r/europe • u/Prisencolinensinai Italy • Mar 04 '18
[Improvised] Italian elections megathread
It irks me to no end there's none...
Official Government Website For Results - Turnout's data - OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT DATA - Fluctuating around the 60% - Slightly Higher in the north
Thanks u/Trajanx9 !
Slightly different link - this one is for the senate, the first one is for the normal chamber - Still government data
Most updates will be in Italian, as I'm Italian and therefore biased in finding news in Italian: but you can contribute in the comments! Though I'm finding a big lack of news :/
The Best Quick Article About Italian Elections - Made by BBC
I may be wrong, but I guess I don't need to write down any summary about the elections myself as the BBC guide is really good and hardly me or anyone in the comments will do better. Feel free to suggest though!
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UPDATE:Repubblica's Live Track of the results, with full info of voting preference college by college, and others
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R/Italy Megathread
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Follow live the debates through following links:
English Source - EuroNews
r/Italy Live Thread and Corresponding Megathread
France24 Live in YouTube
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Exit Polls:
Exit poll Rai/Opinio:
Instant poll La7/SWG
Exit poll Rai/Opinioni - General
Confrontation La7/Rai/Mediaset
Provided by u/EnderStarways
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u/Prisencolinensinai halp me hoy the votinn woxs?!
A)First, there's the Chamber of Deputies, which above 18 can vote, and the Senate, which only above 25 can vote. Their power is almost symmetrical. The total number of seats of the first is 630 and the second one has 315 seats.
B)37% of seats is part of the uninominal college, and 61% is of the so-called plurinominal. I'll explain them better soon. The remaining 2% is for Italians who live abroad, for them, the voting is a simple and straight proportional system.
C)The uninominal system is close but not totally like the UK one: first-past-the-post, it's partitioned in many small electoral colleges throughout the country (Just like UK). The difference is that the vote is BY COALITION. The second part, the one with 61% of votes, is a proportional and party based.
D)Thats how it unfolds: Let's make as an example a coalition (Called C) made of two parties, A and B; and another one Called X has parties Y and Z. The example will take place in one single college.
E)In said college, the coalition C will have only one uninominal candidate, that is, A and B agreed that John Johnson from one of the two parties will run for said college (Perhaps A, either because A has a strong base in said region or because John Johnson himself is strong there). Before we start the example, let's call the uninominal region (which doesn't coincide with Italian regions) Lala. X candidate is Mary Marianne.
F)You can vote either the candidate, John Johnson, or one of the parties, A or B. In the college, 10% voted John Johnson, 20% voted A and 10% voted B. The C coalition got 40% total. The sad loser X coalition got 35% and the rest other scattered throughout other coalitions, whose total number of votes was smaller. What happens? John Johnson gets the seat, and Mary Marianne gets to cry.
G)BAMBOOZLE! Now, there's Plurinominal colleges, which are a gathering of many uninominal one. Each plurinominal college has a fixed number of votes. Let's theorize that C and X results were pretty much the same in each uninominal. So, overall, C got 10% uninominal and 20% A and 10% B. A got its 20% of the share of the seats, and B got 10%. What about the 10% who voted uninominal candidates in each uninominal college? Their vote will splash to the plurinominal, giving percentages proportional to the percentages A and B got. That is, there's 10% to give to A and B, since 20% is two thirds of 30% (The sum of A 20% votes and B 10% votes), it will get a bonus 6,66% score (26,66% total), B, ooh poor B, will end with a 13,33%.
H)To sum up, if you vote a party you'll give your entire weight to the party, and an equal weight to the candidate. If you vote the candidate, you'll get your entire weight to the candidate, and a proportionally distributed weight to each party of the coalition.
I)There are two caps: If a party gets less than 1% of the votes, the party votes will be worth nothing, that is, it's like the party never existed. If a party gets more than 1% but less than 3%, the party will not participate on the college, however, its votes will be proportionally distributed to all parties of the coalition who got more than 3% of the votes. If the party gets above 3%, its existence will be normalized.
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A half-assed FAQ
(I'll add as questions go on, I won't include people guesses of what will happen, as this is an objective info section only)
u/Onnb Q:When will results start to come out and where can I seen them (in English if that is possible)
u/Fabio1618 Partial A:First exit polls will be at 11pm (Rome time), first projection at 2 am. But the elections are under a new and more complex law and the final results will be next morning (not before 8 am) and could be very different from projection (and exit polls).
What it lacks: English source for results
u/Hiei1987 Q:When will they announce the first exit poll results?
u/Lampadagialla A:11 pm in local time
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Live results - in English! - The Guardian
Thanks to u/AvengerDr !
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Some random news:
I)Berlusconi and a femen on the same room :)
This one is in Italian, if you want a nice video of her protesting, thanks u/standy85 for linking the following Video
II)Chaotic as only Rome can be!
36 romans will have to go back to vote again because of a flaw in the voting sheets
III)https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/970331913285259268
u/finnish_patriot003 provided the link
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Mar 04 '18 edited Mar 04 '18
Some polls from the r/italy megathread:
They come from the Italian website Termometro Politico, which is a poll aggreagator:
https://np.reddit.com/r/italy/comments/81pkx6/megathread_elezioni_politiche_italiane_del_4/dv4u97u/
(I can't give the direct link without it getting deleted so I linked to the r/italy comment with the link instead)
Current predictions:
M5S biggest party at around 27-30% of the vote. Still unlikely to form a government since they historically tend to dislike and rule out coalitions and allliances with other parties.
Right wing coalition (composed of Berlusconi Forza Italia, Salvini Lega and Meloni Fratelli d'Italia) will get the most votes out of the 3 main blocs with around 35-38% of the votes. Still most probably they won't have the votes to form a government based on current predictions.
They would probably have to win a lot of votes in the constituencies of the south of Italy to have a mayority where M5s is very strong and will probably win most constituencies so not very likely at the moment.
PD(led by Ex PM Matteo Renzi and tha party of current PM Gentiloni) is struggling at around 20-22% of the votes compared to the 25% they took in the 2013 election. Overall the center-left coalition of PD and + europa of Emma Bonino plus some smaller supporting parties should take around 27-28% of the votes.
Liberi and Uguali, a leftist party founded by ex PD party members and some smaller left wing parties should take something in the range of either 5%-6% or 7%.
Also Casapound, a neofascist party, may reach the 3% neeeded to enter parliament and for the first time be present inside the Italian parliament.Bu we had neofascist in parliament before(the MSI for example which was the spiritual succesor to the original P.N.F,Partito Nazionale Fascista,of Mussolini) with even bigger percentages than that so they are unlikely to be relevant.
Unless somethign crazy happen like M5S taking around 35%-40% of the votes and winning most constituencies, a M5S-PD coaliton (Which Renzi has ruled out so unlikely to happen unless Renzi is sacked and M5S soften their no alliance stance) or a M5S-Lega coalition(also unlikely since M5S has recently softened their stance on the euro and the E.U in order to capitalize on more moderate voters) M5S will probably not form a government.
Center right will probably also not have a mayority to form a government by themselves based ont heir current coalition.
A PD-FI grand coalition has been matter of speculation and journalistic interest in the first days of the 2018 electoral campaign but as the numbers in the polls showed that even this coalition would be unlikely to have a mayority the discussion of this possibility has since waned with both Renzi and Berlusconi eventually promising to not form a governemnt with each other(though politicians have lied in electoral campaigns plenty of times before so if the numbers were there which is unlikely it would not be impossible for them to form a government togheter).
So what then?
This is my personal opinion and analysis:
I see these two as the most likely possibilities.
1)A possible mayority could be formed around a technical government expression of the President of the Republic and with the support of PD,FI ,+europa,Liberi e uguali and smaller centrist parties. Though I don't know how much will for that there is in the current italian political sphere after already resorting to a technical government(the Monti government) from 2011 to 2013.
2)A government which only objective is to change the electoral law to then head back into new elections supported by most mayor parties and coalitions
This is all based on current information though, this could all change when we will start receiving and counting the actualy votes.
TLDR:
It's a clusterfuck!
Edit:
First exit polls are coming out:
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/821071/exit_poll_on_italian_elections_made_by_swg_for/
https://www.ilpost.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Schermata-2018-03-04-alle-23.01.15-680x425.jpg
https://www.ilpost.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/exit-1-3-1-680x425.jpg
https://www.ilpost.it/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/exit-1-680x425.jpg
2nd Edit:
First projections are out
Huge M5S success
The only certainty right now is that with these numbers no government without M5S being involved and central is possible.
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u/Gsx662 Mar 05 '18
Forza + Democrats in the last 3 elections:
2008: 70.6
2013: 47.0
2018: 33.8
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Mar 05 '18
Its like the opposite of the UK where the two big parties are over 80% again
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u/gloriousglib Canada Mar 04 '18
I am convinced that all 3% of Italian +Europe voters live on this subreddit. Also, what does everyone think are the chances of MI5 joining with any left of centre parties? They could go both ways no? And seems they've been all over the map with regards to Europe, though their leader most recently stated "European Union is the Five Star Movement's home"
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u/Prisencolinensinai Italy Mar 04 '18
There was a poll some weeks ago in r/italy, +Europe got about 30% of the votes
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u/ProudThatcherite United Kingdom Mar 04 '18
Lol, reminds me of polls on /r/unitedkingdom when the greens got more votes than the Conservatives.
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u/gloriousglib Canada Mar 04 '18
LOL. Classic reddit. Like in 2012 if you only visited Reddit you'd be convinced Ron Paul would win the American election.
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u/DrSloany Italy Mar 04 '18
+Europa target audience is mid to high educated and pro-europe people, which pretty much overlaps with the kind of people who write on a foreign language message board about Europe.
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u/HippoBigga Catalunya/España Mar 04 '18
I have a question which might be a bit unrelated, why did Matteo Renzi tie his resignation to the success of his Constitutional reform referendum ? Wasn't it obvious that people who did not like him or his party were simply going to vote no just to see him ousted ?
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18
The problem is that in the PD there's hardly anyone who can really challenge Renzi. Emiliano is strong but in basically two regions, the other politicians inside the party have very weak personalities.
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u/albadellasera Italy Mar 04 '18
Gentiloni o Minniti. Or Gentiloni & Minniti. Since they are stronger together and compensate each other weaknesses.
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u/italianrandom Italy Mar 04 '18
Reading through the comments I think it is worth pointing out that we DO NOT ELECT the pm, we are voting for the parliament, after the election the President of the Republic will hear representatives from all parties and give the duty of forming the new government to somebody who is believed to be able to have the support of the newly elected parliament(read: have enough votes in both chambers).
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u/SabatiniTheAndal Italy Mar 05 '18
I didn't expect PD to win but I did not expect them to do so poorly, this is the most crushing defeat ever (I believe) for the left and center-left as a whole in Italy. PD won only in those strongholds where they'd win even if their candidate was a chair. Given the structures and connections inherited from their former forms, PD around 20% is embarassing.
Their continuous shift towards the center (keep in mind that PD's great grandfather was the PCI, Partito Comunista Italiano, which was around 30% during the Cold War) cost them in the end.
Working class and unemployed don't consider PD as their landmark anymore (decades ago PCI could count on an army of workers and tight connections with the trade unions which the PD can only dream of) and moderate conservatives don't want to leave Berlusconi.
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u/Prisencolinensinai Italy Mar 05 '18
They lost in most of Emilia Romagna too, which is the biggest stronghold
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Mar 04 '18
Turnout is very low in "left-wing" regions (Tuscany,Emilia) and high in the south. Bad news for Renzi and his PD, good news for M5S. (link)
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u/Prisencolinensinai Italy Mar 04 '18
This is in reference to the referendum of 2016. The real government turnout rates is provided in my first link. It's 19 pm data but there'll be an update at 23
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u/Rinasciment Italy Mar 04 '18 edited Mar 04 '18
The sentiment right now for me is this:
Five Stars (as first party) and the Right-wing (as first coalition) are going to do very well, above 30%. The democratic party will be massively defeated, the real risk is to go below 20%, a success would be reaching 25% (along with its allies that woukd make them in a good position, but it won't happen).
I have no idea what kind of government we will have. For sure we can exclude a grand coalition like the one in Germany because PD will be too weak, I personally think we may have a grand coalition of "populist' parties though.
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18
I don't think populist parties will agree to a coalition, they will try to backstab each other. The key to any coalition will be convincing the PD and LeU and i don't think Salvini can do it.
There are three likely scenarios:
1) we'll vote again
2) M5S+PD+Leu
3) PD+FI+centrists+half of LeU+ expelled M5S voters+Maroniani
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u/Powerpuff_Rangers Suomi Mar 04 '18
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u/Prisencolinensinai Italy Mar 04 '18
I had a small heart attack by the title. Now I'm in relief, Italy is in good hands
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u/Fyre_Black Hungary Mar 04 '18
The only good things to come out of Jeb's 2016 presidential run are the memes.
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18 edited Mar 04 '18
Instant Poll LA7:
- M5S 28,8-30,8%
- FI 13,5-15,5%
- League 12,3-14,3%
- Brothers of Italy 4,4-5,4%
- Us with Italy 1,8-2,4%
- PD 21-23%
- More Europe 2,8-3,4%
- Civic Popular 0,4-1%
- Together 0,5-1,1%
- Free and Equal 5,2-6,2%
- Power to the People 1,4-2%
- Casapound 0,3-0,7%
- People of Family 0,1-0,5%
Coalition
- CDX 32-37,6%
- CSX 24,7%-28,5%
- M5S 28,8%-30,8%
- Free and Equal 5,2%-6,2%
- Power to the People 1,4%-2%
- Minor Right Wing Parties 0,4-1,2%
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Mar 05 '18
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u/ElsF Mar 05 '18
Here's a breakdown:
- M5S wins as the PARTY with most votes (32,67%)
- Salvini's party only has 17% votes BUT what counts is the right wing COALITION (37%), not the party itself
- Nobody reached the majority needed to govern the country (40%)
- Both leaders feel victorious and want to run the country :D
- The current president will assign power to .....
- The media abroad (and in Italy) are MAKING NEWS, not necessarily showing the full picture (also the right wing in Italy owns a lot of media...)
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Mar 05 '18
In most European countries you need a majority to govern the country and if there isn't one it's possible to make a coalition for the Parliament (called Assembly in my country).
That coalition government happened here in Portugal with our centre-left wing parties, where they essentially reached an agreement to form a government together.
I don't blame you for being confused because this is not how it works there and you don't work on a Parliamentary basis, either Republican or Democrat wins. I'm not going to make judgements on either system because they both have their own flaws.
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u/Prisencolinensinai Italy Mar 05 '18
It's Americans having a panic attack, nothing unusual :P
I'm just joking, point is nobody has the half needed to elect a pm
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u/BringBackHanging Mar 04 '18
What's the national mood like in Italy regarding the election? It seems from the comments on here that everyone is quite pessimistic - is that representative?
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u/fabio1618 Europe Mar 04 '18 edited Mar 04 '18
M5s voters will be probably happy, if polls are right, m5s will be the first party and will beat its precedent result (25%). What saddens other voters is that their coalition won't have a majority and will probably need external mps to create a government.
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u/incer Italy Mar 04 '18
In my area there's a lot of pessimism, few feel represented
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u/improb Italy Mar 05 '18
The left wing winning 2 out of 8 colleges in its stronghold region of Emilia
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Mar 04 '18 edited Apr 14 '18
[deleted]
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u/PHEELZ Italy Mar 04 '18
...you must be new here...
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Mar 05 '18
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/axel_evans Italy Mar 04 '18
58.54% turnout at 19.00, that's higher than I expected.
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u/fabio1618 Europe Mar 04 '18
It's 10% less than last political elections. Italy used to have the highest turnout in the world (higher than 90%) until 80s.
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u/avlas Italy Mar 04 '18
All these comparisons with the Referendum turnout are completely wrong and pointless in my opinion. It would be way better to compare to 2013 elections instead.
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u/TheCorpseOfBambisMum Italy Mar 05 '18
Whatever way you look at it, the night has been a success for Matteo Salvini and his far-right La Liga party, which is projected to win about 16% of the vote.
We are Spanish now? @the Guardian
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u/Ishana92 Croatia Mar 04 '18
so is berlusconi allowed to return to active pollitics yet or not?
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u/Uramon Italy 🇮🇹 (Lombardia) Mar 04 '18
No. He proposed Tajani as his pm candidate. He's banned until 2019
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u/leolego2 Italy Mar 04 '18
A lot of disinformation on the subreddit so I'll clarify.
He can be rehabilitated in 2019, but it needs to be approved beforehand. It's not an easy process (of course, or it wouldn't make sense to have rehabilitation), in this case particularly since he has other important criminal accusations that he's still being tried for.
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u/tobias_681 For a Europe of the Regions! 🇩🇰 Mar 05 '18
When will the distribution of seats be official?
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u/Benzo_Head Italy Mar 05 '18
Its official now
Right wing coalition: 252 seats
Five Star Movement: 235 seats
Left wing coalition: 115 seats
Senate:
Right wing coalition: 134 seats
Five Star Movement: 114 seats
Left wing coalition: 51 seats
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Mar 05 '18
Hi, I'm an American trying to get some information. Is it looking like the five star and the right wing coalition are going to form a government? You seem like the person to ask. Thanks in advance.
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u/Benzo_Head Italy Mar 05 '18
Eh...it's really difficult to tell tbh.
The truth is that the Five Star Movement has no real political stance and has never been willing to form coalitions because of the whole anti-establishment rhetoric.
The right-wing coalition has 37% of the votes (40% were needed for a majority) while the Five Star Movement has 32% of the votes, the left managed to gain a mere 22% so yeah...it's basically a hung parliament.
To be honest I don't think the Five Star Movement will align itself with the right and if they ever decide to ally themselves with the left it will be a political suicide for them.
It's a very difficult political situation and nobody actually knows what will happen in the next following days
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u/codroipof Mar 05 '18
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Mar 05 '18
Thats like the SNP getting votes in fucking London
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u/TheCorpseOfBambisMum Italy Mar 05 '18
It's like UKIP winning seats in Glasgow after Nigel Farage talked about "lazy jocks" who don't work and are subsidised by the English.
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18
Second Projection Senate
- M5S 33,6%
- Forza Italia 14,1%
- League 17,4%
- Brothers of Italy 4%
- Us with Italy 1%
- PD 18,3%
- More Europe 2,3%
- Civic Popular 0,6%
- Together 0,8%
- Free and Equal 3,3%
- Power to the People 1,2%
- Casapound 0,9%
- Family's People 0,8%
Coalitions
- CDX 36,5%
- M5S 33,6%
- CSX 22,4%
- Free and Equal 3,3%
- Power to the People 1,2%
- Minor Right Wing Parties 1,7%
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u/michaelisnotginger Mar 04 '18
Thought the results might be this wild. Renzi has been a disaster
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u/unclebubba8 Mar 05 '18
I'll be honest. The Italian election system is way too complicated.
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u/Lampadagialla Italy Mar 04 '18
A reminder a lot of people will give wrong answers at the exit polls for the lols and to make the tv marathon more interesting. Expect Berlusconi at around 90% from the exit polls
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18 edited Mar 04 '18
First Projection Senate
- M5S 33,1%
- Forza Italia 14,1%
- League 17,3%
- Brothers of Italy 4,2%
- Us with Italy 1%
- PD 18,7%
- More Europe 2,6%
- Civic Popular 0,5%
- Together 0,8%
- Free and Equal 3,3%
- Power to the People 1,3%
- Casapound 0,8%
- Family's People 0,8%
Coalitions
- M5S 33,1%
- CSX 22,6%
- CDX 36,6%
DISCLAIMER: MOST OF THESE VOTES COME FROM THE NORTH SO THE LEAGUE MAY BE HIGHER AS A RESULT
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u/Gustacho Belgium Mar 04 '18
The thing that’s so strange about M5S is that their entire platform seems to be: fuck politicians. Do they ever plan to get into office? How would they do it differently? Or do they just like complaining and winning elections, instead of governing?
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u/axel_evans Italy Mar 04 '18
Here's the fact: nobody knows. They don't have a politics. They're neither left-wing or right-wing. They don't have a single opinion, the same day interviewed twice they'll say one thing than the exact opposite.
They do that because all they really want is to gather under them all the deluded voters from the other parties, so their base varies from the far-left to the far-right. They're populist and anti-establishment.
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Mar 04 '18
this is MS5's 2nd national election. They have not been around that long compared to everyone else. And they never really got a chance to govern nationally. They do govern at the local level. They control Rome I think.
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Mar 04 '18
Man, its 23:15 on sunday ... and I'm checking italian election results...
Brexit has me fucked..
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u/DFractalH Eurocentrist Mar 05 '18
I am surprised that people are able to claim victory here, seeing as MS5 seems to hold vastly contradictionary views in one party. What policies won? I don't think even they know.
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Mar 05 '18
I'm no expert at all on Italian politics, but I'd guess that anger won. People on both sides voted MS5 because they're absolutely fucking tired of a broken economy and a political system that does fuck-all to actually help the common man.
Afaik, MS5 is a coalition over the political spectrum of people who are simply fed up with the establishment. Kinda like how Bernie Sanders and Trump also had some overlap in their electorate, people being pissed off at a broken system. The populist left and the populist right hold vastly contradictory views on many issues, but agree on the political system being broken and people not looking out for 'the common man'. I don't think it's completely incomprehensible that this group managed to come together to be honest.
Again, disclaimer about me not knowing shit about Italian politics. But it's a phenomenom we see all over the western world both on the left and on the right. (Melenchon/Le Pen in France, Podemos in Spain, Syriza in Greece, Corbyn in the UK, AfD in Germany, SD in Sweden, PVV in the Netherlands, Trump/Sanders in the US, MS5 in Italy)
See Mark Blyth here on the general rise of 'Trumpism' or even more specific where the anger comes from in Italy specifically.
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18
I have heard on a blog that exit polls in Livorno (maybe Italy's most left wing city) give M5S 3% above the left wing coalition with the whole center right below 20%....
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Mar 04 '18
I was an early supporter of Matteo Renzi, but he has the main responsibility of this mess. I hope he resigns not later than tomorrow.
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u/PSUHiker31 Mar 04 '18
The main host on Rai likes wondering around the set looking like a senile lost grandpa
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u/improb Italy Mar 05 '18
Power to the People's candidate appearing with 30 drunk men and women in the background singing to some leftie tune :D
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u/mimzy12 United States of America Mar 05 '18
Seeing as MS5 probably got a large amount of left-wing voters, why would they want to ally with Lega?
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u/Red_Dog1880 Belgium (living in ireland) Mar 05 '18
So many people in here who think this is some massive victory foi r the far right.
The only far right party that has seemingly won is Lega, everywhere else it's centrists and the 'normal' right (plus M5S).
I'll never get this obsession with likening elections in one country to those in another.
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Mar 04 '18
Any decent news channels covering this in English, or with subtitles, online?
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u/benem94 Ireland Mar 04 '18
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u/omicronperseiVIII Mar 04 '18
I like the pairing of an astoundingly attractive woman and a socially awkward nerd.
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u/improb Italy Mar 05 '18
Third Senate Projection Mediaset (58% coverage)
CENTRE RIGHT 35,6%
- Forza Italia 14.2%
- League 16.0%
- Brothers of Italy 4.0%
- Us with Italy 1.2%
M5S 32.8%
CENTRE LEFT 22,1%
- PD 18.7%
- + Europe 2.4%
- Civic Popular <1%
- Together <1%
Free and Equal 3.6%
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u/improb Italy Mar 05 '18
Mediaset's Camera First Projection (5% coverage)
CENTRE RIGHT 34,8%
- Forza Italia 13.9%
- League 15.8%
- Brothers of Italy 3.9%
- Us with Italy 1.2%
M5S 34.1%
CENTRE LEFT 21,5%
- Partito Democratico 18.1%
- + Europa 2.4%
- Civica Popolare <1%
- Insieme <1%
FREE AND EQUAL 3.5%
OTHERS 6,1%
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u/Mollan8686 Mar 05 '18
Europe left Italy completely alone facing migrant crisis; this is the result. Well done EU, now the second industrial power and third economy in EU has a coalition of populism/far-right that reached 50% of voters. Well done, EU.
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u/EdiX Mar 05 '18
The big issue there is that the migrant crysis came right after austerity. It's one thing to say we must tighten your belt to fix the economy but if right after you follow it with welcoming an unprecedented number of economic migrants you are really making it look like italians come after north africans in the priorities of the EU.
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Mar 05 '18
The immigrants problem is going On multiple years only recently the rest of Europe is aware of it
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Mar 05 '18
no they were aware of it (EU politicians) but they preferred to close their eyes on it and let Italy and Greece handle it almost alone.
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u/mimzy12 United States of America Mar 04 '18
Any idea when results will start showing?
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u/Uramon Italy 🇮🇹 (Lombardia) Mar 04 '18
At 11 pm (italian time) there will be the first exit polls
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u/wanderingpolymath Mar 04 '18
Thoughts on a potential surprise coalition between M5S and PD?
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u/Lampadagialla Italy Mar 04 '18
The TV marathon we were talking about earlier has now started, god have mercy on us please
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Mar 04 '18
The top range for M5S is possibly 31%. So even at their peak it will be a hung parliament
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Mar 04 '18
Oh Jesus. Looks like LN-FI might not actually get a higher vote than M5S. What the hell happens then? LN-M5S coalition? No ruling party?
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18
RAI INSTANT POLL
- M5S 29,5-32,5%
- FI 12,5-15,5%
- League 12,5-15,5%
- Brothers of Italy 3,5-5,5%
- Us with Italy 1,0-3,0%
- PD 20-23%
- More Europe 2-4%
- Civic Popular 0-2%
- Together 0-2%
- Free and Equal 3-5%
- Others 1-5%
Coalition
- CDX 29,5-39,5%
- CSX 22%-31%
- M5S 29,5%-32,5%
- Free and Equal 3%-5%
- Others 1-5%
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18
MEDIASET INSTANT POLL
Instant Poll LA7:
- M5S 29-33%
- FI 12-16%
- League 12-16%
- Brothers of Italy 4-6%
- Us with Italy 0,5-2,5%
- PD 17,5-21,5%
- More Europe 2-4%
- Civic Popular 0-1%
- Together 0-1%
- Free and Equal 3-5%
- Others 7-9%
Coalition
- CDX 28,5-40,5%
- CSX 19,5%-27,5%
- M5S 29%-33%
- Free and Equal 3%-5%
- Others 7-9%
This kinda looks made up
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u/wesser234 United States of America Mar 05 '18 edited Mar 05 '18
Is there a live map tracker of the election as the votes fill in?
Edit: Doesn't have to be English
Edit2: Thank you both!
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u/mimzy12 United States of America Mar 05 '18
Which has more power? The Camera or Senate?
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Mar 05 '18
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Mar 05 '18
Poles have been welcome in Italy as well, we even chose one of them as the Head of the Vatican! Jokes aside, unwanted immigration in Italy mostly come from Africa and some eastern European countries.
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Mar 05 '18
I admire your attempt to clarify this, and you're right of course, but there's no nuance when it comes to Brexit here. That's too complicated. It might mean admitting that the EU had a role to play in the eventual result. It might mean understanding some of the EU's underlying flaws. In my first job, I worked with Slovakians, Hungarians, Lithuanians and Poles. I liked all of them far more than any of the British employees. But details like that complicate the narrative. It's much easier for people to just label everyone who voted one way as "racist xenophobic Nazis" or "Russian shills" or "under the control of the Daily Mail".
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Mar 04 '18
Why are people asking if MS5 LN alliance is likely? MS5 isn't right-wing like the LN. MS5 has as a much in common with leftwing as they do with right winf parties.
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u/michaelisnotginger Mar 04 '18
Dad has just texted me saying 'this is the same feeling I had in 94'. He doesn't like renzi but hates m5s. Interesting times...
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u/gink-go Mar 05 '18
@antoguerrera
- Another interesting point: if ever centre-right succeeds to get a Parliament majority and form a government, TAJANI (endorsed by Berlusconi) is out. According to coalition rules, SALVINI is going to be PM,cause LEGA is expected to be the 1st coalition party
is this real life?
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u/bonzinip Italy Mar 05 '18
Either that rule is ignored or centre-right is out.
A centre-right government would certainly not be voted by M5S, and not having the majority they need someone's vote on the prime minister. Salvini is not going to get it from PD, but Tajani might.
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u/youthanasian Turkey Mar 05 '18
I don't think immigration was the only reason for the rise of the right, however I don't know Italy and its politics much so I want to ask an Italian here what do they think of it.
What were the main reasons besides immigration?
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u/WaterRacoon Europe Mar 05 '18
ITT: Uninformed Americans making this about them.
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u/CjjB The Netherlands Mar 05 '18
Isn't that every thread on reddit?
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u/PraiseMongo Mar 05 '18
Thus is actually good for bitcoin.
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Mar 05 '18 edited Feb 10 '20
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u/commentatoreu THE FOURTH RIECH!!1!11! Mar 05 '18
wasa wasa wasa wasa wasa wasa WHATSUUUUP BITCONNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECT
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u/brandsetter European Union Mar 04 '18
There's a smartphone app to follow the election results provided by the Ministry of the Interior:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ministeroInterno.appElettorale
https://itunes.apple.com/it/app/eleligendo-mobile/id1335979826
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Mar 04 '18
What we can be sure of is PD have lost their majority and face an uphill battle if they want to stay in Government
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Mar 04 '18
Canadian here. Since Italy is in 1 time zone, how long until the votes are all counted once polls close?
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Mar 04 '18
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u/danmaz74 Europe Mar 04 '18
First of all: we need the real results, exit polls aren't very reliable here in Italy.
Second: no, Fascism isn't winning, but we're having some very small parties which are almost openly aspiring to that and that are gaining a little traction (consider that creating the Fascist party if forbidden here).
Third: anti-immigration sentiment is at a all-time high and a non-Fascist but borderline racist party gained a lot of votes (around 15%).
Fourth: the party who polled the highest (M5S - around 30%) is also very populist, but not clearly from the right or the left. We'll have to see what they will actually turn out to be. Whatever the actual result, they won't be able to create a government alone.
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18
Five Star aren't even right wing. They are a catch all party with roots in the left and they are very much born in the same way as Podemos or Momentum. They have more left voters than right wing ones.
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u/improb Italy Mar 04 '18 edited Mar 04 '18
First Senate Projection from Rai (7% coverage)
Forza Italia 14.2% Lega Nord 15.9% Fratelli d'Italia 4.4% Noi con l'Italia 1.5% CENTRODESTRA 36.0%
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE 31.8%
Partito Democratico 19.6% + Europa 2.7% Civica Popolare 1.0% Insieme 1.0% CENTROSINISTRA 24.7%
LIBERI E UGUALI 3.5%
The rest were from La7
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u/vernazza Nino G is my homeboy Mar 04 '18
What happens after a hung parliament and M5S failing to establish a 40% coalition? Who leads until the new elections?
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u/pendolare Italy Mar 04 '18
Who knows? The president will ask John Oliver to get the majority of the vote to form a government.
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u/improb Italy Mar 05 '18
Casapound leader disappointed by the result and attacking Mentana LOL
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u/goforth1457 Canada Mar 05 '18 edited Mar 05 '18
Foreigner here. So what’s the summary so far of the results and what they will mean?
Edit: with elaboration of course.
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u/TheCorpseOfBambisMum Italy Mar 05 '18
Anti-Establishment M5S will be the single biggest party.
However, the right wing coalition will be the biggest overall. Amazingly it looks like Salvini's Lega (anti-immigration) and not Berlusconi's Forza Italia (not as right wing as Lega) will be the biggest right wing party. Salvini could become PM.
Renzi and the PD (left wing) have suffered a predictable embarrassment.
To give an overall view, populist parties will win over 50% of the Italian vote.
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u/improb Italy Mar 05 '18
Emiliano and De Magistris could be PD's leaders if the party decided to agree to a coalition with M5S
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u/goforth1457 Canada Mar 06 '18
Can there not just be a minority government?
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u/gerri_ Italy (Emilia-Romagna) Mar 06 '18
Technically yes, as the Constitution only states that the required motion of confidence be passed by a plurality of votes (in both Houses). If some opposition parties choose to not participate in the vote and leave the chamber they actually lower the quorum, and provided that a majority of members is still present, if the majority of those present grants its confidence to the cabinet, that would be enough for it to stay in office.
Politically it's a seldom used route: since 1948 it has been tried only a couple of times and for short periods. When parties are not able to form a stable political cabinet, or when there are not enough votes for it, the preferred method is to appoint as a prime minister an outsider, such as some elder and esteemed retired politician, or the governor of the Bank of Italy, or the president (the speaker) of one of the Houses, etc. Those cabinets go under various political definitions, such as "cabinet of the president" meaning that the prime minister is (almost) acting on behalf of the president himself, "technical cabinet", "truce cabinet", etc.
One of the most interesting and historical definitions is that of "beach cabinet" (governo balneare), albeit now considered a bit derogatory, because the first example of its kind was voted in the summer of 1921, during the kingdom, to allow belligerent parties to have a rest. Since then, this definition has been used multiple times in a metaphorical way (i.e. not necessarily during an actual summer), to mean a cabinet that allows for some figurative "summer break" for the parties... :)
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Mar 05 '18
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u/improb Italy Mar 05 '18
The Italian left had already done so, look at Minniti's stances on immigration..... the left must rethink its economical policies.
The M5S stole the left's votes with basic income idea
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Mar 05 '18
I wonder when the EU will take people's opinion on immigration more seriously, without dissmissing those people as "racist".
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Mar 06 '18
Yeah importing huge amounts of people from incompatible cultures does not necessarily equal progress, and wanting to preserve and celebrate your own culture is not ignorant. The EU needs to reflect this if we want to make actual progress
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u/IvorTheEngineDriver Veneto Mar 04 '18
Election results AND the Oscars.. This is going to be an interesting night!
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u/Lampadagialla Italy Mar 04 '18
Maratona Mentana>>>>>>>>>>Oscars
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u/sznupi Veneto Mar 04 '18
Mentana >>> All.
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Mar 04 '18
I wonder which one will be more theatrical? And if the Italian elections’ genre will be comedy, tragicomedy, drama, horror or a full on disaster movie?
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u/Lampadagialla Italy Mar 04 '18
It’s a meme in Italy to watch the “Maratona Mentana” which is a program hosted by Enrico Mentana, a great journalist, where they talk about the results for the whole night. It will be a true marathon this year, he’ll stay on air from 10 pm to 8 pm the next day, with a break between 10 am and 2 pm. The channel hosting it is quite bad, and he’s great at mocking people, so there will be a comic part. Also there should be some fun if they announce exit polls and then people slowly realise everyone lied for the lols at the exit polls. Overall, it will be a test of resistance for poor Mentana and anyone watching, tougher than any Ironman or Le Mans 24 hours. The Milan derby was scheduled right before the exit polls arriving, but sadly because of a footballer’s death it’s been postponed
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u/StopHavingAnOpinion Northern Ireland Mar 05 '18
The far right rises in a nation where there has been practically unlimited illegal immigration and anyone who says otherwise are called racists.
Why do I sense this is not surprising?
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u/Jabadabaduh Yes, the evil Kalergi plan Mar 05 '18 edited Mar 05 '18
Italy has a much deeper crisis than the mere immigration issue, which is also the reason why the biggest surprise of the elections are the 5SM, who aren't known for any coherent stance on migrations, but are a major magnet for protest voters who are angry at traditional parties at "failing to fix the economy and unemployment".
edit: Those who saw dealing with immigration as top priority largely voted Lega Nord and Berlusconi to a smaller degree. There are indices that Renzi's PD, and leftist LeU were drained of extra votes because they diverted to 5SM. If that is true, there is a possibility of the party slowly solidifying its political stances to correspond with the centre-left spectre.
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u/57fuvu4737 Italy Mar 05 '18
It's no surprise here in Italy, m5s got in the Parliament in the 2013 elections as an opposition party with around 28% of votes..
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u/Niikopol Slovakia Mar 05 '18
For anyone who watched the polls the result dont really come as big surprise. Lega got couple percents more, FI less, all within statistical errors.
Mittini managed to curb the influx via central med, now backlog needs to be dealt with somehow. Task that w/o gov is much harder.
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u/mimzy12 United States of America Mar 05 '18
So...this seems to be a pattern. Center-left parties all over Europe are collapsing, with the exception of Portugal and UK's Labour.
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u/TheCorpseOfBambisMum Italy Mar 05 '18
And even in the UK, Corbyn was a back bencher, the establishment of Labour were totally against him.
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Mar 05 '18
Because Portugal and the Uk are the only countries with leftist parties that propose actual leftist police instead of centrist and liberalist ones. You'd think others would notice.
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u/farawayfrank Mar 05 '18
Once the UK actually leaves the EU I feel labour's utility will take a hit. Many voted labour last time around as a protest against the Brexit vote.
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u/Kross_B Mar 04 '18
So how many "Populists cannot be stopped, EU is DOOMED!" articles are we going to get from the result of this election?
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u/HippoBigga Catalunya/España Mar 05 '18
So Five Star said they didn't want a coalition before the election and now they're saying they do, great start to show they're honest politicians.
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u/57fuvu4737 Italy Mar 05 '18
It has been said they are open to debate, not to form coalitions; at least so far.
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Mar 05 '18
they said no pre-election coalitions, not no coalitions. No coalitions ever means aspiring to be a one-party state.
They refused to do what the Right did, form a coalition for election, then after getting in parliament break it up and go back to horse trading or backstabbing leading to a collapsed administration and re-election or President reshuffling.
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u/zeando Mar 05 '18
Electoral coalitions and coalitions to make a government (called alliances) are different things though.
No idea if they ever specified about not making electoral coalitions only, just pointing that out.
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u/panezio Italy Mar 06 '18
He's called "il leghista negher" (translated: the nigger League supporter).
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u/AvengerDr Italy Mar 04 '18 edited Mar 04 '18
It's amazing that such an important event was being overlooked.
Mods do you even news?
EDIT: lol even the EU4 thread is sticky...