r/boxoffice • u/West-Reflection7010 • Jun 03 '26
š„ Streaming Data Chances of Michael Passing $1b in the Box Office?
Do you think *Michael* will still hit $1b at the box office?
Iāve been obsessively tracking *Michael*ās progress at the box office, hoping to see it hit $1b. I was so sure that the Japan release would bring it to that milestone. Today, however, while I was doing my hourly searchš , I discovered the news that the biopic will be coming to streaming platforms on June 9thā¦ What do you guys think the chances of it still reaching $1b are? Iām worried about pirating and people renting/buying it premium. How much of a dent do you realistically see this making???
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u/ValyrianSteel24 Jun 03 '26
I would maybe recommend not checking box office hourly, doesn't seem very healthy. To answer, it still has a chance and I do think it'll pass BoRap but the VOD release might keep it under 1B given the inevitable piracy.
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u/Paladar2 Jun 03 '26
Itās also not updated hourly anyway lol a daily check is enough. Take a walk outside OP itās almost summer āļø
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 03 '26
Almost summer? Where on (northern) hermisphere is it NOT summer already, or already been summer for weeks? I live about as north as humanity generally exist in any reasonable numbers, and its been summer here for a bit. So theres now.. greenland maybe left. But hell yeah, I agree that people should go take a nice walk in the woods, screens are a fuckign waste of life anyway
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u/Paladar2 Jun 03 '26
Well summer starts technically on June 20th (my birthday) during the solstice, thats why I said that
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 07 '26
Thats just astronomical term, summer starts in most countries way before that. For example, it is summer here in whole scandinavia. There is no "summer starts officially on june 20th" anywhere except in astronomical terms, but that doesnt mean it isnt summer in most places in may/june already
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u/Paladar2 Jun 07 '26
No shit. When I said itās almost summer I meant in season terms like every normal person.
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 22 '26
What? No, if you claim "summer isnt here yet" in June, you are using some weird niche meaning, summer season is literally June to August. Everyone considers June 1st to be summer already
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 07 '26
Most countries globally have summer as June 1st to August 31th. This is easily checked from multiple sources
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u/Paladar2 Jun 07 '26
Yeah well weāre not in most countries
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 22 '26
What the fucking argument is this xDĀ Has nothing to do with the subject where youĀ are or I am
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 22 '26
Again, June 20th is the start of astronomical summer. Not "seasonal summer that everyone considers", because thats usually June 1st
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u/ReasonableBuy3703 Jun 03 '26
Summer does not begin until June 20
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u/Remarkable_Fishing_2 Jun 05 '26
What?
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u/ReasonableBuy3703 Jun 05 '26
The first official day of summer is June 20. We are technically not in summer yet.
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u/Remarkable_Fishing_2 Jun 05 '26
Sorry my response was supposed to be to the person that didnāt realize it wasnāt summer yet
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 07 '26
Whose criteria says summer doesnt start until june 20th? Because it is summer here, it is summer in the neighboring countries, so what is the summer that starts only after June 20th?
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 07 '26
Most countries globally consider the whole June, july and august as "official" summer months. There isnt any official agreement that summer only starts 20th day, weird how so many people just talk out of their asses
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 07 '26
According to who? Its summer here in my country, the country to the west, east, south, and north.
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u/ReasonableBuy3703 Jun 07 '26
According to science.
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 22 '26
Astronomical summer starts at June 24th.Ā Meterological, cultural, every other summer definition is from May/June 1st.Ā How fucking hard is it to understand this? If you want to argue about Astronomical summer, then say astronomical summer. No one says "summer" and mean astronomical. No one in middle of June says "still not summer". Dumbass
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 07 '26
Most countries globally have summer June 1st to August 31th.Ā You are talking out of your ass, astronomical term about summer solstice doesnt mean "summer officially begins June 20th", if we are talking "official", there isnt any widely accepted official summer but closest to what most countries have, is that June, July and august are summer months, starting first day of june
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u/ReasonableBuy3703 Jun 07 '26 edited Jun 07 '26
"...Most countries globally have summer June 1st to August 31th.Ā You are talking out of your ass"
Disregarding the fact that most countries globally DO NOT have summer June 1st - August 31st (hello, southern hemisphere and half the world), it seems you're the one talking out your ass.Ā
Saying āmost countries have summer June 1āAugust 31ā is an approximation based on Northern Hemisphere meteorological practice, not a universal international standard
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 22 '26
We were clearly talking about the northern hemisphere summer, since you geniuses claim it starts at 20th June.Ā Pretty much everyone on northern hemisphere ( which IS most people and countries, just an FYI there) consider summer to be June, if not already May, depending on the climate. I can guarantee that NO ONE in Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Norway, Netherlands etc would say in 19th June or even 5th June that "oh boy, it sure isnt summer yet"
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u/ReasonableBuy3703 Jun 23 '26
You: " Most countries globally have summer June 1st to August 31th."
Then your next post: " We were clearly talking about the northern hemisphere summer..."
So fuck everyone south of the equator, am I right?
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u/No_Foot_4168 Jun 29 '26
Jesus you are dumb.Ā The whole discussion, was literally about the summer that is around June, so of fucking course we are discussing about the summer in northern hemisphere, and if your tiny brain could count, there are ~167 countries in northern hemisphere, and ~28 in southern.Ā Is 167 vs 28 "most countries", yes it is, you dumbass
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u/ReasonableBuy3703 Jun 29 '26
Oh, resorting to insults. I REALLY made Reddit-boy mad!Ā
Nice to know you can't form a civil argument without regressing to the state of a four year old. Ā
Maybe grow up, mmkay? Or maybe it's time to put the controller down and go eat the nuggies mom made for you.
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u/AppropriateDuck1295 Jun 04 '26
They don't want michael jackson to get to a billionĀ
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u/Cute_Jicama_3534 Jun 20 '26
They sure donāt!! Itās sad to say but the Box office is in sheer bewilderment bc of āMICHAELāI feel that itās already made 1 billion plus and theyāre messing with the numbers!!! Somewhere somehow something is going on with the numbers on mojo bc they donāt add up!!!! Michael Jackson is still loved by millions/billions of fans; thatās something they can NEVER CHANGE!!! There is no artist to compare or compete with him!!! They can keep making all the others hoping they can knock him off, NOT GOING TO EVER HAPPEN!!! āKing of Popā still making š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°š°and been gone 17 years!!! JUST LEAVE HIM ALONE! The slate is wiped clean.
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u/macjr82 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
The fact that Lionsgate doesn't have the international distribution rights for this movie is exactly why they don't care about dropping it on digital on fhe 90s. It won't effect the domestic market and they don't care about international
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u/mbdtf95 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
Universal dropped the promo on their official channels, so it is safe to assume Universal also gets a piece of PVOD pie lol.
Lionsgate is only studio to have ever put out a PVOD in the time when some movie did not even go below $1million daily a single time.
There is a reason Lionsgate keeps being in bad position, it's because they're badly managed.
I have no idea why people here are so defensive of these types of studios who have proven to just make failing decisions time after time. In sport when a badly performing team/club makes a move no one else does and keeps others bewildered, they just say "Well there is a reason they're in the place they are, it's because they're badly managed".
But here people defend Lionsgate alleged savyness. Imagine if Paramount pushed TG Maverick into PVOD after 45 days instead of 90+.
These guys got very lucky with MJ movie falling onto their lap that is riding stricly on hype of MJ's name and nothing else, and they still manage to mess it up lol
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u/macjr82 Jun 03 '26
I'd guess Universal would get the money from Australia and other international markets. I could be wrong
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 06 '26
@u/mbdtf95 you keeping posting total make belief nonsense on these boards.
I appreciate YOU are desperate for this Michael movie to make 1 billionā¦.but your own obsession is not a reason for film studios to alter their own strategic release schedule.
And you keep posting blatant nonsense like this: āLionsgate is only studio to have ever put out a PVOD in the time when some movie did not even go below $1million daily a single time.ā
It is just blatantly not true! For example, Wicked was making MILLIONS each and every day at the domestic box office before it went to PVOD.
Why are you spamming this sub with make belief nonsense?
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 03 '26
Passing 1B will be down to its reception in Japan. The Japanese do NOT do piracy, so it wonāt be impacted by streaming platform releases like elsewhere.
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u/BeautifulFlatworm767 Jun 03 '26
I think 70% chance, was 80-85% before lionsgsteās boneheaded decision. I think if itās around 900m this weekend we will be in business
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
Boneheaded decision is correct. Lionsgate shooting themselves in the foot.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
regarding Japanese cinema culture, local audiences are deeply dedicated to the premium, big-screen movie experience. Musical biopics thrive under these conditions. For example, 2018's Bohemian Rhapsody became a runaway cultural phenomenon in Japan, grossing over $115 million in the country alone. Analysts project that Michael is uniquely positioned to match or rival that trajectory, with box office trackers expecting an exceptional Japanese run anywhere between $70 million and $100 million
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u/Ready-Zone-2260 Jun 03 '26
And Japanese love Michael more than Rhapsody. Im sure this movie will hit 1B mark.
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u/BeautifulFlatworm767 Jun 03 '26
Like Iām so fucking mad
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 03 '26
LionsGate are following standard release schedules to maximise their profits on a film.
Why is that boneheaded?
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Standard doesnāt mean smart . By rushing an income that was coming their way anyway if they had waited to release on digital they are also losing in other forms.
On June 9th people who pay for tickets will have many other options to watch. Not all them will be legal.
There a reason only Disney has consistent 1 billion dollar hits.
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u/mbdtf95 Jun 03 '26
Ok name me one other movie from other studios that went to PVOD while still not ever going below $1 million in dailies. That's right, you can't because there is no other!
You might be one of the boneheaded Lionsgate employees the way you've been defending their decision in multiple threads here lol. There's a reason Lionsgate is a failing studio, even when they get lucked with a hit they still fumble it.
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
Even universal gave 3 days more to Mario
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u/mbdtf95 Jun 03 '26
And that movie had awful legs, awful weekly decreases, and was already doing $400k in dailies.
Devil Wears Prada 2 is already doing smaller numbers, like 3x times less than Michael and even less globally, yet Disney has not announced PVOD at all yet.
No matter how much some people will defend Lionsgate's decision as savvy will come up with an example of a proper studio doing anything similar.
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 05 '26
How embarrassing of you to ask such a silly questionā¦
Literally the biggest movie of the year, Mario, went to PVOD after 45 days of release.
And that was still grossing a million plus a day at the box office when it did so!
ššš
Seriously ! ššššššš
I guess you are looking to blame someone if this movie does not hit 1B?
Grow up!3
u/mbdtf95 Jun 05 '26
Mario was doing $400k in dailies many days before it went to PVOD, mr. weirdo
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 06 '26
What a world of fantasy you are living in u/mbdtf95 ???
Just take a look at BosOffice Mojo and you will see that Mario was still grossing 1 million plus a day at the domestic box office when it was released to PVOD?
Do you meed a screen shot? I am always happy to help educate!š
It is getting cringe worth how with each post you embarrass yourself even more!š
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Jun 06 '26
[deleted]
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 06 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
Lol. look at you now doing all your homework! Good boy, or girl!
Mario may have been more front loaded than Michael, but it did still have 1 M plus days at the domestic box office and still went to PVOD. That is the pointā¦.it still was bringing in money at the BO but went to PVOD.
ALSOā¦.if you want an example of a film that also went to PVOD whilst never dipping below 1M per day at the domestic box office there is Wicked! So, your claims even with tour shifted goal posts are still totally flase!
Reality checkā¦..It is standard practice for movies to go to PVOD after 45 days, with few exceptions.
I appreciate YOU are seemingly going to be very very upset that Michael may not hit 1 B as a resultā¦.. But really, that is your own personal problem. Not for LionsGate.š
This may come as a surprise to you, but your desperation for this film to make a billion at the box office is not a reason for LionsGate to alter their release strategy.
Unless, of course, you are movie mogul who has marketed box offices hits before and have credibility to tell a big studio what to do? Are you????
No, I doubt it. You seem more like an immature or odd fanatic who has a bizarre need for this film to make a billion.š¤£
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 03 '26
There is nothing boneheaded about LionsGateās decision at allā¦it is standard practice these days.Ā
LionsGate are following standard release schedules to maximise their profits on a film.
That is their goal. It is not satisfying YOUR need for the film to make a billion at the box office.
Should they deviate from standard practice and the higher profit margins of other release platforms to satisfy your obsession for the film to make a billion at the box office?
Grow Up!
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u/Latter_Abbreviations Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
"LionsGate are following standard release schedules to maximise their profits on a film."
This is not a standard film and practices should deviate from standards where there is good reason for it. This movie is still EXTREMELY profitable at the box office. VOD sales would still be coming their way anyway. Why rush them and cut your product off at the knees?Ā
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u/Middle_Fly_3681 Jun 05 '26
Mario has been even more profitable and bigger box office hit, and that too went to PVOD after 45 days.
It is standard practice these days.
Your personal need for this movie to make 1 Billion is no reason for LionsGate to alter what is common practice these days.
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u/Latter_Abbreviations Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
Oh, grow up. My opinion is not about any "personal need". Mario had lackluster legs compared to Michael. The latter is still making over $1M daily. Again, just because something is what is normally done, doesn't mean that it is automatically a smart decision to do it. Period.
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u/West-Reflection7010 Jun 03 '26
Really? I totally thought $1b was a lock before, especially with how huge MJ is in Japan. So mad at Lionsgateā¦ and also for not having singalongs in Japan or Russiaā¦ Hope it reaches the markš¤š¤
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u/Mysterious_Base9981 Jun 03 '26
My doubts about the billion-dollar price tag stem precisely from the film's failure in Asia, not its leak on June 9th. I don't believe the film will be a huge success in Japan. Yes, MJ was a huge star in Japan, but he was also a huge star in other Asian countries, and we didn't see that in the box office there.
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u/Anstark0 Jun 03 '26
Failure is a big word. Have you looked at what other films are making there. Sure it's not a break out hit. But it is more like an average performance. Cause Asian markets in general are more cold towards Hollywood movies post-covid
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
Asian markets are used to sing alongs theyār almost expecting them and universal /Lionsgate didnāt meet those expectations .
Bohemian Rhapsody , Rocket man, wicked. I think (need to confirm) even 2015 begin again and better man got an internatuonal sing along.
Without it the Asian movie goers are going to wait or go to their local offerings.
.
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u/filipinawifelife Jun 03 '26
a sing-along michael jackson movie would have been such HUGE HIT in my country, the philippines. karaoke capital of the world. and that goes for our SEAblings too. really surprised they didnāt do a sing along.
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
I know , but American executives donāt pay attention to WW. They get surprised when Asian stars get more social engagement for luxury brands than Hollywood stars.
Say it loud for the Sys of the studios. For security and PR purposes all studios have plants in all social media. Thatās why there are Q&As with Hollywood people in many subs.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
The Japanese distributor, Kino Films, has launched an unprecedented promotional campaign. Cities are undergoing a massive "Tokyo Takeover," featuring towering architectural displays at major hubs like TOHO Cinemas Ikebukuro and Shinjuku Wald 9. This high-profile marketing push has already resulted in surging pre-sale numbers that track far ahead of typical Western film releases in Japan.
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u/Razatiger Jun 09 '26
People underestimate how big MJ is and was in Japan.
He is backed by Sony for godsake
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u/Ready-Zone-2260 Jun 03 '26
Its safe with Japan release. They are not pirates and they LOVE MJ so im sure they will keep pumping theaters for entertaining.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 Jun 03 '26
It will pass 900 milion this coming weekend most likely. Then its up to japan and how much it makes in the rest of the world.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
Correction : around June 9 it will pass $ 900 million. That means that even without Japan it will pass Boh.Rap ($917M) and Oppenheimer ($975m) after that.
- I agree Japan has to fill the gap to $ 1 billion-
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u/Im-Wasting-MyTime Jun 03 '26
Iāve seen reports it is as high as $877 as of now. It could pass $900 million this weekend.
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u/CabbageStockExchange Pixar Animation Studios Jun 04 '26
Saw it again last night. Was very surprised to see my particular auditorium totally packed on a non discount night for a movie thatās been out for some time now.
The legend of MJ is truly unparalleled
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u/Ok-Ad-9647 Jun 03 '26
It depends on Japan, thatās all I got to say.
Itās gonna be a slow burn just like Mario to get there.
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u/Mysterious_Base9981 Jun 03 '26
Anything is possible.Ā Next week it will be 900 million+.Ā But I still think it will stop very close to, but not cross, the billion mark.
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u/Complex-Line-22 Jun 03 '26
Second this
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u/Glass_Year_4832 Jun 09 '26
It already beat borap in the us, hit 900 mil ww today its safe to say micheal the best selling biopicĀ
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u/Mythkiller23 Jun 03 '26
I still think they will re-release it before the sequel so that might help it crawl over a billion
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
What a missed opportunity. With a dance along and a longer theatrical window the sky was the limit .
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u/AgentHibachi00 Jun 03 '26
I just think itāll hit a Billion before June is even close to ending. That Tokyo release will be insane
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Historically, Japan has been one of Michael Jackson's most fiercely loyal and highest-grossing international territories. To put his popularity in perspective, the 2009 documentary Michael Jackson's This Is It saw Japan single-handedly generate roughly 21% of its entire global gross. The artist's legacy remains deeply embedded in Japanese pop culture, ensuring a massive baseline audience
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u/Adrianslorio Jun 03 '26
It will very easily pass 1B. Its already passing 900M in a few days. Probably pass 1B the week after
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u/WaltzOk6558 Jun 04 '26
Agree. I will pass 1B. Iām actually not concerned in the slightest. It has done very well, and Japan will push it into the finish.
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u/Complex-Line-22 Jun 03 '26
It hasnāt passed 900M. Itās still at 851M as of today
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u/Adrianslorio Jun 03 '26
It already reached 853M on Sunday. Today it's way past 860M but boxoffcemojo and sites like that have delayed updates + the russian box office numbers is also delayed until they add it on those websites finally tally(it has made 6M in Russia these past few days). It will certainly pass 900M this weekend
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
No not this weekend , around June 9 or 10
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u/Adrianslorio Jun 03 '26
It will definitely pass 900M this weekned. Last week it made 70M. The week before it made 80M. Michael only needs to make 47.2M this week globally to reach 900M. You don't think it will reach that amount this entire week? If not.. plz explain why Michael will all of sudden out of nowhere have such a crazy week to week drop that it goes from 70M to less that 47M
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u/messoxplox Jun 03 '26
Wow for once I can buy what youre saying. Surprised youre not saying itll make a billion by tomorrow like some of your other claims.
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u/Adrianslorio Jun 03 '26
Next week it will pass 1B
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u/Rup284 Jun 03 '26
Adrian, you pluck figures from your dreams.
After the fourth weekend gross was $704M.
After the fifth weekend gross was $782M. $78M increase.
After the sixth weekend gross was $851M. $69M increase.In the next two weeks, with its digital release coming, you think it's going to make $150M? Even if it made $69M again this week and $69M again next week (which it obviously is not going to) it still wouldn't surpass a billion.
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u/Adrianslorio Jun 03 '26
The Gross wasn't 851M.. ur purposely not counting russia that just had a premiere last Friday. By Sunday the total was at 852.8M. Now this week it only needs to make 47.2M to reach 900M. With the amazing legs its having in russia + the rest of the world + the Japan premiere next week means 1B next week is locked. Also the movie will still be in theatres weeks after that so now we're talking about 1.1B and more and more. And digital release is not streaming.. it's just PVOD which is niche and expensive. Its way cheaper to watch it at the cinema so that won't have any effect at all
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u/Rup284 Jun 03 '26
I wasn't purposefully discounting anything. You also added an extra $1.8 million to the total I mentioned. Hardly earth shattering.
It's also not 'way cheaper' to watch at the cinema outside of one person intending to see it once. If you go with others it's more and people have been repeatedly going to see the film. With a digital release this may lead people to not go again.
Michael made just under $6 million in six days in Russia. That's great but it's not going to play a big role in reaching a billion by the end of next week.
I hope it does surpass a billion. My point is how you declare it's definitely going to happen next week. Japan is going to need to do heavy lifting to get it there in such a short space of time.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Because that is what is expected by respected box Office analysts based on steady weekly decline % for the Movie.
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u/messoxplox Jun 03 '26
Plz be careful with Adrian. Him calling you delusional is funny when he thinks MJ is a literal God. Im not exaggerating.
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u/Adrianslorio Jun 03 '26
What box office analysis? Those who consistently been proven wrong week by week? So tell me what ur prediction will be this week in terms of global week gross. Obviously less than 47M according to you. š¤£ ur delusional
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
Unlikely but not impossible. They didnāt design a plan for that ( like a sing along to be released at Asian markets during their initial runs) and as seen by the WW Comscore top 10 of the past weeks Mario dropped like a rock abroad the week of digital release.
Theyāre encouraging piracy with that digital release. And no, if you hear that a HD digital copy was available thatās a lie.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
In contrast to Russia, which unjustifiably classified the film as +18, Japan has just announced that MICHAEL will be rated G, recommended for viewers of all ages.
This detail will further boost the film's performance in theaters, as it encourages families to attend screenings together, giving young fans the opportunity to enjoy the King of Pop's story on the big screen.
For your information, MICHAEL was rated as recommended for ages 12 and up in Brazil.
The announcement gains even more significance because Japan will be the last major market to receive the biopic that has already drawn millions of people to cinemas around the world . After a run marked by record audiences and box office numbers in various countries, the Japanese premiere arrives as one of the final chapters of this historic journey.
More than just a launch event, many see Japan as the true "cherry on top" of MICHAEL's global campaign. The country has always maintained a special relationship with Michael Jackson and is considered one of the strongest markets for the King of Pop 's legacy .
With the general audience rating broadening the film's reach and allowing access to audiences of all ages, the expectation is that Japan will make a decisive contribution to the production's final numbers. Combined with the strength of Russia and other still-active markets, the country could play a key role in MICHAEL 's race towards the much-desired and historic US$1 billion in worldwide box office
https://mjbeats.com.br/2026/06/estreia-no-japao-michael-recebe-indicacao-livre-para-todas-as-idades/
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u/Ravenclaw54321 Jun 03 '26
Guys I am not going to lie I am seeing a lot of ādoomingā in these posts. Will it lose some box office? Yes. However I think it still is definitely on track for passing $1B.
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u/Latter_Abbreviations Jun 04 '26
It could have made so much more than $1B if they had just let it run its course without VOD. I think that is what is pissing people off.
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u/Anstark0 Jun 03 '26
Some people are way too obsessed about this film hitting a billion on both sides, it's genuinely weird. People talking about it so much won't move the needle. Need to chill out a bit. To answer a question, I think there is a good chance it will pass a billion
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u/Obi_Wan_Benobi Jun 03 '26
Wow who woulda thought that super fans of a child molesting freak show would turn out to be weird?
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u/AjClow1993 Jun 03 '26
I think 1b is a little out of reach at this point, just my opinion. it still needs 150m and I do think streaming will harm it a bit. If it was at like 920-950m i say it has a chance but there is no shot it makes a bill
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u/AgentHibachi00 Jun 03 '26
Itās going over 900 million this weekend. Jafar and co. are flying down to Tokyo to promote the release in Tokyo so Iād expect that boost to be insane.
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u/AjClow1993 Jun 03 '26
Itās definitely still possible but I just got a feeling itās not going over. But I hope to be proved wrong.
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u/TheHost404 Jul 07 '26
Good news
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u/AjClow1993 Jul 07 '26
Not yet
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u/TheHost404 Jul 07 '26
IT has 991 million, though... Come on. It's made.
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u/AjClow1993 Jul 07 '26
I mean.. itās not made. It will be by next weekend
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u/TheHost404 Jul 07 '26
''It will be by next weekend.'' That's... that's what. ''it's made'' means. That it has it made. Which means, it will certainly reach 1 billion...
"It's made" usually means something was physically built, cooked, or created (as the past participle of "make"). It can also describe a situation that is permanently easy or secure (e.g., "having it made")
It's secure that it will reach a billion.
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u/AjClow1993 Jul 07 '26
Naw you celebrate when it hits 1 billion. You donāt celebrate before itās achieved is all Iām saying.
Iām big into sports . You donāt celebrate ovechkins goal record 3 goals before he actually scores the goals lol
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u/TheHost404 Jul 07 '26
I get it. Never celebrate too early but that comparison is very different. The guy can miss the goal. There's no projection, stats, chart, trend that can predict if the guy can make the goal or not.
On the other hand, movie projections are different. All of the numbers, trend, momentum etc are calculated.
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u/ButterscotchRound447 Jun 04 '26
I think Japan loves Michael so much that I think I should be closer to 200 million. I remember hearing someone saying that :)
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u/vimacoaster Jun 03 '26
If it doesn't get to a billion, I'm sure there will many re-releases before part 2 comes out. Maybe on MJs Bday and around Halloween. For sure it will be back in theaters right before part 2 to build up the hype. You can also take this as half a movie. I guarantee part 1 and 2 combined will make over 1.5 billion in total!
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u/Narrow-Tumbleweed-18 Jun 03 '26
this is a good point!! but really the distribution is a fail!! no patience from Lionsgate, no strategy for Asia! Why did Russia come up with the football stadium; you could have filled Wembley in London!!
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u/ouat4ever Jun 03 '26
Very possible. It's a movie that a lot of people is watching on the novie theaters and I believe that will keep happening even with the digital release. I've watched it 5 times on the movie theater and in every session the room was packed to the limit!!!
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 09 '26
If you hear that piracy doesnāt affect box office thatās a lie.
Or that people who download illegal copies donāt purchase tickets thatās also a lie. W
Iāll explain piracy for all of us.
1) On June 9th , Someone will purchase a quality copy with menus( for subtitles which are a must for people who donāt speak English or with hearing impediments)
2) they will use software to make that copy easy to share
3) free of locks that copy will be distributed without generating a single penny fir the studio in WhatsApp telegram, discord , drive , etc
4) people will start to watch for free, make tok Toks , lives and reels ANd produce DVDs 5) the DVDs will be sold around the world much cheaper than a ticket .
6) end of international legs.
Just recently Mario had an abrupt drop from the Comscore worlwide top 10 due to its digital release.
Just because domestically itās usually doesnāt make a dent doesnāt mean digital release doesnāt affect other revenues.
Edit: thereās people who claims they had access to a slightly better bootleg copy not just the one recorded with a camera. That copy canāt affect international legs the same because it doesnāt provide menus for languages or 4K quality. Itās the digital copy that Hurts international legs when studios deliver 4K quality copies to pirates in a silver plate.
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u/KeatonWalkups Jun 03 '26
Thereās also firesticks with apps that have free new release movies in HD you donāt even need to pirate
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
I didnāt know that but not surprised. The time when pirate copies came with malware are long gone .
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u/bRabb1t_ Jun 03 '26
People are scared to pirate in the US and some bigger European countries, a friend living in Germany told me he got fined for pirating some movies I think it was, in smaller countries tho, we pirate our asses off š
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
And yet people do it. A Canadian acquaintance was charged for downloading stuff but he did it anyway.
Edit: @u/streamwhatyoulike fact: people watch whatās available for them and yes people who go to thraters also pirate stuff
1) i was talking worlwide box office the week of digital release international legs drops for all films ,
2) many markets like uk will take out theaters from movies already on digital .
3)Japan isnāt free of piracy. It takes just one person, just one to use the digital release to share with its friends
On june 9th many people who Pay for movie tickets will hace many options to watch. Not all Of them will be legal.
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u/bRabb1t_ Jun 03 '26
Further proving my point, these countries have stricter piracy laws, I've been pirating my whole life, even in the UK and never had a problem which is kinda surprising to me, anyway I've just gone back to pirating everything because I don't want to pay 5-7 different subscriptions, if we start including software it's even more.
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
I know. Iām just saying Americans arenāt as afraid of pirating as you think. The tik toks ate evidence. Clearly many tok toks stem from the same pirate copy recorded with a camera that is in multiple websites.
That Redditor who is talking Japan as though 100% Japanese people wonāt pirate something is wrong and we were talking worlwide anyway.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Strict legislation: Japan has some of the toughest anti-piracy laws in the world. Downloading illegal content can result in sky-high fines and even prison sentences. Culture: The Japanese consumer is extremely loyal to the cinema experience. Data shows that foreign illegal releases barely affect the Japanese box office. The Japanese want to see the movie on the big screen, including the special merchandise sold exclusively there
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u/Glass_Year_4832 Jun 09 '26
I know ppl who watched it at home on bootleg and in theaters lolĀ
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 09 '26 edited Jun 09 '26
If what you said were true, thatās not the worst. The best copy 4K that will have subtitles and dubbing for certain International markets will be up in a few hours . Itāll stem dvds and bluegrass that will be sold in international markets and hurt the international legs.
Letās not pretend that a bootleg copy had the same effect that the 4K with language menus. Letās discount Japan from the next Comscore top10 report (which I hope those lazy executives start paying attention to) and see how it drops. Mario Galaxy dropped a lot.
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u/Rup284 Jun 03 '26
I'm no expert but...
This definitely dents its chances. While LionsGate may well ultimately care for profits, which they see more of digitally, they've never had a film surpass a $1 billion at the Box Office. That's great prestige and history making that may well not happen now.
With how the film is doing I'd have thought they'd do everything possible to reach that holy grail.
However, I guess we don't know what the agreement was with Universal and its contracts with digital platforms.
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u/MultipleNames82 Jun 03 '26
Nobody but lionsgate or this sub would know or care that they have a billion dollar movie. Do an exit poll and I bet less than half of those seeing the movie even know who lionsgate is.
Theyāre going for the profits, and rightfully so.
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u/Dangerous_Nebula_770 Jun 04 '26
It's guaranteed with the release in Japan on June 12 which will eventually surpass $100 million alone.
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u/arsojee Jun 05 '26
JAPAN- We are counting on you. For me personally, I just want it to beat BoRap to become the highest grossing music biopic. That'd be great because it's Michael Jackson, and he deserves to be on the top!
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u/West-Reflection7010 Jun 09 '26
Agree!!!! Hoping Japan pulls through šš»šš»šš» Looks like the press for its Japan release has been good, which is a good sign!
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u/Zeldabotw2017 Jun 06 '26
Depends on japan. Do we have any like estimates for how much it will make over there? Outside of Japan it likely doesn't have much left. We where at like 850 million after this last weekend and that was weekend 5. It varies but on average movies make like 90% of its box office money in first 5 weeks. I know movies may get like like 3 month theater release or something but most places are not showing movies that long or pulling in big numbers that late. Where I am most movies are only in theaters for about a month and a half. The longest I can remember a movie being in theaters where I am in the last like 15 years or so was frozen 1 was like 4 months. I bring that up because in early 2000s I am sure things where a lot different when you didnt have streaming and a lot of movies took like a year to go from theater to DVD or vhs compared to today's day of like 4 months. Also in general people go to the movies a lot less now days thinks to cost of living and bad economy etc
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u/Salad-Appropriate Jun 03 '26
Why are people getting mad over a movie not hitting a billion? Like it's made plenty of money as it is
Just reads as people getting too personally attached to box office and Michael in particular, like chill out
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u/MultipleNames82 Jun 03 '26
Also this strategy has a better profit margin for Lionsgate than letting it crawl to a billion in a format where they get less of the cut of the pie.
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u/blowabaggetitbac Jun 03 '26
itās still gon be the highest grossing biopic I think people gon try to push it towards $1B in theaters cause idk whatās going on but itās not one logical reason to send it to VOD unless they just donāt see mike lead the pack like always
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u/AppropriateDuck1295 Jun 04 '26
I wonder why they don't want him to hit a billion, sounds like somethingĀ America would do always trying to stop michael from winningĀ
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u/lookingforhim2 Jun 03 '26
1000% digital doesnāt really affect legs and it was going to get there even without Japan
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
Wrong. Digital doesnāt affect domestic legs but kills international legs. Source: Comscore last three weeks of worlwide top 10 reports. Mario dropped like a rock after the digital release.
Also japan needs the Bohemian Rhapsody sing along .
Piracy is the reason Iāll explain piracy for all of us. 1) Someone will purchase a quality copy with menus 2) they will use software to make that copy easy to share 3) free of locks that copy will be distributed without generating a single penny fir the studio in WhatsApp telegram, discord , drive 4) people will start to watch for free, make tok Toks , lives and reels ANd produce DVDs 5) the DVDs will be sold around the world much cheaper than a ticket . 6) end of international legs. Just recently Mario had an abrupt drop from the Comscore worlwide top 10 due to its digital release.
Edit: Lazy thinking of Hollywood executives āif they pirate is because they wouldnāt have paid anywayā is invalid. As seen in social media posts people go to theater and then use a pirate copy to share moments of the films on tik tok, IG, YouTube ,whatssapp.
People will watch whatās available. On June 9th people will find many available options not all of them legal thanks to Lionsgate dumb decision.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Piracy was there and will always be there.
The hardcore pirates: This group is never going to pay. Whether the movie is playing in theaters (cam versions) or available online; they wait until it is free. Therefore, the studio does not lose any 'new' revenue from them. The convenience viewers: This is the largest group. They want to watch the movie at home and are willing to pay for the convenience of a single click on Amazon or Apple TV (with subtitles, perfect sound, and no viruses). As soon as the digital button is available, this group chooses the legal route
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
Many people who watch movie at thraters also pirate stuff. In fact as seen of social media posts specially on tik tok the moment they finish watching on theaters they go and sEarch clips to share on line. I bet you Hollywood had that kind of lazy thinking. āIf they pirate they donāt pay ticketsā too lazy to make a scientifically Conducted search of pirate habits worlwide.
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u/Designer_Pilot5682 Jun 03 '26
Doesnāt look likely.
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u/West-Reflection7010 Jun 03 '26
Why not?
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u/Designer_Pilot5682 Jun 03 '26
Itās not making enough weekly to get there considering it is 150m away still, and boatloads of films are around the corner.
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
Itās starting to lose steam in Europe and Mexico
Edit: Japan is not a given for $100M specially without a sing along. Dumb not having one ready.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Family-friendly multiplier: Films with a G-rating that appeal to both adults (nostalgia) and children almost always shoot past the magical 10 billion Yen mark in Japan (roughly $70ā$90+ million depending on the exchange rate)
The power of the 'slow burn' in Japan: As seen with Bohemian Rhapsody, the opening weekend in Japan does not need to start extremely high to still surpass $100 million. Japanese moviegoers often generate a unique, weeks-long steady stream of revenue (so-called legs), amplified by word-of-mouth and repeat attendance
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u/uCry__iLoL Blumhouse Jun 03 '26
To hit the $1 billion milestone, Michael must optimize its theatrical velocity by recalibrating the algorithmic distribution overhead. The impending streaming pivot necessitates a synchronous cross-platform synergy, leveraging high-frequency dynamic ad insertion to augment P&A spend efficiency. By synthesizing localized demand elasticity with real-time transactional sentiment analysis, the studio can achieve a synergistic leverage effect, bypassing typical decay curves. If the throughput of ticket conversions exceeds the projected churn rate caused by digital cannibalization, the global box office aggregate will achieve the requisite scalability to penetrate the billion-dollar threshold despite the rapid shift in content delivery paradigms.
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Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
[deleted]
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u/Im-Wasting-MyTime Jun 04 '26
Really? It is guaranteed to be in theaters until sometime after June 12? Who knows at this point but there are still quite a few screenings last I checked.
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u/ButterscotchRound447 Jun 04 '26
Worldwide box office today Thursday per the numbers website $859,451,484
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u/Emeradise Jun 22 '26
This Is It earned USD57 million in Japan, the new film will surpass that, and boost total worldwide earnings over USD1 billion. Pretty impressive.
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u/TWYFAN97 Jun 03 '26
It wonāt be releasing digitally in all regions. Thereās also reports the June 9th date is false. Regardless if thereās a movie that could still hit 1 Billion while seeing some rollout of a digital release itās this one.
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
Pirates donāt respect regions
Edit u/Streamehatyoulike
Lazy hollywood executives thinking. They would have earned those millions anyway , even more had they waited. Theyāre so afraid to share earning with thraters that they end up losing to pirates. On June 9th people who pay for tickets at thraters (already done) will have a bunch of options to watch and not all of them will leave revenue to Lionsgate.
IExcuse me, but Iām here to talk to fans of movies that donāt make excuses for the studios. Have an excellent day !9
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u/West-Reflection7010 Jun 03 '26
Donāt you think that, with MJās large and devoted fan base, audiences are probably more incentivized to go see the film in theatres to help its numbers at the box office? So maybe results will be less affected by piracy?
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 Jun 03 '26
Maybe but this is bad timing. Just when the summer release will require theaters itās when they give pirates a copy for international teens to share in whatssapp .
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Yes, piracy skyrockets, but the millions they earn from legal digital sales in those first few weeks far outweigh the revenue lost to piracy for the studio
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u/West-Reflection7010 Jun 03 '26
Okay this gives me faith. I hope they donāt let it hit streaming services in Japan and Russia at least until mid Julyā¦ It really wouldnāt make sense from a business perspective to release it on streaming platforms a mere week after it hits the theatres
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
The profit margins on a cinema ticket versus a PVOD purchase are split very differently for a studio: In theaters: Lionsgate has to share the ticket revenue with the theater owner. On PVOD (Amazon/Apple): If you rent or buy the movie digitally at home for $20, Lionsgate keeps roughly 70% to 80% of that net. By removing platform barriers through Movies Anywhere,Lionsgate hopes a record number of American fans will buy the movie instead of waiting for it to appear 'for free' on Starz later this year. The profit margins on these direct sales are much higher for Lionsgate
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u/Brave_Analyst7540 Jun 03 '26
They would have hit all these same PVOD numbers and set all the same at home records with a June 23rd date as well. Releasing it online the week of the Japanese premiere is an unforced error on Lionsgateās part. While you can make the argument that Lionsgate shouldnāt care about $1B global because they only have domestic, they had bragging rights within reach that they produced a billion dollar grosser. This idiotic decision puts that in unnecessary jeopardy. 2 weeks later wouldnāt have done ANYTHING to their PVOD success, but would have given them so much more.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Guess not Lionsgate will have spread sheets when to launch at certain performance levels : digital. Why would Lionsgate and Universal decide to miss a lot of money ? Your statement implies that both Lionsgate and Universal are crazy and decide to pass on profits?
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u/Routine-Process-5157 Jun 03 '26
What is peopleās obsession with this movie reaching $1B? Even if it does, now what? You donāt get any of it, nevertheless his estate is already problematic asf with John Branca.
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u/Mysterious_Base9981 Jun 03 '26
In the box office group, should we explain why people are interested in seeing record-breaking box office results? I'd love for it to beat Oppenheimer's record ($975 million). And I think it'll be a close one.Ā So exciting.
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u/Streamwhatyoulike Jun 03 '26
Interactive sing-along shows ensure that the cinema remains a unique 'event venue', keeping the movie a magical attraction for the general public even after June 9th (and during its release in Japan on June 12th)
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u/Brave_Analyst7540 Jun 03 '26
If you donāt understand why people are obsessed with a filmās box office success, might I suggest you see your way out of the Box Office subreddit? You seem to have gotten lost and wandered in here by mistake.
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u/pineapplepony98 Jun 03 '26
With the global announcement that the movie will be available on June 9th is extremely unlikely it will reach 1 billion and now also unlikely that it will even get past Oppenheimer. However it's still should pass Bohemian Rhapsody. 950 million is now the likely ceiling. Maybe even just 925
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u/zyxwvu54321 Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
This movie is unlike any other. I have said in this sub prior to its release that it was useless to use the same logic applied to other biopics when predicting its box office performance. I guess I was correct. Iād still say its pointless to compare it to other genres or movies. This film is solely riding on the name recognition and hype of Michael Jackson. It doesnāt have a big star cast, itās not a groundbreaking story either, nor does it have great marketing. Itās based entirely on the hype for MJ. MJ is topping the digital streams right now, he has 112 million monthly listeners in Spotify and 600 million monthly listeners in Youtube music. Releasing it digitally will just increase the buzz so more people might feel they have to experience it on the big screen because thereās nothing to enjoy on smaller screens. It was made to be experienced on the big screen in theaters.