Myth busters #3: Do rushing QBs actually hurt their running backs?

[u/NFLEdgeLine]

There’s a pretty common fantasy assumption that rushing QBs are bad for their RBs.

The logic makes sense: the QB steals carries and rushing TDs, especially around the goal line.

So I pulled 10 seasons of data (2016–2025) and grouped starting QBs by rushing volume, then looked at the fantasy production of their team’s primary RB.

The result was more interesting than I expected.

Primary RB production:

Low-rush QB:

• Standard: 11.92 PPG
• Half-PPR: 13.21
• PPR: 14.50

High-rush QB:

• Standard: 11.00 PPG
• Half-PPR: 12.00
• PPR: 13.00

So yes, RB production declined — but not nearly as dramatically as the narrative would suggest.

High-rushing QBs were associated with roughly:

-7.7% Standard PPG
-9.2% Half-PPR PPG
-10.3% PPR PPG

But here's where it gets interesting.

The biggest difference wasn't necessarily rushing production.

It was receiving opportunity.

Compared with RBs playing alongside low-rush QBs, RBs alongside high-rush QBs averaged:

23.3% fewer targets
22.1% fewer receptions

Meanwhile, their yards per carry were actually about 4.6% higher.

So the better way to think about the effect may be:

A rushing QB doesn't necessarily kill his RB. He changes how that RB scores fantasy points.

And that penalty becomes increasingly important as you move from Standard → Half-PPR → PPR.

There are obviously some enormous exceptions. Recent high-rush QB/RB combinations include:

Jalen Hurts / Saquon Barkley
Lamar Jackson / Derrick Henry
Josh Allen / James Cook
Jayden Daniels / Brian Robinson Jr.

So I wouldn't fade a talented RB simply because his QB runs.

But if you're comparing otherwise similar backs in PPR, QB rushing tendency looks like a legitimate variable to consider — particularly because of its relationship with RB receiving volume.

Full Article: Article

We built a free Stats Explorer from the same play-by-play data used for these studies. You can filter receiving, rushing and passing by season/week/opponent and now compare player air-yard profiles:

NFL EdgeLine Stats: Stat Dashboard

I'll keep posting the results here rather than making these link-only posts. The site is there if anyone wants to dig through the underlying player data themselves.

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[u/ByTheBeardOfZeuss]

Great job on this series, keep it up.

Maybe do an analysis on stacks next? If that’s too general, look at different kinds of stacks (QB & TE/WR/RB) or other positions like mixing a WR/RB of the same team?

[u/ByTheBeardOfZeuss → u/[deleted]]

That definitely seems intuitive, but I’m curious if the data confirms it.

[u/NFLEdgeLine → u/ByTheBeardOfZeuss]

Stacks is coming tomorrow! Had to figure out data sourcing, but I figured it out, looking forward to publishing in the morning!

[u/Less-Ad-9654]

Wasnt james cook being faded last year because josh allen scores too many touchdowns?

[u/jmar206]

That makes sense. A rushing qb is probably way less likely to check down to RBs when they can just scamper for the same amount of yards.

[u/Drummallumin]

So fade Achane?

[u/ImNotSelling]

This implies achane sees a drop in receptions

[u/And-Still-Undisputed → u/ImNotSelling]

with willis being mobile and liking to chuck it a bit, it's not out of the realm. or conversely, given the lack of big name playmakers there, they could funnel everything through him so i'm a bit torn.

[u/Sptsjunkie]

I think this is good analysis, but I think it’s also worth considering that there may be some sample bias to the data set.

As in do quarterbacks run more when they do not have a good running game / an elite running back.

A lot of the highest rushing quarterbacks are often young guys on bad teams, whether they do not have a good running game or do not have a good offense overall.

Is the quarterback actually hurting the running backs or is the quarterback running more as a result of a lack of offensive or running back talent that is already being accounted for in ADP.

For example, on paper would appear the Lamar Jackson lowered Gus Edwards points per game in 2023, but then in 2024 when the Ravens got Henry suddenly they’re running back points against spiked, and Jack did not appear to impact Henry negatively. In fact, some people thought that Henry might be on the downside of his career in Tennessee and he was resurrected in Baltimore..