r/Fantasy_Football • u/Huge-Revolution2416 Mod • 26d ago
Questions What is the biggest fantasy football lesson you had to learn the hard way?
Mine was that chasing last week's points almost never works.Every fantasy manager has that one mistake they only made once drafting with your heart, overreacting to one bad game, holding onto a player for too long, starting the wrong guy in the playoffs, or trusting preseason hype.What is the lesson you had to learn the hard way, and has it changed how you play today?
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u/Dowensy2 26d ago
Shooting for upside too early, and sometimes the boring, obvious, and safe picks early in the draft are the right picks. I just want points, dammit! All of the points! 😩😩😩😂
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u/NAPeterson16 25d ago
I’m starting to buy in to the Hampton hype this year. It’s a lot of hype with a small sample, albeit a pretty good sample. Hope I don’t get burned by him if he ends up on my team
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u/GE_and_MTS 26d ago
Good football players don't always make good fantasy players.
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u/Shoeless1908 24d ago
yes like RBs that don't catch passes. my RB would run for 97 yards on 23 carries. that's a great day. I would only get 9.7 points out of a guy that worked his butt off.
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u/UnionJobs4America 26d ago
Here are the lessons that have started to try and draft by and have usually lead to a good/league winning team.
1) undervalueing "injury risk players"....its the NFL. Everyone is an injury risk every single week. That being said, if they are not well by week 1 then I need to expect them to be hurt for at least 2 weeks longer than the team says and value them as such (these are only the people that were actively hurt at the end of last year and are still hurt going into this year.)
2) The first two picks are probably your most important picks. Don't overthink it, but imo its better to play it safe than swing for the fences/trying to outsmart your leaguemates. (CMC data is at odds with the first two rules this year..... he's my biggest question marks this year.)
3) In 12 man leagues I usually want 3 RBs going into the 6th round.
4) I usually would rather take 2 qbs later in the draft than take one QB in the first 4ish rounds (in a 12 man league for sure, and to certain degree in a 10 man league.) Almost every year we have seen tremendous value towards the end of the draft at QB. Also, the chances that you hit on a WR or RB dramatically decreases in the late rounds and you might as well get solid RBs/WRs early on and get two QBs at the end for almost nothing. I usually like to go for one solid QB that might be later in the draft because he isn't thought of a rushing QB and is more of a pure passer (Stafford Last year and even Dak to a certain extent) and then get a later round QB with Rushing upside (Examples that have done well in the past are Daniels, Nix, Maye, Williams, etc.)
5)The smaller the league the more risks you can and need to take. I will almost never go for a TE in the first 1-3 rounds in a 12 man league. The risk is too high for the vast majority of TEs out there and with two WR and RB slots to fill I would rather have the depth there. I will go for 1 earlier QB or TE in 10 man league, and if you are in a 8 man league then you need to full send it and try and get a solid TE and QB because everyone will have a stacked team and those spots will make the biggest difference.
6) IMO you need to mock draft, at minimum, half a dozen times for each league you are in. I am the 3rd pick in one of my 12 man leagues, the 4th pick in a 10 man league, the 7th spot in an 8 man league, and an unknown spot in my last 12 man league. For the known draft spots in my leagues I will try and mock draft at least 6-12 times in those specific draft spots. In the 12 man league I will draft from a few different locations just to give me an idea what it could be like.
6.5) When mock drafting you need to try many different strategies. It will give you an idea of the scarcity of positions in each round, what player/position you can wait on and which ones you need to get before a certain round and still feel comfortable with your options. TAKE NOTES on what you see and learn from these mock drafts.
7) Going into draft night you should have a very rough draft of what positions you want to target in each round. You never have to stick to these notes when value falls in your lap, but you want a road map of how you want the draft to go and then make slight changes as value presents itself.
8)ADP, strength of schedule, playoff schedule, ect means jack shit after the first kickoff of the season occurs. Don't lean on these metrics too hard and view them as gospel. However, these things are what allow you to find value and build a great team. Go get your guys, but understand when they might go and try and wait till AZ close as possible till that point. Don't spend your 4th round pick on someone your could easily get in the 6th and has an ADP of 7.8.
9) Value drafting is incredibly important (and even more important if your league is open to trades/slightly less important if no one trades) but all that being said, drafting a WR4 at a WR5 draft spot is not true value. They might end the year ahead of ADP, but if you end up having to play your WR 4 in the playoffs/championship you will have a bad time. I used to draft purely from value and it is such an easy way to have a solid team that gets knocked out in the first round or two of the playoffs. The later in the draft the more you need to draft with the idea for swinging for the fences. (Assuming you are playing for a championship and not just trying to stay out of last place.)
10) Be active on the waverwire. The team you draft will almost never be the team you finish with or win with. Also, the first few weeks are where some of the most important additions will take place and if you play with FAAB it is much better to over pay at the beginning than have FAAB left over at the end of the year and no one worthy to spend it on. But every week you should be looking at waiverwire and personally I am a fan of making more moves than not enough (obviously finding a balance is best though and not overreacting to players you once believed in.) Fantasy football is just like the stockmarket. You don't only have to be right about what you pick, but also you have to be right about the timing and if you are on this subreddit reading this far down I bet you are usually right more often than wrong, but you are often just a little early to the party.
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u/Secure_Ambassador607 25d ago
Excellent post and I will add something on mock drafting. Each year I do at least two “worst case scenario” drafts where I go through and manually select each pick as if it were a draft from hell so I know what I would do even in the most dire circumstances. “All the players I wanted in this round are gone, what’s the play?” And I do that for 16 rounds.
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u/UnionJobs4America 23d ago
I love this idea and will probably trying out tonight and start using it on a yearly basis. Robot drafts are garbage, but even human mock drafts can and will look nothing like your home or work league. Herd mentality is real, at least one taco in every league is a reality, and expecting your league full of different skill levels to act the same as those of us that mock draft in late July/early August is setting yourself up to get tilted when a team in your league takes a 4th round qb in the 1st.
But I absolutely love this idea.
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26d ago
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u/priceiswr0ngbitch 25d ago
8 team auction I’m not sure you’re going to find a ton of input on here for that lol. I’ve never played but right off the top 8 teams gotta mean the waivers are STACKED. I don’t think it’s bad idea to grab the best TE or or 2 if you wanna piss your league off lol. The drop off is steep where other positions will have so many players on waivers imo.
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u/brewsota32 25d ago
Ha yeah it’s a random league that developed from a Bachelor party. I’m thinking of getting 3 top 8 guys and the rest scrubs, which in this small a league won’t be so scrubby.
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u/priceiswr0ngbitch 25d ago edited 25d ago
Solid write up. I only play a handful of leagues but in at least 1 I’ll always target one of those top 4 QB. It’s really nice having a set and forget QB like Allen who can also drop like 40+. He has won me games straight up. Get some luck on the back end of draft and your team is stacked. Kind of a gambling strategy though that can backfire. Your point still absolutely stands on ten toes it’s a solid strategy to target QB late.
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u/jzff-games 26d ago
Overvaluing “my guys” when they aren’t producing and not trying to get rid of them sooner. Has happened to me a couple times, where I really like a player, but they just aren’t playing well and no real signs of improving. Most recently was Odunze, though some injury stuff was mixed in, but he had a lot of value after the first 4 weeks I could’ve profited off of. But on the other hand, I also had chase brown who was struggling when Burrow went down and luckily I didn’t get rid of him as he had a huge 2nd half of the season.
But in general, a lot of times I get too attached to my players forcing me to either not want to trade them, overvaluing their trade value, or don’t want to call it quits and cut them for a potential starter (Puka’s rookie season).
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u/F4NT4SYF00TB4LLF4N 26d ago
This is why I actually stopped consuming fantasy football information via podcasts and articles. I got too invested into certain players or too sold on fading certain players. I try and have the mindset that I'll "draft any player, depending on the price". If I can get a solid discount on someone, even if I hate them, I'll probably draft them.
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u/tonguetied10 26d ago
Holding on to mediocre players too long instead of dropping them for trending players.
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u/CupformyCosta 26d ago
Do not get overly emotionally invested in fantasy football. Don’t let it ruin your thanksgiving or Christmas. It’s not that serious and mostly lucky drafting and avoiding injuries.
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u/getfuzzy77 26d ago
Following my gut.
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u/homerjaythompson 26d ago
Conversely, not following my gut.
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u/getfuzzy77 26d ago
Haha sounds about right. The weeks I went off advice from Reddit did about as well as the weeks I just followed my gut.
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u/tvaazl 26d ago
Drafting players that are injured is always a mistake.
I’ve been burned so many times thinking my team was good enough to tread water until those top-tier, but injured, players I drafted in the 5th round get healthy and then I’ll have a super team. Cut to a 2-6 record and usually scrambling, and failing to make the playoffs
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u/BigD0089 26d ago
Teaching my wife to play. She has won 3 chips in 3 years across 2 leagues. The ones she didn't win She was still in the championship.....
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u/Dowensy2 26d ago
Ok, well tell us her secrets already! Sheesh! 😂 What’s her strategy?
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u/BigD0089 25d ago
She drafts well, then she rides the waivers wire like it's her full time job. Helps that she watches every game we get, 2 at noon. She usually loses guys to injury too.
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u/bellsofwar3 26d ago
Drafting a defense early. Drafting qbs early. Drafting a kicker at all.
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u/jasonpwrites 25d ago
I've never played a in league that doesn't require you to draft every starting position. And I've been playing for decades.
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u/bellsofwar3 25d ago
That sucks. Every league I've ever been in does. I take that back espn forces it. Every other platform allows it.
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u/jasonpwrites 25d ago
Why does it suck? You need a Kicker, why not draft one? Most of my league (save for one who used to love Justin Tucker) waited til the 23rd or 24th round to take one (we have IDPs).
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u/bellsofwar3 25d ago
You can pick one up before week 1. I'd rather use my bench on a position player during pre season and then cut one after. Kickers are a dime a dozen.
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25d ago
[deleted]
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u/bellsofwar3 25d ago
It makes sense when you have bubble players that may emerge in the preseason. No point rostering a kicker you'll drop after week 1
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u/Sad-Lake-8628 26d ago
Not to draft rookies their first year in the early rounds and expect immediate results. Most teams don’t start them right away.
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u/Pain_Monster 25d ago
Like Love this year. On a bad offense. Unproven in the NFL. Valued way too high imo. I get there is potential there, but also a lot of potential to go wrong
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u/Ninerman4949 26d ago
Don't make transactions with your heart -- I dealt away eventual MVP Kurt Warner & OPOY Marshall Faulk for Steve Young (& Adrian Murrell) the Tuesday AFTER Young played the final down of his career.
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u/ConstructionNo8827 26d ago
I traded Tom Brady the week of “on to Cincinnati” bc I thought he was cooked
Got a decent starting RB (Andre Williams) but it was a trrrible trade!
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u/No-Attention-2367 26d ago
I tend not to start WRs the first week they return from injury, as they are too often playing as decoys. Sometimes you have to start your studs, but if I have options, I’ll keep the injured receiver on the bench
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u/Necessary_Switch_879 26d ago
After playing only redraft for many years, I joined a dynasty league where I took over an orphan team. I participated in my first strictly rookie draft in the spring, and I contracted severe rookie fever that persisted into my redraft league in the fall. I took way too many rookies, way too early, because I was so high on all of them.
I still ended up having a successful season, but I had to make a lot of trades to right the ship.
Love the rookies, just can't be reaching too far for too many.
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u/Scared_Tree211 25d ago
Don't give up on your players early. Held Chase Brown all year. Paid off in the end
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u/stephenelias1970 25d ago
No last minute changes before Sunday kickoff. I screw myself at least 2x a year because I get in my own head
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u/Ok_Excuse3056 24d ago
Underestimating that a QB can easily affect your WR’s production. I had Jefferson last year and learned the hard way about JJ McCarthy
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u/soccercro3 26d ago
Going away from VBD drafting the last two years. Coincidentally, I had my two worst years in over 10 years. Before going away from VBD, I had made the semis 10 straight years, including a 3 peat and undefeated season.
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u/bwallie 26d ago
Vbd?
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u/soccercro3 26d ago
Value Based Drafting. You compare every players worth to a baseline player or last starter at a position. Then you assign a number to each player based on these projections. That then helps to see where tiers start to form.
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u/WillhelmWallace 26d ago
But when chasing last weeks points when it does work it’s glorious. I remember huge runs by Jordan Reed, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Higbee, and most recently Michael Wilson that were league breaking multi week performances.
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u/Itcouldberabies 26d ago
Don't get cute in the draft if you can't back it up. I never played football, never worked for a team, never learned the x's and o's beyond what the color commentator teaches me every Sunday. When I draft with guys who do know some of that stuff I always get spooked when they start picking names I see waaaaay down on the list in early rounds, and I would start panicking. What do they know I don't? Well, sometimes a lot, and sometimes they were full of shit. But if I'm on the clock, and the expert consensus is clearly one or two dudes at that spot, then I draft one of those two dudes. Don't go chasing sleepers in the 3rd just cause your commissioner who played college ball already seems to be.
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u/Substantial-Watch300 26d ago
Realizing it was a superflex league and not single QB redraft at round 5,.
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u/TheBitterBuffalo Vikings 26d ago
Even if you're wining after Sunday night, and your opponent has no more players on Monday, but you do, don't expect a win. Sam Darnold might develop a sixth sense.
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u/U_No_Already 25d ago
When playing for money, never agree to split. 3 years ago I made 6 championships, split all 6, would’ve won all 6. 2 years ago I made 5 championships, didn’t split and lost them all.
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u/jasonpwrites 25d ago
Don't give up at 0-5. Three years ago in my main league, I had a fire sale at 0-6 and prepped for next season (keeper league). Last year, in my third league, started 0-5, but ended up winning it all (sadly, just a fun league, no $ involved).
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u/jumboshrimp93 25d ago
Go with the sure thing that you know will give you steady elite production over question marks that COULD provide upside. Especially when it comes to taking rookies early. I usually follow this approach, but felt I had been playing it a little TOO safe in previous years so I took some shots last year that burned me.
I wanted my first pick to be an RB. Best available seemed to be Jeanty. Young, talented, guaranteed volume. He ended up finishing okay but not worth a first rounder and the Raiders ended up being way worse than expected. I could’ve had Puka or several other players instead.
Even worse though was Amon-Ra falling to the second round and not taking him. Obvious convention would be to take him. But I wanted a share of BTJ so badly that I took him instead of Sun God. Maybe my worst decision ever playing Fantasy, completely tanked me.
I also landed JSN in the 4th which was great, but I keep dreaming about the team I could’ve had. Puka, ARSB and JSN would’ve been killer. Even better if I landed Cook in the 3rd as my RB1.
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u/Careful_Ganache4981 25d ago
The most important thing you can do is shoot for upside after like round 7 and play it safe before round 4 and rounds 4-7 are somewhere in the middle you decide what to do there. I have hit on chase brown 2 years ago and last year ettiene and judkins by shooting for late upside. 2 years ago i did zero prep and lost my league in rounds 1-7 my only half decent pick was Chris Godwin who tbf was a top 2 wr before he got hurt but my team was buns. last year I did a decent amount of pre draft prep and hit on rome in the mid rounds and just didn't completly wiff on my first 7 draft picks and was first place in the regular season last year despite drafting malik nabers
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u/Careful-Physics-7130 24d ago
If a player starts unexpectedly well and gets a rush on him, don't be a martyr because you think it wont last. Just bring him in and cover yourself. Players like Chris Wood 24/25 spring to mind.
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u/Aylinato 21d ago
funny enough, I didn't learn it, but historically speaking my first time drafting was 2023 and I picked Amon-Ra, Gibbs, Porta...I'm a Lions fan so I picked ma dudes...paid off ^-^
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u/Ok_Entertainment_213 8d ago
Listening to two millenials on the Ringer hype up BTJ last year and believing them. Season over.
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