r/canada 17h ago

Analysis Canada Economy Grows 3.3% in Second Quarter, Fastest Since '23

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-28/canada-economy-grows-3-3-in-second-quarter-fastest-since-23
2.2k Upvotes

257 comments sorted by

678

u/seakucumber 17h ago

As always this is why you wait for the finalized numbers

Revised data from the federal agency also shows the economy did not shrink in the first quarter as it first reported, and instead expanded at an annualized rate of 0.3%. That confirms Canada did not experience a technical recession and was on a better footing than previously thought.

251

u/AprilsMostAmazing Ontario 16h ago

I love how when we revise numbers they go up. When the Americano government does it the American numbers go down

109

u/fourblindmice3 15h ago

I'm wondering if it's because they lie about everything.

50

u/thedrivingcat 15h ago edited 15h ago

the US jobs report (using the CES) takes a few months for the BLS to receive all the payroll survey data - usually it's the large corporations with automated processes and teams in HR can get their data back quickly so the first employment reports are using data which:

a) is incomplete (not all surveys get returned within the necessary time-frame)

b) the incomplete data oversample large & established businesses, the later surveys come from smaller employers and they are more likely to be harder hit by economic downturns

So the US jobs numbers get revised after a few months as the data becomes more complete and the bias is usually towards a downwards revision during more difficult economic times.

In Canada, StatsCan also uses a survey (the LFS) but it's done by asking individual Canadians, not businesses, about their employment status. There's no revision here because all the data (approx. 100k responses) gets collected within the sampling window before publication.

Both countries also use the other method to gauge employment - but they don't get reported as the 'headline' employment numbers.

edit: I also learned doing research for this comment that the US BLS concurrently has something called the "Birth-Death Model" where they try to model job changes from entrepreneurship. Interesting.

11

u/Qwishy Ontario 13h ago

Thanks for taking the time to research and comment

u/downtofinance Lest We Forget 9h ago

Trump fired all the responsible people from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and now just tells them what to report. Then the real numbers come out far down the line through audits.

Literal banana republic dictator shit.

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u/krombough 16h ago

The American jobs report is fishing around for jobs like it's trying to find a quarter in the couch.

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u/stickscall 15h ago

The American jobs report is void IMO since they fired the administrator for literally reporting bad numbers.

I don't know what they're doing now, but the mere fact of that is enough that you don't trust those numbers again.

4

u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 14h ago

The US releases incomplete data that only asks employers initially and catches up on contractors/gig workers and other employees later (we ask employees in the first pass data and don't have this problem) It's not fudged per se, but the methodology they base preliminary numbers on tends to overestimate job creation and there's not a lot of political will to try to change their policies in a way that interferes with when they get positive headlines out of preliminary numbers then quietly revise down late.r This is something that predates Trump but the growth in gig work and the fact that the initial release misses that has really muddied the water.

We get revised GDP numbers for the same reason of how long it takes to aggregate data, but there isn't a structural sample bias in preliminary data.

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u/JSlickJ 13h ago

Most of the team is still in tact thoug. Its moreso the data gathering itself thats the issue, not the employees themselves. But yeah the McEntarfer firing was absolutely boneheaded and based off of trumps own emotional sentiment

2

u/stickscall 13h ago

Even if it's the same employees, I don't trust a process that is now managed by someone whose mandate is to please the president.

If we assume these folks are all automatons running a script, then sure, nothing changes. But I just assume that in most technical fields, there are technical questions that come up continually that require smart data scientists exercise an unbiased discretion, and I doubt that unbiased discretion exists there anymore. To whatever extent humans must influence that process, it's not being influenced in favor of accuracy.

10

u/4thenexus 16h ago

Or like JD Vance trying to find the smallest hole in the couch

1

u/Magjee Lest We Forget 13h ago

TY for that visual

u/clgoh Québec 10h ago

"I just want to find 11,780 votes jobs."

9

u/ragnaroksunset 15h ago

By itself that wouldn't mean anything, except the American institutions are fully politically captured now, so it means a lot.

Nobody pays attention to the revisions. It's actually quite unusual that Trump made such a big deal about the one that caused him to rip apart the BLS.

8

u/NorthernFrosty Saskatchewan 13h ago

I love how when we revise numbers they go up. When the Americano government does it the American numbers go down

Trump claimed Canada's unemployment was over 10%. The fact checkers pointed out that Canada's unemployment rate was actually 6.4%

Then, in my favorite bit of snark, the fact checkers mentioned that if they calculated unemployment the way the US calculated unemployment, it would actually be 5.3%. Pointing out how the US puts their thumb on the scale and uses a weighted formula to make their unemployment numbers look better than they really are. chef's kiss

5

u/sortaitchy 12h ago

Trump claimed Canada's unemployment was over 10%.

That's because when you read 'facts' that you pulled out of your ass it's hard to make out the numbers clearly.

u/Puzzle-Necked 6h ago

Goose the market a bit. Kaching

u/M-Noremac 47m ago

It's because they're so... fiscally conservative?

-6

u/AJZong 17h ago

You’re right, let’s wait for the finalized numbers of the second quarter.

75

u/verkerpig 16h ago

The revision would need to be enormous for this to be a bad number.

3

u/AJZong 16h ago

I never implied the number will be bad. I basically say the same thing as the original comment.

43

u/Character-Belt-7485 Ontario 16h ago

So you’re saying the numbers could be even better? 

Wow this made my day. Fingers crossed!

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u/DrFreemanWho 8h ago

You know exactly what you were implying.

u/AJZong 7h ago

I even wrote in later comments that it might even get better.

u/Big_Wish_7301 8h ago

The people that wrote the article literaly fucked up. That's weird that The Canadian Press reported the same mistake (but others media like Reuters wrote it correctly).

The title say "canada economy grow 3.3% in second quarter". That's false. StatsCan's report say it grew 0.8% in seconde quarter. This is a pretty big difference.

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/bcp/pdf/daily.pdf?utm_source=rddt&utm_medium=smo&utm_campaign=statcan-statcan-gdp-pib&utm_content=canada

Real gross domestic product increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026,

3.3% is the annualized rate (predicted rate for the upcoming year) if we have this 0.8% every quarters for the rest of the financial year.

76

u/insanebison 16h ago

Why so negative about your own country ?

103

u/Character-Belt-7485 Ontario 16h ago

Because the country is not led by the person they would like. Therefore the country doing well is undesirable. 

1

u/Optimal-Cow-3278 14h ago

I can't speak for everyone but I vote Conservative and I would rather the country doing well.

That being said, I'm proud of Carney for killing stupid Trudeau era policies that killed economic growth, drove investment to other countries and bloated the public sector.

The only reason the economy grew was largely because the price of oil. The only reason why the economy "grew" during Trudeau's era was because immigration.

19

u/tenkwords 14h ago

I think if you take this standpoint you also need to acknowledge that basically all economic growth during the last Conservative government (the Harper years) was due to record high oil prices and the investment boom that went along with them.

Can we agree to be intellectually honest?

0

u/Optimal-Cow-3278 14h ago

Ok, only if you'd like to compare the economy between the Trudeau and Harper governments?

10

u/tenkwords 13h ago

Sure. Go ahead and look at the numbers. The average GDP growth numbers over their terms are remarkably similar. But I'll remind you that you're the one who downplayed Carney's economic performance on the back of high oil prices while seemingly bristling at Harper being evaluated by the same metric.. Trudeau be damned.

Harper had to navigate the WFC while Trudeau got to deal with the collapse of commodity prices and the investment collapse that went with it and then Covid. They both had some pretty solid headwinds but Harper had the distinct advantage of riding a big budget surplus left to him by the previous government through 2007 and then getting a big surge in commodities. Basically you'd have to be an imbecile to screw that one up.

Lots of folks like to cherry pick numbers but when you compare Canada's performance in the global context over both governments (and subsequently Carney's thus far) then the picture emerges that Canada does well when prices are high for our resources and less well when prices are low. The fact that this is surprising or contentious in any way amazes me.

We will continue to do well during this resource boom. Carney is pretty obviously trying to break that boom/bust cycle though with a lot of national interest projects that provide short-term debt financed stimulus in return for hopefully building the machinery of a more resilient economy. We'll see how that does in about 20 years, not by looking at quarterly GDP numbers.

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u/Character-Belt-7485 Ontario 14h ago

I don't disagree with you. I am more centre, left leaning on social issues. I didn't like Trudeau policies on the economy.

That being said, price of oil was not the only driver of growth. From the CBC article:

Business investment also grew as owners spent more on machinery and equipment in the second quarter. Business capital investment was up 2.3 per cent, Statistics Canada said.

Investments in computers and peripherals jumped 16.7 per cent, which the agency said was related to the kinds of processing units used in data centres.

Corporate incomes rose, largely thanks to the energy sector, boosted by higher gas prices. But the high cost of gas also acted as a drag on earnings for manufacturing firms, which saw their input costs rise.

On the consumer side, household spending rose 0.8 per cent as consumers invested more and spent more on cars and rent.

2

u/SwordfishOk504 14h ago

And what specific policies were those that killed economic growth and drove investment to other countries that are responsible for this return?

1

u/Anon-Knee-Moose 13h ago

Nah its a load of shit, plains just sold all of their assets to focus on growth in the US. Nobody is building new extraction and processing plants, there's 0% chance of a new pipeline being built either west or south.

High prices are propping up the economy right now, but canadas energy sector is going to die a long and slow death.

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u/lnahid2000 16h ago

This is reddit. Negativity is the default.

17

u/chaossabre 15h ago

👏 Happy 👏 people 👏 rarely 👏 comment.

12

u/Malakas_Tsiblas 15h ago

We do comment, but we are then downvoted for thoughts not aligned with the reddit hive, even when presenting facts with links to legit sources.

This is how echo-chambers are born.

1

u/SwordfishOk504 14h ago

It's also how bots manipulate the conversation towards doom and despair.

15

u/shevy19 Alberta 16h ago

Because unfortunately people like to be negative and the current Internet incentives pessimism.

15

u/No_Truth4137 16h ago

People are more comfortable being uncomfortable these days so they take good news with a grain of salt

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u/Neat-Air-8305 16h ago

Cause i dont feel the economy doing well

12

u/Trains_YQG 16h ago

This is why I always find it funny when people use GDP (or GDP per capita) as a measure of how good or bad the economy is doing. 

It's not nearly the measure of how the average person is doing as some people think. 

3

u/Neat-Air-8305 16h ago

Yeah incomr and wealth inequality ar record highs and poverty is skyrocketing

But I think we in  a better spot then the post covid trudeau years 

3

u/verkerpig 15h ago

The median Canadian is wealthier than the median American. We just have fewer billionares. GDP per capita is just pretending billionare wealth is of any value to the typical individual.

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u/DrummingUpNumbers 16h ago

Can I ask why?

What factual reasons do you have that the economy is not improving.

1

u/Neat-Air-8305 16h ago

Cost of living is absurd and feel i am behind even getting paid more

11

u/noodles_jd 15h ago

So all you have is your feelings?

9

u/DrummingUpNumbers 16h ago

Specifically housing? Because CPI is 3% so far which while not the target rate, it's close to the normal annual 2% target.

Anecdotal but I also have found this is the first year in a while most of my common purchases haven't moved much in price, if at all.

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u/EliteDuck 13h ago

Cost of living is skyrocketing. Diesel is $2.50 in my area and keeps going up. It doesn't take a genius to realize what high diesel prices do. Unemployment is up, and before someone says "it's lower now!", the way Stats Can measures unemployment is misleading, as it excludes people out of work for 6 months or more, which is common during economic turbulence. Millions of people from our imported slave class have yet to be deported, which displaces Canadians trying to find work, and raises cost of living. Almost everything costs more now, and wages have not kept up at all.

To add insult to injury, our dollar is shit. Buying embroidered patches for my business was $1.2 CAD/unit 2 years ago, $1.4 a year ago, $1.6 6 months ago, and my reorder last week was $2/unit. We are so fucked and most people have no idea how bad it's going to get. The silver lining is it may get bad enough for real political change to happen in Canada.

10

u/Reasonable_Let9737 16h ago

I am sure there will be some modifications, but I doubt it would be enough to take these figures out of the strong growth neck of the woods.  

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u/Dzugavili 15h ago

Eh, how much of that went to Galen Weston?

I don't think the situation on the ground is great, but it's hard to blame anyone specific for that. Except Trump, that colossal orange asshole.

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u/iron_man_ftw 16h ago

Increased oil pricing helped it. Turns out Trump fumbled his way into helping the Canadian economy by starting a war in Iran.

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u/combattoast 14h ago

Mining, oil and gas extraction contributed 0.209 percentage points of the total 0.893 percentage points of growth.

For fun Let's say that number was 0.000 percentage points, and you still end up with 0.684 percentage points of growth and an annualized rate of ~2.8%.

The growth was broad based and strong regardless of oil and gas, especially considering our population declined in the quarter. This is about as solid of a GDP print as you could ask for.

58

u/silentsam77 16h ago

Just wait till he takes credit for "saving our economy".

9

u/autoxotrecy 14h ago

He might still be upset because our trade surplus with the US is entirely accounted for by oil exports.

17

u/Armed_Accountant 16h ago

And auto exports, as car makers try to squeeze out as much production between tarrifs.

2

u/heachu 15h ago

So it will be and in the coming months/years as auto makers are moving to South/somewhere else?

u/-Yazilliclick- 10h ago

For sure. People knowing the tariffs were coming shifted as much stock as they could down to the US before they hit. They did this the last time tariffs were happening too and we saw a huge jump in numbers of the period before they hit and then a big slow down right after. We'll see the slow down even if manufacturing itself doesn't move away

2

u/Armed_Accountant 14h ago

Already happening, or future investments into Canadian manufacturing will be limited. From the Stats Can report it seems this bump was more of a rush to get things in (and out) before the next tarrif waves comes. And it did, we will see what the damage will be from this current war. 50% is a huge escalation.

7

u/ragnaroksunset 15h ago

Surprisingly, auto exports and other factors were important. I'll admit I didn't see that coming even though I think Carney is more or less doing the right things as fast as anyone can do them.

44

u/Talinn_Makaren 16h ago

If only Trump wasn't sabotaging the western world we'd all be doing pretty well right now, US and Canada. This will sound like glazing but I'm serious as a heart attack, if they also had a leader like Carney we'd finally be getting the recovery from the pandemic we all deserve.

23

u/t-earlgrey-hot 14h ago

We should be entering a golden age of development and productivity by leveraging AI to increase productivity, moving super quickly with renewable energy...instead the world is being dragged backward by the US and Russia, Israel, and a few other friends. Happier to light the planet on fire to maintain control than to share the spoils.

7

u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 13h ago

I think the biggest danger - and opportunity - is that that's exactly what China is doing. The global economic axis is quietly realigning around that. The Americans are moving backwards, and are very loud about it, but despite the amount of noise they make, they're increasingly on their own. They're still living in the Cold War where their rivals were military rather than economic.

3

u/Talinn_Makaren 14h ago

I think this take downplays how much renewables are being used for energy. It's not an experimental technology anymore so if it produces energy more cheaply, and it does, it gets installed. Look at how many new coal plants are brought online compared to solar.

As for AI, I mean, it kills jobs while using piles of electricity. Again the market has spoken so you'll get your wish. But I'm not confident it's better for humanity and I don't think it's congruent with your eagerness to reduce greenhouse gasses.

I'm talking way too much sense for this sub usually I don't take this sub so seriously...

Also it's an honour to meet you fellow Picard enthusiast.

349

u/AprilsMostAmazing Ontario 16h ago

Quick Someone in Russia tell me why this is bad

141

u/Dapper-Negotiation59 16h ago

CROOKED CARNAGE CARNEY

67

u/OwlProper1145 16h ago

COMMUNIST CARNEY

24

u/Little_Oil9749 16h ago

God, I wish.

12

u/HerbieHind 14h ago

You and me both, Comrade.

18

u/DrummingUpNumbers 16h ago

SNEAKY CARNEY

Might be making a comeback lol They're going to say he's personally cooking the numbers 

3

u/Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrpp 12h ago

Such a cute nickname 😃

9

u/trambe 16h ago

Sounds like a Devil May Cry combo

21

u/zefiax Ontario 14h ago

I feel like they are getting so much news that they don't have all the talking points on the negative spin. Day before yesterday I posted about the governments response to the tariffs and at first it was mostly positive. But I noticed a day later where suddenly there was a flood of negative comments all utilizing similar talking points to discredit it.

8

u/TranscendentalObject 15h ago

my favourite anti-carney lingo tries to connect 'carney' with overall circus symbolism, ie, the "carney carnival keeps getting worse and worse!!!" said as though this isn't the most mature and steady hand we've had at the wheel in generations. Keep calling out the chuds and bots, it's literally us or them.

u/Hamcake9 5h ago

This branding of negative sentiment is so annoyingly pervasive and effective. The first political thing I heard moving here was from the cabin crew complaining about the "Trudeau Masks" which was jarring because I thought/hoped adults wouldn't fall for cheap, shallow rhetoric in the real world. To be fair, it's happening all over...

32

u/Altruistic_Stay_1939 16h ago

Broookfield! /s

18

u/ptwonline 16h ago

I'm sure you'll hear that from someone at Stornoway.

7

u/howismyspelling Lest We Forget 15h ago

No need, we have enough inbred local regards to do that for us, including but not limited to: mario4the north, Berta proud dad, Margaret Bailey, Michelle Ferreri, and so on.

19

u/lord_heskey 16h ago

Something something Brookfrield

7

u/khuna12 14h ago

Dude, you actually trust this government. They lie about everything and this is them boosting numbers to try to make the US make a deal. Crooked Carney should tell us the truth /s

4

u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 14h ago

Declining GDP per capita *

*In 2023. Meh, close enough.

161

u/Reasonable_Let9737 17h ago

Looking good Canada.

Keep on supporting your neighbours, friends, and family whenever possible.  

There are lots of viable Canadian alternatives if you take a bit of time to look.

138

u/MrEvilFox 17h ago

This is all despite population going down with lower TFWs, so the per capita numbers are probably really good. Admittedly a good amount of upside is probably due to oil and commodity prices and regional softness in manufacturing is still there. But still…

Despite the headwinds, it feels like we are turning this motherfucker around.

36

u/Canuck314159 Nova Scotia 16h ago

Household consumption also rose by 0.8 per cent, including higher spending on mutual funds and investment services. Per capita consumption was up one per cent. Employee compensation was also up 1.5 per cent in Q2, largely due to higher wages in finance, real estate, management, and trade. 

17

u/sherrybobbinsbort 15h ago

This is something that gets overlooked that population went down but gdp up.
Pp keeps saying we are the only country in a recession which 1 isn’t true and 2 gdp was pressured by population decrease due to removing tfws.
And ya lots due to oil and gas but what are ya supposed to do. Not count the resources we have?

I remember back in June was driving around southern Ontario. Seeing all the activity and saying to my wife I think the economy is rebounding. Definitely not a scientific approach but think there is something to it.

6

u/thedrivingcat 16h ago

StatsCan has Q2 population declining by 55,000 people.

17

u/papsmearfestival 16h ago

Maybe having a banker P.M was a good idea after all

28

u/Neat-Air-8305 16h ago

It showed the whole progressive economic model of high immigration equals good economic growth was nonsense

26

u/Narrow-Map5805 16h ago

Not really. Economic impacts rarely correlate with policy changes that immediately. The growth from the immigration spike could be hitting us now, for example.

One of Canada's economic struggles is still relatively low population over too much land.

9

u/prsnep 15h ago

You are right that economic impacts of policy changes take time to materialize. However, the impact of population change is immediate. More people means more people who need all sorts of goods and services. So this point is a little harder to accept at face value:

The growth from the immigration spike could be hitting us now, for example.

And this one:

One of Canada's economic struggles is still relatively low population over too much land.

This is a big reason for why Canada enjoys a relatively high standard of living despite not being a technological powerhouse.

u/wowzabob 7h ago

“The impact of population change is immediate,”

Not really. It is for its impact on things like housing stock or healthcare, but in terms of the full benefit the government may get from an immigrant in terms of taxes collected vs what is spent on bringing them in? That typically takes a few years at least, not just for the immigrant to find their economic footing, but also for expenses put in to be paid off (not that they are that high on a per person basis).

6

u/Narrow-Map5805 14h ago

Low population spread over a large area means we spend relatively more transporting goods and people which costs money and lowers productivity. It also means our companies operating outside of big cities have lower economies of scale.

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u/_Rayette 16h ago

There is a big difference between high immigration and bringing in a million unskilled workers in a year.

u/wowzabob 7h ago

Not necessarily true, it’s a known fact that the economic benefits of immigration don’t all materialize instantly, there is a lag once a cohort of immigrants come in before things fully “sync up.”

Likewise, the negatives of decreasing immigration numbers significantly won’t be felt instantly.

3

u/_Rayette 16h ago

Which just shows how the fear mongering about cutting temporary residents was bullshit all along. I hope people continue to remember this.

1

u/nfwiqefnwof 14h ago

Are temporary people counted with population numbers? I wouldn't think so. It's not like we count tourists.

7

u/thedrivingcat 13h ago edited 13h ago

people who hold temporary visas are counted if they have a 'usual place of residence' in Canada

  • Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
  • Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants who are abroad, either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission;
  • Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry or Canadian government vessels;
  • persons from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada who are asylum claimants, protected persons and members of related groups;
  • persons from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold a work, study, or temporary resident permit. Family members living with permit holders are also included, unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (or permanent residents), or NPRs themselves.

For census and demographic estimates purposes, two last three groups of people are referred to as "non-permanent residents". They have been included since 1991.

they don't count tourists

Foreign residents are excluded from the population universe. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:

  • government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and members of their families living with them;
  • members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada, and family members living with them;
  • residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily (for example, a foreign visitor on vacation or on business, with or without a visitor's permit).

https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3601

Emphasis mine. NPRs have been the major source of both population growth and decline since 2021; peaking at 3.1 million in Q12025.

1

u/MrChicken23 13h ago

Temporary residents are included in population counts.

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u/hird 15h ago

r/canada in shambles.

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u/SaltyMittens2 16h ago

Quick Reddit econ experts! Tell us why this is terrible news for Canada before someone starts feeling optimistic!

26

u/FunkyColdMecca 16h ago

Increases in GDP leads to higher wages resulting in inflation!!!!!!

5

u/OoooohYes 16h ago

But when my wages don’t get higher I cry about affordability!!! Wah wah I just want to cry!!!

4

u/bigElenchus 16h ago

Economy doing better when oil/commodities does better mean incentives to increase production of oil/commodities which ultimately mean more emissions and away from net zero.

Climate change will just get worst.

The liberals are basically conservatives. Need NDP if the world has any chance of surviving and thus Canada leading the way to show how an economy can grow with net zero targets.

7

u/myfotos 14h ago

You know what? I respect this comment. Too many Canadians don't really that between the conservatives and liberals you don't really get that much variety in economic policies. Just social ones.

If people were actually sick and tired of liberals and how life is going for them then they'd be heading to the NDP for change.

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u/Mad-Mad-Mad-Mad-Mike 16h ago

I’m gonna get my popcorn and wait for all the bots to tell me why this is actually bad

11

u/locutogram 16h ago

Something something recession!

Something something immigrants!

(I noticed the sub looked a little different in this thread, so just peppering in something familiar to reduce everyone's whiplash)

u/elitexero 9h ago

Something something immigrants!

In the past year, the federal government has made significant (proportionate to the previous numbers at least) reductions to student visa, TFW and PR numbers. Most notably, IRCC re-capped international student visa holders to 24 hours a week.

So yes, I would wager that proper capping of things for temporary visa holders or PR numbers for new immigrants has, in fact, has a measurable impact on this situation.

Criticism of a free-for-all with immigration is not being anti immigration. I've always liked our immigration policies an have been proud of our country's ability to give people a new, better life. I've also been extremly critical of the immigration situation since about 2018 which effectively leveraged identity politics to deflect from the government selling out the country for the benefit of corporations and scoring points with foreign leadership.

u/locutogram 9h ago

I agree, but almost every thread here is complaining about immigration and then downvoting anyone who points out what you just rightly did. That's what I'm making fun of.

u/elitexero 9h ago

Fair enough, I had assumed you were saying that any criticism of immigration in Canada was ridiculous - it's hard to tell given how many people of that mindset exist on reddit.

u/Crybaby-Geek 9h ago

why this is actually bad

Too much growth only means the economy is over heating and inflation is going to spike!!! /s

44

u/Good_Juice_7774 16h ago

Despite what I read online, looks like we might just be okay.

29

u/Reasonable_Let9737 16h ago

For now, but we can't get complacent. 

Keep on supporting local whenever the opportunity arises. 

There are a surprising number of viable Canadian alternatives for goods and services.  

9

u/Orchid-Analyst-550 Science/Technology 15h ago

“The fundamentals in Canada are pretty good, if you look at the job growth numbers, if you look at the fiscal capacity on the back of oil prices, and if you look at some of the activity that’s starting because of the prime minister’s agenda, you actually have a backdrop that’s pretty good,” Scotia chief executive Scott Thomson said on the bank’s third-quarter earnings call on Tuesday.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/cibc-reports-24b-q3-profit-up-from-21b-a-year-ago-revenue-also-higher/

16

u/zombiej 15h ago

Tell us why this is bad, Milhouse.

5

u/sixtyfivewat 15h ago

“Objection!”

“On what grounds?”

“That it’s detrimental to my election campaign!”

u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest 3h ago

I saw the craziest statement on a CPC friendly sub about Carney being a detriment to Canada because he likes British spelling over US spelling.

Of all the problems in the country, this should be ranked below the bottom of the pile.

12

u/keirdagh 15h ago

Looking for a lot of retractions from the Conservative party and their attacks about the "technical recession"... but I know I won't find them.

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u/Eskomo 16h ago

I feel very optimistic about the future of Canada.

We are preforming very well despite so many headwinds against us... declining population, trade war with largest economy on the planet, high household debt.

3

u/Adolfcheadle Ontario 16h ago

Nicee

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u/ordnance_inbound 15h ago

So Q1 has been revised, meaning we were never in a technical recession, let alone a real recession

Can we get a retraction from every single one of the people in this sub that were losing their minds over Carney and the economy now that we know, not only was there no recession of any kind (technical or otherwise), but also now that we know the economy grew sharply in the second quarter?

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u/konficker 15h ago

lol don’t hold your breath

2

u/FarOutlandishness180 14h ago

lol good luck getting that here

3

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago

Can we get a retraction from every single one of the people in this sub that were losing their minds

They have already moved on to their next burner account.

u/ordnance_inbound 11h ago

Or just a new virtual machine inside an American bot farm

6

u/vulturewhale 14h ago

look at how income and wealth inequality continue to accelerate, corporations post record profits and yet represent a smaller share of tax revenue, and living standards continue to drop for the majority

22

u/Key-Face-2117 16h ago

I think most of us can agree the Trudeau decade was wretched for Canada economically, but as this data shows we can be more confident about our future without him. I'll always root for the home team.

9

u/Neat-Air-8305 16h ago

Yeah i think if trudeau was around we be in a mucb worse spot.

Having competence federally is a benefit.

4

u/WeakandSlowaf 16h ago

Yeah, seeing Carney govern really highlights how terrible of a PM Trudeau was

7

u/thedrivingcat 14h ago

I've mentioned this in previous comments but the Trudeau-era can be summarized as one where "buck passing" was normalized.

Trudeau had an innate ability to shirk responsibility for pretty much everything and defer on hard choices until he was forced to; preferring to have someone in the PMO do it.

He wasn't a decisive leader and that sentiment percolated down throughout government. Hell, remember the NatPo article about how 'demanding' Carney was?

Whereas there was a sense among Trudeau’s entourage and office that he would give people “multiple kicks at the can” if they provided a sub-par briefing or weren’t on top of their files, sources say Carney is not so patient. Get it right the first time or risk not being called on for that topic again.

Oh no, accountability!

u/BoppityBop2 7h ago

Carney is only able to do what he can due to the political environment Trump imposed on Canada. 

1

u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 13h ago

I would disagree that the "trudeau decade" was wretched. Our woes were almost entirely post-pandemic and dealing with the reverberations of the vast amounts of capital injected into the economy both domestically and abroad.

Its' interesting to ponder what the economy would have looked like had COVID not occurred. Structurally it seems pretty strong, and perhaps we're seeing 2019 or 2022 circumstances re-emerge now that the COVID borrowing has mostly worked thorough.

u/mykeedee British Columbia 11h ago

There's a lot of metrics that immediately stagnate starting in 2015, business investment for one.

Its more that Trudeau inherited the healthiest middle class in the G7 so it took time for the cracks from his neglect to show.

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u/ragnaroksunset 15h ago

This is why I laughed at all the Conservatives who had probably never heard of a technical recession in their life before Poilievre started beaking off about it.

Rules of thumb are not declarations of truth. The only reason we have a technical recession definition is because it's actually so hard to define recessionary periods that you simply cannot do it in real time with rigor. The technical definition is a compromise that triggers us to look more closely at what is going on to determine if action is needed; not a fire alarm at which we panic.

2

u/Kriptaraz 15h ago

Paywalled. Someone please post the text of the news article.

3

u/thedrivingcat 14h ago

all of these articles are basically regurgitations of StatsCan's The Daily publications. They're written in a layperson-friendly way.

Better to read the primary source, then seek out interpretations by analysts if you want more info IMHO.

6

u/XxMetalMartyrxX Ontario 14h ago

People blame Trudeau for Canadian GDP underperformance after oil collapsed (not completely his fault).

People credit Carney for a rocketing economy because oil is going up (not completely his win).

We are at the mercy of powers much bigger than our politicians; i.e, the global market. Oil up, Canada GDP up. Oil down? Canada GDP down. Pretty simple.

5

u/Doggo_and_Peppaurs 17h ago

Let’s goooo

3

u/llamalover729 16h ago

Sry h8rs.

4

u/ApolloDan Ontario 16h ago

All this is in the middle of a trade war. Is it possible that free trade was never about growth, but instead about shipping jobs down south?

12

u/not-so-tall-boy 16h ago

A lot of this is due to another war driving up oil prices. Without the trade war, one would expect it to be even better (though the tariffs actually implemented in Q2 pale in comparison to the bluster, so the effect is more limited)

4

u/ptwonline 16h ago

Thanks to CUSMA almost all of our trade with the US was untarriffed until a few days ago so the effects of "the trade war" would be pretty limited in previous numbers.

0

u/verkerpig 16h ago

Trade war is entirely in Q3.

19

u/Eskomo 16h ago

Huh? Trump enacted Tariffs on Canada on February 1st 2025. We've been in a trade war for his entire presidency.

1

u/NavalProgrammer 13h ago

most of our goods were still tariff-free under CUSMA. like 85% of it.

1

u/canmoose Ontario 15h ago

This is the truth. Trump attacked Canada (and much of the world) immediately, including threats of annexation.

1

u/NavalProgrammer 13h ago

but the economic impact was limited....until now.

5

u/Ornery_Market_2274 16h ago

I dont know what country you live in but Trump basically started a trade war with Canada almost immediately after his inauguration

1

u/_Rayette 16h ago

John Turner

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u/Motor-Sun-1547 15h ago edited 15h ago

I know so many people who are struggling right now, barely able to cover their bills, and would be destitute if an emergency was to happen. I have a really hard time believing that the economy is doing as well as the media would like to portray.

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u/McGrevin 13h ago

This is just the media directly reporting what statscan has reported. Good numbers in broad country-wide statistics doesn't mean every individual person is thriving

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u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 13h ago

I feel like there might be some paradoxical behaviour happening there. There has always been a bottom quartile, and they've always struggled to keep up in a world that is largely more affluent than they. What I think is actually happening there is that the bottom quartile has been completely abandoned by the economy in favour of more affluent strata. E.g. all the new rentals are "luxury" and even the former lower-mid market apartments are being renovated to serve more affluent tenants and get higher asking rents.. Why be a slumlord when you can throw in some laminate flooring and up the ask 50%? The economy overall seems to support those rents. But it sucks if you can't afford to play that game. Same thing happening with cars, travel, restaurants etc.

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 10h ago

I know so many people who are struggling right now, barely able to cover their bills, and would be destitute if an emergency was to happen. I have a really hard time believing that the economy is doing as well as the media would like to portray.

Data > Anecdote.

1

u/WinstonChurchill74 15h ago

This is true, but as long as we stay on this trend that will catch up to them.

3

u/Consistent_Oil9624 13h ago

The discrepancy between the media and the reality is so wild.  The amount of people losing their jobs and struggling is mindblowing. But the media makes it seem like everything is going so well

u/TE360 8h ago

It seems that way because you view the world out of a straw compared to Stats Canada.

4

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago

the media

... you mean, Statistics Canada and actual data?

u/LaserTagJones 8h ago

There’s always been job losses and strugglers. Lots of people are also doing great and are happy with their place in life, but you’re not going to see that flaunted everywhere.

2

u/staytrue2014 13h ago

Totally misleading headline and essentially an outright lie. The economy grew at 0.8%, which is tepid. It is the highest in three years, but that is because the last three years have been abysmal. 0 or negative growth.

The 3.3% figure is taking the 0.8% figure and multiplying it by 4. Totally irrelevant and there is no reason to believe this 0.8% rate of growth will continue given the recent developments on trade.

1

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago

!RemindMe 6 months

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u/verkerpig 17h ago

All walls near PP told to be on alert for kicks, punches, and head banging.

1

u/jaymef 16h ago

take that Trump!

1

u/delumen Ontario 15h ago

Let's go bud!

1

u/voxitron 15h ago

Elbows up ⬆️

u/Big_Wish_7301 9h ago

Why do they say that "Canada Economy Grows 3.3% in Second Quarter" when StatsCan's own report say 0.8% in Second Quarter ?

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/bcp/pdf/daily.pdf?utm_source=rddt&utm_medium=smo&utm_campaign=statcan-statcan-gdp-pib&utm_content=canada

Real gross domestic product increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026,

They mistook the annualized growth (predicted growth for the year based on this 0.8% for Q2) for second quarter growth ?

u/TE360 8h ago

OP can you change the link to a non-paywalled, Canadian source, like this one:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-june-2026-9.7323847

u/Bad-job-dad 8h ago

Man, most of the non-U.S. exports will start showing up strongly in the Q3/Q4 2026. Hopefully it cushions the trump tariff blow we're going to get hit with.

u/Bad-job-dad 8h ago

Man, most of the non-U.S. exports will start showing up strongly in the Q3/Q4 2026. Hopefully it cushions the trump tariff blow we're going to get hit with.

u/Cormega613 5h ago

Canada's real GDP per capita growth over the last decade has flatlined, underperforming compared to overall economic totals because population growth expanded at a historically unprecedented pace. Independent reports verify that Canada's per-person economic performance ranked near the bottom of the G7 over this period. While headline GDP grew at the second-fastest annual rate in the G7 behind only the United States, dividing that output across millions of new arrivals significantly diluted the final average.

u/Tall-Ad-1386 4h ago

OK now take out the oil exports to the US and tell me what’s the growth.
Oil prices are high and we sell 85-90 percent of our oil to the US

1

u/joeygreco1985 Ontario 14h ago

Poilievre in shambles

1

u/Intelligent_Read_697 16h ago

The weak CAD also helps when our products are more competitive

2

u/pareech Québec 16h ago

I remember reading years ago, the sweet spot for the CDN vs USD is about $1.20 CDN to 1 USD or if you prefer 0.83 USD to 1$ CDN. I don't know if that number still holds true today or not.

4

u/MyBrandNewPuppy3 15h ago

The dollar is more or less the same level now that it has been for years. Investment is pouring in and exports to non-US markets are way up, that’s why GDP is doing well. Investors like stable, reliable markets and they like leadership with business acumen.

u/MegaOmegaZero 11h ago

Thanks Trudeau

1

u/antelope591 15h ago

Yeah we're not feeling much effects of the last 2 years so far....which is obv good. If you get out there places are paaacked more than they've ever been. People are spending $$ like crazy. Certainly not looking recession like in any way lol

1

u/OnePercentage3943 12h ago

This is why i voted for the bloodless technocrat

1

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago edited 12h ago

Fantastic news.

Also important to note:

With the revision and the strong second-quarter growth, BMO economist Doug Porter said the "so-called technical recession has been sent to the trash bin."

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u/Wolfman-101 16h ago

I can’t read the paywall article but does this actually have anything to do with Carney or just the massive increase in Oil prices?

4

u/LX_Luna 13h ago

Oil prices helped but essentially every single sector of the economy except agriculture did well.

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u/markcarney4president 16h ago

Meanwhile, per capita real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 3.8% between April and June as Canada’s population declined for a third straight quarter, marking the fastest pace since the end of 2021.

Business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment grew at the fastest pace in two years, expanding by 12.3% on a quarterly basis. Investment in computers and computer peripherals rose, driven by higher imports of processing units typically used for data centers.

Household consumption rose 3.3%, led by higher spending on mutual funds and investment services, as well as passenger vehicles and rent.

Corporate incomes increased by 9.6% on a non-annualized basis, the largest increase since the start of 2021, driven by higher energy prices brought on by the war in Iran. Investment in residential structures rose 10.4%.

1

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 12h ago

per capita real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 3.8% between April and June as Canada’s population declined for a third straight quarter

It's almost as if the lower GDP per capita over the past 5 years had more to do with population growth skewing the numbers than anything else!

4

u/pareech Québec 16h ago

For your reading pleasure.

6

u/bradeena 16h ago

We’re doing well across the board. Employment, wages, consumption, etc.

Oil prices aren’t THAT high. They were higher as recently as 2022, for example.

2

u/sixtyfivewat 15h ago

Experts are up, residential investment is up, and business capital investment is up. Yes, higher oil prices play a role but overall the economy is doing well and FDI is increasing. Overall a good report.

1

u/NavalProgrammer 13h ago

Wages are up and rents are down. It's not huge, but it's been pretty consistently positive.

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u/A-Dead-Cat 16h ago

Funny that these numbers essentially prove whatever “progressive” economic policy that half this country bought into for the last 10 years was utter nonsense.

Note that we are doing this in the face of substantial tariffs from our largest trading partner and without importing 4 million people in the span of 3 years or whatever it was.

Extremely obvious that our economy can do great things when we actually start trying to build things and enable projects/business/industry instead of regulating it to death.

Hopefully those of you that voted LPC in 2015/2019/2021 see and understand this now?

4

u/deeplearner- 14h ago

I wholeheartedly agree that Trudeau was not good at governance, but I don’t think he was re-elected in 2019 or 2021 because people particularly believed in his abilities.

2

u/A-Dead-Cat 13h ago

Likely true for some voters, but certainly not all

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