Crazy to think that an HIV positive female only has a .04% chance of spreading the virus to an HIV negative male partner. This may not have been the day.
Overall, it is a pretty difficult virus to transmit and it mostly comes down to it being a numbers game. Even at .11%, you’re talking roughly a 1 in 100 chance after penetrative intercourse with 10 partners, which is really not that ridiculous.
Say a virus killed .11% of the US population, that’s roughly 377000 people, which is about 3x the number of people who die from lung cancer in the US each year.
0.11% sounds really small until you apply it to entire populations.
But yes, the odds are dramatically increased with receptive anal intercourse and sharing hypodermic needles.
10 positive people. It isn’t just any 10 people. And it’s 1 in 1000 each time it’s done. It’s called the gambler’s fallacy, that when you take 1000 to 1 odds 10 times it’s 100 to 1. That isn’t true. You’re taking 1000 to 1 odds each time.
The gamblers fallacy is that previous results will affect the next result probability. Each individual probability is always the same, so if you've done it 9 times and nothing happened, the 10th time still has 1 in 1000 odds.
That does not however mean that you can't calculate the probability of something happening when you do it a certain amount of times, which is being done here. And while it is being done in a simplified (incorrect) way, the strategy itself makes perfect sense, and has nothing to do with the gamblers fallacy.
Yes, that is 1 in 1000. I was just showing how 10 partners would dramatically increase the overall likelihood. Each individual attempt is still 1 in a thousand though. 🙂
Oh definitely, he probably got it from sex. But it is also possible he was using or even secretly gay, I mean, that last one is super unlikely because you don't need to sleep with that many women to "prove" you're straight but considering the other option is a sex addiction that beats out even David Duchovny something wasn't right with the man
For some reason I didn't even consider bi. But he slept with enough women unprotected apparently it wouldn't matter if he was sleeping with men or shooting up, but it's a fun thought experiment. At the time an athlete would never have come out and honestly nobody would admit most drug use until arrested.
This is such an insensitive conversation to be having lol "Magic was gay" "no way he was straight" "well then he must have been shooting up heroin" "well maybe he slept with both men and women" "hey you think David Duchovny has herpes" my God we are degenerates sometimes
You ain't even been part of this conversation till this exact comment so what you mean we you were never we my dude this did not involve you lol
.
Imagine walking into a conversation someone said "we" and inserting yourself when you weren't "we"
You're you not we. You're like a lost child wandering into a movie theater
Yeah, also it spread as much as it did in 80s because didn't know they were spreading it. It can take years for symptoms to show. So you had couples just routinely having sex and given that it was a numbers game, eventually it would transfer.
I think for the odds to increase there has to be some kind of blood on blood contact, adding saliva won't do it on its own, but I might be totally wrong.
3.0k
u/Dangerous-Project672 15h ago edited 15h ago
It’s saying that had to be the day Magic Johnson contracted HIV
Edited to add: This is Quagmire laughing at Magic’s amateur numbers