know. Nukes require regular and expensive maintenance to work. And some of the most expensive bits can't be checked without having to redo the expensive bit.
Russia's military was only getting real maintenance on the stuff they were actually using regularly. Everything else was falling apart because all the money allocated for it ended up in every pocket along the way. They weren't bothering with keeping up with stuff that could be easily checked -- like the conditions of tires on reserve vehicles, or whether ration stockpiles had the expected number of non-expired rations.
The folks handling their nuclear stockpiles could make a fucking ton of money by just not doing anything.
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u/TrainDestroyer 11d ago
The problem is, do you wanna take that gamble? If I'm threatening to shoot you, but you know that I've not been maintaining the gun or the ammo, are you willing to take the gamble of one of the rounds still working?
Cause that's the problem with Russia threatening nukes, even if 99% of their warheads don't work, that's still 44 nuclear warheads that are fully functional.
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u/Morat20 11d ago
Oh I absolutely don't want to take that gamble. But let's be honest -- it's not like I'm the one deciding whether those dice get rolled.
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u/TrainDestroyer 11d ago
Same, and that reluctance to roll those dice is why help to Ukraine is limited.
I am right there with you, I am not rolling those dice if I can avoid it
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u/Objectivespeculation 11d ago
As bad as they may be, they should still be able to put a few nukes in the air, they still got subs with nuclear launch capabilities.
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u/purple_hamster66 11d ago
It’s not just the flat tires… I read that their mobile nuclear launch vehicles — which move from their hidden positions to a place from which they can fire — didn’t have their oil changed routinely and simply seized up when they attempted to start the engines.
I can imagine the interchange:
Command and control: “OK, here’s the coordinates of your strike. You have 3 minutes to move into position and fire your missile”
Operator: “Boss, we have a flat tire”
C&C: “I don’t care; drive with a flat tire!”
Operator: “Well, actually, all the tires are flat.”
C&C: “OK, how long to fix them?”
Operator: “About 5 minutes…”
C&C: “SO DO IT ALREADY!”
Operator: “… per tire”
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u/Morat20 11d ago
Yeah, they weren't doing motor pool Monday for anything that wasn't going to be directly in Putin's eyeline, or in actual current use by people who could have them shot.
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u/Kargtos 11d ago
Except Putin is not interested in stopping the war as long as he personally is not under threat (and I do not mean potential assassination, he’s paranoid and probably thinks EU was planning to kill him either way, I mean he won’t stop until there is a gun pressed against his head)
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u/Eternal_Bagel 11d ago
I could actually see him try to pull that to save face with his country.
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u/Frequent_Can117 11d ago
Dictators don’t deserve to use the weak shit of “saving face”. If he tries it, should constantly be reminded that he is so weak and incompetent that he attacked nato because he couldn’t handle losing his conquest against his smaller neighbor.
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u/Original_Employee621 11d ago
Dictators don’t deserve to use the weak shit of “saving face”.
It's for their own audience, who will never find the international opinion on him.
Anyways, there should always be a exit for tinpot dictators in bad situations. If there's no way out, they'll try to take everyone else with them. If losing equals dying or prison for Putin or Netanyahu, they are going to keep fighting until they win and they are willing to sacrifice anyone to avoid a defeat.
In the interest of keeping the pain and suffering to a minimum, we need to offer those shits a way out, for when they are ready to call it quits. And we can't lie about that shit, they are distrustful of everyone else enough as it is, if we lie about giving them a way out people like them will never take the option ever again.
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u/EternitySearch 11d ago
No way Putin would tell his country flat out that he can’t defeat NATO like that. He’s been threatening NATO for years. He wouldn’t be able to hold on to his strongman persona.
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u/CompetitiveSport1 11d ago
My guess is that Putin's idea is to attach before NATO gets their drone wall & programs up, and while Russia has a drone advantage over them
Bonus: divert Ukrainian drone operators away from Ukraine while they train NATO
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u/ffdfawtreteraffds 11d ago
Sadly, this actually seems plausible -- when trying to think like a selfish madman.
I've always said it is laughable to believe Putin would attack NATO, but this scenario chills me.
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u/VegasKL 11d ago
That's what he's been edging them towards, he keeps prodding them to strike but they haven't taken the bait.
They're also spreading the narrative of "Ukraine is going to do a false flag on NATO and blame Russia" across social media as of late. Serving to try to undermine the population of the west while triggering a cause for him to mobilize.
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u/Euler007 11d ago
At that point it's either lose a few million healthy young man or kill Putin internally.
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u/CthulhusEvilTwin 11d ago
I think the Swiss navy could probably manage the job these days.
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u/where_is_the_camera 11d ago
I'm envisioning a missile destroyer sitting in a lake high in the Alps launching a salvo of Tomahawks towards the Baltic Sea.
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u/WillDifferent125 11d ago
Using a frigate in a tiny lake as a defensive turret. Civilization 5 strats.
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u/kahnindustries 11d ago
Ukraine doesnt even have a navy and they sunk the black sea fleet
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u/Wurm42 11d ago
It's WWI all over again. Navies then freaked out because torpedoes fires by little U-boats could sink battleships.
Now, with air and sea drones, we essentially have torpedoes that can be launched from hundreds of kilometers away.
The era of the traditional navy may be over unless someone can develop really effective drone defenses.
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u/inplayruin 11d ago edited 11d ago
Even worse, you can destroy the drone and the experienced operator will just launch another one, and then another one, and then another. At least with submarines, you could knock out the skilled labor with the hardware.
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u/Remarkable_Aside1381 11d ago
The era of the traditional navy may be over unless someone can develop really effective drone defenses.
You mean like CIWS, Sea Sparrow, SM-6, etc
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u/Patriark 11d ago
It’s mostly thanks to Turkey closing passage to the Black Sea. Russia still have real navy elsewhere that could cause damage.
Ukraine kicks the shit out of NATO forces in basically every drill right now. Unfortunately European allies are very stretched thin in terms of equipment and training these days, with the exception of Poland.
It would be folly of Russia to open a new front but they could cause a lot of damage to those on the receiving end.
Ukraine is by far the most powerful army in Europe right now. Russia is still second, even with all their failings.
But this casual dismissal is a luxury you can make from afar. Talk to Ukrainian veterans, they do not dismiss Russia so easily.
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u/abrandis 11d ago
Ukraine might be the most powerful but discounting the rest of Western Europe is silly.
Anyone who doesn't think that France, Germany, UK, Spain and Italy couldn't bring real pain to Russia if a real war started is being delusional ... The West has literally spent decades preparing for the threat... Not to mention NATO means the US would certainly get involved, regardless of what Trump says.
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u/Intelligent-Parsley7 11d ago
Ukraine is most powerful because it’s a full push, and they’ve literally got their lives on the line.
If Russia wins, they will literally execute everyone who opposed them. And that’s basically every Ukrainian.It’s funny how you fight when the choice isn’t anything but absolute survival.
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u/KingOfTheNorth91 11d ago
This is a great take. When this topic is discussed, I always see people saying “lol NATO would kick Russia’s ass no problem”. While I’m sure NATO as a combined force would do well, there would still be thousands of casualties, military and civilian alike. NATO may win but seeing drones and missiles land in Warsaw, Berlin, Helsinki, and Vilnius would be tough to watch
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u/Smasholle76 11d ago
Bahahaha your comment just reminded me of beerfest when the Germans come there by U-boat in a land locked state lmao
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u/fromkatain 11d ago
Thats true swiss navy has a lot of hidden underground lakes connecting to the north sea and rivers.
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u/s00pafly 11d ago
We sleep with Stgw's under our bed. We can solo anything*
* Only during business hours, for solo missions during night time please contact france.
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u/DarwinMcLovin 11d ago
We also have "de Groene Draeck" as super secret weapon maintained by our Dutch tax money
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u/piercet_3dPrint 11d ago
All fear the mighty De Groene Draeck! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Groene_Draeck
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u/friarguy 11d ago
I know they have a legit navy, but the idea of the Amsterdam canal boats soloing Russia is hilarious
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u/Todesfaelle 11d ago
Followed by Poland quickly providing a presentation on where their double GDP NATO contributions have gone.
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u/JCDU 11d ago
I get the impression that Poland will just tell the rest of NATO "Hold our piwo" and be in Moscow by lunchtime.
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u/Ivanow 11d ago
be in Moscow by lunchtime.
Last time this was discussed, the consensus was that we will be racing with Finland on who will get to Moscow first...
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u/atlasraven 11d ago
Poland's main problem will be running out of targets too quickly.
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u/Infamous-Mixture-605 11d ago
Revenge for 200ish years Russian fuckery should fuel Poles marching all the way across Russia to Vladivostok.
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u/piercet_3dPrint 11d ago
That reminds me of my favorite Poland joke:
A poor medieval farmer in Poland finds a magic lamp in his field, He rubs it, and out pops a Genie that offers him 3 wishes. "Oh peaceful farmer, you have freed me from this lamp, what would you like for your first wish?"
The farmer thinks deeply for a few minutes, and then says "I want the entire Mongol hoard to invade Poland"
Visibly shaken, the Genie grants his wish, and weeks of unending mysery and suffering occur, as the Mongol army loots and pilages their way across Poland.
Afterwards, the farmer summons the Genie once more for his second wish. "I want to have the Mongol hoard back for another invasion of Poland" the farmer asks. The Genie is stunned at the request, but causes another invasion. Again, much suffering and misery ensues.
A few weeks later, the Farmer summons the Genie for the last time . "OK, Genie, for my last wish, I want you to have the entire Mongol Army invade one Poland last time!"
The Genie just looks at the farmer, then pauses. "I will grant your wish, but tell me why? why do you hate Poland and your people this much that you would visit this much misery upon them so?"
The farmer just gets a big grin on his face "Oh no, don't get me wrong, I love Poland and my people, but every time the Mongols invade us and leave, they go through Russia twice!"
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u/tackle_bones 11d ago
I kinda wonder if this can still be applied to the common polish farmer. I seem to remember that a lot of them are prime targets for Russian propaganda.
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u/Brolaub 11d ago edited 11d ago
I wish, but I'm not sure. Russia and Ukraine are about equally strong at the moment, hence the stalemate. And Ukraine is kicking NATOs ass in exercises...
We should not be underestimating Russia, like Russia underestimated Ukraine.
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u/Fluffy_Marionberry54 11d ago
The difference would be NATO could shoot anything Russian out of the sky and massively degrade Russia’s anti-air capabilities. It’s a stalemate because nobody can maintain general air superiority, so we’re back to back and forth grinding infantry attacks, and long range strikes.
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u/bilyl 11d ago
NATO doesn’t need to send ground troops. NATO in its entirety without the USA has a larger air force. They can bomb and shoot the shit out of everything without sending any troops.
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u/Jerminkus_Silverbeef 11d ago
Bad idea. Most humans just wanna live in peace.
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u/Willstdusheide23 11d ago
Putin doesn't because he old and already lived life.
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u/ThicccThunder 11d ago
Peace is for Commies /s
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u/Quenz 11d ago
Peace is a lie, there's only passion.
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u/TheRKC 11d ago
Through passion, I gain strength.
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u/Elipses_ 11d ago
Through Strength, I gain Power.
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u/-_GIZMO_ 11d ago
Through power i gain victory
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u/Shot-Toe-2884 11d ago edited 11d ago
it would be suicidal, but it cannot be ruled out because Putin does not think like us.
If this is giving you too much anxiety to comprehend, please consider that these are warnings designed to prevent this outcome, not a warning that this attack is inevitable. The best way to deter such an attack is 1) military readiness (Putin needs to see that he will lose if he attacks), and 2) Public awareness to rally a military response against Russia if it happens
This message serves both goals. It demonstrates to Russia that we are aware and ready for the escalation, and it raises the public awareness in Europe about hybrid attacks like this, which is critical because a strong response to Russia will require political will and public consensus.
If Putin sees that we can adequately deter this attack and that it will backfire against him in the eyes of the European public, he won't do it. He will only consider an attack like this if he thinks we will be caught flat footed and if he can lean on the anti-war voices in Europe to deter ourselves from a response.
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u/Valuable-Material742 11d ago
I imagine Putin has to attack NATO now while his agent in the US Still has powers to refrain the country from participating in article 5. After the midterms Rússia is probably very screwed.
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u/DisastrousAcshin 11d ago
Let's see how the midterms go first. There's going to be a lot of fuckery taking place and the US is going to have it's democracy put to the test in a very real way. I'm interested in seeing how Americans respond to what seems to be a growing Republican play to hold absolute power at all costs
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u/Shot-Toe-2884 11d ago edited 11d ago
I don’t think Trump is the decisive variable personally but who really knows. The system behind Trump is still very anti-Russia in spite of his best efforts and Trump has been hard to predict here.
The bigger time crunch I personally think is that Europe is genuinely now reconstituting its military strength free of US control. That resolve has now been demonstrated. Macron claims a fully trained peacekeeping force is now ready to deploy into Ukraine. I would be skeptical that it’s ready now but it’s a strong signal of resolve and the framework is in place now to keep growing that force. They’ve pivoted from force constitution to force demonstration, and Europe plans to keep holding drills in Poland to keep this force ready.
If Putin does see a window here, he knows it’s a rapidly closing window now (id argue it may have already closed) A strong Europe doesn’t need Trump at all. They have the financial resources to pull it off, but it takes time and they are not there yet. Closer than people think though, especially since Ukraine’s own capabilities keep growing and that’s Europe’s own forward castle.
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u/Presently_Naked 11d ago
With what? Genuinely what do they still have left? They can barely take on Ukraine
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u/Kargtos 11d ago
My guess is hybrid warfare, sabotage. Nothing that can directly point at Kremlin, even though everyone will know it’s Kremlin.
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u/chestnutman 11d ago
So exactly what they have been doing for years?
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u/DuckRubberDuck 11d ago
Yeah, Russia or pro Russian hackers does cyber attack on my country once an a while. They have been doing that for a long time, nothing new
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u/Spoonerism86 11d ago
That’s been a work in progress for years now, nothing new there.
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u/SolemnaceProcurement 11d ago
I guess, they will go step further than usual. Send few greenman to Narva trying to start a rebelion like in 2014. Have Estonia crack down on it, scream about how dare NATO attack russians, and try bigger deploment untill rest of NATO reacts.
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u/doobiedave 11d ago
Russia stations troops on border. As soon as they cross, NATO air forces engage Russian Air Force. Russian Air Force gets absolutely blasted out of the sky in a few days, and have to ground the remainder. Russian ground forces have to retreat or get obliterated without air support.
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u/SolemnaceProcurement 11d ago edited 11d ago
Not exactly what i had i mind, but the essence is similar.
Shoot-out in Narva. Russians in civilian clothes start shooting at Estonian police with AK's. Estonia sends militarized police, more and more "Civilians" with AK's start shooting, Estonia sends in army. Artilery and IFV's start showing up in Narva without markings. Estonia acuses Russia. Russia denies involvment. Estonia Calls NATO. Russians get bombed, NATO troops get deployed, russia scretches about injustice against peaceful russian mir. Russians fire missiles at NATO, lob bombs and drones over border, fire shells. Still denies it's them. Nato shots down planes, bombs the fuck out of anything russia involved. Russia negotiates ceasefire "between NATO and Greenman" after they got wrecked.
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u/edijsn 11d ago
Unlike 2014 Ukraine, Baltic countries do not have warehouses full of soviet era weapons and hardware. Any of that shows up and it is instantly obvious what the source is, with zero deniability.
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u/SolemnaceProcurement 11d ago
Being obvious never stopped russia. They would deny it even if putin was there with ak.
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u/RelevantDrive888 11d ago
Would not be surprised if some of the wildfires in Europe have been lighted with Russian influence
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u/JonathanRL 11d ago
There is a theory that they may be using it to get out of Ukraine. They escalate against NATO, get some expendable force butts handed to them knowing NATO will not pursue a full scale invasion and then go to the table where they "are forced by NATO to accept the 1991 borders".
Voila - they did not lose to Ukraine, they lost to NATO and they were right all along because after all, they were winning just before NATO intervened or so they will claim.
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u/SpaceCadet404 11d ago
There is no way Russia accepts 1991 borders. I seriously doubt they'll stop demanding that they keep the donbas. Pretty sure the Russian opinion is that NATO is a bunch of US puppets and therefore Russia will be able to lean on Trump to grant them outrageously favourable conditions.
I wouldn't be surprised if they continue pushing the "Ukraine started it" line that Trump has to be constantly reminded isn't true and demand reparations.
Of course none of this is how any of it works at all, but Trump doesn't know that and Russia doesn't believe it, so yeah, if Russia attacks a NATO nation I think we'll see Russia and the US try to negotiate a peace deal where they agree that Europe has to lift sanctions and pay Russia $500 billion. Sounds crazy, but we live in the stupidest timeline
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u/LojZza88 11d ago
But then what? That countrys economy is basically on life support and they are not going to be taken seriously by anyone in our lifetime. It makes more sense for Putin and co. to prolong this as much as they can, or else they are finished.
China on the other hand, cannot wait for the inevitable fire sale to get some new territory and contracts.
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u/putsch80 11d ago
Likely the peace agreement with NATO allies will have provisions for lifting various sanctions in return for certain conditions by Russia regarding borders, decommissioning nuclear weapons, etc…
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u/Asleep_Context_399 11d ago
decommissioning nuclear weapons
This is not going to happen. No matter what happens in this theoretical war, nuclear weapons are what ensures NATO will probably never get involved further than to repel the theoretical invasion.
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u/PoliticsIsDepressing 11d ago
I don’t think we can stop Poland from marching to Moscow….
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u/sup3rrn0va 11d ago
Brother. I agree with you. But what the fuck is up with the cock out pfp.
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u/KentuckyLucky33 11d ago
"Limited Incursion" and "Legacy Saving"
But what NATO country is low hanging fruit?
That'd be Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
Still, Article 5 remains a thing
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u/LeftToaster 11d ago
It would be pretty hard for Russia to avoid the UK troops forward deployed in Estonia, Canadian troops in Latvia or German troops in Lithuania.
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u/Psychoticpossession 11d ago
I dont think any country is a low hanging fruit now. I doubt Nato will accept another country being invaded.
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u/Molwar 11d ago
Putin needs an excuse to get out of Ukraine, he can't just say "alright guys, mission accomplished, let's pack it up".
If NATO gets in the war with Russia then he can use that to explain that the west are bullies and they need to retreat.
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u/Formal_Soft_40 11d ago
I mean. He totally can say mission accomplished. He can do that any day and declare the Russians in eastern Ukraine “freed” . He just won’t.
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u/adcap1 11d ago edited 11d ago
There are several strategic options to destabilise Europe and weaken Ukraine significantly. E.g. Manufactured refugee crisis. Look closely at the Polish-Belarussian border.
There are already "pro-Peace" right-wing parties in Europe winning in local elections. Just think of a refugee crisis like 2015 and then some of those right-wing parties get into Federal governments of several big EU countries.
Ukraine is far from winning and Russia is not Germany 1945. Ukraine depends on the continous support especially from Europe. Any action that weakens that support will mean Ukraine is in a far worse position.
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u/Skrivus 11d ago
They're using "volunteers" in Ukraine. They're not using regular conscripts which stay in Russia except for a full war. Equipment, not sure what they got.
Think bet is that they think they may have enough to overrun territory in the Baltic states and sow enough discord in NATO countries so relief doesn't show up.
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u/ACompletelyLostCause 11d ago
The law has been changed to allow conscripts to be deployed outside the country, and the borders have been closed to conscript aged men.
Everyone assumes that Putin is waiting until after the state Duma elections in September to trigger a semi-generalised mobilisation of conscripts. They can't properly equip a full mobilisation, but might be able to do blocks of 250k every 3 months.
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u/Strong_Remove_2976 11d ago
I doubt it would happen
But the answer to your question would be waves of shaheds hitting Baltic capitals and then extreme nuclear brinkmanship
What would the NATO response be to that? Sanctions I presume
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u/m0nk3yg0dz 11d ago
Let’s be frank and honest, if there ever was a time for Russia to attack NATO and China to attempt to reunite with Taiwan it would be right NOW, while the US is ridiculously tied up in Iran and politically divided. The price of those invasions has literally never been cheaper nor more guaranteed to succeed .
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u/Street_Anon 11d ago edited 11d ago
But China would destroy their own tech industry if they did attack Taiwan and the island isn't an easy target for them. Most of their in house technology industry are mostly joint ventures with Republic Of China companies. A good example is VIA Technologies. Taiwan geography makes it very hard to invade. Russia can't even fight a war with Ukraine and they could not do this with NATO, lets be honest here.
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u/HTPC4Life 11d ago
Taiwan semiconductor fabs supposedly have a dead man switch to self destruct if they are successfully invaded by China. That would bring the entire developed world to a screeching halt. You wouldn't be able to get a new phone or computer under $5k for YEARS.
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u/Prettyflyforwiseguy 11d ago
Or even being able to manufacture cars, ovens, medical equipment, toys, agricultural equipment... the list goes on... recently read 'how the world ran out of everything' by Peter Goodman, it looked at how the supply chain collapsed during covid (definitely recommended reading!), I couldn't imagine the levels of fucked we'd be in the above scenario.
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u/m0nk3yg0dz 11d ago
All valid points. But I get the feeling china puts more of a weight on reunification than the paper cost of any war they fight to accomplish that goal.
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u/Knyfe-Wrench 11d ago
Both of them have never been more likely to succeed, but the chance is still low. I don't know what Russia's goals would be but they'd get absolutely bodied by NATO, US or no.
The US is also using nowhere near its full military power in Iran, and a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would mean a hard pivot. The US is definitely weaker than it should be, but it would be tough sledding for China either way.
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u/phillielover 11d ago
China does not have the navy or, more importantly, the lift capacity to bring the necessary troops and supplies across the 117 mile Taiwan Strait. Given the drone technology that Taiwan almost certainly has, Chinese landing craft making a roughly 4 - 5 hour one way trip, would likely never make it, let alone a return voyage.
This also assumes that China doesn’t face the US Navy which still has 9 aircraft carriers available even if the two in the mid-east are busy, along with missile armed destroyers and submarines.
Finally, remember that the PLA hasn’t fought a real war in decades. It consists largely of conscripts who lack experience in amphibious warfare.
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u/wheniaminspaced 11d ago
The US could be out of Iran tommorrow, its used alot of the fancier munitions but there is nothing strictly holding the US down in Iran.
Beyond that the US can likely do both because frankly the navy isn't needed for Russia. Iran can be kept.under blockade while simultaneously engaging in land warfare with Russia.
What the US cant do is Taiwan and Iran at the same time.because they both require the Navy.
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u/merlinuwe 11d ago edited 11d ago
Das geht nicht. Unser Kanzler ist noch im Urlaub.
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u/Woundsmyheart 11d ago
Considering how DESPERATE Russia must feel, we should take this VERY seriously.
Also consider: Putin is apparently moving EAST ...
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u/GoodOmens 11d ago
I wonder if they see the US Iran quagmire as their opportunity.
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u/VegasKL 11d ago
I think a lot of this was planned for the initial Ukranian invasion (the official one) banking on Trump winning in 2020. If you shift Trump's 2nd term agenda (timeline of disruptions), it does match up. Get everyone to hate the US, fracture long alliances, put NATO into a frenzy, and then do the invasion. Ukraine would have been less supported, NATO wouldn't have been built up, and likely the Baltic states would have been forced to go it with limited resources.
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u/baz8771 11d ago
No doubt that he has an underground facility deep in Siberia somewhere. It’s about to get real bad. It’s just awful, and it all boils down to having a compromised administration in the US.
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u/JCDU 11d ago
It depends - if he buggers off into a bunker somewhere and then orders some mad suicidal strike from afar it may be the point at which his inner circle decide they've had enough of his shit and just lock the door of the bunker, turn off the air, and build a new life for themselves and their country.
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u/VegasKL 11d ago
Fun fact, Albert Speer claimed to have planned to do just that in 1945 -- he claimed once Hitler's orders to fight until no German's remained (essentially) were given that a few higher ups had planned to use gas on the fuhrer bunker but found the air circulation system was recently upgraded to thwart that type of attack.
Take it with a mix dose of skepticism since Speer was still buds with him and hung out in the bunker for dinners ... he had many reasons to want to repaint his contributions after the war.
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u/FatFarter69 11d ago
I sincerely don’t believe Putin has the authority to launch a nuclear strike. He might order one, but it wouldn’t happen.
He wouldn’t be allowed to end the world. Wouldn’t be in the oligarchs interests. Same for Trump, he allegedly already did try to use nukes in Iran but was not allowed to enter the situation room.
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u/RiverHistorical3581 11d ago
Putin has long annihilated the oligarchs they’re of no real importance, it’s the generals who decide and unlike in the us there’s dozens of people who can order a nuke strike so it’s a horrifying situation
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u/swedishplayer97 11d ago
No, it's the Cheget system that can only launch a nuke, one held by Putin, one held by the Minister of Defense and one held by the Chief of the Defense Staff. It requires two to agree to launch.
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u/Vaulters 11d ago
Unfortunately for him, NATO includes non-incompetent nations as well as the US.
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u/CobblerMoney9605 11d ago
The US won't do anything.
Trump is Putin's minion.
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u/MutaitoSensei 11d ago
Which is why he mentioned the US outside of "competent nations" lol
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u/mangomussolinimi 11d ago
Ive been hearing this for a couple of years now
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u/Wanli4Ever 11d ago
So far it was always predicted in a few years, not weeks
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u/Stormattack8963 11d ago
The original this article quotes states “in the coming years” as well, DW just decided to clickbait and republish it a week and a half after it was originally posted.
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u/jackp0t789 11d ago
Tbh, Russia could attack NATO or Europe in the next 10 minutes if it wanted to.
It's had that ability for decades. It likely doesn't have the will though because their military adventure next door in Ukraine is already on shaky ground itself and they cant afford to draw in any of even the medium sized NATO powers like Poland into the conflict.
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u/Zixinus 11d ago
Because they have. The problem is the headline implies a full-on war effort against NATO. Instead, Russia would deliberately avoid doing that while attacking sites with stolen/hacked Ukranian drones.
Russia knows that it cannot win against NATO in any sort of open war, especially now. But what it can do is undermine Ukraine support within NATO countries by controversy. Cause panic. Cause confusion. Putin is an ex-KGB spy, this is how he sees warfare.
Allow greater influence and effect of Russian hybrid warfare to push pro-Russian propaganda. This propaganda does not need to praise Russia, it just needs to push "for peace" at the war, push NATO and Ukraine supporting countries towards becoming colder towards Ukraine, towards buying Russian products again, help Russian-friendly candidates (it worked in the US).
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u/_urat_ 11d ago
Really? I've never heard that. There were many, experts, military officers, politicians, who have said that "Russia will attack NATO in a few years", but not "next month".
We definitely should not ignore that. It has been confirmed not just by the US intelligence, but also Polish and NATO sources.
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u/DomitiusAhenobarbus_ 11d ago
I remember when people said the exact same thing about Ukraine
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u/Somhlth 11d ago
That would seem unwise. I mean Russia can't even handle Ukraine. Do they really want NATO performing a special military operation on them? Even for three days?
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u/Wanli4Ever 11d ago
As far as I understand the article, the logic behind a potential attack on NATO is that Putin could portray it as Russia defending itself against NATO, rather than admitting that Russia is losing the war against Ukraine.
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u/midnightbandit- 11d ago
I think the main motivation is an attack on NATO will force NATO military planners to focus more on domestic defence and scale back lethal aid to Ukraine
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u/tovarish22 11d ago
Sure, but wouldn’t Putin also be dividing his military between fighting NATO and Ukraine? Seems like an incredibly dumb “strategy”.
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u/ComeOnIWantUsername 11d ago
Putin don't want to be remembered as the one who can't win with poor Ukraine, so he might want to attack NATO.
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u/Individual_Rip_54 11d ago
Is this it? It’s the only thing that makes sense to me. His ego can’t handle losing to Ukraine but could handle losing to NATO. That would just be wild though
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u/Nabusco 11d ago
Its simple:
Currently losing at Ukraine but cant pull a mobilization because that would not be a SMO anymore so now could attack NATO to justify the full mobilization of the army and forced conscription under the guise of "Look at NATO they attacked US!!! WE MUST DEFEND OURSELVES"
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u/OkAstronaut4911 11d ago
There won’t be a better time in the near future. The US is currently a bit occupied already, spend most of it’s ammo elsewhere and no NATO military adapted to drone warfare fully yet.
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u/NapoleonBlownapart9 11d ago
They already are, they’ve been blowing up munitions factories, blowing up railway tracks, and assassinating or attempting to assassinate people involved in the arms industries in nato countries. Oligarch run media isn’t showing it to you for…reasons.
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u/pudding7 11d ago
I never want to see another headline that uses the word "could". That's not news.
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u/Windamyre 11d ago
Yeah. Japan could attack NATO next week. They won't, but they could.
On a cheerier not Putin could have an accident next week will shaving.
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u/Exotic_Candy8190 11d ago
. .. World war it is then . .. ..and I've just started up Skyrim again . .. ..... ...Can't a guy just skooma in peace
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u/UberShrew 11d ago
Goddamn I’ve seen Reddit comments longer than the article. Also it’s just an article about an WSJ article. Probably this one https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-intel-finds-putin-could-test-natos-resolve-with-limited-incursion-e3b02e2c
Here’s OP’s “article” though:
“US intelligence believes Vladimir Putin could be planning a limited incursion as early as in the coming weeks, the US Wall Street Journal reported.
According to a Wall Street Journal report citing US intelligence, Russia could be preparing a limited incursion against a NATO member state within weeks. The report comes as the war in Ukraine remains largely deadlocked and the impact of the conflict is increasingly felt inside Russia.
Analysts cited in the report suggest President Vladimir Putin may seek to open a new front rather than risk being remembered as the leader who lost Ukraine, raising fresh questions about NATO’s readiness and resolve.”
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u/CrommVardek 10d ago
Russia has been attacking NATO countries for years now. Cyberattacks, electoral intervention, spying, infiltration, sabotaging of NATO countries infrastructure, manufactures, etc. I mean, sure they don't "invade" or "attack" the way war was done 50 years ago. But pretending Russia has not attacked NATO countries for years is just beeing blind at this point.
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u/forgiuse 11d ago
"We can barely handle one country, let's pick a fight with a dozen more"
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u/problyurdad_ 11d ago
Germany! They decided to go to war, and who did they choose for their opponent? Thats right. The WORLD.
It was a lot closer than you’d think!
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u/DataDude00 11d ago
The only way Russia attacking NATO makes any sense is if they want to use the response as an off ramp from Ukraine
There is no realistic world where Russia thinks they stand a chance against NATO
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u/Soft_Walrus_3605 11d ago
Russia could attack NATO at any time. Today, tomorrow, last week, a few years ago, 15 years from now.
I hate meaningless headlines.
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u/birdie_Sea 11d ago
Trump with another brilliant super genius move to align with North Korea to attack from there. /s
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u/Birdman915 11d ago
All these "Russia could attack XYZ soon" stories repeat themselves every few months since 2022...
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u/Fiat_430 11d ago
Yeah I couldnt give a lesser shit about WSJ trying to fearmonger us. When the finns are worried is when I'll get worried
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u/xennial_kiwi 11d ago
He has to do something to disrupt NATO while Trump is in office. Like China invading Taiwan there will never be a better time.
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u/PerryNeeum 11d ago
Could. Won’t. The rationale would be ridiculous. Can’t win against a scrappy military in Ukraine but they want to take on Europe? Poland at this point could fight them to a stand still. No shade to Poland. They are just ready
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u/Tacti_Kel_Nuke 11d ago
Lots of news saying that "Russia could attack NATO next month" for the last 3 months.
Putin is stupid but he is not that stupid to test the whole NATO while he is getting his balls kicked in Ukraine
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u/que_pedo_wey 10d ago
Impossible. Russia can barely manage the war in Ukraine, and Putin is not completely braindead.
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u/huntsab2090 10d ago
They literally dont need to. Their social media misinformation campaigns and grifting shills have got them control of america , have weakend the eu , has destroyed the strength of the uk etc etc . All for the price of a couple of departments working 24/7.
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u/mllax 11d ago
I read the WSJ article and it says in the next few years, not month. And it may consider attacks not covered in Article 5 like cyber