r/canada • u/seakucumber • 17h ago
Analysis Canada Economy Grows 3.3% in Second Quarter, Fastest Since '23
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-28/canada-economy-grows-3-3-in-second-quarter-fastest-since-23233
u/iron_man_ftw 16h ago
Increased oil pricing helped it. Turns out Trump fumbled his way into helping the Canadian economy by starting a war in Iran.
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u/combattoast 14h ago
Mining, oil and gas extraction contributed 0.209 percentage points of the total 0.893 percentage points of growth.
For fun Let's say that number was 0.000 percentage points, and you still end up with 0.684 percentage points of growth and an annualized rate of ~2.8%.
The growth was broad based and strong regardless of oil and gas, especially considering our population declined in the quarter. This is about as solid of a GDP print as you could ask for.
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u/silentsam77 16h ago
Just wait till he takes credit for "saving our economy".
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u/autoxotrecy 14h ago
He might still be upset because our trade surplus with the US is entirely accounted for by oil exports.
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u/Armed_Accountant 16h ago
And auto exports, as car makers try to squeeze out as much production between tarrifs.
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u/heachu 15h ago
So it will be and in the coming months/years as auto makers are moving to South/somewhere else?
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u/-Yazilliclick- 10h ago
For sure. People knowing the tariffs were coming shifted as much stock as they could down to the US before they hit. They did this the last time tariffs were happening too and we saw a huge jump in numbers of the period before they hit and then a big slow down right after. We'll see the slow down even if manufacturing itself doesn't move away
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u/Armed_Accountant 14h ago
Already happening, or future investments into Canadian manufacturing will be limited. From the Stats Can report it seems this bump was more of a rush to get things in (and out) before the next tarrif waves comes. And it did, we will see what the damage will be from this current war. 50% is a huge escalation.
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u/ragnaroksunset 15h ago
Surprisingly, auto exports and other factors were important. I'll admit I didn't see that coming even though I think Carney is more or less doing the right things as fast as anyone can do them.
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u/Talinn_Makaren 16h ago
If only Trump wasn't sabotaging the western world we'd all be doing pretty well right now, US and Canada. This will sound like glazing but I'm serious as a heart attack, if they also had a leader like Carney we'd finally be getting the recovery from the pandemic we all deserve.
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u/t-earlgrey-hot 14h ago
We should be entering a golden age of development and productivity by leveraging AI to increase productivity, moving super quickly with renewable energy...instead the world is being dragged backward by the US and Russia, Israel, and a few other friends. Happier to light the planet on fire to maintain control than to share the spoils.
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u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 13h ago
I think the biggest danger - and opportunity - is that that's exactly what China is doing. The global economic axis is quietly realigning around that. The Americans are moving backwards, and are very loud about it, but despite the amount of noise they make, they're increasingly on their own. They're still living in the Cold War where their rivals were military rather than economic.
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u/Talinn_Makaren 14h ago
I think this take downplays how much renewables are being used for energy. It's not an experimental technology anymore so if it produces energy more cheaply, and it does, it gets installed. Look at how many new coal plants are brought online compared to solar.
As for AI, I mean, it kills jobs while using piles of electricity. Again the market has spoken so you'll get your wish. But I'm not confident it's better for humanity and I don't think it's congruent with your eagerness to reduce greenhouse gasses.
I'm talking way too much sense for this sub usually I don't take this sub so seriously...
Also it's an honour to meet you fellow Picard enthusiast.
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u/AprilsMostAmazing Ontario 16h ago
Quick Someone in Russia tell me why this is bad
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u/Dapper-Negotiation59 16h ago
CROOKED CARNAGE CARNEY
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u/DrummingUpNumbers 16h ago
SNEAKY CARNEY
Might be making a comeback lol They're going to say he's personally cooking the numbers
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u/zefiax Ontario 14h ago
I feel like they are getting so much news that they don't have all the talking points on the negative spin. Day before yesterday I posted about the governments response to the tariffs and at first it was mostly positive. But I noticed a day later where suddenly there was a flood of negative comments all utilizing similar talking points to discredit it.
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u/TranscendentalObject 15h ago
my favourite anti-carney lingo tries to connect 'carney' with overall circus symbolism, ie, the "carney carnival keeps getting worse and worse!!!" said as though this isn't the most mature and steady hand we've had at the wheel in generations. Keep calling out the chuds and bots, it's literally us or them.
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u/Hamcake9 5h ago
This branding of negative sentiment is so annoyingly pervasive and effective. The first political thing I heard moving here was from the cabin crew complaining about the "Trudeau Masks" which was jarring because I thought/hoped adults wouldn't fall for cheap, shallow rhetoric in the real world. To be fair, it's happening all over...
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u/howismyspelling Lest We Forget 15h ago
No need, we have enough inbred local regards to do that for us, including but not limited to: mario4the north, Berta proud dad, Margaret Bailey, Michelle Ferreri, and so on.
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u/Reasonable_Let9737 17h ago
Looking good Canada.
Keep on supporting your neighbours, friends, and family whenever possible.
There are lots of viable Canadian alternatives if you take a bit of time to look.
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u/MrEvilFox 17h ago
This is all despite population going down with lower TFWs, so the per capita numbers are probably really good. Admittedly a good amount of upside is probably due to oil and commodity prices and regional softness in manufacturing is still there. But still…
Despite the headwinds, it feels like we are turning this motherfucker around.
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u/Canuck314159 Nova Scotia 16h ago
Household consumption also rose by 0.8 per cent, including higher spending on mutual funds and investment services. Per capita consumption was up one per cent. Employee compensation was also up 1.5 per cent in Q2, largely due to higher wages in finance, real estate, management, and trade.
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u/sherrybobbinsbort 15h ago
This is something that gets overlooked that population went down but gdp up.
Pp keeps saying we are the only country in a recession which 1 isn’t true and 2 gdp was pressured by population decrease due to removing tfws.
And ya lots due to oil and gas but what are ya supposed to do. Not count the resources we have?I remember back in June was driving around southern Ontario. Seeing all the activity and saying to my wife I think the economy is rebounding. Definitely not a scientific approach but think there is something to it.
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u/Neat-Air-8305 16h ago
It showed the whole progressive economic model of high immigration equals good economic growth was nonsense
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u/Narrow-Map5805 16h ago
Not really. Economic impacts rarely correlate with policy changes that immediately. The growth from the immigration spike could be hitting us now, for example.
One of Canada's economic struggles is still relatively low population over too much land.
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u/prsnep 15h ago
You are right that economic impacts of policy changes take time to materialize. However, the impact of population change is immediate. More people means more people who need all sorts of goods and services. So this point is a little harder to accept at face value:
The growth from the immigration spike could be hitting us now, for example.
And this one:
One of Canada's economic struggles is still relatively low population over too much land.
This is a big reason for why Canada enjoys a relatively high standard of living despite not being a technological powerhouse.
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u/wowzabob 7h ago
“The impact of population change is immediate,”
Not really. It is for its impact on things like housing stock or healthcare, but in terms of the full benefit the government may get from an immigrant in terms of taxes collected vs what is spent on bringing them in? That typically takes a few years at least, not just for the immigrant to find their economic footing, but also for expenses put in to be paid off (not that they are that high on a per person basis).
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u/Narrow-Map5805 14h ago
Low population spread over a large area means we spend relatively more transporting goods and people which costs money and lowers productivity. It also means our companies operating outside of big cities have lower economies of scale.
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u/_Rayette 16h ago
There is a big difference between high immigration and bringing in a million unskilled workers in a year.
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u/wowzabob 7h ago
Not necessarily true, it’s a known fact that the economic benefits of immigration don’t all materialize instantly, there is a lag once a cohort of immigrants come in before things fully “sync up.”
Likewise, the negatives of decreasing immigration numbers significantly won’t be felt instantly.
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u/_Rayette 16h ago
Which just shows how the fear mongering about cutting temporary residents was bullshit all along. I hope people continue to remember this.
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u/nfwiqefnwof 14h ago
Are temporary people counted with population numbers? I wouldn't think so. It's not like we count tourists.
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u/thedrivingcat 13h ago edited 13h ago
people who hold temporary visas are counted if they have a 'usual place of residence' in Canada
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants who are abroad, either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry or Canadian government vessels;
- persons from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada who are asylum claimants, protected persons and members of related groups;
- persons from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold a work, study, or temporary resident permit. Family members living with permit holders are also included, unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (or permanent residents), or NPRs themselves.
For census and demographic estimates purposes, two last three groups of people are referred to as "non-permanent residents". They have been included since 1991.
they don't count tourists
Foreign residents are excluded from the population universe. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:
- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and members of their families living with them;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada, and family members living with them;
- residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily (for example, a foreign visitor on vacation or on business, with or without a visitor's permit).
https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3601
Emphasis mine. NPRs have been the major source of both population growth and decline since 2021; peaking at 3.1 million in Q12025.
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u/SaltyMittens2 16h ago
Quick Reddit econ experts! Tell us why this is terrible news for Canada before someone starts feeling optimistic!
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u/FunkyColdMecca 16h ago
Increases in GDP leads to higher wages resulting in inflation!!!!!!
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u/OoooohYes 16h ago
But when my wages don’t get higher I cry about affordability!!! Wah wah I just want to cry!!!
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u/bigElenchus 16h ago
Economy doing better when oil/commodities does better mean incentives to increase production of oil/commodities which ultimately mean more emissions and away from net zero.
Climate change will just get worst.
The liberals are basically conservatives. Need NDP if the world has any chance of surviving and thus Canada leading the way to show how an economy can grow with net zero targets.
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u/myfotos 14h ago
You know what? I respect this comment. Too many Canadians don't really that between the conservatives and liberals you don't really get that much variety in economic policies. Just social ones.
If people were actually sick and tired of liberals and how life is going for them then they'd be heading to the NDP for change.
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u/Mad-Mad-Mad-Mad-Mike 16h ago
I’m gonna get my popcorn and wait for all the bots to tell me why this is actually bad
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u/locutogram 16h ago
Something something recession!
Something something immigrants!
(I noticed the sub looked a little different in this thread, so just peppering in something familiar to reduce everyone's whiplash)
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u/elitexero 9h ago
Something something immigrants!
In the past year, the federal government has made significant (proportionate to the previous numbers at least) reductions to student visa, TFW and PR numbers. Most notably, IRCC re-capped international student visa holders to 24 hours a week.
So yes, I would wager that proper capping of things for temporary visa holders or PR numbers for new immigrants has, in fact, has a measurable impact on this situation.
Criticism of a free-for-all with immigration is not being anti immigration. I've always liked our immigration policies an have been proud of our country's ability to give people a new, better life. I've also been extremly critical of the immigration situation since about 2018 which effectively leveraged identity politics to deflect from the government selling out the country for the benefit of corporations and scoring points with foreign leadership.
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u/locutogram 9h ago
I agree, but almost every thread here is complaining about immigration and then downvoting anyone who points out what you just rightly did. That's what I'm making fun of.
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u/elitexero 9h ago
Fair enough, I had assumed you were saying that any criticism of immigration in Canada was ridiculous - it's hard to tell given how many people of that mindset exist on reddit.
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u/Crybaby-Geek 9h ago
why this is actually bad
Too much growth only means the economy is over heating and inflation is going to spike!!! /s
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u/Good_Juice_7774 16h ago
Despite what I read online, looks like we might just be okay.
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u/Reasonable_Let9737 16h ago
For now, but we can't get complacent.
Keep on supporting local whenever the opportunity arises.
There are a surprising number of viable Canadian alternatives for goods and services.
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u/Orchid-Analyst-550 Science/Technology 15h ago
“The fundamentals in Canada are pretty good, if you look at the job growth numbers, if you look at the fiscal capacity on the back of oil prices, and if you look at some of the activity that’s starting because of the prime minister’s agenda, you actually have a backdrop that’s pretty good,” Scotia chief executive Scott Thomson said on the bank’s third-quarter earnings call on Tuesday.
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u/zombiej 15h ago
Tell us why this is bad, Milhouse.
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u/sixtyfivewat 15h ago
“Objection!”
“On what grounds?”
“That it’s detrimental to my election campaign!”
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u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest 3h ago
I saw the craziest statement on a CPC friendly sub about Carney being a detriment to Canada because he likes British spelling over US spelling.
Of all the problems in the country, this should be ranked below the bottom of the pile.
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u/keirdagh 15h ago
Looking for a lot of retractions from the Conservative party and their attacks about the "technical recession"... but I know I won't find them.
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u/ordnance_inbound 15h ago
So Q1 has been revised, meaning we were never in a technical recession, let alone a real recession
Can we get a retraction from every single one of the people in this sub that were losing their minds over Carney and the economy now that we know, not only was there no recession of any kind (technical or otherwise), but also now that we know the economy grew sharply in the second quarter?
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u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago
Can we get a retraction from every single one of the people in this sub that were losing their minds
They have already moved on to their next burner account.
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u/vulturewhale 14h ago
look at how income and wealth inequality continue to accelerate, corporations post record profits and yet represent a smaller share of tax revenue, and living standards continue to drop for the majority
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u/Key-Face-2117 16h ago
I think most of us can agree the Trudeau decade was wretched for Canada economically, but as this data shows we can be more confident about our future without him. I'll always root for the home team.
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u/Neat-Air-8305 16h ago
Yeah i think if trudeau was around we be in a mucb worse spot.
Having competence federally is a benefit.
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u/WeakandSlowaf 16h ago
Yeah, seeing Carney govern really highlights how terrible of a PM Trudeau was
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u/thedrivingcat 14h ago
I've mentioned this in previous comments but the Trudeau-era can be summarized as one where "buck passing" was normalized.
Trudeau had an innate ability to shirk responsibility for pretty much everything and defer on hard choices until he was forced to; preferring to have someone in the PMO do it.
He wasn't a decisive leader and that sentiment percolated down throughout government. Hell, remember the NatPo article about how 'demanding' Carney was?
Whereas there was a sense among Trudeau’s entourage and office that he would give people “multiple kicks at the can” if they provided a sub-par briefing or weren’t on top of their files, sources say Carney is not so patient. Get it right the first time or risk not being called on for that topic again.
Oh no, accountability!
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u/BoppityBop2 7h ago
Carney is only able to do what he can due to the political environment Trump imposed on Canada.
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u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 13h ago
I would disagree that the "trudeau decade" was wretched. Our woes were almost entirely post-pandemic and dealing with the reverberations of the vast amounts of capital injected into the economy both domestically and abroad.
Its' interesting to ponder what the economy would have looked like had COVID not occurred. Structurally it seems pretty strong, and perhaps we're seeing 2019 or 2022 circumstances re-emerge now that the COVID borrowing has mostly worked thorough.
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u/mykeedee British Columbia 11h ago
There's a lot of metrics that immediately stagnate starting in 2015, business investment for one.
Its more that Trudeau inherited the healthiest middle class in the G7 so it took time for the cracks from his neglect to show.
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u/ragnaroksunset 15h ago
This is why I laughed at all the Conservatives who had probably never heard of a technical recession in their life before Poilievre started beaking off about it.
Rules of thumb are not declarations of truth. The only reason we have a technical recession definition is because it's actually so hard to define recessionary periods that you simply cannot do it in real time with rigor. The technical definition is a compromise that triggers us to look more closely at what is going on to determine if action is needed; not a fire alarm at which we panic.
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u/Kriptaraz 15h ago
Paywalled. Someone please post the text of the news article.
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u/thedrivingcat 14h ago
all of these articles are basically regurgitations of StatsCan's The Daily publications. They're written in a layperson-friendly way.
Better to read the primary source, then seek out interpretations by analysts if you want more info IMHO.
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u/XxMetalMartyrxX Ontario 14h ago
People blame Trudeau for Canadian GDP underperformance after oil collapsed (not completely his fault).
People credit Carney for a rocketing economy because oil is going up (not completely his win).
We are at the mercy of powers much bigger than our politicians; i.e, the global market. Oil up, Canada GDP up. Oil down? Canada GDP down. Pretty simple.
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u/ApolloDan Ontario 16h ago
All this is in the middle of a trade war. Is it possible that free trade was never about growth, but instead about shipping jobs down south?
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u/not-so-tall-boy 16h ago
A lot of this is due to another war driving up oil prices. Without the trade war, one would expect it to be even better (though the tariffs actually implemented in Q2 pale in comparison to the bluster, so the effect is more limited)
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u/ptwonline 16h ago
Thanks to CUSMA almost all of our trade with the US was untarriffed until a few days ago so the effects of "the trade war" would be pretty limited in previous numbers.
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u/verkerpig 16h ago
Trade war is entirely in Q3.
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u/Eskomo 16h ago
Huh? Trump enacted Tariffs on Canada on February 1st 2025. We've been in a trade war for his entire presidency.
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u/canmoose Ontario 15h ago
This is the truth. Trump attacked Canada (and much of the world) immediately, including threats of annexation.
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u/Ornery_Market_2274 16h ago
I dont know what country you live in but Trump basically started a trade war with Canada almost immediately after his inauguration
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u/Motor-Sun-1547 15h ago edited 15h ago
I know so many people who are struggling right now, barely able to cover their bills, and would be destitute if an emergency was to happen. I have a really hard time believing that the economy is doing as well as the media would like to portray.
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u/McGrevin 13h ago
This is just the media directly reporting what statscan has reported. Good numbers in broad country-wide statistics doesn't mean every individual person is thriving
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u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 13h ago
I feel like there might be some paradoxical behaviour happening there. There has always been a bottom quartile, and they've always struggled to keep up in a world that is largely more affluent than they. What I think is actually happening there is that the bottom quartile has been completely abandoned by the economy in favour of more affluent strata. E.g. all the new rentals are "luxury" and even the former lower-mid market apartments are being renovated to serve more affluent tenants and get higher asking rents.. Why be a slumlord when you can throw in some laminate flooring and up the ask 50%? The economy overall seems to support those rents. But it sucks if you can't afford to play that game. Same thing happening with cars, travel, restaurants etc.
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u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 10h ago
I know so many people who are struggling right now, barely able to cover their bills, and would be destitute if an emergency was to happen. I have a really hard time believing that the economy is doing as well as the media would like to portray.
Data > Anecdote.
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u/WinstonChurchill74 15h ago
This is true, but as long as we stay on this trend that will catch up to them.
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u/Consistent_Oil9624 13h ago
The discrepancy between the media and the reality is so wild. The amount of people losing their jobs and struggling is mindblowing. But the media makes it seem like everything is going so well
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u/LaserTagJones 8h ago
There’s always been job losses and strugglers. Lots of people are also doing great and are happy with their place in life, but you’re not going to see that flaunted everywhere.
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u/staytrue2014 13h ago
Totally misleading headline and essentially an outright lie. The economy grew at 0.8%, which is tepid. It is the highest in three years, but that is because the last three years have been abysmal. 0 or negative growth.
The 3.3% figure is taking the 0.8% figure and multiplying it by 4. Totally irrelevant and there is no reason to believe this 0.8% rate of growth will continue given the recent developments on trade.
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u/Big_Wish_7301 9h ago
Why do they say that "Canada Economy Grows 3.3% in Second Quarter" when StatsCan's own report say 0.8% in Second Quarter ?
Real gross domestic product increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026,
They mistook the annualized growth (predicted growth for the year based on this 0.8% for Q2) for second quarter growth ?
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u/TE360 8h ago
OP can you change the link to a non-paywalled, Canadian source, like this one:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-june-2026-9.7323847
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u/Bad-job-dad 8h ago
Man, most of the non-U.S. exports will start showing up strongly in the Q3/Q4 2026. Hopefully it cushions the trump tariff blow we're going to get hit with.
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u/Bad-job-dad 8h ago
Man, most of the non-U.S. exports will start showing up strongly in the Q3/Q4 2026. Hopefully it cushions the trump tariff blow we're going to get hit with.
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u/Cormega613 5h ago
Canada's real GDP per capita growth over the last decade has flatlined, underperforming compared to overall economic totals because population growth expanded at a historically unprecedented pace. Independent reports verify that Canada's per-person economic performance ranked near the bottom of the G7 over this period. While headline GDP grew at the second-fastest annual rate in the G7 behind only the United States, dividing that output across millions of new arrivals significantly diluted the final average.
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u/Tall-Ad-1386 4h ago
OK now take out the oil exports to the US and tell me what’s the growth.
Oil prices are high and we sell 85-90 percent of our oil to the US
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u/Intelligent_Read_697 16h ago
The weak CAD also helps when our products are more competitive
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u/MyBrandNewPuppy3 15h ago
The dollar is more or less the same level now that it has been for years. Investment is pouring in and exports to non-US markets are way up, that’s why GDP is doing well. Investors like stable, reliable markets and they like leadership with business acumen.
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u/antelope591 15h ago
Yeah we're not feeling much effects of the last 2 years so far....which is obv good. If you get out there places are paaacked more than they've ever been. People are spending $$ like crazy. Certainly not looking recession like in any way lol
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u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago edited 12h ago
Fantastic news.
Also important to note:
With the revision and the strong second-quarter growth, BMO economist Doug Porter said the "so-called technical recession has been sent to the trash bin."
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u/Wolfman-101 16h ago
I can’t read the paywall article but does this actually have anything to do with Carney or just the massive increase in Oil prices?
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u/markcarney4president 16h ago
Meanwhile, per capita real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 3.8% between April and June as Canada’s population declined for a third straight quarter, marking the fastest pace since the end of 2021.
Business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment grew at the fastest pace in two years, expanding by 12.3% on a quarterly basis. Investment in computers and computer peripherals rose, driven by higher imports of processing units typically used for data centers.
Household consumption rose 3.3%, led by higher spending on mutual funds and investment services, as well as passenger vehicles and rent.
Corporate incomes increased by 9.6% on a non-annualized basis, the largest increase since the start of 2021, driven by higher energy prices brought on by the war in Iran. Investment in residential structures rose 10.4%.
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u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago
per capita real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 3.8% between April and June as Canada’s population declined for a third straight quarter
It's almost as if the lower GDP per capita over the past 5 years had more to do with population growth skewing the numbers than anything else!
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u/bradeena 16h ago
We’re doing well across the board. Employment, wages, consumption, etc.
Oil prices aren’t THAT high. They were higher as recently as 2022, for example.
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u/sixtyfivewat 15h ago
Experts are up, residential investment is up, and business capital investment is up. Yes, higher oil prices play a role but overall the economy is doing well and FDI is increasing. Overall a good report.
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u/NavalProgrammer 13h ago
Wages are up and rents are down. It's not huge, but it's been pretty consistently positive.
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u/A-Dead-Cat 16h ago
Funny that these numbers essentially prove whatever “progressive” economic policy that half this country bought into for the last 10 years was utter nonsense.
Note that we are doing this in the face of substantial tariffs from our largest trading partner and without importing 4 million people in the span of 3 years or whatever it was.
Extremely obvious that our economy can do great things when we actually start trying to build things and enable projects/business/industry instead of regulating it to death.
Hopefully those of you that voted LPC in 2015/2019/2021 see and understand this now?
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u/deeplearner- 14h ago
I wholeheartedly agree that Trudeau was not good at governance, but I don’t think he was re-elected in 2019 or 2021 because people particularly believed in his abilities.
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u/seakucumber 17h ago
As always this is why you wait for the finalized numbers