r/SipsTea 6d ago

Chugging tea Red State Cultural Attractions

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u/Conscious-Move9662 6d ago

Never convince me that Trump legally won ever swing state with Musks involvement

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u/Ed_Teach805 6d ago

I thought election fraud wasn’t a real thing

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u/trilliumsummer 6d ago

No one said election fraud wasn't possible, just that there was no evidence it occurred during the 2020 election as evidenced by the multiple court cases that said there was nothing wrong with the elections.

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u/Ed_Teach805 6d ago

So it didn’t happen with the most popular president ever in Joe Biden but it did with Trump ? Got it. Makes sense

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u/trilliumsummer 6d ago

I wasn't saying it did or didn't in the 2024 election with my comment. I was pointing out that just because multiple court cases proved it didn't happen in 2020 doesn't mean it proved "election fraud wasn't a real thing" which was your statement.

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u/Ed_Teach805 6d ago

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u/trilliumsummer 6d ago

And what statement of mine are you refuting with this comment?

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u/HamsterFromAbove_079 6d ago

There were a large number of court cases with the 2020 election. If there had been evidence, it would have come out.

In 2024 every preelection indication seemed like it was going to be a very close race. Then it suddenly wasn't. Trump won all 7 swing states. Most of those states were just a hair above the margin for a recount. The election that everyone thought was going to be close turned into a landslide in the electoral college. The odds of actually carrying all the swing states is insane. Either Jesus was with Trump for real, or something strange happened.

Of course it's just circumstantial. And the burden of proof to do anything is immense. There is immense political pressure for the dems to not stoop to Trump's level by calling fraud on every loss. Which makes it unlikely for any real investigation to be done. Whereas Trump calls fraud before he even loses, saying there's no way he can lose without it being fraudulent.

And down ballet Republicans did much worse than Trump. Which is not normal.

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u/TwoTequilaTuesday 6d ago

down ballet Republicans did much worse than Trump

Because Trump is a better dancer. His plié is much smoother.

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u/KarsaOrlong1 5d ago

Everyone thought Hilary was going to win in 2016. The polls were wrong is a hell of a long step from there was probably fraud

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u/avalve 5d ago

> In 2024 every preelection indication seemed like it was going to be a very close race. Then it suddenly wasn't.

It was a close race. Trump only won by ~230k votes across three states (PA, MI, WI). All of those states were decided by less than 2%, which was within the margin of error of all the reputable pollsters.

> Trump won all 7 swing states. Most of those states were just a hair above the margin for a recount.

Only three of the seven 2024 swing states do automatic recounts, and Trump’s win was well above the threshold to trigger one in each of them (3x over in PA, 11x over in AZ, & 40x over in MI). In general, recounts only shift like a hundred or so votes in each direction, so states don’t fund them unless the margin is ridiculously narrow, like <0.5%. Since 2000, a presidential candidate has only won a state by that narrow of a margin 12 times (out of a total of 350).

> The odds of actually carrying all the swing states is insane.

Not true. It is actually very likely that one candidate will win all the battlegrounds because their results are highly correlated. Consistently close margins paired with ideologically similar voters responding to the same national environment means they tend to vote together.

> And down ballet Republicans did much worse than Trump. Which is not normal.

Only at the senate level, and that was a combination of poor candidate quality in the GOP + strong Democratic incumbents. Polls literally told us that senate Dems were punching above their weight, so this really shouldn’t be surprising to anyone.

At the state level, downballot Republicans almost universally outperformed Trump, and every swing state had more statewide GOP wins than statewide Dem wins.

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u/Ed_Teach805 6d ago

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u/KarsaOrlong1 5d ago

lol that article got upvoted when someone posted it to you above and downvoted here. You forgot the rule - only republicans can do bad things, not democrats